Bitcoin

Simon,

I am certainly aware that fractions of Bitcoin can be purchased, although I do admit that my knowledge of Bitcoin in general is pretty meagre. I have no interest in buying into the concept of crypto-currencies, and so have not bothered to read much about it save for a few headlines and a number of the posts on this forum.

I have no issue whatsoever with (most) people 'investing' in Bitcoin. I am absolutely certain that you, and most others in this forum who are dabbling with Bitcoin, are doing so responsibly, are well aware of the risks associated with your 'investment', and that for you the associated risks are well worth taking. I can also understand the excitement and 'fun' of dabbling in the financial markets in this way. As I mentioned in a previous post, I personally got a lot of pleasure (and made a huge amount of virtual money) from keeping a virtual investment portfolio for a number of years. Luckily the bubble I almost bought into in real life burst, and my investment skills (or lack of) were exposed just before I decided to dabble in the real world with some serious real money. I worked in the Investment arm of a financial services company, but I worked in their IT department and not as a fund manager for a very good reason. I like to think that I was pretty good at my real job, but I readily accept my limitations as an investor and leave this to those who manage my ISAs. I genuinely feel no regret whatsoever (well perhaps just a little) that I didn't invest some real money a little earlier when my virtual portfolio was riding so high. I simply wasn't prepared, and couldn't afford to accept the risks associated with any substantial gamble in the stock market.   

No, my issue is that along the way, a large number of people who probably (unlike you and others on this forum) can't afford to do so will probably stake life changing amounts of money in Bitcoin in the mistaken belief that it is a one way bet. I just don't believe that Bitcoin will be an endless well of money for the masses out there in the real world. However, I am not totally opposed to gambling, and I occasionally have a little flutter on the UK and Euro lotteries. I am also very happy to admit that the risks involved in my 'investment' in the lotteries are considerably higher than those if I chose to invest my money in Bitcoin, but I am more than happy to see most of my money go to charity, and only a little grudging towards those who actually win the prizes.  

As for your comment about those who focus on the negatives in this world, I take your point. There are many positive things out there, and I am not quite as much of a pessimist as I might sometimes appear from my posts.  However, there are some very major negatives out there at the moment, and whilst dabbling in Bitcoin might be fun, I wouldn't really view it as being particularly a 'good news' story.

Now, Robert Plant performing some of the great Zeppelin tracks brilliantly in his current tour, or Richard Thompson continuing to perform to his consistently high standard are good news, and if only Pink Floyd were to reform (sadly without Rick Wright), then my optimism would know no bounds.     

Christopher_M posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

It's great time in history because Bitcoin is succeeding in taking on the central banks control over mankind. Yes many things suck in current world affairs but at least Bitcoin offers some hope. I hate the Trump and Brexit shit shows. I'm unemployed/unemployable and have nothing to do with my time. Cryptocurrencies has become a hobby to keep my mind engaged and positive.

Most cryptos will fail and people will lose their value. I do believe Bitcoin will continue to grow over the long term.

My intention is to continue to update re Bitcoin and cryptos. My hope is to educate other like minded people. I believe several individuals have gotten into cryptos at least in part due to this thread. Maybe we will ultimately lose everything nobody knows for sure. I am convinced Bitcoin is a better opportunity than equities, bonds, or fiat.

If (when) Bitcoin crashes I'll also write about that.

I really do not care if you or 99% of the world thinks I'm a fool. I also am not going to lose a minute of sleep worrying that anybody on this forum is missing out on the greatest technological revolution of our generations. I am just here to talk about a topic for which I have some passion.

So would it be true to say that you are attracted to what we might call disruption, the mere fact that in this case it is disruption of currency (or central banking) is almost irrelevant?

My question is not a criticism, instead a means of understanding.

I spent my career developing financial trading software systems for large banks. I also spent a lot of time reflecting on the questions "what is money? Why do people now need to 'invest' for retirement when my parents' generation 'saved' for their retirements? How is it morally acceptable for central banks to steal wealth from savers (like my parents) and hand it to the ultra wealthy/materialists?" After years thinking/talking about these questions, I recognized the real evil in our current banking system.

I lost almost everything of financial value as a direct result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. I had no income for over 3 years. These years forced liquidation of my equities, sale of my condo at a huge loss, and depletion of my "savings". If that wasn't bad enough, it also ended my career. How could this happen to me? I am educated, driven, responsible and frugal (I've always lived the lifestyle of a person with a small fraction of my income.)  Even though I had accumulated significant wealth and no debt other than a mortgage, it still wasn't enough. When I sold my condo I had to provide a cashiers check for $xxx,xxx to cover the difference between what I owed and the proceeds of the sale. You might think I got one of those 0 down payment loans or some other nonsense. In fact I put 20% down and paid every month for 10 years. At that point I was essentially broke. What had I done to deserve potential homelessness and a life of poverty? Nothing. I did everything I was supposed to do as a responsible person and failed. If banker-fraudsters had acted morallly I'd still have my "old life". 

Having lost my home, career, and wealth; I vowed to minimize my future interaction with this corrupt system. As if by fate this was around the same time I learned about Bitcoin. The idea of a democratic deflationary currency outside the control of bankers perfectly meshed with my worldview.

I guess, to answer your question, I am not an anarchist or into disruption in general. I just hate how the bankers of the world have destroyed millions of lives all for their personal enrichment. At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords. My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin. 

