Global Warming, Is human activity the cause?

Well I'm glad I live on the Western edge of Peterborough, I always fancied living by the sea.

"Speech lies conveniently between thought & action - and often substitutes for both."

"When it comes to global warming people step from disbelief to despair without stopping to consider what could actually be done."


I find it strangely predictable that at a time when the South of Europe was highly stressed by unusually hot weather, and therefore massive crop failure; that at the same time Northern Europe had crop failure due to too much rain; that Australia is in the grip of a seven year drought; that we are seeing diseases migrating to areas where they were previously unknown; and where we can see wildlife being stressed by climatic change that our global leaders are unable to form ANY agreed concerted action plan, and that significant numbers of people see this all as a plot to drive up taxes!

A friend of mine in the Antarctic Survey tells me that we are facing UNPRECEDENTED amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere - based on a record going back 650k years, and that the CO2 increases directly map to increasing industrialisation.

Even if global warming is NOT man made can we afford to just sit on our hands in the hope that it might be caused by something else?

Bottom line for me is that we walk on very thin ice. We rely on our ability to grow food. What I believe we are facing is the end of civilisation - as we loose the ability to efficiently grow crops. On the basis of mainstream scientific opinion I believe we should take major action now - rather than wait.

It really reminds me of the procrastination around the evidence w.r.t. cancer & cigarettes.

M

quote:

record going back 650k years

I'm genuinely intrigued. Who was measuring CO2 600 years ago?

Unusual weather patterns? We have no way of knowing that. We have occupied the planet for a gnat's nanosecond in terms of it's estimated age.

"It really reminds me of the procrastination around the evidence w.r.t. cancer & cigarettes."

Specious comparisons don't help the debate. The evidence for climate change being directly caused by man's (rather small) CO2 contribution is nowhere near as solid - hence this type of debate.

That is not to suggest that avoidable overconsumption or waste is desirable. It's more to do with how much direct cause and effect can be established beyond doubt. That debate is dividing many cleverer people than us.


Steve

quote:

On the basis of mainstream scientific opinion I believe we should take major action now - rather than wait.

What action?

People are promoting biofuels, which both have a worse carbon footprint and imply land use changes which are a major but unsung driver of climate change. I think I prefer petrol.

The concentration on CO2 and 'Global Warming' is short sighted, especially as the earth has cooled over the last 8 years, but the climate seems ever more energetic. And we keep putting concrete down...

Paul

I saw a programme on TV related to this and it stated that the biggest single factor was the methane produced by cattle farting. It also went on to say scientists were examining cultures of the bacteria found in the gut of kangaroos as kangaroos are unable to fart.
If they can isolate the bacteria that stops a kangaroo farting and introduce it into cattle then the world will be saved.....
regards,
Steve O.

Steve O when did you get first wind of this?

Beano

Just one of those things they pump out on late night TV!
Groan!

Ho Ho Ho,

and dont forget that whatever anyone thinks given the current religous fervour with which Global Warming is treated; higher taxes are the result.

It is not in any Government's interest to disagree with GW as they see a nice little earner.

Sadly each of our bankrupt major parties think that Taxation and the addition of extra minders to make sure we all do as we are told is the answer to everything.

Currently democracy is over as the clear blue water is now an incestuous stew and we have the democracy we deserve. Sadly all MP's want to do is to ensure that they raise enough money to squander on nothing and a little like those who believe in the after life just on the off chance that you might get to meet someone after you have switched off, they want to cover their backsides.

At 50 Im sick of being lied to and told what to believe and Im fed up of hearing that we need to change - any business man will tell you change costs money, and governments cannot prove that the changes they bring in have saved anything or benefitted us at all. I'll vote for the next party that says "actually we aren't going to change anything for while, stick our noses in where its not wanted or invent ludicrous scare stories to make you pay more tax."

Thanks I feel better, back to the 4 wheel drive and the HiFi I leave on all the time to keep my playroom warm.

Henners

Both of the scientists/engineers I know who have actually done the calculations on atmospheric C02 say that, from a thermodynamic point of view, the extra C02 cannot cause significant global warming.

I was going to write more but I'm suffering from brain fade. I might come back another day and finish this.

Whatever happens and whatever the actual cause, it is going to happen, and it may even be very ugly - terrifying even.

If it is largely man made, then there will be no change, even if the governments in the mature Western economies attempt to make their populations alter consumption paterns quite simply because at present the Chinese are producing less than a tenth of the emission per head compared to the major Western poulations! A quick examination of the sizes of the respective populations will soon show that what we do in the West is going to be completely outweighed by even a small increase in consumption and emissions from the Chinese alone. And they will increase their paterns of consumption as they increase their economic and industrial activity, and they will rightly say they have the perfect right to do this. The same goes for the Indians and Brazilians.

In my view this is not a justification for complete inactions on an idividual and even country wide basis in the West, but it is more a question of preparing ourselves for the real energy crisis that looms as the Chinese in particular compete ever more effectively for remaining fossil fuel reserves.

Oil hit $90 per barrel last week for the first time, and it would only take a further bout of instability in the Middle-east for this to tip even higher.

Like a whole load of "doomsday scenarios" this one seems to be unavoidable, and it either will be or will not be catastrophic. No accurate prediction can be made. Will a new and effective energy source [in my view Nuclear Fusion is the only one I have heard of that might fulfill the requirements in the longer term if it can be tamed] be found in time to avoid the looming energy crisis? Who can tell what might happen, next year, in the next decade, the next century, or even millenium... A betting man could aquire a fortune with this certain knowledge, but only good guessers will do well from the situation...

Probably it is best to get on with daily life, and without raising the blood pressure, simply keeping a weather eye on it all, dispassionately.

Not conclusive but being conclusive is not possible on this, from George

During the last (and previous) ice age my current location was under about 1000m of ice. What I want to know is how much CO2/CH4/H2O do we have to pump into the atmosphere to stop that happening again? I've got my emissions up to 27tonnes. Are you doing your bit?

Regards,

Willy.

in 20 years time if the temperature starts to fall the headlines will read "Burn anything".


It will make as much sense as "dont burn anything" that we get now.

But at least we may get the tax back - Ha Ha

Off for more coffee

Henners

quote:

Originally posted by GFFJ:

Probably it is best to get on with daily life, and without raising the blood pressure, simply keeping a weather eye on it all, dispassionately.

Not conclusive but being conclusive is not possible on this, from George

Maybe George?

I suppose the questions are; What can be done? And... Is it too late anyway?

Anyway, here's one to help keep your blood pressure down in the mean time - I hope!

I took this while out on my early morning constitutional earlier, walking round part of Pitsford Water just before sun-up. As you may have heard reported in the media, we are having some spectacular sunrises and sunsets at the moment here in the UK, due to the large amount of particulates in the atmosphere:

Not that this is any consolation to many residents in the areas of California currently under a state of emergency due to continuing large scale fires there!

Kind regards,

Peter

So much global warming the skies on fire.
Great picture though.

Article by David Bellamy in todays Times. He's firmly in the sceptic camp. Research by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction "shows that since 1998 the average temperature of the planet has not risen". This despite our ever incerasing CO2 output.
No doubt the article is also on-line for those of you not prepared to do teh decent thing and drive to the newsagents.

Regards,

Willy.