Iran, al-Qa'eda and the nuclear bomb
Posted by: 7V on 30 July 2004
The 9/11 Commission has concluded that it was not Iraq that had connections with Islamic terrorists but Iran. The report claims that Iran made "concerted efforts to strengthen relations" with al-Qa'eda and that Iranian border guards were instructed to "facilitate the travel of al-Qa'eda members".
Clearly the Commissions findings have added to fears about Iran's pursuance of a nuclear programme. In fact, the US Congress recently authorised the use of "all appropriate means" to halt it. According to Senator Sam Brownback: "It's better to take forceful action now to end a terror threat and save lives, then to wait for a nuclear 9/11 to take place and then ask why".
Meanwhile, Israel has expressed extreme concern (hardly surprising given Iran's commitment to destroy the Jewish state). Aljazeera.net has reported Public relations head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Commander Seyed Masood Jazayeri, as saying that in retaliation to any attack Iran has proved itself to be "harsh, assertive, hard-hitting and destructive".
"The United States is showing off by threatening to use its wild dog, Israel," he said.
"They will not hesitate to strike Iran if they are capable of it. However, their threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities cannot be realised. They are aware Tehran's reaction will be so harsh that Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth." he warned.
Meanwhile (according to Aljazeera), US-appointed interim Iraqi Defence Minister Hazim Shaalan warned of invading Iran if it did not stop interfering in his country's internal politics.
"I've seen clear interference in Iraqi issues by Iran," the minister said in an interview with The Washington Post in Baghdad on Monday.
"Iran interferes in order to kill democracy."
So ....
My question for debate is what would you learned gentlemen like to see happen here?
a) Ignore Iran's bomb making ambitions. They will go away.
b) Allied pre-emptive action. The US are in so much shit anyway that what difference will another foreign escapade make?
c) Let Israel deal with it. That way we can all make a lot of loud, critical noises while being secretly relieved. If Iran attacks Israel afterwards they can deal with it.
d) Wow, Iraq attacking Iran. Well there's something I hadn't thought of. Great idea.
e) None of the above.
I'm asking you guys because I strongly suspect that action will be taken soon and I'd like to hear your responses in advance, this time.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Clearly the Commissions findings have added to fears about Iran's pursuance of a nuclear programme. In fact, the US Congress recently authorised the use of "all appropriate means" to halt it. According to Senator Sam Brownback: "It's better to take forceful action now to end a terror threat and save lives, then to wait for a nuclear 9/11 to take place and then ask why".
Meanwhile, Israel has expressed extreme concern (hardly surprising given Iran's commitment to destroy the Jewish state). Aljazeera.net has reported Public relations head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Commander Seyed Masood Jazayeri, as saying that in retaliation to any attack Iran has proved itself to be "harsh, assertive, hard-hitting and destructive".
"The United States is showing off by threatening to use its wild dog, Israel," he said.
"They will not hesitate to strike Iran if they are capable of it. However, their threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities cannot be realised. They are aware Tehran's reaction will be so harsh that Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth." he warned.
Meanwhile (according to Aljazeera), US-appointed interim Iraqi Defence Minister Hazim Shaalan warned of invading Iran if it did not stop interfering in his country's internal politics.
"I've seen clear interference in Iraqi issues by Iran," the minister said in an interview with The Washington Post in Baghdad on Monday.
"Iran interferes in order to kill democracy."
So ....
My question for debate is what would you learned gentlemen like to see happen here?
a) Ignore Iran's bomb making ambitions. They will go away.
b) Allied pre-emptive action. The US are in so much shit anyway that what difference will another foreign escapade make?
c) Let Israel deal with it. That way we can all make a lot of loud, critical noises while being secretly relieved. If Iran attacks Israel afterwards they can deal with it.
d) Wow, Iraq attacking Iran. Well there's something I hadn't thought of. Great idea.
e) None of the above.
I'm asking you guys because I strongly suspect that action will be taken soon and I'd like to hear your responses in advance, this time.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Harvey
If Steve's point had anyhting ot do with political correctness then i wouldn't have bothered mentioning it. The restriction on the actual number of minority groups that are allowed to be detained at one time by air mrshalls has come down from the federal government. It is a reaction to a number of very expensive lawsuits that hve been brought following unjustified detentions of large groups of said minority groups. I'm guessing that justification for detention ws something along the lines of groups of men with swarthy complexions and speaking Arabic. This isn't PC, this is the DOT and DOJ trying to reel in overzealous detentions. The reaction seems blunt and ineffective to me but this labelling of anyhting to do woth civil or human rights as being PC is just tiresome and of course incorrect.
I am allowed to make this point, aren't I Steve?
Keef. Sure Arabs have perpetuated a lot of violence, but I'm sure that the Africans have them beat and even more worryingly I've got a niggling feeling that the US has got a darned sight more innocent blood on it's hands than the Arabs. We've given ourself, Israel and anyone else who is doing our bidding a pass and have only received one minor thumping on 9/11 which we redelivered somehting like tenfold on the innocent folk of Afghanistan and Iraq. Sure we hit some bad guys but generally we've wiped out families in their homes and at family gatherings, we've kicked the shit out of them. That doesn't work any more than than getting the kick in the nuts that was 9/11 worked in restraining our antics. The US went on to get the Taliban out which was good, leave the country to turn to shit, bad, get Saddaam instead of using and supporting him, good, screw over the country, kill thousands, leave the place in a worse mess a breeding ground and springboard for terrorism, bad and give Sharon carte blanche, bad on so many levels. Kicking the shit out of people isn't a sustainable or smart policy; isn't that the terrorist's policy?
I am allowed to make this point, aren't I Steve?