In summary... f*ck the banks and their corruption.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, thanks for your reply... and as I type there is a little *bit* of a correction going on.... Cryptos don’t always go up in value  against fiat..... and there has been a massive drop in the last hour...

You've got to love it when a "massive drop in price" still has Bitcoin > $10,000.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, your point about bragging is fair enough... however so called buying into bitcoin at higher prices is kind of meaningless... you buy into it at a relative level if you wish. Bitcoin is just a title, you can buy tiny fractions of it and it’s value becomes relative to what you bought that fraction at.. So it’s absolute price is kind irrelevant, it’s the relative price difference. I am sure it doesn’t apply to you, but I discovered yesterday several people I spoke to thought you could only buy bitcoin in discrete whole numbers.. like coins... of say $10k a piece, but of course that is not the case... I could buy $50 if I want.

I actually think there there are many positive things in the world, we kind of take for granted and seem to dwell on the negatives... perhaps it’s our media, but I don’t understand the morbid fascination with the negatives in the world... perhaps because good news is not considered really news worthy for some.

That is actually the #1 problem preventing mass adoption. One of the first things I tell people is that "You don't need to buy a whole Bitcoin. You can buy as little as $1 worth at a time."

Kevin Richardson posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, thanks for your reply... and as I type there is a little *bit* of a correction going on.... Cryptos don’t always go up in value  against fiat..... and there has been a massive drop in the last hour...

You've got to love it when a "massive drop in price" still has Bitcoin > $10,000.

To be fare, it did drop some way below $10k. But is back above there this morning... such is the way of crypto/fiat ratios.

 

Kevin Richardson posted:

I" lost almost everything of financial value as a direct result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. I had no income for over 3 years. These years forced liquidation of my equities, sale of my condo at a huge loss, and depletion of my "savings". If that wasn't bad enough, it also ended my career. How could this happen to me?" 

I have no idea how this could happen to you, because I have no idea how you invested your money nor of the risk profile you chose to adopt whilst investing your money. However, I do sympathise with your predicament of the time.

"I recognized the real evil in our current banking system".

However, your reaction and your current approach sounds and feels a little bit more like that of a vendetta or religious crusade or support of outright anarchy rather than logic. Strange that I almost certainly come from a much more left wing oriented position and background than yourself, but I seem to be the one defending (at least to some extent) our banking systems. Yes, there are no doubt some corrupt people engaged in the banking system, and those at the top pay themselves obscene amounts of money, but you cannot possibly claim that the banking system itself and everyone involved in it is corrupt because of this.

"I spent my career developing financial trading software systems for large banks. I also spent a lot of time reflecting on the questions "what is money?"

I too spent much of my career designing, selecting and implementing financial trading and other investment related software and networks in a financial company that was very risk averse. I saw little, if any, evidence of inherent corruption of any sort in the system, and whilst I am of the opinion that distribution of wealth in our society and worldwide should be much more equitable I am certainly not in favour of anarchy. The big problem in my view was that institutions and those who invested the big money were attracted by the potential lucrative gains in the derivatives markets, but did not fully understand (because systems at the time were not capable of analysing them) the extremely complex underlying risks of some of these investment instruments. It wasn't a problem of overt corruption, just simply greed (that's the way the 'Free Market' works) and simple lack of knowledge or incompetency - take your pick. I spent much of my last few years helping to implement risk analytics and systems that would help avoid similar issues in the future.     

"My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin".

I am sorry, but this is a sweeping and inherently flawed view of the world in general and the banking system (certainly in the UK and Europe) in particular. Perhaps you feel that you were ripped off by an individual or an individual institution, but this is not the basis on which most people should decide to invest in Bitcoin, unless they are happy to accept the massive inherent risks. 

"At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords"

You obviously hold a massive grudge, and are free to adopt this (in my opinion) misguided and even potentially rather unhealthy view of the world. Who knows? In 5 or 10 years time you may be a millionaire or multi-millionaire as a result of your investment in Bitcoin whilst I am content to sit back and enjoy my retirement with my rather more conservative and relatively risk free approach to the investment of my meagre funds. However, I would personally be wary of anyone urging me to throw in all my chips to the Bitcoin section of the roulette wheel just to hit back at our "evil banker overlords".  

Yes, dabble with Bitcoin if you want and potentially make some money. However, don't throw all your eggs in the one basket and certainly don't do so on the basis of this is a way to "f*** the banks, the bankers and their corrupt systems", and to hell with the consequences.

Dozey posted:

Is there such a thing as capital gains tax in the US?

Yeah, it is pretty mild, though. Tops out at 20%. Gains from active trading might however be considered income, rather than capital gains. Bitcoin is more like trading FX than equity or real-estate investment.

Kevin Richardson posted:
 

 

In summary... f*ck the banks and their corruption.

Although my experience was war less devastating, the effects of part of the financial world connected with banks caused my significant loss - I count myself fotunate that it was not something on which I depended, with only 'extra' investment involved, though the result was destruction of my carefully planned  early retirement, now having to work 10 years more - but it has been something I have been able to ride through. 

Bitcoin is something I've never even looked at, thinking of it primarily as a currency for computer gamers, gamblers and crooks (the latter because I am informed it is the medium by which computer hackers are sent ransom money untraceably). I've ignored this thread up to now, but maybe will have a little read to see if I can understand more.

In the meantime, anyone know the collective nown for bankers? 

