An astonishing day - Do we have anything to say?

IRANIANS ARE NOT ARABS

innit, lest you appen t'forget like ?

quote:

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Originally posted by 7V:

I wonder how many lawyers and judges are amongst the Iraqis living in exile and whether some of these would return to Iraq.

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Good question. I wonder if the judicial branch of government has been thought of at all by the US. Surely some theoretical work is taking place along with all the practical, paternalistic planning.

I seem to recall that Saddam Hussein himself is a lawyer, not that its particularly relevant to the discussion.

Deane

quote:

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Originally posted by Deane F:
...I wonder if the judicial branch of government has been thought of at all by the US. Surely some theoretical work is taking place along with all the practical, paternalistic planning.

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Deane,

There's quite a lot of information on the Internet from the US State Department and also the US Institute of Peace (an independent federal institution created by US Congress). Some of the State Department guys are very bright indeed. That doesn't mean that they get it right all the time but they're not as stupid as people often tend to think.

Without the US-led invasion, Iraq would have eventually faced these constitutional and legal issues, in the event of a revolution or the death of Saddam Hussein. It's a rare dictator indeed who adequately plans for his own succession.

Regards
Steve M

PS: By coincidence my mother's rheumatologist is an Iraqi exile (a Christian who escaped from Saddam Hussein's regime). I have to take my mother for an appointment with him soon and it will be interesting to get his view.

I thought it was an invasion to oust Saddam from power, not a war.

quote:

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Originally posted by Tommy C:
Great case for invasion then

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Living in Bury SE must give you a really optimistic view on life, Tommy.

Do you really think Iraq will settle down to a US-Style 'democracy'? The US will pull out too early, leaving instability and a destroyed infrastructure. In my opinion the most likely outcome is civil war followed by an Iran-style fundamentalist government.

The US probably will even lose control of the Iraq oil reserves - so even they wont get what they wanted out of the invasion in the long run.

Regards

Stephen

quote:

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Originally posted by Stephen Bennett:

Do you really think Iraq will settle down to a US-Style 'democracy'? The US will pull out too early, leaving instability and a destroyed infrastructure.

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I concur. If the US would just stick around long enough to ensure a few basic things such as:

a dependable national grid
a clean safe water supply
a public works system
a corruption free bureaucracy
a transparent births, deaths, marriages and electoral roll system (these are vital to a democracy)
a trusted dispute resolution system
etc

then the investment might pay dividends.

Otherwise I'm afraid Stephen Bennet might well be proved right.

Deane

quote:

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Originally posted by Stephen Bennett:
Do you really think Iraq will settle down to a US-Style 'democracy'? The US will pull out too early, leaving instability and a destroyed infrastructure. In my opinion the most likely outcome is civil war followed by an Iran-style fundamentalist government.

The US probably will even lose control of the Iraq oil reserves - so even they wont get what they wanted out of the invasion in the long run.

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Norwich on the other hand must be a bit of a downer.

Why shouldn't Iraq have a democracy and why should that democracy necessarily be 'US-Style'? The Iraqis have just gone to the polls to vote for an administration who will be responsible for drawing up a constitution. They will either act alone or will call on the help of the UN, EU, US or whosoever they choose. I don't think we can second guess that constitution. However, democracy is clearly what the people want and once that particular genie is out of the bottle it's not so easy to get it back in.

I think (and hope) that the US will pull out when they are asked by the elected government to pull out. Presumably this will be a function of the development of the new Iraqi army and police force versus the insurgent activity. You're right that if the US pulled out too early there would probably be civil war but surely this is an option that the US would try to avoid. There will likely be more support for Bush's Iraq policy in the US itself now that the elections have been successful.

Also, why should the US want or expect 'control' of the Iraq oil reserves? The world market determines the price of oil and as oil is likely to be Iraq's principle source of income, they are unlikely to want to withdraw from that market. Iran hasn't.

Regards
Steve M

quote:

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Originally posted by Deane F:
I concur. If the US would just stick around long enough to ensure a few basic things such as:

a dependable national grid
a clean safe water supply
a public works system
a corruption free bureaucracy
a transparent births, deaths, marriages and electoral roll system (these are vital to a democracy)
a trusted dispute resolution system
etc

then the investment _might_ pay dividends.

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Deane,

The function of the foreign troops in Iraq is to give Iraq security against terrorists and insurgents. When the Iraq government considers that they do not serve that purpose or they are no longer needed for that purpose they will withdraw.