Keef. Sure Arabs have perpetuated a lot of violence, but I'm sure that the Africans have them beat and even more worryingly I've got a niggling feeling that the US has got a darned sight more innocent blood on it's hands than the Arabs. We've given ourself, Israel and anyone else who is doing our bidding a pass and have only received one minor thumping on 9/11 which we redelivered somehting like tenfold on the innocent folk of Afghanistan and Iraq. Sure we hit some bad guys but generally we've wiped out families in their homes and at family gatherings, we've kicked the shit out of them. That doesn't work any more than than getting the kick in the nuts that was 9/11 worked in restraining our antics. The US went on to get the Taliban out which was good, leave the country to turn to shit, bad, get Saddaam instead of using and supporting him, good, screw over the country, kill thousands, leave the place in a worse mess a breeding ground and springboard for terrorism, bad and give Sharon carte blanche, bad on so many levels. Kicking the shit out of people isn't a sustainable or smart policy; isn't that the terrorist's policy?
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
White North American's & European's are last people around qualified in preaching to Persia about Civilisation, as well as some of the 21 Countries surrounding it in the region.
Fritz von Changeyourmindset
Fritz von Changeyourmindset
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Steve Toy
quote:
The reaction seems blunt and ineffective to me but this labelling of anyhting to do woth civil or human rights as being PC is just tiresome and of course incorrect.
I personally tend to rail agains political correctness when it stands in the way of responsible decision making for the benefit of all. PC = you may not make an omelette because it involves breaking eggs.
The US federal govt is evidently more scared of lawyers than of terrorists bringing down a plane onto a nuclear power station.
Regards,
Steve.
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Steve Toy
quote:
White North American's & European's are last people around qualified in preaching to Persia about Civilisation, as well as some of the 21 Countries surrounding it in the region.
Persia has plenty of history but it is seriously lacking in civilisation as it clings onto a moral code designed for living in the Middle Ages with all its associated barbarism.
PC is where women's rights are suddenly allowed to evaporate in the name of Religion.
Regards,
Steve.
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
Granted, as one aspect of a big subject, ie (Defining Civilisation) though I
understand Iran (I've never been there) compared to its neighbour's does have
high standard's concerning educating certain classes of women (sound familier ?)
and its own moderate interpretation of the Koran (sound familier - Victorian
Hypocracy ?) as well as having the World's oldest University, before most of us
could speak never mind read or write, which many of us still can't it seems!
Obviously these are just general personal observations and have no merit besides
that; although when thinking of women's rights as one good example you
mentioned, I can't help but be convinced by the many reports and articles I've
read, seen, & heard over the yonks that only the advent of war proved crucial to
women proving their worth in all social fields and that it would have been
impossible for us white North American's & European's to take the God given
rights we men take for granted away from them for a moment longer.
Fritz Von Goandvoteformeloveit'sraining
The west's token Nobel prize last year was an excellent move (hardly reported
there) but is slowly making headway I feelif the Sun is to be believed.
understand Iran (I've never been there) compared to its neighbour's does have
high standard's concerning educating certain classes of women (sound familier ?)
and its own moderate interpretation of the Koran (sound familier - Victorian
Hypocracy ?) as well as having the World's oldest University, before most of us
could speak never mind read or write, which many of us still can't it seems!
Obviously these are just general personal observations and have no merit besides
that; although when thinking of women's rights as one good example you
mentioned, I can't help but be convinced by the many reports and articles I've
read, seen, & heard over the yonks that only the advent of war proved crucial to
women proving their worth in all social fields and that it would have been
impossible for us white North American's & European's to take the God given
rights we men take for granted away from them for a moment longer.
Fritz Von Goandvoteformeloveit'sraining
The west's token Nobel prize last year was an excellent move (hardly reported
there) but is slowly making headway I feelif the Sun is to be believed.
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
As one afterthought of which there are unsuprisingly many, I recall that as UK put the Shar & His Missus up after he got booted out by the bearded one Brutain still remained closely tied diplomatically, even after the London Siege, as it was very much to out financial advantage.
Not wishing to ponder on one aspect too long, but a well documented account of female chid abuse comes to mind also regarding Iran. A so-called arranged marriage between an old geezer and a 12/13 year old girl, where sexual relations were definately on the cards, yet that Countries laws expresslly forbade such matrimony. Countries are I suppose more important than individuals, but this one in question just happened to be good old England, where they were living at the time, how easy it is to forget if you read the wrong papers, innit..
Fritz Von Bloodonthetracks
The Hypocracy aspect is my point, how can trust possibly be built on such flimsey past history between us ?
Where's my beer ?
Not wishing to ponder on one aspect too long, but a well documented account of female chid abuse comes to mind also regarding Iran. A so-called arranged marriage between an old geezer and a 12/13 year old girl, where sexual relations were definately on the cards, yet that Countries laws expresslly forbade such matrimony. Countries are I suppose more important than individuals, but this one in question just happened to be good old England, where they were living at the time, how easy it is to forget if you read the wrong papers, innit..
Fritz Von Bloodonthetracks
The Hypocracy aspect is my point, how can trust possibly be built on such flimsey past history between us ?
Where's my beer ?
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Roy T
The October Surprise?
An intresting option if the USA plus proxy forces attempt to sort out the Iranian nuclear facilities in the period just preceeding the election the action may well lead to a rather unexpected October Surprise with the USA and proxy forces grabbing yet another tar baby. I feel prehaps a "shit or bust" something just before an election a la Thatcher may well be a bridge too far for this administration but as this is what the people voted for four years ago then that is the future that way well await them.
www.defense-and-society.org
An intresting option if the USA plus proxy forces attempt to sort out the Iranian nuclear facilities in the period just preceeding the election the action may well lead to a rather unexpected October Surprise with the USA and proxy forces grabbing yet another tar baby. I feel prehaps a "shit or bust" something just before an election a la Thatcher may well be a bridge too far for this administration but as this is what the people voted for four years ago then that is the future that way well await them.
www.defense-and-society.org
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by 7V
Interesting article, Roy.