 

 

...a wunch

MangoMonkey posted:

The IRS recently asked one of the exchanges (coinbase) to provide names of folks who have moved more than 20K. if the exchange complies (lawsuit), I suspect gameover for crypto currencies.

Not again, there have been so many game overs for Cryptos over the last 10 years it feels like ground hog day... which of course why they are gaining popularity, they are resilient to this centralised control...and of course it was the financial crash and financial market corruption that encouraged the development of alternate distributed currencies a decade ago. The worst thing for Cryptos is I suspect mainstream establishment adoption.

Simon

winkyincanada posted:

I've asked my broker to advise if any of the funds I hold start to talk about taking a crypto position so that I can sell them immediately.

Does that extend to the real crypto market of block chain technology which is fast developing distributed computing and transactional technology.... the purchase and selling of cryptos is one tiny albeit easy to understand from a layman’s point of view aspect of Cryptos. In the UK blockchain technology is one of the fastest growing IT research and development sectors. Go back to the mid and early 90s and it was exactly the same for the web, which of course was then apparently used only for one thing, for accessing and sending pornography

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:
winkyincanada posted:

I've asked my broker to advise if any of the funds I hold start to talk about taking a crypto position so that I can sell them immediately.

Does that extend to the real crypto market of block chain technology which is fast developing distributed computing and transactional technology.... the purchase and selling of cryptos is one tiny albeit easy to understand from a layman’s point of view aspect of Cryptos. In the UK blockchain technology is one of the fastest growing IT research and development sectors. Go back to the mid and early 90s and it was exactly the same for the web, which of course was then apparently used only for one thing, for accessing and sending pornography

Blockchain is fine. Investing that technology is fine. Investing in companies that use it to make efficient and safe transfers is also fine. I just don't want hold crypto-currency itself as an "investment".

Hmack posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

I" lost almost everything of financial value as a direct result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. I had no income for over 3 years. These years forced liquidation of my equities, sale of my condo at a huge loss, and depletion of my "savings". If that wasn't bad enough, it also ended my career. How could this happen to me?" 

I have no idea how this could happen to you, because I have no idea how you invested your money nor of the risk profile you chose to adopt whilst investing your money. However, I do sympathise with your predicament of the time.

"I recognized the real evil in our current banking system".

However, your reaction and your current approach sounds and feels a little bit more like that of a vendetta or religious crusade or support of outright anarchy rather than logic. Strange that I almost certainly come from a much more left wing oriented position and background than yourself, but I seem to be the one defending (at least to some extent) our banking systems. Yes, there are no doubt some corrupt people engaged in the banking system, and those at the top pay themselves obscene amounts of money, but you cannot possibly claim that the banking system itself and everyone involved in it is corrupt because of this.

"I spent my career developing financial trading software systems for large banks. I also spent a lot of time reflecting on the questions "what is money?"

I too spent much of my career designing, selecting and implementing financial trading and other investment related software and networks in a financial company that was very risk averse. I saw little, if any, evidence of inherent corruption of any sort in the system, and whilst I am of the opinion that distribution of wealth in our society and worldwide should be much more equitable I am certainly not in favour of anarchy. The big problem in my view was that institutions and those who invested the big money were attracted by the potential lucrative gains in the derivatives markets, but did not fully understand (because systems at the time were not capable of analysing them) the extremely complex underlying risks of some of these investment instruments. It wasn't a problem of overt corruption, just simply greed (that's the way the 'Free Market' works) and simple lack of knowledge or incompetency - take your pick. I spent much of my last few years helping to implement risk analytics and systems that would help avoid similar issues in the future.     

"My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin".

I am sorry, but this is a sweeping and inherently flawed view of the world in general and the banking system (certainly in the UK and Europe) in particular. Perhaps you feel that you were ripped off by an individual or an individual institution, but this is not the basis on which most people should decide to invest in Bitcoin, unless they are happy to accept the massive inherent risks. 

"At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords"

You obviously hold a massive grudge, and are free to adopt this (in my opinion) misguided and even potentially rather unhealthy view of the world. Who knows? In 5 or 10 years time you may be a millionaire or multi-millionaire as a result of your investment in Bitcoin whilst I am content to sit back and enjoy my retirement with my rather more conservative and relatively risk free approach to the investment of my meagre funds. However, I would personally be wary of anyone urging me to throw in all my chips to the Bitcoin section of the roulette wheel just to hit back at our "evil banker overlords".  

Yes, dabble with Bitcoin if you want and potentially make some money. However, don't throw all your eggs in the one basket and certainly don't do so on the basis of this is a way to "f*** the banks, the bankers and their corrupt systems", and to hell with the consequences.

 

Fiat currency IS the corruption. Central banks give/steal wealth by manipulating interest rates/money supply. You need to recognize how this manipulation impacts our financial lives. Of course you've never seen that first hand. Most people either do not care or simply determined it is an immutable part of life.

I'm sure your company/co-workers were not evil and honest law-abiding types. My clients were not evil. [I have, however, witnessed unethical yet bizzarely legal behavior in the name of profits.] I am not evil. I was just a guy with a vision for a new way to trade mortgage backed securities. The software I created was not evil. The software just did what I told it to do. My clients used my software to trade billions of $ CMOs. Everybody involved was happy, not evil, and creating wealth. We were all just cogs in this machine. The corruption started at the top [central banks] and by the time we were involved, everything looked legitimate. We were just living the so called American dream. Until it all came crashing down. Did my software fail? No but a decade of my life's work was destroyed overnight. My business was ruined.

