Opportunities presented by Brexit

Opportunities presented by Brexit

Ok, so I voted to remain. However……………….

………a small majority voted to leave and the Government is heading in that direction.

So, what are the opportunities that Brexit offers and, just as importantly, how would we set about securing those opportunities ?

Jacob Rees Mogg was clearly impressed on “Question Time” (Thursday 22nd Sept 2016 BBC 1) by the well-expressed enthusiasm of a young man who considered that it offered opportunities to engage with the rest of the World, in which many countries are flourishing economically, rather than looking inward towards Europe. (But I didn’t detect any indication from either of these two people as to how we might achieve such an ambition.)

So, what do YOU consider are the opportunities and how might we turn these into a beneficial reality ? I am hoping this will be an optimistic thread !

Original Post

Ok, probably quite niche, but cloud computing providers had been focussing on the NL and Ireland for hosting for the EU inc the UK because of tax breaks etc, I am now seeing  increased investment plans into the U.K. for UK regional Cloud DCs to better support British businesses globally trading and better align with domestic infrastructure ... and given the possible UK security firewall ideas that are evolving by GCHQ this could better protect and support U.K. Businesses in the future use cloud services on public networks within the U.K.

Also starting to see increased interest in non EU ventures and investments.. obviously early dats until Article 50 activated... but in IT it's starting to feel a little exciting... my fear is that it will take too long for us to fully start to take advantage of the benefits, and I hope we don't get too caught up in the cross wind from the German/ French elections which could be further destabilising for the EU.

I suppose we may see a reduction in the gravitation of businesses to the South East which I would imagine was an inevitable consequence of our membership of the EU. Indeed, if there is to be a major shift in our trading relationships, this could see a revitalisation of ports such as Liverpool given its position on the great circle route to North America and its former links to deep sea trade.

Maybe this this is just wishful thinking given the dominance of Rotterdam as a transshipment port and clearly things have changed in the shipping world since the 70s but it would be good to see our own ports regenerate.

What do we make? What can we export that generates the balance of payments to boost the UK economy rather than Japan, India, China, other european countries?  I have no clue.  Austin Cambridges to New Zealand maybe?  There might still be a market. Would we have to buy the plant back from India? Or export convicts to Australia? This seems to be at about the level that Rees Mogg operates.  

I expect the big opportunities will come from coast to coast sweat shops, slack employment law and a supercharged financial sector. Come to the UK to do your business on the cheap, avoid those irritating EU compliance issues,  get big tax breaks, etc. We could be like the Cayman Islands without all that pesky beauty and warm climate.

MDS posted:

Opportunities? There will be lots of new jobs for civil servants, diplomats, lawyers and consultants....but I guess you were looking for something rather more uplifting, Don?  

I concur with your assessment of new jobs and yes, I was rather hoping for some enlightenment that would help lift me out of my continuing despair.

Chris Dolan posted:

I would imagine huge opportunities for insolvency practitioners too.

Yes Chris, agreed.

Unfortunately, I don't see too many opportunities for people to invest in civil servants, diplomats, lawyers or insolvency practitioners. Unless we can invest in something, I don't see much opportunity for REAL growth.

Perhaps we shouldn't sell off half the National Grid gas pipe lines to foreign investers which I understand the Gov is trying to do ?

Bananahead posted:

Living on the mainland, I am loving the exchange rate.

Yes, I have just returned from Canada. My Canadian daughter and grandchildren think we should emigrate rather than simply visit for three or four months a year. (I don't think my son-in-law was quite as enthusiastic )

When I decide to give up the old flying instruction, I might be tempted.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Ok, probably quite niche, but cloud computing providers had been focussing on the NL and Ireland for hosting for the EU inc the UK because of tax breaks etc, I am now seeing  increased investment plans into the U.K. for UK regional Cloud DCs to better support British businesses globally trading and better align with domestic infrastructure ... and given the possible UK security firewall ideas that are evolving by GCHQ this could better protect and support U.K. Businesses in the future use cloud services on public networks within the U.K.

Also starting to see increased interest in non EU ventures and investments.. obviously early dats until Article 50 activated... but in IT it's starting to feel a little exciting... my fear is that it will take too long for us to fully start to take advantage of the benefits, and I hope we don't get too caught up in the cross wind from the German/ French elections which could be further destabilising for the EU.

Nice one Simon. Perhaps there a fair number of niche markets to be found and together with cottage industries they will all help.

sjbabbey posted:

I suppose we may see a reduction in the gravitation of businesses to the South East which I would imagine was an inevitable consequence of our membership of the EU. Indeed, if there is to be a major shift in our trading relationships, this could see a revitalisation of ports such as Liverpool given its position on the great circle route to North America and its former links to deep sea trade.