Even if every country (except Israel) would tolerate an Iranian nuclear capability, it is inconceivable that any Western nation would risk the possibility that al-Qa'eda could gain access to such weapons.
Something's going to happen. As usual in world politics, talk of morals or ethics is irrelevant. We are, as always, talking expediency. Something's going to happen - there's no doubt - and my fear is that it won't be tidy.
Perhaps the Russians, seeking to regain some world influence, could do the job. I'd like to see the Egyptians sort it out but it would almost certainly be too much of a danger for the relatively fragile grasp their government has on power.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Even if every country (except Israel) would tolerate an Iranian nuclear capability, it is inconceivable that any Western nation would risk the possibility that al-Qa'eda could gain access to such weapons.
Something's going to happen. As usual in world politics, talk of morals or ethics is irrelevant. We are, as always, talking expediency. Something's going to happen - there's no doubt - and my fear is that it won't be tidy.
Perhaps the Russians, seeking to regain some world influence, could do the job. I'd like to see the Egyptians sort it out but it would almost certainly be too much of a danger for the relatively fragile grasp their government has on power.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by Roy T
Egypt could become a policeman in the area as they have a peace treaty with Israel (and have support of USA) whilst being anti westen enough to have street cared with others in the area. Russia might be a busted flush because force projection may be a problem without the help of the USA and the troubles on the south of the old Russian empire tend to place them towards the western end of the spectrum. The other forces in the area such as Pakistan may well be acceptable to both the west and others but with too many problems at home due to cooperation with the west and internal clampdown against homegrown hardcore Talibanesq factions from neighboring countries they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea plus coming to power on the back of a coup does not help all that much. The only people on the block that have the might to take on a task would be the Chinese but due to lack of voting and intrest in things via the UN, problems with Muslims in the west of the country and friction due to Taiwan I feel that they may just sit behind their borders biding their time until a suitable low hanging fruit can be plucked and will signal their return onto the world stage. China must I think be able to make a grand entrance and get things 100% right or else they will do nothing at all.
So who is left?
Japan - has money, wants a permanent seat on the UN security council, needs oil but has no backing for foreign expeditions.
Germany - Same problems as Japan.
France - not too keen on the USA & UK, too closely connected to the old Iraqi to be acceptable to the USA.
Faux Pax Americana?
So who is left?
Japan - has money, wants a permanent seat on the UN security council, needs oil but has no backing for foreign expeditions.
Germany - Same problems as Japan.
France - not too keen on the USA & UK, too closely connected to the old Iraqi to be acceptable to the USA.
Faux Pax Americana?
Posted on: 01 August 2004 by 7V
It seems pretty clear-cut then. Now, who's going to tell the Egyptions?
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by bigmick
The League like the UN had failures and successes but the failures were not necessarily of the League itself but of the attitudes of the nations involved who were ultimately unwilling to surrender their ideas of sovereignty to another organisation. As I’ve said the UK constitutional monarchy and the US federal republic have had some very dark hours, but it doesn’t mean that they are terminally flawed models.
As you well know, that isn’t what I said. The undermining of the UN can be laid largely at the door of the US, not the majority of members whom it has bullied and bought.
In every conflict there is a gap between truth and perception and whilst there were significant crimes committed by the IDF at Jenin, the media leapt prematurely to the conclusion that there was a massacre there. The story of the massacre thrived for 2 main reasons; firstly the Israelis consistently refused to allow any independent observers or medical aid into the camp to verify the stories and help the wounded which compounded the notion (rightly or wrongly) that they were hiding something and secondly, based on how Israel has actually acted in the past, readerships and audiences didn’t view the notion of the IDF carrying out this massacre as particularly extraordinary, unbelievable or unexpected. FWIW the UK has carried out some shameful acts in NI from ignoring civil rights abuses, heavy handed sectarian policing through internment to collusion between the Army units and Loyalists paramilitaries. However in their defence they’ve realised that they weren’t going to stem the mounting death toll by adding to it and that the only way to get out of the hole was to ensure equal rights, treatment, opportunities, cross community policing and negotiation on the aspirations of all parties to the conflict. Much to the irritation of some people, who it transpired knew precious little about the history of either conflict, I’ve suggested many times in the past that the Israel/Palestine conflict could benefit greatly from some of the conflict resolution lessons learnt in NI.
If you’re referring to Osirak, no I hadn’t forgotten about it, it’s just that it was a nuclear reactor and not a nuclear deterrent and so not pertinent to my point. It’s attacks such as this, Operation Sphinx and Operation Damocles before it, that reinforce the trepidation that people feel in respect of Israel’s behaviour and it’s complete disregard as to the antipathy it creates. As to my nuclear deterrent point, why do you think the West and their immediate neighbours prefer “jaw jaw to war war” in their approach to North Korea. Do you think it’s because they see them as fundamentally good eggs who’ll see sense after a good chit chat?
I couldn’t give two shits about Saddam and he can rot in hell, but isn’t this the kind of idle, baseless I don’t know anything but what-if, speculation that’s just got 10-15,000 innocent Iraqis and 1000+ US/UK troops killed and 3500 wounded. Blair is still 100% sure that he had WMDs so who’s to say it would have been any different?