The items on your list above are for the Iraqis to organize themselves, as long as the security situation is adequate.

Regards
Steve M

quote:

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Originally posted by 7V:

Norwich on the other hand must be a bit of a downer.

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Nah - we live in the 1950s here.......

quote:

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Also, why should the US want or expect 'control' of the Iraq oil reserves? The world market determines the price of oil and as oil is likely to be Iraq's principle source of income, they are unlikely to want to withdraw from that market. Iran hasn't.


Regards
Steve M

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For the US (and Bush), keeping the oil supply flowing to the US has to be their major priority - do you really not see any connection between their foreign policy and their oil needs? Do you think they want to be in a position where Iraq can hold the US to ransom by denying oil supply?

As oil becomes scarcer it will become the focus of US overseas policy more and more.

I just hope we can, in Europe, become less dependant on oil. Competing with the US for it in the next 40 years will be a dangerous game.

Stephen

Stephen,

I do see the connection between the US foreign policy and their oil needs. In fact I have some friends in the (UK) foreign office who tell me that foreign policy is "all about oil". Pity.

I think that the real test for the US in this regard will be their policy towards Saudi Arabia. According to the latest report from 'Freedom House' the Saudi state-sponsored extremist Wahhabi factions are now spreading their philosophy of violence and hatred inside the USA itself. It will be interesting to see how the Bush administration behave toward Saudi Arabia over the next 4 years and how they reconcile their attitudes towards oil on the one hand, freedom and democracy on the other.

Regards
Steve M

Let's just hope an eminent westewrn/Brtitish architect gets to design the all New Iraqi Parliamnet building. I thought a cross between the Reichstag (Bündestag as it's now known) the wibbly wobbly scottish Holyrood Hoose, and all paid for by Bonnie Prince Charles, innit.

Fritz Von Just you wait and see

As future Britsh PM Jack Straw would often muse in a mock Northern accent "Where's there's muck, there's brass lad". innit Steve me old magnolia

quote:

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Originally posted by 7V:

The items on your list above are for the Iraqis to organize themselves, as long as the security situation is adequate.

Regards
Steve M

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Steve

Codswallop (the polite form of "bollocks").

The organising of an election and constitution mean that the function of a US presence is more than merely to give Iraq security against terrorists and insurgents.

So, if they're going to organise it they owe it to the Iraqi people to give it the best shot of working.

Deane

Ok, ideaology.

The "Allied Forces" invade to oust Saddam.

The "Allied Forces" ensure stability to allow a democratic election.

Once the election has taken place, the "Allied Forces" withdraw and allow the new democracy to exist pacifly in this "New World Order".

Mmm, am I missing something ?

I know I'm the very last person here to quesztion spelling etc, but isn't pacifly a cheap airline ?

Cheers, Fritz Von Don't forget our Jack emphasised back in november to chicken george that if he wanted to play in Iran he was well on his own, and it was his union that was in a state not ours.

GWB Was voted in by more American's than in history

GWB Was also opposed by more American's in history, innit.

It would appear that stumbling blocks are to be eliminated one way or another. With the death of Arafat we see a chance for progress in Palestine. So Hussein then Arafat and who is next.. It is only to evident the effect that recent events are having on leaders. Our own PM is now strutting the world stage and telling the Europeans how to run their business. Not debt relief but down with trade barriers to help eliminate poverty..
What he says makes some sense but then we look at East Timor and we are trying to drive as hard a bargain as we can to deny them a reasonable share of gas royalties in the Timor Sea. In the long run all nations make sure they first look after number one. After all charity begins at home, doesn't it?

"When the Founding Fathers referred to "We The People", 200 years hence, they were not talking about me "

Secretary of State Rice:


7 days already and the counting still isn't over, I seem to recall Middle Eastern Wars taking less time, innit ?


Relating the Global Warming etc, a popular current Bumper Stcker in the U.S. Mid West is "What would Jesus Drive ?"


Fritz Von Unlucky Cardiff

A week's a long time in politics innitA week's a long time in politics innit

Nearly two weeks now, So where's the jolly old results then ?

Fritz Von You couldn't make it up

Those comments are flyin in, What ?

3 more days to go !

The result so far is obviously a US stitch-up. Their man came third.

There's no way that the results will be still standing in 3 days.

Don't worry, it will still all end in tears.

Regards
Steve M