Britain out of Europe? should I stop buying NAIM

Posted by: Salvo on 09 December 2011

As Mr Cameron said, ...It is not in Britain interest...

 

What you all think?

 

salvo

Posted on: 10 December 2011 by jfritzen
Originally Posted by fatcat:
Originally Posted by Derek Wright:

 

I respect and enjoy the customs of France and Germany and Italy when I am in those  countries - but I do not want to live by them in the UK

 

 

 LOL

 

I suggest you stop reading the Sun

Especially because those UK customs and traditions were largely influenced by exactly these countries: Italy (Romans), Germany (Anglosaxons) and France (Normans).

Posted on: 10 December 2011 by Jonathan Gorse

Personally I have always felt that there is great value in being part of a free trade association with Europe but I have never believed that extending Europe beyond being a free trade organisation made very much sense.  The financial circumstances of each country are simply too disparate for a European government to be able to apply a one size fits all policy on interest rates, borrowing limits etc.  Germany curently enjoys a massive trade surplus with much of Europe, if everyone had their own currency with floating exchange rates this would cause the DM to rise and over the longer term balance the trade deficits of their trading partners. 

 

As for Cameron protecting the City I fear this may be the case and I'm sure the City does generate significant tax revenue and jobs.  My objection however is that this doesn't take into account the harmful effects of the City either.  It seems to pay people vastly excessive salaries which some of them manage to avoid paying proper tax on.  The excessive salaries and bonuses have also caused house prices to become wildly out of step with average earnings of normal people and priced them out of houses they should be able to comfortably afford.  I also think that if you give an extra £5000 a year to 1000 people it will create a bigger tax take, create more jobs and deliver more happiness in the wider economy than if you give £1 million bonus to 5x bankers.    £5000 per annum makes a massive difference to someone earning £25k, whereas £1 million makes bugger all difference to someone already earning £2 million a year.

 

Jonathan

Posted on: 10 December 2011 by TomK
Originally Posted by Derek Wright:

The city contributes significantly to the UK tax take, it enables the majority of the population to have a free ride - ie they do not pay to cover their costs to the nation.

If you don't mind I'd like to see some proof of this. Just so I'll know when to get on my knees and thank the philanthropists in the city for being so good to us mere mortals.

Posted on: 10 December 2011 by DrMark

WTF does EU politics have to do with which brand of audio equipment you buy?

 

These damned politicians have enough to say about how I get to live my life, irrespective of which side of the political fence they are on. As far as I am concerned they can all go to hell, and truth be known, they probably all will.

 

I refuse to let them & their activities inflict themselves on my enjoyment of music beyond their limiting what I can afford.

Posted on: 10 December 2011 by adca

to the question of the OP: a clear yes. The focal deal is irrelevant as long as it is presented as a merger.

 

I do not like to judge the Government of another state, but I do not have the impression that, financially speaking, the UK has done much better than many States of the now EURO zone since the 1950s. In addition, it has transferred to the EU much less than Germany, something DS10 usually forgets. 

 

adca1

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by JamieWednesday

It's uncertainty isn't it?

 

Who knows whether any new treaty/accord/powers can be managed effectively 'this time'.

 

Many decisions by politicians, parties and nations will be made based on short term self interest.

 

The Eurozone would seem not to have covered itself in glory with it's decision making processes before now. Any committee making decisions will still (I guess) be made up of a disparate set of individuals from a number of nations (and I suspect every nation will push for at least one representative, at least later if they can't do so sooner). How dispassionate can they be about their home nation's self interests? Can they push short term pain for what they see could be long term gain? Who knows?

 

Whether the UK is party to this or not, I still cannot see such a wide range of national representatives successfully  juggling what is perceived by some to make financial sense economically for most with the wills and perceptions of their citizens and the perspectives of their own and other political parties back home...It's hard enough for the UK coalition of just two to manage this and I can't see that lasting long term either.

 

Yes, it could make sense to all pull in one direction and to be part of a power block with our closest geographical neighbours (the Commonwealth declined in the UK's eyes as it made more sense to try and sell stuff to the French and Germans than Malawi and New Zealand) but people is people and the cynic in me suspects that individual national identities will long term rule over collective ideals. It only ever takes one to rock the boat. And there will always be one.