Maybe this this is just wishful thinking given the dominance of Rotterdam as a transshipment port and clearly things have changed in the shipping world since the 70s but it would be good to see our own ports regenerate.

Nice one sj.

Are there some "Rules" in the EU membership book that prevent Liverpool from enterprisingly competing with Rotterdam at present ? I appreciate the CAP has rules to prevent over-supply of food and to even out the food supply chain, but I wasn't aware of any Port rules to prevent over-supply of shipping berths.

I can therefore anticipate that farming might be given a freedom boost on leaving the EU but i'm not certain that we NEED to leave the EU in order to give Ports a boost. OTOH We might HAVE to invest in port development when we leave the EU,

Bananahead,

That's pretty much the way things are today. Liverpool is on the "wrong side" of the country for freight going into Europe which is why it declined after our entry into the EU. Historically, Liverpool was perhaps the major port of the old Empire days and its market was for freight from North America (because of the Great Circle route reducing the sailing time), ECSA (East Coast of South America), West Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East. Our change to a Eurocentric trading nation coupled with changes in shipping methods (particularly Containerisation where cargoes would be onforwarded to inland destination for unloading) had a serious impact on the port although it did maintain the ACL RoRo service to North America.

The point being that Liverpool will not become the gateway into Europe that Rotterdam is (it never was that anyway) but the reduced sailing time to the port for deep sea shipping (avoiding perhaps the World's busiest sea lane, i.e. the English Channel) could make it more attractive for any increased non-European trade coming into the UK arising out of increased non Single Market trade.

Don,

I'm not aware of any "EU or other Rules" preventing Liverpool from competing with Rotterdam. Rather, it's a consequence of its geographic location coupled with a lack of investment in comparison with the expansion of Rotterdam as the major transhipment hub for Northern Europe as Singapore is for the Far East.

sjbabbey posted:

Additional to the above, it would also be greatly aided by improved rail link infrastructure.

Hmmmm............

Looks like we are talking about significant investment to enable the UK to trade with the "Rest" of the world. Who is going to fund this investment ? I appreciate it could be the Tax-payer with the Gov re-directing some of our current EU contributions. Or is it more likely to be Chinese or other foreign investors such as Dubai Ports ? or will we still rely of Rotterdam feeding Felixstowe together with the new Thames Gateway terminal which already has a rail link, and other East Coast regional ports?

 

sjbabbey posted:

Bananahead,

That's pretty much the way things are today. Liverpool is on the "wrong side" of the country for freight going into Europe which is why it declined after our entry into the EU. Historically, Liverpool was perhaps the major port of the old Empire days and its market was for freight from North America (because of the Great Circle route reducing the sailing time), ECSA (East Coast of South America), West Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East. Our change to a Eurocentric trading nation coupled with changes in shipping methods (particularly Containerisation where cargoes would be onforwarded to inland destination for unloading) had a serious impact on the port although it did maintain the ACL RoRo service to North America.

The point being that Liverpool will not become the gateway into Europe that Rotterdam is (it never was that anyway) but the reduced sailing time to the port for deep sea shipping (avoiding perhaps the World's busiest sea lane, i.e. the English Channel) could make it more attractive for any increased non-European trade coming into the UK arising out of increased non Single Market trade.

Don,

I'm not aware of any "EU or other Rules" preventing Liverpool from competing with Rotterdam. Rather, it's a consequence of its geographic location coupled with a lack of investment in comparison with the expansion of Rotterdam as the major transhipment hub for Northern Europe as Singapore is for the Far East.

Well I understand that already Felixstowe deep berth port is the seventh largest port in the EU with Rotterdam at the top, and the largest in the U.K. by a long way and has capacity and infrastructure for loading and unloading the new breed of monster Triple E container ships and the like ... watching these behemoths being piloted into the Stour/Orwell estuary from arriving around the world is a sight to behold... and much of this traffic is onward distributed into Europe.

Indeed Simon, undoubtedly 40 years of membership of the EEC/EU will have assisted in the growth of Felixstowe and other SE ports. Whether in the post-Brexit world EU-bound cargoes will still be routed via Felixstowe rather than Rotterdam or Zeebrugge may be interesting to see assuming that these ports have additional capacity.

Hopefully, this traffic will continue on the basis of free competition factors (freight rates/port dues/turn around times etc.)

