Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Some more interesting stuff said today, starting with Barnier saying that a transitional period isn't a given and setting out where the UK is falling short.  No doubt this will have wound up the Brexiteers in the Conservative party and, given what he said about border checks between Ireland and NI, some politicians North and South of the border.  I suppose the response by Davis was to be expected.

However, while I'm a confirmed Remainer (or as Resurrection would no doubt prefer, a "Remoaner"), on this I think Barnier is ignoring a big and immovable issue.  While in political and legal terms he might be right i.e. if the 'deal' doesn't offer what the EU wants on nationality, precedence to EU courts etc which might mean the EU member states rejecting the deal and the Art 50 'clock' doesn't stop, theoretically and legally the UK leaves the EU on time and should be treated by the EU as a 'third country'.  This implies a lot like WTC tariffs.  But the point I think he is missing is the practical one.  For the EU to treat all trade with the UK as 'third country' it needs frontier controls and checks over that trade. My guess is that the ports and airports within the EU that handle the bulk of trade with the EU won't be remotely ready to facilitate such checks by the time the Art 50 period elapses. The facilities, systems, logistics etc needed to implement such controls will take years to put in place and that seems to me to justify a transition period regardless of any other issue . No legal or political imperative is going to overcome that practical difficulty.  

And the result will be that UK will lose the vast majority of export trade to the EU (this of course adding to the disoncentive of UK goods costing more in EU).

Bad in anyone’s book. And that is why many businessess are reconsidering whether to continue being based in UK. More loss.

i think Lord Lisvane’s point made in the video link I posted in my last email is very apt.

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

The thing is, ladies and gentlemen, the arguments you are regurgitating are the ones that were or should have been made at the time of the Referendum. The nonsense that the EU might inhibit trade with the UK should be the final nail in the EU's coffin, but we already know that the Remoaners are blinkered if not blinded in their affiliation to the grand Kleptocracy.

Their, the EU's,  utter detachment from any form of economic reality should be self evident to any sentient human being with a "remaining"  firing neurone. The fact that they don't simply exemplifies the fact  that  everything about the EU is political at the expense of economically destroying the member states. Even the most ardent Remainer must by now recognise that fact.

You have a delightfully colourful way of expressing your arguments, Resurrection 

But........even if you were right about the 'detachment from economic reality' of the EU senior officials and political leaders, and I'm not saying you are,  big exporting/importing businesses in the rest of the EU are as hard-nosed as those in the UK and they would not put up with such chaos being imposed by such a deal. While the EU officials might be mostly immune to pressure from business, the political leaders in Germany, France etc etc most certainly aren't.    

MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

I think you’re over estimating the power and influence Barnier has.

He’s only a negotiator. He’s paid to implement the wishes of the remaining EU countries. I doubt very much they’ve discussed/agreed at the present time, what the UK need to give, in order to get a transition period which allows free trade.

If the discussion does come round to the immediate implementation of border controls, there a few EU big hitters that won’t let it happen.

Resurrection posted:

the fact that they don't simply exemplifies the fact  that  everything about the EU is political at the expense of economically destroying the member states.

Isn’t that what the Tories are doing to the moment to the UK?

And you must admit they are giving the EU a masterclass on how it’s done.

MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

I see what you mean, however is there not the risk that EU will simply export a lot more to outside EU from its own ports, cutting out the UK middleman?

Innocent Bystander posted:
MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

I see what you mean, however is there not the risk that EU will simply export a lot more to outside EU from its own ports, cutting out the UK middleman?

To some extent, I guess they will try but supply chains tend to follow well-used, high capacity routes where the infrastructure and the companies that operate them are well known and can be relied upon to meet tight door-to-door schedules. Re-routing millions of tonnes and items is a huge undertaking. Closing, say, the Channel tunnel and Heathrow (which shifts the most freight by value in the UK) would cause immense problems to shipping routes for transiting consignments.       

Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

The thing is, ladies and gentlemen, the arguments you are regurgitating are the ones that were or should have been made at the time of the Referendum.

