Why the Tories have lost the Election.

Posted by: Tarquin Maynard - Portly on 29 March 2010

1. "Look at him, he's RUBBISH" is not good enough a critique. "Trust us, we'll be OK" is not exactly a powerful or convincing message.

2. Not raising NICs sounds good, until you recall that they do not have any coherant strategy to raise the monies elsewhere. "Further efficiency savings"? That means not giving the lowest paid 2/3rds of Civil Servants a payrise - which not only penalises the (already low paid) lower grades, it by implication feathers the nest of the higher earners.

3. "We'll re-negotiate cotracts": and get sued for Breach of Contract if the result reduces the profit margins of the counterparty.

4. Increase Inheritance Tax thresholds so that c.1000 can benefit is just looking after the old boy network. Most people here, I strongly suspect, have their house as their Nil Rate Band (£325k. )

5. Cameron sounds like an overexcited school boy, and is rapidly losing credibility. His constant habit of calling for the most obvious solution to any problem and either calling Labour "copycats" or "indecisive" is beneath even the 4t Form Debating Society, let alone a man who wants to lead the UK.

6. Nobody seriously believed that Cameron welcomed the recent announcement of the domicility of his most important donor. He did it to avoid the embarrasment of an FoI disclosure. Lord Paul has been an acknowledged non Dom for many years. Its always been known.

7. The state of the economy, and the Government debt, has been caused by greedy banks, not Gordon Brown. The supposed alternative implicit in the Tory polemic is that they'd have let the UK banking system collapse. This would have been economic disaster on a cliched but unprecedented scale.

The Tories are not good enough.
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by OscillateWildly
quote:
Originally posted by living in lancs yearning for yorks:
I won't believe Brown is going until I see him actually gone. He has more or less said he plans to have left by September. Will there be a "crisis" before then requiring him to stay on "in the national interest"?


There's a lot of 'national interest' about.



Disappointed Cameron didn't tell the Liberal Democrats to FO to Labour re PR, and then wait the short period to the next election.

Saw the Boulton thing, thought he was going to have a heart attack.

JamieWednesday - which version of PR? The Green Party (red by any other name) should hand that seat to the BNP.


Cheers,
OW
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by JamieWednesday
Cameron responds to Mandy's plot of doom...

Posted on: 10 May 2010 by JamieWednesday
quote:
The Green Party (red by any other name) should hand that seat to the BNP.


I genuinely will find it interesting to have an elected Green MP, to see what they can do with it and whether they show to be of some real use, or if they're astonishingly crap. And if anywhere's going to have the first UK Green MP it might as well be Brighton.
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by MilesSmiles
quote:
Originally posted by JamieWednesday:
Cameron responds to Mandy's plot of doom...



Wrong finger. Winker
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by OscillateWildly
JamieWednesday - good luck with the 'experiment'.

Sticking with Green; just realised who Lord Adonis reminds me of - the character Dr. Martin Dear from 'Green Wing'.

Cheers,
OW
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by Tarquin Maynard - Portly
There is a Constitutional imperative for the UK to have a Prime Minister. Broon is in the job and will stay as such until a new Government can be formed.

I admire the silence of NuLab in that they've been waiting for Clegg et all to realise tht the Tories will NOT give them PR, so will never form an alliance with them.

It'll be Lab / Libs, with Browns' head the price to pay.

Oh, and PR / STV.
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by Lontano
quote:
Originally posted by Mike Lacey:

It'll be Lab / Libs, with Browns' head the price to pay.

Oh, and PR / STV.


I am beginning to think this might be the right way forward. It won't last long. Then come the imminent election......
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by MilesSmiles
quote:
Originally posted by Lontano:
quote:
Originally posted by Mike Lacey:

It'll be Lab / Libs, with Browns' head the price to pay.

Oh, and PR / STV.


I am beginning to think this might be the right way forward. It won't last long. Then come the imminent election......


That's why I don't believe Lab/Lib will happen, the Libs would get slaughtered at the next election.

... and how would that work, the PM that never got elected and led his party to one of the worst results in history would stay in power for a few more months to be replaced by another PM that never got elected?
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by OscillateWildly
Waiting for the dealing to get to the level of the 'Not The Nine O'Clock News' 'Union Bosses' sketch; William Hague informing the press that the Conservatives have offered Samantha Cameron's dessert recipe.

Let's just go again.

Night,
OW
Posted on: 10 May 2010 by Mike-B
quote:
It'll be Lab / Libs

That has all the future, city confidence, investor backing, of a snowball in hell
The loss of confidence will even have the more well endowed labour supporters running for a tax haven
PLUS the majority numbers don't stack, so the Tory alliance will just vote out the Queen speech, derrr ?? wha'da we do now ???

Another election in days, weeks or maybe months, that's the only question ??
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Tarquin Maynard - Portly
The numbers do stack.

The SNP where shafted by the Tories in ?'79, and will never work with them. Sinn Fein do not take their seats, the Green will never be blue and suddenly...

