The death of Hi-Fi - full page article in todays FT

FYI - They've published the story online here
J

Ha!

I think it was nearly 20 years ago that similar predictions were being made about the demise of turntables and vinyl. Nevermind. it will not be stopping me on my quest to accurately recreate the sound of an orchestra playing in my front room!

Onward and upward!

David

lovely jubbly! If it means even more s/h vinyl available at 2 quid a pop I can't wait.

Bob

2 superb quotes from that article:

"Once upon a time people would sit down and listen to music. Now audio is used primarily to support video."

"Today, 50 per cent of Marantz's sales are in video-related equipment"

And where does it leave us or Naim? Read on...

1) I don't believe that audio is used primarily to support video. I would be more convinced that the developments in video have EXPANDED the requirement for better audio to support it, not that video+audio is substituting audio only. If it is, then what a shame less people are enjoying the joys of just music (or are the stats just saying less people are buying new audio-only kit???!!!)
2) Any manufacturer (Linn, Naim, etc.) included is likely to move to capitalise on developments in video technology.
3) "Pioneer, the Japanese consumer electronics group, has neither a single-disc CD player nor a purely stereo amplifier in its current US product line-up", which leaves people like us quite happy thank you with Naim et al supporting our fetishes.

And of these various hard-disk servers and PC-based media centres, etc., have they come as far as well-produced 16-bit CD? Perhaps so. If they have, then I would jump ship along with the rest of the "mass market". But you can keep your plasma screens, 'cos the software is just not as much fun as my CD collection...

!!! There's always money somewhere for the next upgrade... !!!

You're all making one BIG assumption - that journos know what they're talking about!
For one thing, they quote Bill Cody of "Best Buy" - look at their website...they sell PCs, cameras, whitegoods...it appears to be the US equivalent of Dixons/Comet etc. And they know the specialist audio market? Yeah right!
Oh yeah, and if it means the price of a CDS3, NAC552/NAP500 in a couple of years is next to nothing...HOORAY!

-- woody

OK so FT knows what it is talking about right??

I succumb regularly to reading the HiFi mags. They may have revamped their presentation but they are still reviewing and advertising genuine HiFi components. I don't see them frantically repositioning there content to appeal to the profile portrayed as "today" by FT.
This is true for both sides of the "pond", HiFi News & Choice, Stereophile and Absolute Sounds., Plus several French & German mags.
Surely the new HiFi component product releases would not be coming as thick and fast as they do unless there was a market to support the R&D that goes into them.

geoffp

People in the industry tell me that the pure Hi-Fi market is indeed shrinking.

However; there will always be a demand for quality and this may force some high street shops who are 'playing at it' to give up and allow specialists to pick up MORE business.

My local Naim dealer operates from an ex-Victorian village school in the middle of nowhere and does very good business.

As a youth I became interested in Hi-Fi and tape recorders to get the music I wanted as cheaply as possible in good quality.

Although the youth of today seem happy with mp3 downloads and the ilk of the 'Ipod'; I'm generalising. The vast bulk of the population will always accept their music from a low quality format.

Plus ca change?

The death of Hi-Fi - I am not so sure ...

Having said that the nature of the market place has changed dramatically over the past three/four years.

Clearly new product such as DVD (read surround sound), MP3, hard disk systems etc have changed the market place.

The teenage market is clearly pc driven. Looking at the buying habits of my (younger) staff alone sums this up.

All is not lost. One 19 year old convert to the cause of real hi-fi.

In my view the younger and new generations of buyers are entering the market place via MP3 & surround sound. A number will strive for better quality as they get older thereby providing demand for the "high(er) end" manufacturers.

Manufacturers (high(er)) have been adapting by embracing surround sound. There is, however, a shift in the market place. That is clearly demonstrated by the sales mix experienced by dealers over recent years. I do not have figures at hand but tomorrow I will look out the sales mix (equipment, speakers, tv/video, dvd, plasma) for the last three/four years of a dealer. No names will be mentioned though. These will clearly demonstrate the rise of home cinema/plasma.

Draw your own conclusions.

I for one do not believe that we will see the death of Hi-Fi. I do believe that we will see a shake up in the market place and as ever the weaker manufacturers will not survive. The stronger manufacturers will survive by serving their niche market and adapting.