 

As to the financial tax, I'm not sure about this. I believe Germany is very keen on scrapping with the UK to build Frankfurt as the key European financial centre. There is a 'cold' war going on here and it's not being nationalist to suggest Germany is very keen on being/remaining the dominant power in Europe and protecting its own self interest. The Financial tax could be very damaging to Germany's own economic planning were this to be put in place in its current format. As such I suspect this particular seed is no more likely to be planted without us than with us. It smacks of being a bit fishy with a scarlet hue, diverting focus from something else.  If outside of mainland Europe business can trade more cheaply elsewhere on the planet then they probably will.

 

In the mean time China looks on, publicly rolling it's eyes but privately chuckling with a James Bond villain's chuckle of choice... (Largely by successfully choosing how to apply varying layers of a single party, single power, focussed state control, without allowing anything like free democracy to break it up. And further by displaying disdain for the wants and needs of the rest of the world, much like a hungry cat toys with its mice or a farmer fattens his cattle).

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by Derek Wright

To answer some of the points raised about my comments

 

No - my opinions are not based on reading The Sun or the Daily Mail but by working in a European role dealing with most if not all the European countries, this involved being in and organising  large and small meetings, staying sometimes in the countries for quite a while, running technical education classes in a significant number of countries.

 

Over the years I have been involved with school exchanges in France and Germany both hosting the visitors and and also being hosted in homes in those countries.  Regardless what the students obtained from the visits, the host and hosted would spend a large amount of time discussing and comparing life in the relevant countries as well as comparing how the schools were run ( which was the main downside of the visits for me - not being a teacher but a "hanger on" ) 

 

So my view on the differences between the countries is based on real experience.

 

As for the contribution and free ride comment. This was raised on the "More or Less" BBC Radio 4 program about 12 to 24 months ago. I have no more information - by the time the significance of this statistic for web discussion was realised I could not find any reference to it.

 

Final point  - it is better to get 30% tax from 90% of the income than 90% from very little  pot of money - something that Maggie T alluded to on this topic

     

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by jfritzen
Originally Posted by The Strat (Fender):
Originally Posted by jfritzen:

 

 

And you can't blame Merkozy for trying to save the Euro zone from the debt crisis. Cameron thought he could force his will over Europe and got outmanouvered by Merkel. She's a very talented tactician.

May or may not be the case but doesn't alter the fact that the Germans and French are basically trying to shore up something which was simply a stupid idea in the first place.

IMO the current crisis is a debt crisis, not a euro crisis. As far as I understand the primary goal of a currency should be to keep prices stable. And so far the euro did remarkably well in this respect, even better than the DM while it existed.

 

UK, US have a debt crisis too, and they don't have the euro. There are countries that have the euro and no debt crisis. If Greece still had the drachme it could devalue by 50% and thereby get rid of 50% of the debt, leaving the banks with 50% write-offs too. I see no difference to a euro debt relief of 50%.

 

The fundamental problems are the different levels of economical competitiveness inside the EU. Politicians have to work for a better balance, it's their genuine duty. The euro makes this imbalance more apparent, and that's a good thing. I'm quite sure that without the euro Greece would never have got so much attention by "top management". 

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by Mike-B

I see this mess as both a debt & a Euro crisis. 

The debt is pretty much common to most western countries,  the fact that the Euro-zone has a few more than most is one thing. But others like UK, USA & Japan owe a few bob as well.

 

My take on the Euro is that it's a fiscal impossibility until the Euro-zone has a federal tax & financial system - e.g. USA.

The Euro-zone countries have spend years & billions trying to make it work politically outside that premise.  Now they appear to have begun to realise & to move towards that solution.

 

jfritzen is right about individual countries values - assuming Germany is the benchmark; Greece might be over valued by 50% , but that puts all others in the Euro-zone - including France - at various levels between Greece & Germany. 

 

Re Cameron - He had bad hand of cards,  but he's played what he had badly.  

Merkozy have without doubt set it up to make it work "there way or no way" with the 17 & sold it as a must do for the other non-Euro counties,  already knowing Cameron was against it & that he had his cards face up & nothing up his sleeve, they took a position of intransigence. 