"I recognized the real evil in our current banking system".

However, your reaction and your current approach sounds and feels a little bit more like that of a vendetta or religious crusade or support of outright anarchy rather than logic. Strange that I almost certainly come from a much more left wing oriented position and background than yourself, but I seem to be the one defending (at least to some extent) our banking systems.

The logic is simple. Cut out the central banks, wall street, and other "insiders" from a currency that allows its value to be determined by a real free market.

In the USA I'm considered a leftist because I support freedom, equal protection under the law, human rights, and universal health care. It is sad that so many Americans either hate freedom or have no idea what it means to be free. As proof, look at our nations health insurance scam. A large minority of the population voted, in part, to ensure health insurance is only available to people working for large organizations. [FYI Health Insurance in the US is a legalized protection racket. Here a trip to the hospital can cost $50,000, $500,000, $5,000,000 or whatever they decide to charge you for their services. If you do not have insurance, the hospital will eventually just take everything you have. In 2013 the ACA ["ObamaCare"] severed the absolute connection between employment and health insurance. (Yes... in the US most people get health insurance through their employers. Prior to ACA, if you were a small business, self-employed, or unemployed, you were thrown to the health care wolves. We had this insidious "health insurance slavery" system that most people never questioned. How much freedom does a person have if she can never leave her corporate job because a family member might someday get sick?)]

"My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin".

I am sorry, but this is a sweeping and inherently flawed view of the world in general and the banking system (certainly in the UK and Europe) in particular. Perhaps you feel that you were ripped off by an individual or an individual institution, but this is not the basis on which most people should decide to invest in Bitcoin, unless they are happy to accept the massive inherent risks. 

I was not "ripped off" in the normal sense. All of us have had our wealth stolen through artificially low interest rates. That is what central banks do. These low rates literally take value from savers and transfers it to consumers/speculators. How is this view flawed? The USD is in real trouble over the long term. Everybody should hedge against it. [GBP also does not look promising.]

"At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords"

You obviously hold a massive grudge, and are free to adopt this (in my opinion) misguided and even potentially rather unhealthy view of the world. Who knows? In 5 or 10 years time you may be a millionaire or multi-millionaire as a result of your investment in Bitcoin whilst I am content to sit back and enjoy my retirement with my rather more conservative and relatively risk free approach to the investment of my meagre funds. However, I would personally be wary of anyone urging me to throw in all my chips to the Bitcoin section of the roulette wheel just to hit back at our "evil banker overlords".  

I do not "hold a massive grudge." I simply believe individuals should not be coerced into "investing" for long term financial goals. People should be able to create wealth through their work and preserve that wealth without having to gamble on the stock market. Bitcoin is extremely volatile at the moment but if it succeeds, the volatility will eventually dramatically decrease. So yes I am gambling with my financial future but Bitcoin is an ethical currency and I will support it even if that means I lose the majority of my wealth in the process. Morally I want to do what I can to make the future a better place for all. A democratic, decentralized, and deflationary currency gives people a real option for wealth preservation. I want to get back to the time when saving was a realistic option. The status quo only works for the top 10%.

Ok I am guilty of occasionally engaging in hyperbole on the inter-webs. Nobody should put everything into bitcoin.

If you lived in the USA you would see how our existence is becoming more nightmarish every day. I just saw an article talking about how 30% of all jobs in the USA will be made obsolete within 10 years(?) due to AI/automation. What kind of future exists for the bottom 90%? Our president/wannabe dictator/cult leader seems hell bent on destroying everything that is good in the world. The number 1 priority for our government is cutting corporate tax rates. With all our problems that is what they want to do. That is great for the 10% that owns 99% of everything but at the expense of the masses.

Anyhoo.... Ive digressed..... I am not an anarchist.

winkyincanada posted:
Dozey posted:

Is there such a thing as capital gains tax in the US?

Yeah, it is pretty mild, though. Tops out at 20%. Gains from active trading might however be considered income, rather than capital gains. Bitcoin is more like trading FX than equity or real-estate investment.

Bitcoin is classified as property by IRS so capital gains @ marginal tax rate. This can be up to 45% depending on the state you file your taxes. Definitely a disincentive to selling.

Kevin Richardson posted:
Christopher_M posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

It's great time in history because Bitcoin is succeeding in taking on the central banks control over mankind. Yes many things suck in current world affairs but at least Bitcoin offers some hope. I hate the Trump and Brexit shit shows. I'm unemployed/unemployable and have nothing to do with my time. Cryptocurrencies has become a hobby to keep my mind engaged and positive.

Most cryptos will fail and people will lose their value. I do believe Bitcoin will continue to grow over the long term.

My intention is to continue to update re Bitcoin and cryptos. My hope is to educate other like minded people. I believe several individuals have gotten into cryptos at least in part due to this thread. Maybe we will ultimately lose everything nobody knows for sure. I am convinced Bitcoin is a better opportunity than equities, bonds, or fiat.

If (when) Bitcoin crashes I'll also write about that.

I really do not care if you or 99% of the world thinks I'm a fool. I also am not going to lose a minute of sleep worrying that anybody on this forum is missing out on the greatest technological revolution of our generations. I am just here to talk about a topic for which I have some passion.