Mike

I think its just a case of saturated hi-fi market with people wanting to spend money on other things for now. There are a lot of people who have already bought decent hi-fi's, instead of upgrading they want plasma tv's, dvds, surround sound etc. Once theyve spent money on that next year it will be the latest games console and the year after something else, and before you know it they've come full circle and it will be time to get the latest in home audio again

"In the US stand alone component sales have fallen from 270,000 to 20,000 in the last 4 years."

This doesn't seem realistic. I bought 3 CD single disk CD players in the last 12 months myself.

There's 50 states so they only sold 400 stand alone units in each state? 200,000 maybe a more reasonable figure.


Mitch

I think the telling issue here is the brand names and retailers mentioned in the piece. The manufacturers are all big Japanese companies, and the retailers are all big box stores. It is no different than the car business, Toyota and Honda sell huge numbers of cars to the mass, BMW, Alfa Romeo, Porsche and others sell to a smaller group of individuals. People still love to drive. Swatch is on every corner of every street, Rolex and Omega more specialized. The real audio business is not near death. The Japanese companies don't make anything in Japan anymore, and are even looking beyond China for the next low-cost production country. Only the bottom end of the business is on its death bed. I for one will not shed a tear at its passing.

quote:

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Toyota and Honda sell huge numbers of cars to the mass, BMW, Alfa Romeo, Porsche and others sell to a smaller group of individuals.

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I consider myself an "individual", and I have one Toyota and one Honda!

Well, let's us not get into the car business.

The amount of cash, in real terms, that "ordinary" people lay out on HiFi has dwindled constantly since the peak in the late 1970:s. And will continue to do so.

Recently "Home Cinema" has picked up and is currently the imagination of most people. It is also used to play music on. In some not to distant future everybody will have one and the interest in it will start to dwindle. And be replaced by something else, God only knows what that might be.

Specialist HiFi will survive. No problem.

JohanR

quote:

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Originally posted by MichaelC:
The death of Hi-Fi - I am not so sure ...

There is, however, a shift in the market place. That is clearly demonstrated by the sales mix experienced by dealers over recent years. I do not have figures at hand but tomorrow I will look out the sales mix (equipment, speakers, tv/video, dvd, plasma) for the last three/four years of a dealer. No names will be mentioned though. These will clearly demonstrate the rise of home cinema/plasma.

Mike

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Sales mix for last four year's figures which were at hand:

For each category percentage of annual sales,

Hifi 03 26% 02 28% 01 36% 00 41%

Speakers 03 23% 02 23% 01 26% 00 24%

TV/video 03 0% 02 4% 01 6% 00 10%

Projector/plasma 03 33% 02 24% 01 8% 00 0%

DVD 03 7% 02 10% 01 12% 00 13%

Accessories 03 7% 02 7% 01 7% 00 9%

Stands 03 4% 02 5% 01 5% 00 3%

NB Apparent decline in DVD is simply down to falling retail prices - actual volume of units sold increases year on year.

There are clear trends to be seen.

Mike

quote:

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"In the US stand alone component sales have fallen from 270,000 to 20,000 in the last 4 years."

This doesn't seem realistic. I bought 3 CD single disk CD players in the last 12 months myself.

There's 50 states so they only sold 400 stand alone units in each state? 200,000 maybe a more reasonable figure.


Mitch

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This statistic is the one that bothered me most. However if it's true, then surely there is going to be a serious manufacturer shake out very soon, particularly those who haven't diversified out of hi fi. Let's hope it's a misprint.

Surely Naim have got figures on the 'Separates' market. Can they provide an insight into what the real situation is?

In the investment world, once it makes the front page, it generally means its time to take the other side of the trade. Perhaps we should keep this article in mind next year when the regular TV is apparently over, or perhaps the death of the desktop PC.

I think in the last 4 years if we have learned anything conclusively it's that extreme predictions are likely to be less than reliable.

tw

People in the western world have more disposable income than ever before, not to mention tons of credit at the lowest interest rates in 50 years or so, but they are BORED! The big Japanese companies cannot hope to stay in business selling minimum quantities of anything, so they create new products and hope everybody will jump over to the latest frenzy. Some consumers will always be "early adopters", some will add the new to the existing old, some will stay with the old. It's like that will all consumer products.