Indeed, it is interesting that Felixstowe being in the East of England as opposed to the South East region is probably geographically better placed and less impacted by congestion by both road and rail to supply the other regions of the UK including the SE region with the new expanded freight rail links into the midlands and South East and uprated A14 feeding the M1/A1/M6/A12 road infrastructure, and I am sure that  has helped propel Felixstowe to be significantly above the Port of London for example.

I suppose there will also be increased opportunities for those interested in a career in Border Control, assuming we go for the "Hard" Brexit option. But.............

.......I was kind of hoping that those "Leavers" on the forum would present a comprehensive schedule of wealth-creating opportunities. Or, if the "Leavers" weren't up to this task, some of us "Remainers" might be more enterprising, since "Come What May" (Pun Intended), we are going to leave one way or another !!

Sleeping through this challenging time, isn't a sensible option IMHO. And "Hope" isn't a strategy !

Don Atkinson posted:

I suppose there will also be increased opportunities for those interested in a career in Border Control, assuming we go for the "Hard" Brexit option.

Perhaps, but likely to be underfunded and G4S will end up getting visas for Romainians and Poles in to work at minimum wage policing the U.K. borders...

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:
sjbabbey posted:

Bananahead,

That's pretty much the way things are today. Liverpool is on the "wrong side" of the country for freight going into Europe which is why it declined after our entry into the EU. Historically, Liverpool was perhaps the major port of the old Empire days and its market was for freight from North America (because of the Great Circle route reducing the sailing time), ECSA (East Coast of South America), West Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East. Our change to a Eurocentric trading nation coupled with changes in shipping methods (particularly Containerisation where cargoes would be onforwarded to inland destination for unloading) had a serious impact on the port although it did maintain the ACL RoRo service to North America.

The point being that Liverpool will not become the gateway into Europe that Rotterdam is (it never was that anyway) but the reduced sailing time to the port for deep sea shipping (avoiding perhaps the World's busiest sea lane, i.e. the English Channel) could make it more attractive for any increased non-European trade coming into the UK arising out of increased non Single Market trade.

Don,

I'm not aware of any "EU or other Rules" preventing Liverpool from competing with Rotterdam. Rather, it's a consequence of its geographic location coupled with a lack of investment in comparison with the expansion of Rotterdam as the major transhipment hub for Northern Europe as Singapore is for the Far East.

Well I understand that already Felixstowe deep berth port is the seventh largest port in the EU with Rotterdam at the top, and the largest in the U.K. by a long way and has capacity and infrastructure for loading and unloading the new breed of monster Triple E container ships and the like ... watching these behemoths being piloted into the Stour/Orwell estuary from arriving around the world is a sight to behold... and much of this traffic is onward distributed into Europe.

I can't see the cost benefit that shipping goods to Europe via the UK would confer. The use of a UK port would be a last resort due to congestion at mainland ports. Given the potential for increased bureaucratic hassle of moving goods from the UK to Europe after Brexit, this option would seem even less appealing. 

But that's an awesome ship. We don't get those monsters here in Vancouver.

Eloise posted:
Don Atkinson posted:

I suppose there will also be increased opportunities for those interested in a career in Border Control, assuming we go for the "Hard" Brexit option.

Perhaps, but likely to be underfunded and G4S will end up getting visas for Romainians and Poles in to work at minimum wage policing the U.K. borders...

What is your point, exactly?

 

Not an expert on the Brexit, but what do you gents think about  Varoufakis?

I like this guy, especially his analogy with Music! 

"Yanis Varoufakis says Brexit is like Hotel California: 'You can check out any time you like but you can't really leave'"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/yanis-varoufakis-says-brexit-is-like-hotel-california-you-can-check-out-any-time-you-like-but-you-a7334781.html

My take, the world is shrinking, and the Same Elitist is controlling the Markets as an whole!

Allante93!

What is crucial is whether we can cut trade deals with other nations faster and better than EU is able to do (with many different nations all having different vested interests).

The devaluation of GBP to a more competitive level will help us.

Being further away from banking problems in EU will also help.

 

PeterJ posted:

What is crucial is whether we can cut trade deals with other nations faster and better than EU is able to do (with many different nations all having different vested interests).

The devaluation of GBP to a more competitive level will help us.

Being further away from banking problems in EU will also help.

 

I know you guys get a better feel of the situation, but from across the pond, I'm getting the following from the Media:

Soon to be, the 3 most powerful women in the world, are not supporting the Brexit.

Theresa May, Merkel, and Hillary, now throw in Hollande, and we got Germany, France, Britain, and the US.

Furthermore, the largest Bank in Germany, has taken a hit, and Merkel isn't supporting a bailout. 

And this Yanis guy, is saying don't drink the Kool-Aid, Troika is a bit like Sausage, if you knew it's make-up, you wouldn't touch it.