Can I take it that this is information over and beyond the cut and paste from http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Threats_to_Israel/Iran.html
Can you direct me to this? And I assume you’ll also have the specific threat that they are to be used against Israel or any other country
Your own views make pretty poor reading. It’s like the kind of self-deluding, head in the sand nonsense that Arye peddles. For myself, friends, colleagues, I can’t say that I’m aware that we’re immersed in a sea of Arabs eager to force their opinions on us. I would say that my contact with Jews would be considerately greater. I fail to see how the oil relationship which you crudely describe would lead to the public perception of Israel as a threat. The US is hugely dependent on the Middle East oil so what’s your take on that? I’m sure that the media is a factor here but I take the main weekly broadsheets, watch the BBC and Sky News and scan the US news sites and I simply can’t see that that any one element of the British media is wildly pro-Arab or anti-Israeli. Maybe you’re suggesting that the entire British media is in on the conspiracy in which case you are beyond help. I have read extensively on this subject through the years and don’t need to rely on the vagaries of the world’s media to let me know when a situation is as desperate, rotten to the core and in need of radical, external intervention as this. There is undoubtedly anti-Semitism as there are those who despise everything Arab, but in the arena of what passes as rational debate, the old fallback of anti-Semitism is pathetic and not really worthy of comment.
I’ve honestly never heard anyone hold this position; it is patently ludicrous and I am at a loss as to what “trendy” circles these would be.
Does it answer my question? Well, I was already more than aware of the views of the Jewish virtual library, I just thought that you might have evidence of some specific and recent direct threat or unambiguous act of aggression that made such an attack imperative. Cheers again for the paste.
What will happen will happen with Iran and there will be no shortage of people who will support the US and its agents irrespective of moral, ethics and human rights. The thing is, everyone knows that there are bad men with bad intentions doing bad things in Iran and Israel and I concede that measures have to be taken, but if the powers that be aren’t going to be even-handed and intelligent about it, then if anything, it’s going to inflame the problem. As we should have learnt from 9/11, Al- Queda don’t need the “nukes” that hysterical ninnies like Toy are bleating on about, just ingenuity, luck and a chink in the enemy’s defences, next month, next year, 10 years from now and they’ve got us. What a shit way for us to have to live our lives.
Nice one. That’s the kind of visionary thought that’ll keep the body baggers busy on both sides for the foreseeable future, and throughout the Middle East if Roy’s link plays out.
quote:.
Of course the fact that the UN is driven primarily by the self-interest of its members also undermines its legitimacy and, ultimately, its effectiveness.
As you well know, that isn’t what I said. The undermining of the UN can be laid largely at the door of the US, not the majority of members whom it has bullied and bought.
quote:
There is a difference between the truth and what is "perceived at large".
In every conflict there is a gap between truth and perception and whilst there were significant crimes committed by the IDF at Jenin, the media leapt prematurely to the conclusion that there was a massacre there. The story of the massacre thrived for 2 main reasons; firstly the Israelis consistently refused to allow any independent observers or medical aid into the camp to verify the stories and help the wounded which compounded the notion (rightly or wrongly) that they were hiding something and secondly, based on how Israel has actually acted in the past, readerships and audiences didn’t view the notion of the IDF carrying out this massacre as particularly extraordinary, unbelievable or unexpected. FWIW the UK has carried out some shameful acts in NI from ignoring civil rights abuses, heavy handed sectarian policing through internment to collusion between the Army units and Loyalists paramilitaries. However in their defence they’ve realised that they weren’t going to stem the mounting death toll by adding to it and that the only way to get out of the hole was to ensure equal rights, treatment, opportunities, cross community policing and negotiation on the aspirations of all parties to the conflict. Much to the irritation of some people, who it transpired knew precious little about the history of either conflict, I’ve suggested many times in the past that the Israel/Palestine conflict could benefit greatly from some of the conflict resolution lessons learnt in NI.
If you’re referring to Osirak, no I hadn’t forgotten about it, it’s just that it was a nuclear reactor and not a nuclear deterrent and so not pertinent to my point. It’s attacks such as this, Operation Sphinx and Operation Damocles before it, that reinforce the trepidation that people feel in respect of Israel’s behaviour and it’s complete disregard as to the antipathy it creates. As to my nuclear deterrent point, why do you think the West and their immediate neighbours prefer “jaw jaw to war war” in their approach to North Korea. Do you think it’s because they see them as fundamentally good eggs who’ll see sense after a good chit chat?
quote:
had Iraq had a nuclear capability, the events of the last 10 years would have been very different.
I couldn’t give two shits about Saddam and he can rot in hell, but isn’t this the kind of idle, baseless I don’t know anything but what-if, speculation that’s just got 10-15,000 innocent Iraqis and 1000+ US/UK troops killed and 3500 wounded. Blair is still 100% sure that he had WMDs so who’s to say it would have been any different?
quote:
Iran does not currently have a nuclear capability but the outside world, including Israel, have a pretty good idea of when it will come on-line.
Can I take it that this is information over and beyond the cut and paste from http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Threats_to_Israel/Iran.html
Can you direct me to this? And I assume you’ll also have the specific threat that they are to be used against Israel or any other country
quote:
I have my own views on why Israel is perceived as such a threat.