The Libs don't care about the City, they care about power. Their best chance remains with Labour who have already said they'd go to Referendum on PR / STP. Given this, they'll actually look forward to the next election. The Tories will "launch an enquiry" or in other words, kick it into the long grass.

"So, Mr. Clegg - we'll take something from *our* name - "Conservative" - and something from *your* name - "Party".
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Howlinhounddog
Lets be honest here, every one of the main three are willing to lift their skirts to anyone willing to give them a sniff of power. The only acceptable solution is a minority Tory government. If that does'nt excite the city then tough the city must learn that they really don't run this or any country !
If any government of mixed bedfellows takes place (without PR) then each leader has proven themselves no better than they accused Brown of being, an unelected Prime Minister.
Clegg must hold out for whoever gives PR without constraints as a pre requisite and first on the agenda after the Queens speech. Get it through Parliament and go to the country, thereby ensuring a legitimated proportionally representative government.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Mike-B
Mike, the Lib/Lab numbers don't stack

Take out the seat numbers that will not play a part
Sinn Fein will not take their seats.
The Speaker and 3 deputy speakers do not vote unless the house is in a tied vote.

This leaves 641 voting MPs. So 321 is a majority.

Tory have 305 plus will win Thirsk & Malton on 27-May making 306.
A majority will therefore need 15 more from other parties – without reaching agreement with Clegg.

Possible - I do say possible - DUP 8 & SNP-Plaid 9
Still open but most unlikely are 3 individual ladies, Green (but never blue) Uster's Alliance & Independent.

Labour with 258 require others even if they struck a deal with the Libs 57.
This 315 could probably get support from NI, Alliance 1 & SDLP 3
This is 319, still a few seats short.

Green working with lib or even lab, hmm interesting
DUP are not a natural labour support, but might be up for regional deals
SNP-Plaid will be more of a a hot potato than DUP & are probably best avoided as they are liable to act up if they don't get extra funds & regional favours.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by tonym
Interesting to hear how everyone wants a stable solution, but when confronted with the prospect of a Lib/Lab coalition, the Tories say it wouldn't have a majority to be stable, yet that would only be true if the Tories voted down whatever the coalition proposed!

So if it isn't stable it is entirely because of how they might vote. It's in their hands to keep a stable government at the end of the day - if the overriding priority is stablility and we end up with Lib/Lab coalition, then the Tories need to let them get on with it however painful it might be for them.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by SC
Good point Tony, though far too logical for politics..!

Whilst my natural instincts would be more towards a LabLib deal, I can just foresee mayhem lies ahead if that route is taken.....If the Tories are dumped at the side of the road after all this, they are going to be one pissed party with an axe to grind....A major thorn in the side against a very shaky rainbow coalition, me thinks.....
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by rich46
the torys had 12 years to get things right, no baggage ,plenty of time to work it out and we didnt believe it
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by gone
Lib/Lab deal, new Lab leader elected, immediate general election announced, sorted bish bash bosh
Oh, and somewhere in the middle, Cameron gets knifed by his own party
Let's get on with it
Is it possible for the UK to file for an Individual Voluntary Arrangement while this is going on?
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Tarquin Maynard - Portly
quote:
Originally posted by Mike-B:
Mike, the Lib/Lab numbers don't stack



OK; pedantically the non-Tory numbers can stack up.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Steve O
quote:
Originally posted by rich46:
the torys had 12 years to get things right, no baggage ,plenty of time to work it out and we didnt believe it


Yet we believed in Labour.
Oh, no we didn't did we. They LOST the election. Any attempt by Labour to retain power is against democratic principles IMO, regardless of its legality within our constitution.
Besides, with Gordon Brown announcing his resignation we could once again end up with an "unelected" Prime Minister.
Whether we end up with Lib-Lab or Lib-Con we get a government we didn't vote for. A 2nd General Election should be called.
Regards,
Steve.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Tarquin Maynard - Portly
quote:
Originally posted by Steve O:
we could once again end up with an "unelected" Prime Minister.
Regards,
Steve.


Like Thatcher, Churchill, Major...
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Bruce Woodhouse
I've just cracked it!

We need a new PM who has had repeated electoral success, enjoyed enormous popularity, is suffused with messianic zeal and will be internationally respected. They'll need to be experienced, and slippery enough to survive the turbulent political waters ahead.

Is Tony Blair busy?



Bruce
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by MilesSmiles
... seems it's all over now. Someone is packing his bags.
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by David Scott
quote:
Like Thatcher, Churchill, Major...
Why Thatcher?
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by OscillateWildly
Who knew it would take the Liberal Democrats this long to make a decision?

The problem for Clegg is he has been seen to be part of the 'old politics'.

Cheers,
OW
Posted on: 11 May 2010 by Steve O
quote:

quote:
Like Thatcher, Churchill, Major...
Why Thatcher?


It mustn't count if you didn't vote for them. Big Grin

But on a more serious note, I doubt history will see Mr. Brown in as good a light as Mr. Churchill.....

Regards,
Steve.