So would it be true to say that you are attracted to what we might call disruption, the mere fact that in this case it is disruption of currency (or central banking) is almost irrelevant?

My question is not a criticism, instead a means of understanding.

I spent my career developing financial trading software systems for large banks. I also spent a lot of time reflecting on the questions "what is money? Why do people now need to 'invest' for retirement when my parents' generation 'saved' for their retirements? How is it morally acceptable for central banks to steal wealth from savers (like my parents) and hand it to the ultra wealthy/materialists?" After years thinking/talking about these questions, I recognized the real evil in our current banking system.

I lost almost everything of financial value as a direct result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. I had no income for over 3 years. These years forced liquidation of my equities, sale of my condo at a huge loss, and depletion of my "savings". If that wasn't bad enough, it also ended my career. How could this happen to me? I am educated, driven, responsible and frugal (I've always lived the lifestyle of a person with a small fraction of my income.)  Even though I had accumulated significant wealth and no debt other than a mortgage, it still wasn't enough. When I sold my condo I had to provide a cashiers check for $xxx,xxx to cover the difference between what I owed and the proceeds of the sale. You might think I got one of those 0 down payment loans or some other nonsense. In fact I put 20% down and paid every month for 10 years. At that point I was essentially broke. What had I done to deserve potential homelessness and a life of poverty? Nothing. I did everything I was supposed to do as a responsible person and failed. If banker-fraudsters had acted morallly I'd still have my "old life". 

Having lost my home, career, and wealth; I vowed to minimize my future interaction with this corrupt system. As if by fate this was around the same time I learned about Bitcoin. The idea of a democratic deflationary currency outside the control of bankers perfectly meshed with my worldview.

I guess, to answer your question, I am not an anarchist or into disruption in general. I just hate how the bankers of the world have destroyed millions of lives all for their personal enrichment. At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords. My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin. 

In summary... f*ck the banks and their corruption.

Thank you for explaining. At first, Kevin, I thought you were some kind of central bank punk. I was wrong. Did you ever consider channeling your evident emotional energy into addressing the morality of a banking system that could knowingly sell mortgages in the Mid-West to those who had no hope of paying them back?

MangoMonkey posted:

The IRS recently asked one of the exchanges (coinbase) to provide names of folks who have moved more than 20K. if the exchange complies (lawsuit), I suspect gameover for crypto currencies.

People just need to pay taxes on their gains. Simple strategy is to only buy and plan to sell @ $1,000,000. At that point Bitcoin should be classified as a regular security and subject to normal capital gains.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, thanks for your reply... and as I type there is a little *bit* of a correction going on.... Cryptos don’t always go up in value  against fiat..... and there has been a massive drop in the last hour...

You've got to love it when a "massive drop in price" still has Bitcoin > $10,000.

To be fare, it did drop some way below $10k. But is back above there this morning... such is the way of crypto/fiat ratios.

 

If you take a longer view.... even a drop to $7,000 would have exceeded "realistic" expectations for 2017. If it can consolidate around 10k at end of year then 2018 might be another big year. If support wanes then a significant correction is likely.

I wish I had some basis to evaluate the impact the futures market will have on price action over the next couple of months. This is the obvious elephant in the room. 

winkyincanada posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok fair enough, I see

There's real value in the system, but only the illusion of value in a Bitcoin.

No more illusory than a USD bank deposit. At least Bitcoin has a potential to preserve wealth over long term. USD intentionally loses purchasing power every day. The FED's greatest concern is that USD isn't losing value fast enough. This is great if you want buy a car or home but kind of stinks when you are retired trying to live on income generated by your savings.

 

Kevin Richardson posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, thanks for your reply... and as I type there is a little *bit* of a correction going on.... Cryptos don’t always go up in value  against fiat..... and there has been a massive drop in the last hour...

You've got to love it when a "massive drop in price" still has Bitcoin > $10,000.

To be fare, it did drop some way below $10k. But is back above there this morning... such is the way of crypto/fiat ratios.

 

If you take a longer view.... even a drop to $7,000 would have exceeded "realistic" expectations for 2017. If it can consolidate around 10k at end of year then 2018 might be another big year. If support wanes then a significant correction is likely.

I wish I had some basis to evaluate the impact the futures market will have on price action over the next couple of months. This is the obvious elephant in the room. 

Agreed. I think that hedge funds will participate in this market, but it is not clear what the impact of such institutionalization will be. My guess is we see an increase in the number of participants willing to hold long positions, but the ease of trading futures could also make it easy for bears to short. Either sentiment should, at least indirectly, have an impact of Bitcoin spot pricing.

I imagine we can draw analogies from other futures markets, but which ones?

Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok fair enough, I see

There's real value in the system, but only the illusion of value in a Bitcoin.

No more illusory than a USD bank deposit. At least Bitcoin has a potential to preserve wealth over long term. USD intentionally loses purchasing power every day. The FED's greatest concern is that USD isn't losing value fast enough. This is great if you want buy a car or home but kind of stinks when you are retired trying to live on income generated by your savings.

 

Money is a promise. A promise to provide valuable goods and services in the future. Nothing more. There is risk that the promise will not be honoured.

I'm not really buying an argument that a Bitcoin is less risky than USD bank deposits. But OK, taking your point on the risk of currency valuation........That's why I hold basically bu&&er-all fiat currency. My portfolio is pretty diversified and there is some exposure to USD and other cash, but it's heavily loaded with equities and real-estate. I'm actually heavily short CAD as my biggest exposure to CAD pricing is my mortgage. I'd be delighted to see that collapse!

