Blimey!
Posted by: Phil Ward on 07 January 2005
Just have to run this past folks - and here is as good a place as any....
So I'm sitting here working while listening (for the first time in many years) to Be Bop Delux's Sunburst Finish and, in a bored work avoidence manner, clicking on the Wikipedia "random page" link. Third click and who should come up on Wikipedia but Bill Nelson! Eeeek! What's the odds against that? Where's Douglas Adams when you need him?
Think I'll go and have a little lie down.
Phil
So I'm sitting here working while listening (for the first time in many years) to Be Bop Delux's Sunburst Finish and, in a bored work avoidence manner, clicking on the Wikipedia "random page" link. Third click and who should come up on Wikipedia but Bill Nelson! Eeeek! What's the odds against that? Where's Douglas Adams when you need him?
Think I'll go and have a little lie down.
Phil
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by matthewr
"What's the odds against that?"
Given the very large number of things that happen in your life every day, there is a very good chance that any two of them will be spuriously related.
So the odds are very low.
Matthew
Given the very large number of things that happen in your life every day, there is a very good chance that any two of them will be spuriously related.
So the odds are very low.
Matthew
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by throbnorth
Matthew, you're such a spoilsport.
Phil, don't listen to him - I've noticed the same type of thing happening to me recently while reading postings here and simultaneously listening to Radio London's John Gaunt Show.
I agree, it's very disturbing ....
throb
Phil, don't listen to him - I've noticed the same type of thing happening to me recently while reading postings here and simultaneously listening to Radio London's John Gaunt Show.
I agree, it's very disturbing ....
throb
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by Phil Ward
Matthew,
"the very large number of things that happen"? Hey, I'm a part-time loudspeaker designer, so by definition very few things happen in my life.
And well, even in a typically event filled life, the odds of a wild coincidence don't reduce because there's lots of unrelated things going on, rather there's just more opportunity for individual coincidences to pop out of the ether (and yes, I know the ether probably doesn't exist). The odds of me winning the lottery on any specific occasion would not reduce however many times I bought a ticket.
Phil
"the very large number of things that happen"? Hey, I'm a part-time loudspeaker designer, so by definition very few things happen in my life.
And well, even in a typically event filled life, the odds of a wild coincidence don't reduce because there's lots of unrelated things going on, rather there's just more opportunity for individual coincidences to pop out of the ether (and yes, I know the ether probably doesn't exist). The odds of me winning the lottery on any specific occasion would not reduce however many times I bought a ticket.
Phil
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by greeny
quote:
The odds of me winning the lottery on any specific occasion would not reduce however many times I bought a ticket.
Yes it would. And that really is matthews point. Whilst the particular event you witnessed is very unlikely, you probably do thousands of such things in a day, so inevitably once in a while you will get some random link.
Like if you buy 14,000,000 lottery tickets you will probably win the lottery.
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by Phil Ward
Greeny, Yes, if I bought 14,000,000 tickets I would probably find one winner among them - but the odds would not have reduced! 14,000,000 tickets and one winner sounds like 14,000,000 to one to me - exactly the same odds as buying one ticket.
P
P
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by woody
but the winner will be you 
-- woody
-- woody
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by seagull
but having spent £14m buying the tickets, Phil is extremely unlikely to make a profit. How many winners have won more than £14m in the history of the lottery?
He would win the top prize and also all of the other combinations of 5 plus bonus ball, five, four and three balls but still won't make a profit.
He would win the top prize and also all of the other combinations of 5 plus bonus ball, five, four and three balls but still won't make a profit.
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by matthewr
Obviously you would be a fool to buy £14m of lottery tickets in anything other than a rollover week.
Matthew
PS You can beat the lottery if you can be reasonably sure that jackpots exceed £14m in rollover weeks and you pick a combination that nobody else is likely to choose -- say consecutive numbers in the middle of the range. A £1 bet is therefore definitely +EV but the variance is brutal and, with a rollover only about once every 6 weeks, you need to keep betting for (on average) 7m x 6 weeks which is obviously problematic. As a first step therefore one should invent a mechanism for immortality <Goes off to shed>
PPS Apparantly there are lots of people who bet 1,2,3,4,5,6 each week in the belief they are unique. It would be really quite funny if it did come up and they all ended up with £10k each.