Your own views make pretty poor reading. It’s like the kind of self-deluding, head in the sand nonsense that Arye peddles. For myself, friends, colleagues, I can’t say that I’m aware that we’re immersed in a sea of Arabs eager to force their opinions on us. I would say that my contact with Jews would be considerately greater. I fail to see how the oil relationship which you crudely describe would lead to the public perception of Israel as a threat. The US is hugely dependent on the Middle East oil so what’s your take on that? I’m sure that the media is a factor here but I take the main weekly broadsheets, watch the BBC and Sky News and scan the US news sites and I simply can’t see that that any one element of the British media is wildly pro-Arab or anti-Israeli. Maybe you’re suggesting that the entire British media is in on the conspiracy in which case you are beyond help. I have read extensively on this subject through the years and don’t need to rely on the vagaries of the world’s media to let me know when a situation is as desperate, rotten to the core and in need of radical, external intervention as this. There is undoubtedly anti-Semitism as there are those who despise everything Arab, but in the arena of what passes as rational debate, the old fallback of anti-Semitism is pathetic and not really worthy of comment.
quote:
Blaming all terrorism on the actions of the State of Israel is a position, that whilst currently trendy in some circles, is not accurate or helpful.
I’ve honestly never heard anyone hold this position; it is patently ludicrous and I am at a loss as to what “trendy” circles these would be.
Does it answer my question? Well, I was already more than aware of the views of the Jewish virtual library, I just thought that you might have evidence of some specific and recent direct threat or unambiguous act of aggression that made such an attack imperative. Cheers again for the paste.
What will happen will happen with Iran and there will be no shortage of people who will support the US and its agents irrespective of moral, ethics and human rights. The thing is, everyone knows that there are bad men with bad intentions doing bad things in Iran and Israel and I concede that measures have to be taken, but if the powers that be aren’t going to be even-handed and intelligent about it, then if anything, it’s going to inflame the problem. As we should have learnt from 9/11, Al- Queda don’t need the “nukes” that hysterical ninnies like Toy are bleating on about, just ingenuity, luck and a chink in the enemy’s defences, next month, next year, 10 years from now and they’ve got us. What a shit way for us to have to live our lives.
quote:
"why they've engendered so much loathing"
- because they're there.
Nice one. That’s the kind of visionary thought that’ll keep the body baggers busy on both sides for the foreseeable future, and throughout the Middle East if Roy’s link plays out.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by 7V
quote:
Originally posted by bigmick:
Can I take it that this is information over and beyond the cut and paste from http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Threats_to_Israel/Iran.html
Can you direct me to this? And I assume you’ll also have the specific threat that they are to be used against Israel or any other country.
So you want me to give details of a specific threat that Iran plans to use nuclear weapons against Israel or any other country. As Iran has denied that it's engaged in the development of a nuclear weapon capability, this might be a little difficult to obtain. Were you looking for something along the lines of "I had dinner with the Ayatolla last week and he told me..."?
I have no details of a specific nuclear threat. However, what concerns me in particular are the links between Iran and terrorist organizations including Hezbollah and al-Qa'eda.
quote:
I’m no expert in Iranian matters so can you help me with details of Iranian attacks on Israel or specific threats?
This was your question that I originally attempted to answer. Rather than giving you any more specific pastes from articles on the Web, I suggest that you type the following into Google:
"Iran Buenos Aires terrorist attacks on the Israeli Embassy in 1992" - 2,820 responses
"Iran Hezbollah" - 112,000 responses
"Iran Argentine Jewish communal building 1994" - 2,290 responses
"Iran links al-Qa'eda" - 3,950 responses
If you're expecting me to quote you Iranian sources you're asking more than is reasonable, although you can find some interesting articles on Aljazeera.net (that renowned organ of Zionism) by typing "Iran" into the country code of their advanced search.
Please excuse me for using references from the Internet to make my points. I'm afraid my personal experience with Iran is somewhat limited. Still, by doing a little research in this area, you can undoubtedly increase your own 'expertise in Iranian matters'.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
Obviously like certain other issues this is one that can/will be discussed until
the cows come home. Without being too simplistic though "TRUST" as I've
mentioned before and the building of it are the essence of the whole of
Grandma's Cheesecake as it were, as throughout human history. Thatcher said
"Nuclear Weapon's cannot be dis-invented" the one and only point I can't deny,
coming from her.
There are, and have always been certain diplomatic and other
mechanisms in place to avoid last minute or unwarranted intiation of hostilities
that would be in nobody's interest (Big Scale).
Mindset and psychological
attitudes towards Nations can change overnight from friend to foe and
vice-versa the level of that change of feeling is controlled by these
afore-mentioned mechanisms, which if didn't exist we certainly wouldn't be
sitting here reading my rubbish, but I'm sure a little imagination can go a long
way amongs't long established Civilisations ; can't it ?
Fritz Von Overcomethatfearandwe'reallonawinner
P.S. Transparency and mutual co-operation will eventually be the only option (as always) and usually puts those with a seperate agenda (IE A Q & CO ) well and truly out of business, cos "Money can't buy you love" innit:
the cows come home. Without being too simplistic though "TRUST" as I've
mentioned before and the building of it are the essence of the whole of
Grandma's Cheesecake as it were, as throughout human history. Thatcher said
"Nuclear Weapon's cannot be dis-invented" the one and only point I can't deny,
coming from her.
There are, and have always been certain diplomatic and other
mechanisms in place to avoid last minute or unwarranted intiation of hostilities
that would be in nobody's interest (Big Scale).
Mindset and psychological
attitudes towards Nations can change overnight from friend to foe and
vice-versa the level of that change of feeling is controlled by these
afore-mentioned mechanisms, which if didn't exist we certainly wouldn't be
sitting here reading my rubbish, but I'm sure a little imagination can go a long
way amongs't long established Civilisations ; can't it ?
Fritz Von Overcomethatfearandwe'reallonawinner
P.S. Transparency and mutual co-operation will eventually be the only option (as always) and usually puts those with a seperate agenda (IE A Q & CO ) well and truly out of business, cos "Money can't buy you love" innit:
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Steve Toy
quote:
As we should have learnt from 9/11, Al- Queda don’t need the “nukes” that hysterical ninnies like Toy are bleating on about, just ingenuity, luck and a chink in the enemy’s defences, next month, next year, 10 years from now and they’ve got us.
