Diesel Scrappage Scheme

News of the diesel scrappage plans comes as it emerged just 78,778 diesel cars were sold in January, 4.3 per cent less than last year.

Chris Grayling, the Transport Secretary and a close ally of , is believed to support the radical initiative. 

He said: "The irony is that a decade ago, because of concerns about carbon emissions there was a drive towards diesel... that we now know has a different set of negative effects. (Losely translated this reads like "we screwed up !")

“The Department for the Environment is currently preparing, and will launch shortly, our strategy to take tackling the diesel problem to the next level.”

I am about to replace a diesel Merc, probably for a diesel BMW. I am sticking with diesel because these politicians just never seem to get anything right in the long-term. Having been in the family's HGV business before going to University I was well aware of the "dirty" nature of diesel and could never get my head around the drive for diesel cars. But given the economics 15 years ago, it was a no-brainer to buy diesel. My guess is, that in another 15 years we will all be getting incentives to scrap "Electric/Petrol/Biofuel" or whatever, in favour of "Nuclear/gas/water-Vapour"

"laid-back-but-awfully-reassuring"

Original Post
Hungryhalibut posted:

Adding 10p duty to diesel and taking 10p off petrol is surely all that's required. We have abandoned diesel and bought a petrol car. It's lovely and quiet, doesn't shake like a bus and hopefully kills fewer people as it trundles around. 

HMG feel that having deliberately pushed diesel so hard, it would be wrong to punish those of us who fell in line. They are right. 

They feel positive incentives are fairer and more effective. Again, they are right.

my diesel Merc is just as quiet and smooth as my petrol one.

Whether or not governments have go it right or wrong in the past, it's clear that across Europe diesel is dying. I expect a series of increasingly tough measures will be applied over time by governments and regulators. I would imagine car manufacturers are or have considered reducing R&D spending on diesel.

Any scrappage scheme is likely to focus on older diesel cars and be weighted towards buying electric rather than petrol cars. Just replacing diesel with petrol will not solve the long term issues. Some analysts believe we have hit 'peak car' if that's true, it will help reduce total car numbers, which many will see as a good thing.

In a slightly perverse turn of events, we ended up switching one of our cars from electric (BMW i3) to petrol (Mini JCW). Ultimately the i3 it was too dull and not at all fun to drive. 

I have been long against diesel cars for decades. The stuff about cancer, particulates and pollution is not new news. It has always been known and data regularly published and there to be read by anyone who wanted to see it.

And frankly a day in any busy city will easily display how appalling they are. This is on top of the delights in driving a tractor to work.

Govt  and consumers chose to 'believe' what was easiest to believe for economic reasons, The Govt to tax non diesel drivers more and drivers to save a bit on CO2 tax. That only added to my anti diesel stance.

Manufacturers spent billions to design and make 'cleaner' diesels and even then had to lie about the results and that about sums it up, the whole diesel car industry is based on lies. Not sorry to be right all along.

GregW posted:

Whether or not governments have go it right or wrong in the past, it's clear that across Europe diesel is dying. I expect a series of increasingly tough measures will be applied over time by governments and regulators. I would imagine car manufacturers are or have considered reducing R&D spending on diesel.

Any scrappage scheme is likely to focus on older diesel cars and be weighted towards buying electric rather than petrol cars. Just replacing diesel with petrol will not solve the long term issues. Some analysts believe we have hit 'peak car' if that's true, it will help reduce total car numbers, which many will see as a good thing.

In a slightly perverse turn of events, we ended up switching one of our cars from electric (BMW i3) to petrol (Mini JCW). Ultimately the i3 it was too dull and not at all fun to drive. 

We have one at work for running about the airfield. Great acceleration around the perimeter track, but....

....pig ugly, daft rear door system and wouldn't get from Salisbury to Newcastle in less than a week !

Six or seven years ago, Mercedes stated that by 2030 they'd not be producing any cars powered by an internal combustion engine. Ok, they will maybe still make hybrids, but the intent was there years ago. 

 

Well heeled early adopters are buying into electric electric vehicles already, and those of us at the bottom of the food chain just need that little incentive to buy or lease. 

New 'real world driving' consumption tests are about to be introduced and will replace the current method that is so unlike actual usage. This may cause a further upswing in petrol. The disparity between the current and new testing regimes is going to be greatest for turbo-charged cars which will be shown as far less efficient. Obviously that is not unique to diesel but it is interesting that some manufacturers are switching away from the popular light pressure small capacity turbo petrol engines of the last few years to higher capacity but more efficient petrol options. Diesels will always be turbocharged in consumer vehicles.