If the whole system comes crashing down, do you really think that all the actual, tangible assets will be given to people who have Bitcoin?

Christopher_M posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
Christopher_M posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

It's great time in history because Bitcoin is succeeding in taking on the central banks control over mankind. Yes many things suck in current world affairs but at least Bitcoin offers some hope. I hate the Trump and Brexit shit shows. I'm unemployed/unemployable and have nothing to do with my time. Cryptocurrencies has become a hobby to keep my mind engaged and positive.

Most cryptos will fail and people will lose their value. I do believe Bitcoin will continue to grow over the long term.

My intention is to continue to update re Bitcoin and cryptos. My hope is to educate other like minded people. I believe several individuals have gotten into cryptos at least in part due to this thread. Maybe we will ultimately lose everything nobody knows for sure. I am convinced Bitcoin is a better opportunity than equities, bonds, or fiat.

If (when) Bitcoin crashes I'll also write about that.

I really do not care if you or 99% of the world thinks I'm a fool. I also am not going to lose a minute of sleep worrying that anybody on this forum is missing out on the greatest technological revolution of our generations. I am just here to talk about a topic for which I have some passion.

So would it be true to say that you are attracted to what we might call disruption, the mere fact that in this case it is disruption of currency (or central banking) is almost irrelevant?

My question is not a criticism, instead a means of understanding.

I spent my career developing financial trading software systems for large banks. I also spent a lot of time reflecting on the questions "what is money? Why do people now need to 'invest' for retirement when my parents' generation 'saved' for their retirements? How is it morally acceptable for central banks to steal wealth from savers (like my parents) and hand it to the ultra wealthy/materialists?" After years thinking/talking about these questions, I recognized the real evil in our current banking system.

I lost almost everything of financial value as a direct result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. I had no income for over 3 years. These years forced liquidation of my equities, sale of my condo at a huge loss, and depletion of my "savings". If that wasn't bad enough, it also ended my career. How could this happen to me? I am educated, driven, responsible and frugal (I've always lived the lifestyle of a person with a small fraction of my income.)  Even though I had accumulated significant wealth and no debt other than a mortgage, it still wasn't enough. When I sold my condo I had to provide a cashiers check for $xxx,xxx to cover the difference between what I owed and the proceeds of the sale. You might think I got one of those 0 down payment loans or some other nonsense. In fact I put 20% down and paid every month for 10 years. At that point I was essentially broke. What had I done to deserve potential homelessness and a life of poverty? Nothing. I did everything I was supposed to do as a responsible person and failed. If banker-fraudsters had acted morallly I'd still have my "old life". 

Having lost my home, career, and wealth; I vowed to minimize my future interaction with this corrupt system. As if by fate this was around the same time I learned about Bitcoin. The idea of a democratic deflationary currency outside the control of bankers perfectly meshed with my worldview.

I guess, to answer your question, I am not an anarchist or into disruption in general. I just hate how the bankers of the world have destroyed millions of lives all for their personal enrichment. At this point I'd rather lose everything in support of Bitcoin than contribute a single $ to our banker overlords. My hope is people will finally understand how the current banking system steals their wealth/freedom and will opt out by holding Bitcoin. 

In summary... f*ck the banks and their corruption.

Thank you for explaining. At first, Kevin, I thought you were some kind of central bank punk. I was wrong. Did you ever consider channeling your evident emotional energy into addressing the morality of a banking system that could knowingly sell mortgages in the Mid-West to those who had no hope of paying them back?

Funny but that could have easily happened to me. When we applied to get pre approved for a mortgage, the bank said we qualified for 3x what I was willing to spend. [I never viewed residential real estate as an investment. I was quite confused to learn an average 1 bedroom condo was nearly 500,000 USD. Instincts told me there shouldn't be many people in that market. But I was recently married and my wife wanted us to own our own home. We even followed real estate 101 "buy the worst home in the best neighborhood."] Oddly.... since we lived below our means and saved/invested most of our income, we were able to pay off the entire loan. Many people who bought extravagant homes / lived at or above their means and were unable to pay off their loans had their debt "forgiven" or substantially reduced. In the end many people lost everything we at least walked away with a bit of dignity. Not much but something I suppose.

I do not have a ton of sympathy for people who bought homes they knew they could not afford, put 0% down, and made interest only payments. Even the least sophisticated person would have known it was "too good to be true." However, I can not blame them. None of this would have been possible if Greenspan had not claimed that a national real estate bubble was impossible. He and the FED set the tone that allowed the bankers to commit the various financial crimes that resulted in the financial crisis.

What exactly is a central bank punk?

winkyincanada posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok fair enough, I see

There's real value in the system, but only the illusion of value in a Bitcoin.

No more illusory than a USD bank deposit. At least Bitcoin has a potential to preserve wealth over long term. USD intentionally loses purchasing power every day. The FED's greatest concern is that USD isn't losing value fast enough. This is great if you want buy a car or home but kind of stinks when you are retired trying to live on income generated by your savings.

 

Money is a promise. A promise to provide valuable goods and services in the future. Nothing more. There is risk that the promise will not be honoured.