And it is not our, the public’s, fault that proper clear realistic information wasn’t presented at the time, but the incompetent idiots who drove the thing, and  on both sides with the mant false claims - and incompetent is the mildest way of putting it.

And that is precisely why, now all the realities are becoming evident, there should be another referendum to say now you know the facts, please confirm that you really want to leave.

 

fatcat posted:
Resurrection posted:

the fact that they don't simply exemplifies the fact  that  everything about the EU is political at the expense of economically destroying the member states.

Isn’t that what the Tories are doing to the moment to the UK?

And you must admit they are giving the EU a masterclass on how it’s done.

I have absolutely no idea what the Tories are up to, and, by the way, neither do you. For me, the elimination of the waste of space that is the EU is my primary concern. Corbyn comes next....

Innocent Bystander posted:
MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

I see what you mean, however is there not the risk that EU will simply export a lot more to outside EU from its own ports, cutting out the UK middleman?

Seriously IB, are you on the same planet. Most of what the UK exports passes through Rotterdam and will continue to do so post Brexit. Anything otherwise will be unacceptable to Holland as well as the UK. Inextricably  bound cones to mind, and that won't go away for a Bernie or U

MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Resurrection posted:
Huge posted:
MDS posted:

You have a delightfully colourful way of expressing your arguments, Resurrection 

<snip>

... but sadly that's all that's delightful, the substance is largely divorced from any justifiable critical analysis.

Ha! Ha! As is your own, mon brave.🤓

In this particular case...

Guilt as charged m'lud! 

Resurrection posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
MDS posted:

IB I'm not suggesting you are wrong, but regardless of how the balance of trade works out in the long term, in the short term everyone loses out if frontier checks between the EU and UK are imposed upon immediate exit because it would screw up the movement of hundreds of billions worth of trade, some of which simply moves through the UK in transit. The EU and its exporting and importing businesses would suffer greatly from this.  Barnier's posturing seems to ignore this.       

I see what you mean, however is there not the risk that EU will simply export a lot more to outside EU from its own ports, cutting out the UK middleman?

Seriously IB, are you on the same planet. Most of what the UK exports passes through Rotterdam and will continue to do so post Brexit. Anything otherwise will be unacceptable to Holland as well as the UK. Inextricably  bound cones to mind, and that won't go away for a Bernie or U

Sorry, should have been  Juncker or Bernier, a right pair of cretinous oafs if you've ever met one.

Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Rees-Mogg, total idiot. Anyone who thinks him otherwise is just the same. 

Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Rather a disingenuous statement, methinks, or did his parents abandon or disinherit him, leaving him to fund his Eton education out of three paperrounds and a Saturday job?

 

 

Innocent Bystander posted:
Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Rather a disingenuous statement, methinks, or did his parents abandon or disinherit him, leaving him to fund his Eton education out of three paperrounds and a Saturday job?

 

 

Doesn't matter how or where he went to school, his accumulated wealth is self made. Ironically, he began with the Lloyd George Emerging Wealth Fund before leaving that to head up Somerset Capital Fund. He is reckoned through all of this to be worth more than £100 million. On becoming an MP he stepped down as head of Somerset. I'm afraid that there is a great big ignorant hole below your own posting. Daddy did nor leave him £100 million. 

As usual, Remoaners are selective if not completely defective with their facts.

Resurrection posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Rather a disingenuous statement, methinks, or did his parents abandon or disinherit him, leaving him to fund his Eton education out of three paperrounds and a Saturday job?

 

 

Doesn't matter how or where he went to school, his accumulated wealth is self made. Ironically, he began with the Lloyd George Emerging Wealth Fund before leaving that to head up Somerset Capital Fund. He is reckoned through all of this to be worth more than £100 million. On becoming an MP he stepped down as head of Somerset. I'm afraid that there is a great big ignorant hole below your own posting. Daddy did nor leave him £100 million. 

As usual, Remoaners are selective if not completely defective with their facts.

1) I didn’t say or suggest he was left £100 million, however he did have a very privileged upbringing that the vast majority of people do not and which will have made him the man he became, a distinct advantage over someone born and brought up penniless. Also, though this is purely conjecture, it is very possible that his first business ventures were established with a bit more than what he had saved out of earnings from a paper round or Saturday job,  out of which he had had to fund anything beyond the clothes, food and home.