Matthew
PS You can beat the lottery if you can be reasonably sure that jackpots exceed £14m in rollover weeks and you pick a combination that nobody else is likely to choose -- say consecutive numbers in the middle of the range. A £1 bet is therefore definitely +EV but the variance is brutal and, with a rollover only about once every 6 weeks, you need to keep betting for (on average) 7m x 6 weeks which is obviously problematic. As a first step therefore one should invent a mechanism for immortality <Goes off to shed>
PPS Apparantly there are lots of people who bet 1,2,3,4,5,6 each week in the belief they are unique. It would be really quite funny if it did come up and they all ended up with £10k each.
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by seagull
Or when there is a guaranteed jackpot, then you May make a profit but only if you are the only winner of the big prize.
Wasn't there one one week when there were something like 132 winners?
Must be a real bummer if that happened to you. You'll only ever win it once so if you only get a few k, maybe enough to clear the mortgage (nice) but not enough to retire and spend life contemplating whether ATC speakers are better than Naims and electrocuting fish...
Wasn't there one one week when there were something like 132 winners?
Must be a real bummer if that happened to you. You'll only ever win it once so if you only get a few k, maybe enough to clear the mortgage (nice) but not enough to retire and spend life contemplating whether ATC speakers are better than Naims and electrocuting fish...
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by greeny
quote:
Greeny, Yes, if I bought 14,000,000 tickets I would probably find one winner among them - but the odds would not have reduced! 14,000,000 tickets and one winner sounds like 14,000,000 to one to me - exactly the same odds as buying one ticket.
The odds of YOU winning the lottery if YOU by 14,000,000 tickets is very high.
The odds of YOU experiencing a strange seemingly random coincidence when you do thousands of things in a day (buy thousands of tickets!) is also not particularly low.
Of course betting on the lottery you need to pick numbers above 31 to increase you chance of a big prize should you win. A high proportion of people use birthdays as their lottery numbers. So a sequence something like 36,37,38,39,40,46 will probably not be picked by anyone else. Unfortunately the liucky dip option scuppers this rational somewhat.
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by blythe
If you consider the odds are generally reckoned to 14,000,000 to one to win the lotto, if you buy 14,000,000 tickets, presumably there are still 14,000,000 other people who've bought theirs (or whatever the maths might be).
So, you're certainly not "bound to win" - does that make any sense??????
Computers are supposed to work on 1's and 0's - in other words "Yes" or "No" - why does mine frequently say "Maybe"?......
So, you're certainly not "bound to win" - does that make any sense??????
Computers are supposed to work on 1's and 0's - in other words "Yes" or "No" - why does mine frequently say "Maybe"?......
Posted on: 07 January 2005 by Adam Meredith
quote:
Originally posted by Phil Ward:
Matthew,
"the very large number of things that happen"? Hey, I'm a part-time loudspeaker designer, so by definition very few things happen in my life.
Phil
So you might be free to build me an occasional table?
Posted on: 08 January 2005 by seagull
if you cover every possible cobination of numbers then you will win. But someone else may win as well which means that the top prize is shared between the two winners.
You will also win 6 prizes for 5 balls plus the bonus
You will also win 6 prizes for 5 balls
etc.
You will also win 6 prizes for 5 balls plus the bonus
You will also win 6 prizes for 5 balls
etc.
Posted on: 08 January 2005 by BigH47
quote:
So you might be free to build me an occasional table?
What should it be at other times?
H
Posted on: 10 January 2005 by Phil Ward
Adam,
If I were to build you a table, I suspect my well known lack of woodworking skills would be enough to ensure its "occasional" nature.
Phil
PS. Nearly 11.00 and nothing much has happened today.
If I were to build you a table, I suspect my well known lack of woodworking skills would be enough to ensure its "occasional" nature.
Phil
PS. Nearly 11.00 and nothing much has happened today.
Posted on: 10 January 2005 by Adam Meredith
OK - but as my house is getting a bit full - any chance of some of those part-time speakers.