I'm not really buying an argument that a Bitcoin is less risky than USD bank deposits. But OK, taking your point on the risk of currency valuation........That's why I hold basically bu&&er-all fiat currency. My portfolio is pretty diversified and there is some exposure to USD and other cash, but it's heavily loaded with equities and real-estate. I'm actually heavily short CAD as my biggest exposure to CAD pricing is my mortgage. I'd be delighted to see that collapse!

If the whole system comes crashing down, do you really think that all the actual, tangible assets will be given to people who have Bitcoin?

Long term $1 today in BTC vs $1 bank deposit which provides better odds of preserving purchasing power? By design, USD has 0% chance. BTC has some % > 0.

I don't know what you mean by "the whole system comes crashing down". If its a global nuclear war / end of the world as we knew it situation, currently bitcoin will probably die [along with 100's of millions of people]. Of course in that bleak scenario all paper currencies will become worthless. Tangibles will be exchanged for other tangibles. This is not a scenario for which I've planned beyond owning a gun or two.

A more likely scenario is USD loses its petrodollar monopoly. When this happens the USD will lose most of its value. Hopefully we can avoid a global catastrophe in the next 20-40 years. Bitcoin may continue to grow in market cap over that time frame until it reaches some kind of critical mass whereby it becomes "too big to fail". If it ever reaches that point then it will likely become the primary currency in the post USD world.

Even in a scenario where mass adoption never occurs, the overall acceptance will almost certainly continue to increase. If 5% of the world ever agrees to use bitcoin the price today will seem quaint. Most people agree that the future economic growth is going to occur in Asia. Perhaps just by coincidence Asian countries are currently adopting bitcoin at a much faster rate than the West.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin, I just hope we never have a global nuclear war.

Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok fair enough, I see

There's real value in the system, but only the illusion of value in a Bitcoin.

No more illusory than a USD bank deposit. At least Bitcoin has a potential to preserve wealth over long term. USD intentionally loses purchasing power every day. The FED's greatest concern is that USD isn't losing value fast enough. This is great if you want buy a car or home but kind of stinks when you are retired trying to live on income generated by your savings.

 

Money is a promise. A promise to provide valuable goods and services in the future. Nothing more. There is risk that the promise will not be honoured.

I'm not really buying an argument that a Bitcoin is less risky than USD bank deposits. But OK, taking your point on the risk of currency valuation........That's why I hold basically bu&&er-all fiat currency. My portfolio is pretty diversified and there is some exposure to USD and other cash, but it's heavily loaded with equities and real-estate. I'm actually heavily short CAD as my biggest exposure to CAD pricing is my mortgage. I'd be delighted to see that collapse!

If the whole system comes crashing down, do you really think that all the actual, tangible assets will be given to people who have Bitcoin?

Long term $1 today in BTC vs $1 bank deposit which provides better odds of preserving purchasing power? By design, USD has 0% chance. BTC has some % > 0.

As I said, I don't hold any significant currency, neither USD nor Bitcoin. I have only working capital in the bank. I'm short CAD overall as my mortgage is >> than my cash reserves. Why do I care whether USD is subject to hyperinflation? I obviously care about the the circumstances that lead to that event, but that's not because I hold USD. And that risk wouldn't be alleviated by holding Bitcoin. You really think early Bitcoin investors are going to end up with all the wealth? I have to disagree. As to proposition that BTC is lower risk than USD....my mom always said "if you can't say something nice....."

Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:
winkyincanada posted:
Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok fair enough, I see

There's real value in the system, but only the illusion of value in a Bitcoin.

No more illusory than a USD bank deposit. At least Bitcoin has a potential to preserve wealth over long term. USD intentionally loses purchasing power every day. The FED's greatest concern is that USD isn't losing value fast enough. This is great if you want buy a car or home but kind of stinks when you are retired trying to live on income generated by your savings.

 

Money is a promise. A promise to provide valuable goods and services in the future. Nothing more. There is risk that the promise will not be honoured.

I'm not really buying an argument that a Bitcoin is less risky than USD bank deposits. But OK, taking your point on the risk of currency valuation........That's why I hold basically bu&&er-all fiat currency. My portfolio is pretty diversified and there is some exposure to USD and other cash, but it's heavily loaded with equities and real-estate. I'm actually heavily short CAD as my biggest exposure to CAD pricing is my mortgage. I'd be delighted to see that collapse!

If the whole system comes crashing down, do you really think that all the actual, tangible assets will be given to people who have Bitcoin?

 

I don't know what you mean by "the whole system comes crashing down".

GFC #2 but on steroids. A collapse of asset prices (by the way, this is the opposite of USD losing value - stuff actually gets cheaper - like your condo did), and consequent suppression of economic activity. Banksters using the opportunity to pocket significant wealth.

This all boils down to a couple of basic elements. Banks and National Currencies exist to provide 'a trusted intermediary' in order to enable trade. They are the 'trusted partner' in almost all transactions between people and between countries, simply because the exchange of values involved can rarely happen simultaneously. .   'Trusted' of course means both ethical and sensible I.e will not do anything dishonest or foolish. Looking back on 2008, the World clearly has a problem with its 'Trusted' partners.  Debt is out of control (foolish),  interest rates are manipulated by central bankers rather than being the result of market demands and pressures (dishonest), printing money via 'Quantitative Easing' is a thinly disguised attempt to inflate away national debt (foolish and dishonest), Equity and Bond Markets now reflect Central Bank 'moves' rather than supply and demand, risk and management skill (foolish).  The rich get richer (printing money inflates asset prices) while the poor get poorer.  