EU6 diesel standards are tighter than they were but NOx limits are still higher than for EU6 petrol cars. Particulates now have to meet the same standard as petrol. Of course that is when testing a brand new correctly maintained car. Since the MOT does not yet actually test particulates or NOx levels yet then these figures may not reflect the real situation anyway.

It is a complex situation. Do you cause less pollution in a diesel if you have to drive big mileages because of overall reduced consumption? How big a factor is commercial traffic as opposed to personal cars? Lorries etc are not changing to petrol or electric any time soon.

The best way to recue pollution as a country would not be scrappage of old diesels but to reduce speed limits-and we can imagine how well that would go down. Of course having alternatives to road travel and freight would also help. However until our sky is filled with drones delivering all the internet shopping we do, or the fresh fruit and veg we import from far flung places that is not going to happen either.

In general I think habits will change when cost pressures push them, but if you increase diesel prices this will adversely affect commercial traffic more than private cars. is that what we want to do? We'll all end up paying for that.

Bruce

Bruce, I agree with you, and also Euro 6 diesel emissions which is mandatory for all mass produced diesel cars built after September 2015 is a huge reduction on earlier emissions. Even the notorious NOx is now at 80mg/km whilst petrol Euro  6 is at 60mg/km, but other pollutants from diesel are lower. For reference in 2006 the Euro 4 was 250mg/km for NOx. So instead of incredibly shortsightedly demonising all diesel which tends to produce less green house gases per km than petrol which is also crucially important we should look at the age of diesel.. and encourage engines prior to September 2015 and certainly 2006 to be replaced, and discourage petrol engines for majority long distance travel.

Perhaps the answer is diesel /electric hybrids... electric for urban, and diesel for speed / longer distance. Unless the engine is very small, I can't see petrol being at all sensible as the way forward because of its relatively high CO2 emmisions per km and we should be scrapping large petrol engines.

Simon

Yesterday and today, I got just over 70mpg on my 60 mile (30 each way) journey to/from work in the 220 cdi C Class. I tend to cruise along the A34/A303 at about 56mph. No rush, just a steady cruise. Going home I tend to use a country road, again at about 50/55 mph.

If I use the 230TE petrol estate, the same journey uses about 30mpg at similar speeds.

Which is the more environmentally friendly in terms of fuel consumption ?

 

I used to work with Euro fuel emissions with my old job,  & even though our equipment was not road transport & not subject to Euro road transport regulations,  we were a global cmpy & as such required to comply to the same/similar EPA (USA) regulations, &, where applied, higher stnds for California.  Euro & EPA have been broadly aligned since around 2009 & sometime around 2011 agriculture, marine & stationary officially came under the same broad umbrella for emission stnds.    

One of the distraction challenges is the rush to Bio-Diesel,  all well & good for fossil fuel reduction,  problem is its not as efficient as fossil diesel (burn rate slow & burn temperature low) & this raises NOx.  Bo-Diesel is not a great fuel to be honest,  fast atmospheric degradation & engine damage to list a few e.g.'s.   And not wanting to start a side debate,  we used to test our Euro-5 engines on pure diesel as with anything greater than B5 (5% bio-mix) would not pass Euro-5 for NOx.   B20 is becoming common around the world.    UK is around B5,  some B8 & B10 can be found,  but my BMW says nothing more than B5,  problem is where on the fuel pump does it show what the B-ratio it is.  

Although road transport is the major polluter - car, trucks, bus & don't forget rail has a lot of diesel;  keep in mind diesel is not the only source of NOx,  commercial & domestic gas shared 32% of the total in a 2011 London air quality study.

Will my next car be diesel?  probably not & that'll be the first time in 20 odd years.  I'm looking at hybrid but no rush as thats got a ways to go yet.

The BMW 3i that we use at work as a run-about, just isn't a practical car for normal use IMHO.

On a warm sunny day, I guess it could manage 150 miles. But on a cold, frosty night, with all the anciliaries working full=blast, it would struggle to achieve 100 miles.

OK, it has a 2 gallon petrol tank to run the generator, so can squeeze another 50 miles or so on a sunny day, but the 80% battery recharge takes about an hour and a half whilst a full re-charge takes all night !