2) My opinion and assessment of him have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit - I simply see him for what he is.

3) I don’t pretend to know all the facts, in Vrexit or indeed anything, but I am never deliberately selective with facts, weighing up what I know to make decisions and come to conclusions, so I trust you did not include me in that last statement: if you did then you owe me an apology.

I don't think Rees Mogg is an idiot. From what I've seen of him being interviewed and speaking in the House he appears to be highly intelligent and very thoughtful. I do though think he's completely out-of-touch with modern society and unsuited to lead the Conservative party.  

MDS posted:

I don't think Rees Mogg is an idiot. From what I've seen of him being interviewed and speaking in the House he appears to be highly intelligent and very thoughtful. I do though think he's completely out-of-touch with modern society and unsuited to lead the Conservative party.  

I agree fully apart from having no view on the last point.

From what little I have seen of him I do have some respect for him and have the impression that he is straight (in the asexual sense) and appears honest in his views, which is more than I can say for my impression of many politicians, and I suspect he may be a thoroughly nice chap.

But none of this means his views are the right ones for the country, which after all is the subject of the conversation.

Rees-Mogg would be an ideal Tory leader. He’d split the party, the Government would fall, and we’d have a Labour victory in the inevitable election. It would all need to happen quickly though, to give enough time to halt Brexit.

With more information emerging every day - the impact on GDP, the Irish border etc. etc., it’s just astonishing that the supporters of Brexit aren’t having second thoughts, especially as people like Boris never supported Brexit in the first place. There seems to be a belief that the nice Mrs May will get a deal that avoids all the potential pitfalls of leaving and which the EU are happy with. It’s just not going to happen. If Rees-Mogg is so clever, why doesn’t he see it? Just like there is no magic money tree, there is no magic deals tree either. How can these people knowingly damage the economy? With up to £2000 being lost per head, think of all the public services that could be paid for. And without being part of the EU, what do we do when the US insist we buy their chlorinated chickens and steroid stuffed beef, in order to agree the wonderful trade deal? It’s all bonkers. 

Hungryhalibut posted:

 

And without being part of the EU, what do we do when the US insist we buy their chlorinated chickens and steroid stuffed beef, in order to agree the wonderful trade deal? It’s all bonkers. 

But it won't be the architects of the fall that have to suffer that, only the little people (the ones who pay taxes).

Resurrection posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

Hasn't G Soros just donated £400k towards the campaign to get a second referendum?  

Maybe Rees Mogg and the others hard-line Brexiteers will now label Soros as a Corbynite.  

Is Rees-Mogg, a hero in my book, now a Remainers anti-Christ? A meek mannered, logical, self made man is now to be a Remoaning hate figure? Desperate stuff!

Rather a disingenuous statement, methinks, or did his parents abandon or disinherit him, leaving him to fund his Eton education out of three paperrounds and a Saturday job?

 

 

Doesn't matter how or where he went to school, his accumulated wealth is self made. Ironically, he began with the Lloyd George Emerging Wealth Fund before leaving that to head up Somerset Capital Fund. He is reckoned through all of this to be worth more than £100 million. On becoming an MP he stepped down as head of Somerset. I'm afraid that there is a great big ignorant hole below your own posting. Daddy did nor leave him £100 million. 

As usual, Remoaners are selective if not completely defective with their facts.

Is it not a little sad that some people appear to be shallow enough to equate the accumulation of wealth with 'greatness', and appear to be of the opinion that wealth itself is an attribute to be admired beyond all else?

If this is the case, then perhaps Rees-Mogg is not the person we should be touting as our next PM. After all, £100m is a rather paltry sum, is it not, given that the bar has been raised by a certain leader in the US? Perhaps we should be looking at the likes of Richard Branson instead. Now, he has accumulated a much more creditable amount of wealth than Rees-Mogg, and this despite an even less privileged upbringing than that of the unfortunate Rees-Mogg whose Daddy was apparently something of a pauper, and only just able to afford to grant him an education at Eton.