I think Roger Waters said it best;

No tears to cry
No feelings left
This species has amused itself to death.

BC
Welcome.
Looks like you are about to have an great time.
You will need to play the hell out of it to burn that little lot in. If you start now it should be on song by XMAS day.

On the topic I feel the dealers can be their own worst enemies sometimes. A local one here was less than cooperative about demoing speakers for heavens sake. He complained that people came in, listened, then went off and searched the internet for a better deal, which of course sounds tough but I suspect his surly attitude may have been the main reason.
The follow on from this is illustrated by a conversation I had with a friend who was seeking advice about matching speakers for a NAD amp he had picked up. He had been to this very dealer and given up trying to get help in his quest.

GEOFFP

No one has yet to mention the possibility that there just may not be many people who really spend time listening to music anymore. They either don't have the time or their attention spans are too short just to sit in front of two speakers and listen to music.

Majority of users look at music as something to hear in the background. Why would they be interested in separates when then can buy the 300w per channel/6 channel/all-in-one receiver?

Those of us who own Naim do so for a reason, but I wouldn't be surprised if high end audio is in a decline. Economically speaking, there are likely less people willing to invest the money into something if their attention span isn't long enough to sit through a few songs on a cd. Besides, why would they want a dedicated CD player when they think they can buy a $100-200 DVD player that will do everything they want anyhow? Your average Joe does not and will not appreciate the fact that his $200 DVD doesn't really sound as good as he thinks it does.

There will always be audiophiles like those of us hear who will continue to support hifi, but it shouldn't surprise us if our cohort population size dwindles.

quote:

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There are clear trends to be seen.

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At least until every household has a dvd/plasma/yaddayaddayadda in place, at which point the public will likely turn the full power of its buying potential in another direction... maybe towards buying some new toy, or maybe replacing the hi-fi stuff they neglected while they satisfied their home theater jones, and which might be starting to look shabby among all the new twinkly lights and silver faceplates.

I would'nt worry to much as HI FI goes in and out of fashion on a near regular basis. My first real system, note spelling as opposed to a record player was bought from Comet in 73/74 when comet was a Warehouse operation. I remember queuing at the Renfrew store for about an hour to buy Pioneer PL12D/shure cartridge/Amstrad amp and Solavox speakers. I thought it was the Dogs Bollocks compared to my old marconiphone record player. God only knows how many seperates Comet sold in those days. A weekday night and it was chock-a-block.

Then the fashion changed and stores like Comet started to sell white goods etc. Then the Hi Fi bug caught me again in the early eighties just as the HI FI magazine market started to expand, only now it was single speaker demonstrations in specialist HI FI stores that was all the rage.

Now the market has changed again but the specialist HI FI stores are still there and the specialist manufacturers are still going. Some famous makes have struggled over the intervening years and some have disappeared but new and revamped ones have come along to take their place. I don't think HI FI or stereo for that matter will ever really disappear. There will always be those who listen to music most of the time and are willing to pay for the best reproduction in their homes.

Michael C

your sales figures are strange in one respect

Speakers 03 23% 02 23% 01 26% 00 24%

I would have thought that speaker sales would have grown by a large margin if people are moving to Multichannel thus buying 5 speakers and a sub system instead of just a stereo pair but if this is just the volume of sales then surely this means that they are paying the same relative price for speakers as they did before, so paying say £600 for 5 speakers and sub whereas they used to just spend the £600 on a pair. Ultimately when they get tired, as they surely will, of watching yet another poor story with bad acting but all the budget going into the special effects, and start listening to the music again they will find that their systems sre badly in need of an upgrade. Then the Hi Fi market whether multichannel or stereo, will start to take off again.

Sorry about my longwinded 2 cents worth.

Yours in Music

Syd

quote:

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Speakers 03 23% 02 23% 01 26% 00 24%

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Glad you caught that one as well Syd! I read this thread the other night and thought exactly the same. Anyway, I'm posting here with some information that may substantiate the claim that traditional two channel is dying. I spoke to Hifi+ the other day about an unrelated matter and happened to end up talking with Roy Gregory. While I had him on the phone, I asked

quote:

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When are you going to start reviewing multichannel home cinema and music more?