From the people's perspective, no one likes the Media shoving something down your throat.

 Grexit, Brexit, or Frexit!

In the US, the People, for the most part knows the Donald, is a Buffoon, But doesn't like an Hillary Sausage, being shoved down their throats.

And the Third Party, Gary Johnson, he Can't name any world leaders, but he has smoked some marijuana in the last 7 weeks!

Could Anyone, give me a better insight of what's going on, sometimes one can't depend on the Media.

Thanks in Advance!

Allante93!

winkyincanada posted:
Eloise posted:
Don Atkinson posted:

I suppose there will also be increased opportunities for those interested in a career in Border Control, assuming we go for the "Hard" Brexit option.

Perhaps, but likely to be underfunded and G4S will end up getting visas for Romainians and Poles in to work at minimum wage policing the U.K. borders...

What is your point, exactly?

My point is that the inequalities in the UK are not caused by the EU and being members of the EU and that the policies which lead to such inequality are those of our current and past governments.  Those policies will continue regardless of "Brexit" and companies such as G4S who are more and more getting contracts to run the UKs essential services will always find the way to get the cheapest labour ... likely even getting around "closed" borders as there was always going to be the ability to employ those outside the U.K. where suitable staff are not available in the U.K.

I read an article in the Guardian last week saying that business is booming for consultants being employed by firms concerned about how to mitigate the risks arising from Brexit, and that the salaries offered were rising accordingly. 

Of course, were it not for Brexit the firms would not need to waste money on these consultants in the first place, but for the consultants themselves, happy days. 

Plenty of opportunities for the many thousands of UK citizens living in the EU to come back to the UK, not just because of reduced EU assistance but more likely much reduced sterling income worth - thus putting more pressure on housing in exactly the way that Leave voters didn't want. Conversely, most of the recent immigrants to this country will be staying.

That helped then!

Allante93 posted:
PeterJ posted:

What is crucial is whether we can cut trade deals with other nations faster and better than EU is able to do (with many different nations all having different vested interests).

The devaluation of GBP to a more competitive level will help us.

Being further away from banking problems in EU will also help.

 

I know you guys get a better feel of the situation, but from across the pond, I'm getting the following from the Media:

Soon to be, the 3 most powerful women in the world, are not supporting the Brexit.

Theresa May, Merkel, and Hillary, now throw in Hollande, and we got Germany, France, Britain, and the US.

Furthermore, the largest Bank in Germany, has taken a hit, and Merkel isn't supporting a bailout. 

And this Yanis guy, is saying don't drink the Kool-Aid, Troika is a bit like Sausage, if you knew it's make-up, you wouldn't touch it.

From the people's perspective, no one likes the Media shoving something down your throat.

 Grexit, Brexit, or Frexit!......

Could Anyone, give me a better insight of what's going on, sometimes one can't depend on the Media.

Thanks in Advance!

Allante93!

Wow, Headlines, the Brexit could cost the Banks 51 Billion!

Allante93!

Allante93 posted:

And this Yanis guy, is saying don't drink the Kool-Aid, Troika is a bit like Sausage, if you knew it's make-up, you wouldn't touch it.

That Yannis guy is Greek. Greeks invented democracy and were also the first who invented how to kill democracy: by giving too much power to the people.

He is doing the same and the problem is that many people have sympathy for these ideas, but they lead to a more paralized world.

Without the Troika, retirement age would have been 57 and Greece would have kept overspending and providing false figures to the rest of Europe.

I say: a free Volkswagen Nait 1 for everyone!

Peter Dinh posted:

GBP is now at $.124, good stuff. So when do we see Naim revise the prices in the US?

Excuse me Peter, old chap........I don't think you fully understand......

........the whole point about Brexit is to make things over here, better for people who voted to leave.

Nothing to do with making things better for people outside the UK, or even for those who voted to Remain.

That £5k amp that used to cost $10k (when back in 2000 you got $2 for £1) is still going to set you guys back $10k (plus inflation). It's just that $10k now buys £8k. So Naim can now live life to the full.....whoopee (for some)...............

............oh! I forgot...........Naim now have to buy their components from China and are going to need most of that £8k to do so, because the £££ has fallen against other currencies, and also, those BMWs and Mercs that we here in the UK so like are needing a few more £££ because the Euro is a bit stronger...........

Oh, sod it. It's all a bit more complicated than I first thought............... but I don't see you Peter, being quite so well off in the Naim Department any time soon............in fact, I don't see many of us better off in any department, any time soon !! ( and i'm an optimist)

 

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