         

Resurrection posted:

Seriously IB, are you on the same planet. Most of what the UK exports passes through Rotterdam and will continue to do so post Brexit. Anything otherwise will be unacceptable to Holland as well as the UK. Inextricably  bound cones to mind, and that won't go away for a Bernie or U

The problem is that it’s not just the EU that demands “third country” status for the U.K. following Brexit (without a “deal”).  As I understand it, it is demanded by international law / international trade agreements and the EU would be in breach of those if they don’t treat the U.K. in such a way (unless there is a trade agreement in place).

Some interesting discussion points from all sides. Mogg is not the spawn of the devil and not, as far as I can tell, overly politically ambitious, although, like me, is an ardent Brexiteer.

The facts and figures that Remainers use to "reinforce" their own arguments are completely subjective. The 'facts' used both pre and post Referendum have been proven baseless. The value attached to the thinking a bunch of pencil pushers in the Civil Service is equally risible. 

Having transformed itself from the EEC to the EU, it went from being a semi-sensible economic union to attempting to become a blatant, political federal superstate whose control mechanisms give only a notional glance at democracy. 

Just as Osborne's post Referendum predictions proved nonsensical, the idea that we will suddenly be unable to trade with EU countries is equally nonsense. If The EU really does attempt to punish the UK for leaving, the backlash from the real economic producers will be immense and will have pretty catastrophic consequences for the EU itself.

Anone wanting to worry about economic Armageddon would be much better served looking at global stock markets than the ramblings of Barnier or Juncker.

Hungryhalibut posted:

Rees-Mogg would be an ideal Tory leader. He’d split the party, the Government would fall, and we’d have a Labour victory in the inevitable election. It would all need to happen quickly though, to give enough time to halt Brexit.

<snip>

Very good...

Twisted
Machivellian
And very funny 

I like it, even though I know you really do mean it! 

Question Time was on in the background last night only to hear the UKIP member explain that the only reason we are going to have any hard borders, particularly in Ireland is because the EU is demanding them. Nothing to do with UKIP and Brexiteers wanting to control our own borders etc. Of course if they had their way, we would control the border and then.......  remove all those restrictions unless you are........etc. And the Tory MP desperately trying to say much the same without saying that it was the EU or the Brexiteers fault!

Dear God.  ....Unicorns and fairies 

fatcat posted:

£100 million. I don't believe it.

sounds like yet another brexiteer fictional financial forecast.

The !00 million are you referring to what Reese Mogg was left or what he is worth, he comes from a very wealthy family.

He is my local MP and lives not to far away his father William who served in the RAF was very big in the Newspaper Industry in the sixties and seventies he also purchased some nice properties in the local area then went into politics and held several high positions he was a wealthy man in his own right.

Jacob had a rather privileged upbringing his childhood Nanny is actually the Nanny to Jacob's six children he started dabbling on the stock exchange when he was fourteen (Highly unlikely this was financed from money made from a paper round or stacking supermarket shelves) and went on to make a fortune both here and in Singapore where he worked for some time.

The last estimate I saw of his and his family wealth was well well in excess of a 100 million which probably explains why he was telling us on a recent TV interview that he doesn't bother to claim his MPs expenses.

 

Resurrection posted:
Richard Dane posted:

Please don't just copy and paste an entire article.  Better to paraphrase and include selected pertinent quotes, if you must.

Why?

Do you really need to ask?

A few reasons; Firstly, I'd imagine that The Spectator and the author, Anthony Browne, wouldn't be very happy about a wholesale copy and paste.  There is likely an issue of copyright and at the very least, if you wish to reproduce the article in full elsewhere then you should seek their written permission to do so. Then again, you may well be Anthony Browne, in which case...

Furthermore, it makes it easier for the more casual followers of the thread to follow (and avoids making the thread unwieldy), it shows to the readers here that you have properly read, digested and understood the article in question, and allows you to add your own comment and point of view where appropriate.

And lastly, because I have asked you (nicely) to do so. Thanks.

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