Cameron must have realised this & with pressure from his euro-sceptic's putting him in a difficult position he was maybe a little too hyped up with Bulldog. He has played his only trump (veto) too quickly,  why not play for time with the veto card known to all, why not try to talk the Euro-zone into fixing the Euro-zone issues first & not begin the less immediate EU treaty changes with much more discussion - like the usual years of protracted meetings in the EU way.

 

Protecting the "City" is for the fairies & euro-sceptic's.  The London markets will still get hit with whatever financial tax the Euro-zone applies,  if the cities trade is 60% with the Euro, they will still be hit with 60% of whatever the tax is.


Sorry David,  Merkozy 1 - Cameron 0

Maybe we might get offered or maybe we'll have to plead for a rematch

 






 

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by dzambolaja
Originally Posted by jfritzen:
Originally Posted by The Strat (Fender):
Originally Posted by jfritzen:

 

 

And you can't blame Merkozy for trying to save the Euro zone from the debt crisis. Cameron thought he could force his will over Europe and got outmanouvered by Merkel. She's a very talented tactician.

May or may not be the case but doesn't alter the fact that the Germans and French are basically trying to shore up something which was simply a stupid idea in the first place.

IMO the current crisis is a debt crisis, not a euro crisis. As far as I understand the primary goal of a currency should be to keep prices stable. And so far the euro did remarkably well in this respect, even better than the DM while it existed.

 

UK, US have a debt crisis too, and they don't have the euro. There are countries that have the euro and no debt crisis. If Greece still had the drachme it could devalue by 50% and thereby get rid of 50% of the debt, leaving the banks with 50% write-offs too. I see no difference to a euro debt relief of 50%.

 

The fundamental problems are the different levels of economical competitiveness inside the EU. Politicians have to work for a better balance, it's their genuine duty. The euro makes this imbalance more apparent, and that's a good thing. I'm quite sure that without the euro Greece would never have got so much attention by "top management". 

Not sure if they could simply "devalue by 50%" just like that.  Most of their debt is foreign ie. denominated in EUR hence any potential Dhs devaluation by 50% would just make the foreign debt 50% more expensive in Dhs value terms.  They will still have to repay the same amount in EUR, won't they?

 

Bobby

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by jfritzen
Originally Posted by dzambolaja:
Originally Posted by jfritzen:
Originally Posted by The Strat (Fender):
Originally Posted by jfritzen:

 

The fundamental problems are the different levels of economical competitiveness inside the EU. Politicians have to work for a better balance, it's their genuine duty. The euro makes this imbalance more apparent, and that's a good thing. I'm quite sure that without the euro Greece would never have got so much attention by "top management". 

Not sure if they could simply "devalue by 50%" just like that.  Most of their debt is foreign ie. denominated in EUR hence any potential Dhs devaluation by 50% would just make the foreign debt 50% more expensive in Dhs value terms.  They will still have to repay the same amount in EUR, won't they?

 

Bobby

I assume that a country would always issue bonds(?) in their own currency, i.e. the currency which they control. Everything else would be a massive disadvantage. According to my online bank I can e.g. buy UK bonds over here in Germany and their nominal value is still expressed in GBP. But I'm not an expert.

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by DrMark
Originally Posted by dzambolaja:

 

UK, US have a debt crisis too, and they don't have the euro. There are countries that have the euro and no debt crisis. If Greece still had the drachme it could devalue by 50% and thereby get rid of 50% of the debt, leaving the banks with 50% write-offs too. I see no difference to a euro debt relief of 50%.

 

 

Not sure if they could simply "devalue by 50%" just like that.  Most of their debt is foreign ie. denominated in EUR hence any potential Dhs devaluation by 50% would just make the foreign debt 50% more expensive in Dhs value terms.  They will still have to repay the same amount in EUR, won't they?

 

Bobby

I took this to mean had the Euro not existed - they would have borrowed the money in drachmas and thus could devalue the debt through printing.

 

I guarantee you that in the end, in addition to its own fiscal mess, the US taxpayer/consumer (through taxes/inflation) via the Fed & the IMF will end up on the hook for a lot of this.

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by fatcat
Originally Posted by Derek Wright:

To answer some of the points raised about my comments

 

No - my opinions are not based on reading The Sun or the Daily Mail but by working in a European role dealing with most if not all the European countries, this involved being in and organising  large and small meetings, staying sometimes in the countries for quite a while, running technical education classes in a significant number of countries.

