The US election

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I find your statement above very interesting. Are you sure it's right?

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Steve

Fair point, there’s no definitely right or wrong on this one but any commentary I’ve watched and read has concluded that Bush had most to gain from the visual reaffirmation of the terrorist threat in the form of Bin Laden’s appearance. To an electorate ramped up on Fox’s terrorist threat <elevated>, this was the ghoulish face at the window that you try to put to the back of your mind. My own personal response to it was that Kerry was well and truly stuffed. Bin Laden is as sharp as a tack and nobody has seriously suggested that he appeared, when Kerry was already in a very strong position, to clearly urge support for Kerry. Didn’t you see the Dead Ringers sketch?

Militant and political extremists can’t exist in a vacuum. Bush needs Bin Laden and/or AQ to keep the people in fear and needing protection from a supposedly strong leader. Bin Laden needs Muslims to suffer, to be oppressed and humiliated. When the Russians were in Afghanistan they performed this role, the CIA trained and funded him and then when the Russians went, the US and Israel stepped into the fray. Chechnya opened up and the scenario is being played out similarly on that stage. The attack on Iraq, removal of Saddam, Abu Ghraib and the subsequent debacle is manna from heaven. The only potential spanner in the ointment would be the possibility that Kerry might have adopted a less aggressive policy on Iraq, might have actually tried to think of a non-military solution and would have tried to heal the rifts in the western alliance. It’s difficult to drum up support for a radical fundamentalist cause when it appears that there may be an equitable, viable non-violent solution in the offing. NI is the perfect example. During the more wretched years of Thatcher’s regime, she faced down the hunger strikers in the maze and whilst claiming victory in standing firm, the IRA were snowed under with financial support and volunteers signing up for active duty.

So anyway Bush is back, Falluja will be the first of many towns to bombed flat, the loss of life and proprerty will be tremendous and Bin Laden will rejoice, as more irate Muslims vow to avenge the deaths of their fellow Muslims and flock to his call.

I’m loath to open up the Madrid bombings again but I thought it was now accepted wisdom that the bombings and subsequent ousting of Asnar wasn’t a cause and effect, in that it was Aznar’s attempted manipulation of the incident which outraged the electorate and galvanized support for the opposition party, producing a greatly increased turnout from young voters.

I wonder how Tony Blair will approach the next term. He is almost definately having to play the middle-east peace agreement on his own. His attitude towards GWB may actually change from here on in - in fact, it is going to have to for his own sake.
Bottom line is that Kerry just wasn't quite good enough to seduce the last few million voters. Was he the best candidate?
Doesn't matter now anyway.
I haven't been to the USA for over a year now, and I am looking forward to getting back to sit in a bar and chew it over sometime.
Mick's straw poll was done on a cruise holiday. So no-one under 65-70 for a start and all fairly wealthy. Probably not the most accurate cross section - bit like a gathering for the old Tory "Blue rinse" army.

For what it's worth - to those disappointed democrats out there - most of us here are behind you and have been there ourselves for a term that lasted 18 years!!!! Just think of that! I thought it would never end, but eventually it did after destroying my career at my peak age - from which I and countless others like me will never recover fully.
I think there will be an awakening in the USA (all too late) and within 18 months, people will take to the streets bigtime.

[This message was edited by Rasher on Thu 04 November 2004 at 8:26.]

[This message was edited by Rasher on Thu 04 November 2004 at 8:27.]

My prediction for the 4 forthcoming years.

-America is going to drop a tactical nuclear weapon on Iraq.Because it's too expensive to pay 134.000 soldiers in occupying Iraq.
-China, Russia and the EU will not support the US anymore in their "We know what's good for you" politics wich will result in isolation for the US.
-As a result of point two the chance of a civil war is not unlikely.
-Mick Parry will be elected as he is far more intelligent than Bush Jr.

Rob.

US citizens are one of the lowest holders of passports (a few percent I think) so surveying them outside the US will only find middle class veiws. Going to the US and going outside the tourist areas you will see the massive have/have not rift very easily.

Anagram time again
Four More Years = Arm Your Foes

Howard

In US election terms that is a pretty convincing victory, on the back of a higher turnout too. I think it is the first time a President has had a majority of the vote since 1988 or something. Big swings in support of the order of magnitude we occasionally get in the UK do not seem to be the rule in the US.

If I was american at least I would feel my vote was important. Here I have never voted for a candidate with the remotest chance of winning in any of the consituencies I have lived in.

Bruce

Consider the following statement:

"THE world is a safer place today with George W Bush back in the Oval Office.