What they may need (in your humble opinion) and what they actually aim to do are two different things entirely. Bin Laden made it very clear back in 2001 that he wanted to obtain nuclear weapons. Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has links with Al Quada. Iran could not use its nukes offensively without passing them onto a third party like Al Quada although a fundamentalist Islamic sense of martyrdom and righteousness may well motivate them to use nukes offensively and not just as a deterrent directly or via Al Quada.
Regards,
Steve.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by bigmick
quote:
I’m no expert in Iranian matters so can you help me with details of Iranian attacks on Israel or specific threats?
My apologies, I guess that given the appetite for military action, I should have spelt out that I was looking for something contemporary and compelling which would constitute a solid case for a unilateral attack on another country. I thought, wrongly as it transpires, that you would most likely possess such evidence. I was not, I confess, asking for or expecting a wholesale lift from a popular Jewish website that I'd alreay read. Thanks for the google how-to, I was really struggling with that.
In the build up to the attack on Iraq, against the very real threat from Al-Queda, many commentators, who had been openly critical of Saddam and the supporting role of the western world, wondered “Why Iraq and most importantly why now?”. The answer they got was Colin Powell’s presentation at the UN, countless reports of imminent threat, links with Al-Queda, hints at 9/11 links and a dossier from the government which, IIRC, was a wholesale lift from the internet. It was all cobblers of course, but the lesson, which doesn’t appear to have been learned, is surely that any unilateral attack should be preceded by exhaustive and independent intelligence, double and triple checked, marathon intensive negotiation and the absolute certainty that the action will solve the problem and not in fact exasercbate the situation. One has to be sceptical that Iran is suddenly such a huge issue, when 18 months ago we were being told that Iraq was the lynchpin of the war against terrorism. The question “why just Iran and why now” doesn’t seem to be attracting any more convincing answers.
I say again, all WMDs should be removed from the Middle East. Independent inspectors with armoured support and sound intelligence should get free and open access to all materials and all programs and installations should be dismantled according to a tight timetable. Once the findings are properly analysed, if it is found that there is failure to comply fully and that there is a threat, security resolutions should be sought authorising specific, targeted action and no country, Israel included, should “get a pass on receiving the big thumping”. If everyone’s subject to the same treatment then none can argue the need for a nuclear deterrent at which point the only reason for having nuclear weapons is the desire to have one’s own way in the region through wielding disproportionate power.
quote:
What they may need (in your humble opinion)
First off, my opinion in this matter hasn’t been humble in a very long time and regardless, it isn’t opinion it’s fact; 9/11 was the result of ingenuity, luck, a chink in US defence, oh and some box cutters and mace. No nuclear warhead that I was aware of.
Secondly the rest of your unsubstantiated spiel and conjecture was rolled out about Iraq. There’s may well be some truth in it but there’s been a lot of suffering at the hands of such idle speculation. The Arab-bashing, boneheaded, nuke fest you seem to seek should be avoided and replaced with a measured, intelligent and even-handed response throughout the region.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by 7V
quote:
Originally posted by bigmick:
I say again, __all__ WMDs should be removed from the Middle East. Independent inspectors with armoured support and sound intelligence should get free and open access to all materials and all programs and installations should be dismantled according to a tight timetable. Once the findings are properly analysed, if it is found that there is failure to comply fully and that there is a threat, security resolutions should be sought authorising specific, targeted action and no country, Israel included, should “get a pass on receiving the big thumping”. If everyone’s subject to the same treatment then none can argue the need for a nuclear deterrent at which point the only reason for having nuclear weapons is the desire to have one’s own way in the region through wielding disproportionate power. ...
... The Arab-bashing, boneheaded, nuke fest you seem to seek should be avoided and replaced with a measured, intelligent and even-handed response throughout the region.
To deal with the second quote first ...
I don't know who the 'you' is, seeking an Arab-bashing, boneheaded, nuke fest. I certainly do not consider myself an 'Arab basher' and the idea of any kind of 'nuke fest' horrifies me. In fact, I can't find anyone fitting this description on this thread.
FWIW, my view is that this sort of exaggerated response hardly helps any reasoned debate and often results in a descent into name calling and personal insults. Is it really necessary?
My opinion is that Israel's nuclear deterrent is precisely that, a deterrent. As Fritz von Occasionallypostsinsights has said, it comes down to TRUST and I'm clear where my trust lies. However, this is my opinion and, when it comes to the big decisions taken in the corridors of power, I will not be consulted.
However, moving on, I'm concerned about the practicalities of your suggested approach (ie. "Independent inspectors with armoured support and sound intelligence should get free and open access to all materials and all programs and installations should be dismantled according to a tight timetable." etc.).
It would be extremely difficult to implement, particularly so during the time-scale of the development of the Iranian nuclear capability, which was the subject of this thread and which, due to the links between Iran and terror groups, is perceived as the biggest threat by Western powers. Iran currently denies that they are developing a nuclear capability. Why would they allow it to be stopped?
But assuming such a plan was adopted and accepted, would inspectors be perceived as truly independent and would any party trust them to dismantle their enemies' facilities as their own?
Would they find what they're looking for, particularly in a country the size of Iran and would they gain access in time? (How long did Saddam Hussein procrastinate during the process of weapons inspectors gaining access to supposed Iraqi sites? Could we afford that procrastination this time?)
Crucially, would they be allowed to work unimpeded both by governments and terrorist groups?
Equally crucially, where would the "sound intelligence" that you speak of come from?