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I was interested as I have been playing around with high end AV equipment to slot into my Naim system. The response I got was that being downstream from the Dolby Digital processor isn't hifi. He has a point in that the truly high end CD and vinyl replay options far exceed anything that I have heard play DVD but...I have heard some pretty decent stuff.
Anyway, I continued with my exploration unaided by independent press advice (unless you count What Hifi) and am pretty pleased with what I have. See separate thread "Naim and AV". My Nov/Dec copy of Hifi+ came through the post today and guess what? There is an abundance of multichannel reviews in this one! Personally I think we are going to see more high-end hybrid 2-channel-multichannel players and I would not be surprised to see Naim have a go at a DVD/DVD-A/CD player for their 500 series. I have heard some surround systems (e.g. M&K) where the overall home cinema experience of watching a movie is far superior to anything I have heard from the traditional 2-channel manufacturers. The traditional 2-channel manufacturers have produced equipment which is far more effective at making music, however, and it is in this respect that I am remaining loyal to my Naim. So is 2-channel going to disappear? Well not really. I believe that we will see the capability integrated into highend multichannel and the likes of Naim will find a way of isolating unused processors during any particular software playback. And as for the next great wave? Watch out for DVD using blue lasers. This enables the software manufacturers to put more information onto the disc leading to better sound and picture resolution. That's my voting on this one.

quote:

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Originally posted by syd:
Michael C

your sales figures are strange in one respect

_Speakers 03 23% 02 23% 01 26% 00 24%_

I would have thought that speaker sales would have grown by a large margin if people are moving to Multichannel thus buying 5 speakers and a sub system instead of just a stereo pair but if this is just the volume of sales then surely this means that they are paying the same relative price for speakers as they did before, so paying say £600 for 5 speakers and sub whereas they used to just spend the £600 on a pair. Syd

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Syd

You are quite correct.

Mike

Hi,
As a frequenter of flea-markets I see endless 78rpm record collections. I bet they had their "die-hard" enthusiasts too. As probably did mono LPs when stereo arrived.
I am old enough to vaguely remember the 4 channel fiasco. I doubt whether this whole stereo versus surround debate would even be taking place today. If that had not been fouled up by the Japanese "big boys" over standards. In a multichannel, multi-amp world Naim would have found its adherence to din sockets very short lived. Before being swiftly & quietly dropped to match what everybody else was doing. I don't see many steam trains on the rails these days. Except for the odd enthusiasts 'special'. Oh, and those quaint narrow guage railways of course.

At a recent HiFi show even the "high end" stereo systems were standing shoulder to shoulder in the corridors. Competing loudly on different programme material with very few pausing to listen. While the big audio-visual halls were packed to the brim!
Where I found myself grinning broadly at a big Plasma screen showing of what I guessed to be "The Matrix" car chase. With the most incredible sound and visual experience being offered clearly and very enjoyably above the surrounding din! Though I doubt one could be said to be very relaxed while watching and listening to such an amazing experience. It is the only thing I can still remember clearly about the whole "High End HiFi" show. The rest was just boxes.

Nime

Everyone has the right to be wrong.

Originally posted by Steve Carter:
Another angle on this thread.

"With systems including subwoofer being available from as little as £99 we may in the UK see people getting seriously cheesed off with their neighbours. Even these flimsy little subwoofers can produce enough sound presure to make it through to next door in most non-detached UK houses. These systems do, I believe, outperform most of the micro or mini systems at this price level in terms of sheer sound clout, ie "bass" that will make it through walls.

Consider this - the sales of these systems may have an effect on the desirability of detached houses."

I presume you meant an upward price increase? I live(detached) about a hundred yards/metres from the nearest road. I can hear some carfi subwoofers from about 3/4 mile away with all our windows closed! Fortunately they pass quickly and are soon forgotten. But imagine living within earshot of a serious home surround sound enthusiast? The random crashes from his subwoofers (during action films) would be ample reason for some serious "diplomacy"!

Nime

Everyone has the right to be wrong.