 

Over the years I have been involved with school exchanges in France and Germany both hosting the visitors and and also being hosted in homes in those countries.  Regardless what the students obtained from the visits, the host and hosted would spend a large amount of time discussing and comparing life in the relevant countries as well as comparing how the schools were run ( which was the main downside of the visits for me - not being a teacher but a "hanger on" ) 

 

So my view on the differences between the countries is based on real experience.

 

So, your "real experiences" show there are differences in life and education. If 30 years ago there where differences now there are none, you'd have a point. I can't see tightening financial controls will change the situation.

 

In fact, the ridiculous idea of setting up an in this country an English baccalaureate, has come not from the EU, but that idiot Micheal Gove,

Posted on: 11 December 2011 by Derek Wright

?

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by Salvo

Well,

after 2 days reading across papers, and seeing events unfold, it seems that we are all going to be "losers".

 

salvo

 

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by Guido Fawkes

I'd like to veto this thread if it's all right by you. 

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by Guido Fawkes
Originally Posted by DrMark:
Originally Posted by dzambolaja:

 

UK, US have a debt crisis too, and they don't have the euro. There are countries that have the euro and no debt crisis. If Greece still had the drachme it could devalue by 50% and thereby get rid of 50% of the debt, leaving the banks with 50% write-offs too. I see no difference to a euro debt relief of 50%.

 

 

Not sure if they could simply "devalue by 50%" just like that.  Most of their debt is foreign ie. denominated in EUR hence any potential Dhs devaluation by 50% would just make the foreign debt 50% more expensive in Dhs value terms.  They will still have to repay the same amount in EUR, won't they?

 

Bobby

I took this to mean had the Euro not existed - they would have borrowed the money in drachmas and thus could devalue the debt through printing.

 

That's even more sneaky than leaving a wooden horse outside your neighbours house

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by fatcat
Originally Posted by Guido Fawkes:

I'd like to veto this thread if it's all right by you. 

That's fine. Can Nicolas, I mean Richard please place Guido in the naughty corner.

 

We'll carry on with this thread and all the others without him.

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by 911gt3r

Please can anyone tell me , how many french tanks were destroyed , when Paris ' fell' to the German armoured infantry divisions , ehm let's try to start with one hand .........!

........And how many allied/british tanks and lives did it take to free Paris 4 years later ...... lets start counting from 10.000 , shall we !

History sadly tends to go round in circles , and little do we learn ! Tally hoo Peter

Posted on: 13 December 2011 by JamieWednesday

Erm...

 

Posted on: 14 December 2011 by maze
Fact, the euro will fail, fact the European union will fail. Pull head out of the Sand and plan for this.
Posted on: 14 December 2011 by Bananahead
Originally Posted by maze:
Fact, the euro will fail, fact the European union will fail. Pull head out of the Sand and plan for this.


Do you actually understand what "fact" means?

Posted on: 14 December 2011 by George Fredrik

I suspect that the Euro has a future with a smaller Union [say Germany and half a dozen neighbours, but the phenomenon of the EU has to survuve for reasons as much polical as economic, though the politics cannot be divorced from the politics to a large degree. [IMO of course].

 

None of this post may safely be regarded as fact, merely opinion! [IMO of course].

 

ATB from George

Posted on: 14 December 2011 by alainbil
Originally Posted by 911gt3r:

Please can anyone tell me , how many french tanks were destroyed , when Paris ' fell' to the German armoured infantry divisions , ehm let's try to start with one hand .........!

........And how many allied/british tanks and lives did it take to free Paris 4 years later ...... lets start counting from 10.000 , shall we !

History sadly tends to go round in circles , and little do we learn ! Tally hoo Peter

How Sweet It Is (To Be Loved by You)

Posted on: 14 December 2011 by George Fredrik

One of the reasons Paris is such a beautiful city is that it has never been fought over in the way say Berlin, Warsaw, or London have. Hence these once beautiful, and still great, cities are less beautiful than the baroque splendour or Paris, may be down to a pragmatic view of "we have lost, so let's make the best of it" Not a German, Polish, or British view, but certainly one to make for stimulating thought ....

 

The French actually have a point.

 

ATB from George