So just to use it for travel to/from work would mean a nightly re-charge, and a journey up to Newcastle, or Scotland would be totally impractical. How many more Hinkley Points would we need EdF to build for us at £90 per GWh (plus indexing), if we all converted to electric cars ?

I was not thinking that type of hybrid Don,   I had a BMW 330e for a weekend demo,  it's a mix of battery drive & main engine.  It does a claimed 25 miles on battery, & with a fully charged start of journey with a mix of electric pull away & change to main engine its claimed to get ~130mpg around town.  Long distance is much like a normal car,  it did around 35mpg on a 250 mile round trip,  compared to 50mpg for my BMW diesel - so back to your previous post,  I tend to agree.

Don Atkinson posted:

Yesterday and today, I got just over 70mpg on my 60 mile (30 each way) journey to/from work in the 220 cdi C Class. I tend to cruise along the A34/A303 at about 56mph. No rush, just a steady cruise. Going home I tend to use a country road, again at about 50/55 mph.

If I use the 230TE petrol estate, the same journey uses about 30mpg at similar speeds.

Which is the more environmentally friendly in terms of fuel consumption ?

 

Your bicycle  

Friends

Diesel for passenger vehicles is dead....period. Never a big seller here in the US (>1.5% of the light vehicle market) the recent VW cheating scandal will end up being the final nail in the coffin. On top of that, it turns out that most manufacturers (BMW & Mercedes being the exceptions) haven't been meeting diesel standards in the EU either. They haven't been caught because the EU allows manufacturers to contract for their own testing. Scary information for those of you breathing in Europe. The move now will be solidly, electric, hybrid, and enhanced petro engines. Five years or so from now I doubt you'll be able to buy a new diesel car in the major markets of China, U.S. and Europe.

 

Clay,  that is just so USA; & I've worked with/in US with/on diesels for years.   Since mid/late 1900's diesel has always been a better engine than petrol (gasoline) in practically every score,  except (& particularly true of USA markets & why its not been a big seller) noise followed by mnftg cost.   The big plus for diesel is fuel efficiency & ITR the high cost of fuel in Europe has worked for it & the very low cost of the same fuel in USA has worked against it.  The only thing thats changed & is now working against it in Europe, is that it does have higher NOx than gasoline, & that is hard/impossible to eradicate & in recent years we now better understand the NOx health issue - not that gasoline emissions are not a health  problem.    The reasons why diesels have the EPA & Euro compliance issues is very complex,  & not helped by the regularity authorities not truly understanding diesels & applying a gasoline led regulation.   Yes you are correct in diesels (for cars) is in decline,  but until a viable alternative to internal combustion makes itself known, I would not be placing bets on your premise.

Clay Bingham posted:

Friends

Diesel for passenger vehicles is dead....period. Never a big seller here in the US (>1.5% of the light vehicle market) the recent VW cheating scandal will end up being the final nail in the coffin. On top of that, it turns out that most manufacturers (BMW & Mercedes being the exceptions) haven't been meeting diesel standards in the EU either. They haven't been caught because the EU allows manufacturers to contract for their own testing. Scary information for those of you breathing in Europe. The move now will be solidly, electric, hybrid, and enhanced petro engines. Five years or so from now I doubt you'll be able to buy a new diesel car in the major markets of China, U.S. and Europe.

 

 Hardly surprising when fuel is so cheap in the States a bit different when you have been paying in excess of £1.40 per litre  puts a different light on it.

Tony Lockhart posted:

I can only find predictions, not news. 

You are quite right Tony. But that's newpaper reporters for you. The article started with the word "News", and I didn't want to modify it and be accused of creating "Fake News".....My name isn't Donald.................

.......oh bugger ! it is !!

Don Atkinson posted:

If I use the 230TE petrol estate, the same journey uses about 30mpg at similar speeds.

 

Talking of the Mercedes E-class, if public authorities in Europe are turning anti-diesel, Mercedes are going to pull their finger out.  Currently if you want a new petrol E-class saloon or estate in the UK, the smallest and least powerful model available is the E43 AMG - that's a 400bhp, three-litre, twin-turbo job.  Yes, that's not a typo - and there are two even more powerful models above it. Not a model likely to appeal to those who are keen on economy or the environment, I would suggest! 