Along comes Bitcoin and the other Blockchain based currencies. No trusted partner required thanks to their Worldwide distributed ledgers. No banks needed, no credit cards, no central bank manipulations, no national border restrictions. Millions of people with no access to Bank accounts suddenly have a medium for exchange that is trustworthy...the only requirement a PC or Smart device.  Capital can cross borders freely so is no longer held captive to divisive political agendas.  

Of course Blockchain based currencies are new and they threaten the current order, so can certainly expect a rough ride as Government and Central Banks seek to regain the initiative and impose controls. But if you think that Fiat currencies and associated markets are risk free or even low risk, think again, because they're not.  Having no investment in Blockchain currencies and everything in Fiat currencies is BY FAR the riskiest strategy, as you're completely exposed to all the monetary risk, with no hedge.  Its early days for Bitcoin et al, so they're still cheap, relatively speaking. A small, well diversified stake today could result in a total bust or more wealth than you ever dreamed possible, so its an ideal hedge against the risk Governments and Central Banks pose with their continued uncontrolled borrowing, money printing and devisive policies in support of their political agendas.

Sorry if this covers any previously ploughed territory, but I don't have the fortitude to read 7 pages of Bitcoin debate

 

dave marshall posted:

Thanks Simon,

Phew, who'd have imagined it was so complicated, (or maybe that's just me)?

Initial purchases, via Coinbase were, and remain, perfectly straightforward.

My subsequent purchase of Vertcoin was quite easy, transferring, as Kevin advised, Bitcoin to Bittrex, in order to purchase Vertcoin.

My thinking was that I would then initiate an external Vertcoin wallet, and transfer my Vertcoin to it, but before I can move anything from Bittrex, I find that I now have to go through a confirmation process to upgrade my Bittrex account.

Once I've completed this process, would you also recommend, as Kevin has, the Ledger hardware wallet?

VTC @ $7.90 and appears to have a lot of buy side pressure.

Blackmorec posted:

This all boils down to a couple of basic elements. Banks and National Currencies exist to provide 'a trusted intermediary' in order to enable trade. They are the 'trusted partner' in almost all transactions between people and between countries, simply because the exchange of values involved can rarely happen simultaneously. .   'Trusted' of course means both ethical and sensible I.e will not do anything dishonest or foolish. Looking back on 2008, the World clearly has a problem with its 'Trusted' partners.  Debt is out of control (foolish),  interest rates are manipulated by central bankers rather than being the result of market demands and pressures (dishonest), printing money via 'Quantitative Easing' is a thinly disguised attempt to inflate away national debt (foolish and dishonest), Equity and Bond Markets now reflect Central Bank 'moves' rather than supply and demand, risk and management skill (foolish).  The rich get richer (printing money inflates asset prices) while the poor get poorer.  

Along comes Bitcoin and the other Blockchain based currencies. No trusted partner required thanks to their Worldwide distributed ledgers. No banks needed, no credit cards, no central bank manipulations, no national border restrictions. Millions of people with no access to Bank accounts suddenly have a medium for exchange that is trustworthy...the only requirement a PC or Smart device.  Capital can cross borders freely so is no longer held captive to divisive political agendas.  

Of course Blockchain based currencies are new and they threaten the current order, so can certainly expect a rough ride as Government and Central Banks seek to regain the initiative and impose controls. But if you think that Fiat currencies and associated markets are risk free or even low risk, think again, because they're not.  Having no investment in Blockchain currencies and everything in Fiat currencies is BY FAR the riskiest strategy, as you're completely exposed to all the monetary risk, with no hedge.  Its early days for Bitcoin et al, so they're still cheap, relatively speaking. A small, well diversified stake today could result in a total bust or more wealth than you ever dreamed possible, so its an ideal hedge against the risk Governments and Central Banks pose with their continued uncontrolled borrowing, money printing and devisive policies in support of their political agendas.

Sorry if this covers any previously ploughed territory, but I don't have the fortitude to read 7 pages of Bitcoin debate

 

Excellent summary... we should probably just delete the first 6 pages of this thread and start with your comments.

Guys, there is more to Bitcoin and block chain rather than simply speculative investing/gambling yet that seems to be the majority discussion on this thread... true the recent explosion of interest and new money purchase of cryptos I suspect is mostly from those wanting to get wealthy quick and fear of missing out mentality. and yes I suspect values will rise significantly again in 2018. However I suspect if that is your only motivation with no understanding of the tech and how it is evolving. I feel that is not entirely healthy and could end in tears...... and if it is your motivation, and after all I do enjoy a day at the races as well, please only purchase what you are willing to write off.

 

Despite what I stated above... my little ‘gambling investments’ have rocketed.... there is now the issue of capital gains if you want to cash out... so you might find the following useful https://www.gov.uk/government/...her-cryptocurrencies

The only bit I don’t understand, and feedback here might be useful before I seek professional advice... if an investment is seen as highly speculative/gambling to which cryptos are generally considered, then no CG tax is due (or tax relief) .. so how does one determine .. the HMRC brief gives both options......

Hi Simon. In the US, Bitcoin profits are taxed just like any other capital gains - at higher short term rates if held less than year. No loophole for high level of speculation/gambling. Will be interested to hear what you find out, but would be very surprised if HMG doesn’t want her share of your profits!

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