Finally, wouldn't some of the parties involved insist that in addition to dimantling the Jewish and Muslim bombs, the Christian ones should go too?
Bigmick, do the US, Russia, Britain, France, N Korea, India, Pakistan, China, et al all pass your 'twitch test'?
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Steve Toy
quote:
I don't know who the 'you' is, seeking an Arab-bashing, boneheaded, nuke fest. I certainly do not consider myself an 'Arab basher' and the idea of any kind of 'nuke fest' horrifies me. In fact, I can't find anyone fitting this description on this thread.
The 'you' is in fact me, and I'm not seeking an Arab-bashing, boneheaded, nuke fest as you rightly pointed out.
However, forget the PC bollox of if-Iran-is-to-be-nuke-free-then-so-must-Israel-else-it's-not-fair because for Israel, nukes are a much needed deterrent when surrounded by Arab nations who, with the exception of Egypt, want to wipe them off the face of the Earth.
OTOH, for Iran, nukes wouldn't necessarily be solely used as a deterrent; they may well be used offensively.
Forget wishy-washy token fairness and put our security first - Iran's nuclear programme must be stopped as it poses a threat to our very existence. Israel's nuclear capability does not as the last fifty years or so have proven.
Regards,
Steve.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
Isn't Mr Bin Bag's main motive to Screw Saudi Arabia, and build a lovely Worldwide rift between so-called Islamists & Crusaders al 'la
Bush (his words not mine) ?, just thought it worth reminding everybody, innit.
Fritz Von Seemslikesomearedoingthejobforhim ?
Bush (his words not mine) ?, just thought it worth reminding everybody, innit.
Fritz Von Seemslikesomearedoingthejobforhim ?
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Roy T
Fritz,
IIRC OSBL is a follower of Wahhabism and his view of the teachings are such that "if you are not one of us then you are against us" be you a Sunni, Shiite, Kharijis, Druze, Alawi, Ismali, Ahmadiyyah or a non-believer. It is him against the rest and until most of the sects and religions listed above agrre that he is a problem not too much can be done. I feel an idea that has spread across many countries is far, far harder to reason with than one country as a country has assets that may be attacked but an idea has a neverending supply of people willing to die for the cause.
The age of asymetric war has truly arrived.
IIRC OSBL is a follower of Wahhabism and his view of the teachings are such that "if you are not one of us then you are against us" be you a Sunni, Shiite, Kharijis, Druze, Alawi, Ismali, Ahmadiyyah or a non-believer. It is him against the rest and until most of the sects and religions listed above agrre that he is a problem not too much can be done. I feel an idea that has spread across many countries is far, far harder to reason with than one country as a country has assets that may be attacked but an idea has a neverending supply of people willing to die for the cause.
The age of asymetric war has truly arrived.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
Sorry, but I don't buy that argument, mercenaries work for hard cash irrespective of where they come from or go to, they are motivated by that and that alone.
Fritz Von Religionhasfuckalltodowithit
Fritz Von Religionhasfuckalltodowithit
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by Roy T
I have always thought OSBL is quite rich in his own right after a big pile of family money had passed to him, I also reckon he made a fair bit fighting for the USA against the Russians a few years ago so maybe he has enough to finance his deeds for now and the near future. I do hope you are right about him being in it just for the cash as then a good chance exists that he could be brought off for a goodly heap of cash. If he is in it for the power, respect of both people and God then we are well and truly stuffed.
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by 7V
Osama Bin Laden doesn't give a shit about money. He only cares about his cause and his warped claim on immortality.
I don't accept that we're stuffed, though. It will be tough and bloody but he will eventually lose his support and his life - and not necessarily in that order.
Sure, our civilization is doomed but my money is on climate change rather than terrorism as the ultimate WMD.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
[This message was edited by 7V on Tue 03 August 2004 at 1:49.]
I don't accept that we're stuffed, though. It will be tough and bloody but he will eventually lose his support and his life - and not necessarily in that order.
Sure, our civilization is doomed but my money is on climate change rather than terrorism as the ultimate WMD.
Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music
[This message was edited by 7V on Tue 03 August 2004 at 1:49.]
Posted on: 02 August 2004 by bigmick
Steve, for God’s sake read the post. My “nuke fest” remark was clearly made in my second point addressing the last in the Mr. Toy’s series of over the top remarks. Funny, my whole point is that the idea of a “nuke fest” terrifies me and I’m sure a few others, hence my loathing of language such as “Iran needs to be warned that the first city to be flattened by an Al Queda nuke sourced from there would result in Tehran being wiped off the face of the Earth.” IMO, careless, redneck attitudes like this are boneheaded, advocate the bashing of Arabs and seem none to shy at the prospect of using nuclear weapons in the process. There were no personal insults, just my impression of the attitude.
Well your thread starter asked forum members what they would like to happen with in respect of impending action in respect of Iran’s nuclear facilities. I’ve proposed an option, but sitting here at my desk, I don’t have all the answers to hand. I think that throwing up obstacles as to why it probably won’t work is putting the cart before the horse Steve. Surely the best idea is to agree where you want to get to, the result that is most likely to benefit everyone in the region and offer long-term sustainable security and peace. Then you sort out the practicalities, iron out difficulties, give ultimatums, miss them, then pick up and and try to actually move forward without wading through a sea of blood. Again looking at NI, every time any peace negotiations were even suggested, as regular as clockwork, the naysayers on both sides would come out in force screaming that it would never work, that neither sides could be trusted to carry out their side of the agreement etc. etc. Arguments like this are designed to kill the notion of peace before it’s conception and it’s so often the party that wants everybody else to change around it that will try to sink the ship with a thousand arrows. Your objections are all valid but again I say the likely difficulties are not restricted to Iran. Let’s remember that since the secret construction of Dimona in 1950s, Israel has been engaged in the world’s most wide ranging deception and denial of nuclear capability. However these are just problems and obstacles which can be overcome, once the end point and the major stepping stones are agreed upon.