Typical government meddling (and I don't just mean the current government).  A few years back diesel was the way to go (if you'll forgive my choice of words!), and people were incentivised to go diesel, myself included.  Current diesel drivers must not be penalised for doing what they were told was the right thing.  A badly maintained diesel engine (and indeed petrol) is terrible for the environment.  People must be encouraged to change to petrol (if that is better) not penalised to force change.  I wouldn't have bought a diesel unless encouraged to do so.  However, the latest diesels are much cleaner, and I typically get 50 mpg, that with a 2.0 diesel automatic.  By far the worst pollutants are the many diesel buses - try following one for a few miles, I don't recommend it.

Chris G posted:

 By far the worst pollutants are the many diesel buses - try following one for a few miles, I don't recommend it.

...and the many old, clapped-out white vans which often seem to be belching exhaust muck when accelerating.  

Mike, PCD

Very nice analysis Mike and you're right my comment is so USA, but what did you expect? And, by the way, I have driven VW, Skoda, and Mercedes diesels in Europe and really enjoyed each one. Taxing policies aside, the problem for diesel is that managing  the Nox problem is expensive. VW  could have used the BluTec type system used by Mercedes and BMW but they deemed that system too costly for their market so they cheated, a decision now costing them north of $ 20 bil. Most manufacturers of diesels in Europe cheat and you now have more and more cities objecting to poor/dangerous air quality in no small part due to Nox emmissions from diesel fuels. A tipping point is coming. 

Versed as you are on diesel technology you may foresee possible advancements in diesel technology. Unfortunately, with VW having well and truly screwed the pooch, technology money which was already moving elsewhere i.e hybrid and electric, is now moving even faster in that direction. China , Japan, and the U.S. are not working the diesel issue. They're working hybrid-electric. Europe will want  to follow to remain relevent and satisfy the growing concern about air quality in cities, something a much chastened VW is already doing.

FYI, where I live hybrids and electric vehicles are a increasingly important part of the market. You, no doubt, know about the new version of the Tesla S with a 500 km range and 0-60 in around 4 sec. I saw my first Chevy Bolt on the road the other day. It has a 380 km range and with incentives costs the same as a normal car. Here in Southern California, it is not uncommon to see solar panels on top of a home powering all the house requirements and charging the electric car. The only time you need gas is when you rent a car for longer trips. The world is changing. Now I am a bit of an optimist (helps in this country nowdays) but I don't think I'm far off in my 5 year estimate for the end of diesel cars.

Cheers

 

 

Hi again Clay,  since retirement I am a bit disconnected & most of my new knowledge base is www sourced, but even so my old work colleagues are enthusiastic about new & significant improvements in new engines.  Its my understanding that work is still going on at a pace with diesel, & yes its predominantly in Europe,  but Japan is also in the game.  The big funding, high profile research is focused on new technology & all new fuels.  Lesser funding but more auto cmpy financing is on fine tuning hybrid in its various forms for the sort term future.

At the moment diesel accounts for aprx 50% of annual new car sales in Europe  (I understand its aprx 1% in US) .   As I pointed out in my previous post, emissions controls for NOx & also PM (soot etc) are more complex & going forward will require relatively new technologies & higher costs.   I have just finished reading a paper on the future of diesel & it forecasts diesel market share declining but continuing past 2030 in Europe.   The main problem is diesel engines are significantly cleaner & known future developments are set to continue along that trend.  The question is can they keep up with faster growing & ever tightening clean air & emission regulations,  these appear to be the pace setters & all the rest have to keep up..

Re the "cheating" related issue;  The European Council has moved on this; its accepted diesels generate higher emissions on the road than in laboratory conditions.  Its specifically focused on NOx & have given approval for a new package of rules to build up to new RDE tests. The changes are bought in in two phases starting Sep 2017 & following phase two in 2020.  

Mike-B is very well informed on this.  Europe is really the only major market for light duty Diesel, other than India & S Korea.  The rest of the world is primarily petrol/gasoline for cars.  The USA does sell a lot of Diesel for its personal vehicles, but these are the large SUVs & pick-up trucks that will typically have a Cummins ISB Diesel engine or equivalent 6-7 litre V8 Diesel in them.

At the moment, Diesel is widely perceived to be the Devil's fuel, mainly because of urban, roadside pollution levels in major cities.  Major arterial routes in London have NOx levels typically 150% of EU mandated safe limits.  Oxford Street is on average 400% of World Health Organisation safe limits for NOx.  