His re-election is bad news for terrorists everywhere.

They know President Bush means it when he vows to root out terrorism wherever it exists.

John Kerry was weak on terrorism and weak on Iraq.

His one moment of strength came when he conceded defeat with dignity instead of demanding recounts.

America voted decisively for Bush.

On a huge turnout of 120million, the President won by the biggest popular vote in American history.

The verdict is another great vote of support for the leaders fighting the War On Terror — and for the troops on the ground in Iraq.

Last month Australians re-elected John Howard as Prime Minister.

Next year, Tony Blair will go to the polls with renewed confidence.

Bush now has the chance to make his Presidency one of the greats.

His Republican Party controls Washington, and he knows he has America solidly behind him as he confronts the murderous enemies of democracy.

A strong leader in the Oval Office strengthens the rest of the free world too."

Is this:

a) A recent post by Mick Parry

b) Today's editorial from The Sun

Matthew

To hazard a guess, I'd say it was today's editorial from The Sun.

If only because it's longer and more articulate than anything that Mick posts

jon

Does it come from Mr Bush himself?



Regards


NB

Nah, it's waaay too articulate for Bush

jon

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......he has America solidly behind him as he confronts the murderous enemies of democracy.

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Meanwhile the Daily Mail, if one ignores Anne Leslie's froth-at-the-mouth gloat piece, had a rare outbreak of calm good sense in its leader today.

Can Bush learn from his mistakes?

10:38am 4th November 2004 Whatever you think of George W. Bush, this is an extraordinary moment for the world's most vibrant democracy.

A dramatically increased turnout, the fierce commitment of voters who queued for hours, a passionate clash of beliefs and principles, a night of changing fortunes and a nail-biting finish... America's blood and thunder electioneering makes British politics seem pallid by comparison.

Of course there are embarrassments too. The dire voting procedures that made queues necessary in the first place would disgrace a banana republic. And who can feel comfortable when both parties have to hire thousands of lawyers to check for electoral chicanery?

Nevertheless, George Bush is no longer the 'minority President' who owes his office only to the murky machinations of Florida politics.

He has secured the most votes ever won in a US election. His Republican party has tightened its grip on both Houses of Congress. He can now set the agenda at home and abroad without domestic constraints for the next four years.

Indeed, he is likely to influence the social climate in America for decades, because vacancies are expected on the Supreme Court. His replacement nominees will almost certainly share his deeply conservative instincts against such issues as gay marriage, abortion and affirmative action. And they will still be handing down rulings long after he has left office.

So this isn't just a victory for Bush. This is a victory for the values that are so often ignored or derided by political establishments in Britain and Europe and are never (to our detriment) debated with the moral seriousness seen in America.

But now comes the real test. Though apparently master of all he surveys, this President faces awesome challenges. And while we sincerely wish him well, it has to be said that his record so far doesn't inspire great confidence.

He didn't win, after all, because he is universally admired. Millions loathe him with a passion. He was simply lucky to have the lacklustre, flip-flopping John Kerry as a rival, a man who never resonated with Middle America as a leader who could be trusted. The fact is, the US under Bush is more deeply divided than at any time in living memory.

Abroad, the story is even bleaker. With the exception of Britain, Europe is bitterly hostile to America. A nation that commanded such sympathy and support after 9/11 is now loathed in much of the world, largely because of Mr Bush's gross mishandling of the war on terror.

Afghanistan today is mostly in the hands of warlords and is the world's main producer of heroin. Iraq is in chaos with 100,000 civilians dead. Meanwhile, Washington has hardly lifted a finger to address the Israel-Palestinian crisis, which provokes such seething hatreds.

And where will this born-again Christian - a true believer - turn next, now he has a popular mandate? Given his doctrine of pre-emptive war and record of unilateral action, might he attack Iran, with its nuclear ambitions? Or take military action against other rogue states?

This paper sincerely prays not. Our hope is that as a second-term President, he will consider his place in history and learn from his mistakes. Who knows? He might prove more impressive than critics imagine.

He will need to be. On the domestic front storm clouds are gathering over the American economy. Abroad, the Middle East is more volatile than ever.

If there is to be a new beginning, this administration will need all the qualities that represent our most important ally at its best: magnanimity, wisdom, judgment and a willingness to listen. They have been sadly absent these last few years. America - and the world - badly need them now.

Matthew,

Probably your best post ever.

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judgment and a willingness to listen.

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To a guy this side of the Pond telling a pack of lies about WMDs in Iraq perhaps???

Regards,

Steve.