North Korea, India and Pakistan and anyone in the Middle East I would regard as twitchy. Russia, China and US less so. Britain and France the least twitchy.
I find such lack of basic understanding truly jaw-dropping and the wishy-washy tag bloody hilarious coming as it does from someone who seems to be simply repeating the same waffly, unsubstantiated hysterical assertions i.e.
“wouldn’t necessarily” and “may well be” oh well yes you’ve quite obviously done your homework there, best drop bombs on them then. Wishy-washy my arse.
I think that Fritz and Roy are closer to the problem that our governments should be dealing with. OSBL must be beside himself with smugness. To have the US/UK take their eye off him, sort out Saddam, abuse Muslim prisoners, mess up Iraq and drum up a whole new tranche of support for him must have a been a gift beyond his wildest dreams. To have the possibility of US and/ or Israel attacking Iran, well that’s a month of Christmas’ and a birthday rolled into one; it’s a neglect and diversion which will indeed lead to the stuffing that Roy describes.
What a powerful tool it would be to have Muslims throughout on our side, working together with us, united in the desire to stop this bloke. Yeah, good idea…..still, let’s bomb them first and work it out later. He must be absolutely pissing himself.
quote:
I'm concerned about the practicalities of your suggested approach
Well your thread starter asked forum members what they would like to happen with in respect of impending action in respect of Iran’s nuclear facilities. I’ve proposed an option, but sitting here at my desk, I don’t have all the answers to hand. I think that throwing up obstacles as to why it probably won’t work is putting the cart before the horse Steve. Surely the best idea is to agree where you want to get to, the result that is most likely to benefit everyone in the region and offer long-term sustainable security and peace. Then you sort out the practicalities, iron out difficulties, give ultimatums, miss them, then pick up and and try to actually move forward without wading through a sea of blood. Again looking at NI, every time any peace negotiations were even suggested, as regular as clockwork, the naysayers on both sides would come out in force screaming that it would never work, that neither sides could be trusted to carry out their side of the agreement etc. etc. Arguments like this are designed to kill the notion of peace before it’s conception and it’s so often the party that wants everybody else to change around it that will try to sink the ship with a thousand arrows. Your objections are all valid but again I say the likely difficulties are not restricted to Iran. Let’s remember that since the secret construction of Dimona in 1950s, Israel has been engaged in the world’s most wide ranging deception and denial of nuclear capability. However these are just problems and obstacles which can be overcome, once the end point and the major stepping stones are agreed upon.
North Korea, India and Pakistan and anyone in the Middle East I would regard as twitchy. Russia, China and US less so. Britain and France the least twitchy.
quote:
wishy-washy token fairness
I find such lack of basic understanding truly jaw-dropping and the wishy-washy tag bloody hilarious coming as it does from someone who seems to be simply repeating the same waffly, unsubstantiated hysterical assertions i.e.
quote:
for Iran, nukes wouldn't necessarily be solely used as a deterrent; they may well be used offensively.
“wouldn’t necessarily” and “may well be” oh well yes you’ve quite obviously done your homework there, best drop bombs on them then. Wishy-washy my arse.
I think that Fritz and Roy are closer to the problem that our governments should be dealing with. OSBL must be beside himself with smugness. To have the US/UK take their eye off him, sort out Saddam, abuse Muslim prisoners, mess up Iraq and drum up a whole new tranche of support for him must have a been a gift beyond his wildest dreams. To have the possibility of US and/ or Israel attacking Iran, well that’s a month of Christmas’ and a birthday rolled into one; it’s a neglect and diversion which will indeed lead to the stuffing that Roy describes.
What a powerful tool it would be to have Muslims throughout on our side, working together with us, united in the desire to stop this bloke. Yeah, good idea…..still, let’s bomb them first and work it out later. He must be absolutely pissing himself.
Posted on: 03 August 2004 by Berlin Fritz
Obviously Bin Bag is not personally interested in mega dosh for himself, but I would suggest that as his banking options are limited somewhat, hard cash here & there is most usefull for paying the bar bills, innit.
Fritz Von Haveyouevermetaniranian ?
P.S. Cheers, I didn't know there were 2 Fritz's on this forum ?
Fritz Von Haveyouevermetaniranian ?
P.S. Cheers, I didn't know there were 2 Fritz's on this forum ?
Posted on: 03 August 2004 by Roy T
Bad boys INC.
The ones that not too long ago were caught dealng in atomic bits and pieces and then pardoned by the governemnt who came to power on the back of an armed insurrection a few years ago?
The ones who have made no attempt to export atomic bits and pieces?
The ones who have held elections withing the last couple of years.
The ones who for the past generation have had a policy of selling atoimic bits and pices to whoever has the cash?
The ones who kicked out the CIA for running operations within thir country and caused a peanut farmer not to get a second term in office.
Real terror culprit - The Washington Times: Commentary - August 02, 2004
The ones that not too long ago were caught dealng in atomic bits and pieces and then pardoned by the governemnt who came to power on the back of an armed insurrection a few years ago?
The ones who have made no attempt to export atomic bits and pieces?
The ones who have held elections withing the last couple of years.
The ones who for the past generation have had a policy of selling atoimic bits and pices to whoever has the cash?
The ones who kicked out the CIA for running operations within thir country and caused a peanut farmer not to get a second term in office.
Real terror culprit - The Washington Times: Commentary - August 02, 2004