Ironically, TfL went through a huge programme to retrofit Diesel particulate traps (DPF) to older buses.  They worked.  The DPFs reduced particulates by 90%+, which is a good thing.  As a side effect though, DPFs need to regenerate from time to time (i.e. burn off the accumulated soot).  This regeneration process then produced a load of NOx.  Net result?  Particulates fell by NOx rose in central London.  Pick your poison, I guess.

Talking of which, Diesel is bad and petrol is good.  Are you sure?  Which would you prefer: a relatively small number of large exhaust particles in the air, or a far larger number of very fine particles?  Diesel makes the former, the latest petrol engines the latter. Oh...

Fortunately, neither is a major contributor to Sulphur Oxides.  For that, we are indebted to the shipping industry, which runs mainly on heavy fuel oil (HFO).  HFO is up to 3% sulphur, though new legislation will bring that down to 0.5%, which is still a lot.

Meanwhile electric cars appear to be saintly.  Until you look at the embedded CO2 emissions involved in manufacturing the batteries, motors and power electronics.  Then a different picture emerges. 

The best solution still seems to be to minimise the amount of energy that we use in the first place, regardless of how we choose to generate it.

Great discussion Mike, Foot Tapper. Learning a lot. Appreciate your taking the time. Mike, I absolutley understand what you're saying and how your friends feel. I just think the die has been cast policy-wise within government and industry. It won't make any difference what they find in the lab in terms of passenger vehicles. Commercial vehicles are another matter.

Bert, enjoy your new BMW. Great car. Finally, I know I'm alone in this but I like the look of the i3

 

Yr right Clay,  the die might be cast,  but I just think the actual die'ing part will take a little longer than you think - in Europe for sure,  & you never know,  the die might have a reverse gear.

But you've burst the agreement luvy stuff bubble when you say you like the i3 -  eeek  yuk -  I was loaned one as a service car when my big lump was in for service,  I just asked the i3 specialist sales guy to explain the technology (I knew the basics already,  was looking for more detail) & "zap" in a flash I had one for the day,  hence my eek yuk comment.   I did like the 330e tho'   

Mike-B posted:

Yr right Clay,  the die might be cast,  but I just think the actual die'ing part will take a little longer than you think - in Europe for sure,  & you never know,  the die might have a reverse gear.

But you've burst the agreement luvy stuff bubble when you say you like the i3 -  eeek  yuk -  I was loaned one as a service car when my big lump was in for service,  I just asked the i3 specialist sales guy to explain the technology & "zap" in a flash I had one for the day,  hence my eek yuk comment.   I did like the 330e tho'   

LOL. Well, I did say I was alone! I am also going  to look at the new BMW e versions.

Clay Bingham posted:

Great discussion Mike, Foot Tapper. Learning a lot. Appreciate your taking the time. Mike, I absolutley understand what you're saying and how your friends feel. I just think the die has been cast policy-wise within government and industry. It won't make any difference what they find in the lab in terms of passenger vehicles. Commercial vehicles are another matter.

Bert, enjoy your new BMW. Great car. Finally, I know I'm alone in this but I like the look of the i3

 

Don't despair too much Clay, I'm sure there is somebody out there somewhere who could share your dream !

I'll let you know if I ever meet that someone

Bert Schurink posted:

I will again get a diesel, when I get my new BMW next year. I love the driving experience of the diesel, and it makes me very very fast...which is a big advantage on the German roads...

Yes, you need fast acceleration between all the construction works indeed.

Difficult to beat the low end shove of a nice torquey Diesel engine for everyday driving. I'm hanging onto mine for a while yet while waiting for the Gov to decide which way they are going with Diesel and what happens with Electric. Big take up of electric will mean some interesting challenges for the grid - interesting times ahead. 

Reading the thread it highlights the different views of pros and cons of either dual based on geographical location 

US - petrol is cheap, hence one reason for diesel not taking off

UK - Diesel is more expensive than petrol so probably goes along way towards more petrol vehicles

Mainland Europe - Diesel is cheaper than petrol...hence why there are so many more diesel vehicles than petrol (I pay 1 euro a liter which means a full tank is about 80 euros...when over in the UK I end up paying at least 100 pound !)

oh and I jut wish i could get down to an average of 12ltr per 100km out of two of my vehicles - so obviously these are not bought for absolute economy 

its going to be interesting to see how diesel gets replaced in Europe (especially in countries like. France) when something like 70% of vehicle sales are diesel and even fuel stations are configured to cater for the diesel majority. That's a lot of infrastructure change, right back to storage, supply chain etc.

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