A very convenient Truth ?

Dear Don,

No reason to apologise, but to answer your points ...

There is no rational point in choosing a date in human history to revert to because we cannot gather the evidence to show what would be a rational point.

What we need to do is calculate what is the sustainable level of human population based on a non-oil fired economy, and rapidly implement plans to get there, at least with the possibility of slowing down the birth rate to a level where the drop in population is managed by natural causes. Clearly this is not going to happen.

How will an equilibrium be maintained? It cannot be. Growth followed by destruction is the natural course.

Of course questions about speakers will be regarded as apparently more important than elemental questions. It is easier to find an answer ...

ATb from George

Judging by the last two British summers, i have seen no evidence of global warming
HOWEVER:
Last December i remember seeing a Bumble bee and a Red Admiral butterfly flying around our building site, appearing to be flying around all confused. This was enough evidence for me to accept that the climate is changing fast!

Global warming is not the point.

We have absolutely no evidence that is unquestionable on it.

But we do know that there is no substitute for oil in making the artificial fertiliser that maintains our current agricultural production capacity, and ability to feed the present human population.

When oil gets scarce enought to make it so expensive that we can no longer feed the poorest in the world, they will starve ...

The move to a sustainable popolation must be initiated at the first opprtunity ...

ATB from George

I would make a massive investment in nuclear power stations to dramatically reduce the need for coal or oil.

Invest in research into new forms of power generation eg salt-water/fresh-water osmosis.

We might need far more power to desalinate water in order to grow crops.

Invest in research into more intensive farming with 10-fold yields and non-oil-based artificial fertilisers. We also need to figure out how to manage without deisel driven tractors..........and lorries and 'planes....(trains can run on nuclear derived electricity)

I just don't see Gordon Brown, or Cameron for that matter, being the essential inspiration for Britain's contribution. Any suggestions???

Cheers

Don

.........and we can store the nuclear waste in surface containers - no probs.

.........and i'll let Jim deal with the population issue - no probs.

Stephen,

I think the balance of evidence is for global warming. There are always minor cycles superimposed on the big picture. Not certain, but on balance....warming.

What I am not convinced about, is either the (primary) cause, or whether mankind can effectively prevent it from getting out of hand.

Sustainable use of resources is a related, but IMHO more urgent issue.

Cheers

Don

I thought that during the industrial revolution over population/sustainability was at it's worse. We couldn't deal with the population boom, people in this country really did starve in those days. I see nothing new.

Regards, Steve

And there is no starvation today?

Not in this country, where it was once rife.

I suspect future starvation problems caused by increasingly expensive food as oil based fertilisers become much more expensive and eventually scarce, will not become apparent in the Uk as the first place on Earth.

May I suggest that parts of Africa may be the first to suffer?

ATB from George

quote:

Originally posted by GFFJ:May I suggest that parts of Africa may be the first to suffer?

I thought that the very first mankind broke away from Africa for this very reason.

Regards, steve

Steve,

The big picture is there to see, just visit SE Asia or Africa. Sod it, even Montana can look a bit bleak once you are a mile or two off a main highway.

The street where I live, is very affluent. Starvation simply means that lunch is five minutes late. Looks like you live in similar circumstances.

I've been told by others that Britain's food supplychain is rather frail. We import 60% of it and other nations don't really want our £££ anymore.

Cameron will have a headache this time next year.

Cheers

Don

quote:

I thought that the very first mankind broke away from Africa for this very reason.

I don't think its at all clear why a few people left Africa.

Presumably you are suggesting that mankind's ingenuity will come to the rescue yet again?

That's my belief/hope anyway.

Cheers

Don

quote:

Presumably you are suggesting that mankind's ingenuity will come to the rescue yet again?

That's my belief/hope anyway.

Yes i am Don and mine.

If we were serious about doing something about it then why havan't we all got solarpowered houses? instead of charging 4x4s in london with extra tax hikes as is well as everything else that's going to jump on the band wagon.

I want to see serious evidence with solutions NOW for me to take all this global stuff seriously.
I'm sorry for those who don't agree but i think alot of it is marketing tosh, abit like the Calgon or Cilletbang adverts
I'm a member of Greenpeace who are striving for real honest solutions and who do appear to be trying to do something about it!
Cheers, steve

quote:

If we were serious about doing something about it then why havan't we all got solarpowered houses?

The solutions have to be commercially viable. People have to want the solutions.

Cheers

Don

There is an age thing at work here.

I am 48 later this year.

If I live my biblical span, then I have just over 22 years to go.

I believe that living in relatively rich Europe, starvation is unlikely to be the cause of my death.

Therefore I am prepared to make some sacrifices for the future, but also live out my remaining days in ways that are undoubtedly unsustainable in other areas.

I am no longer a regular user of a car, and will scrap a viable [20 year old] motor car in October rather than run it on.

I have so far, and shall continue to refrain from adding to the already overheating rise in population by not adding my own offspring to the problem.

But I will have holidays that, so long as I can afford to do so, may involve long distance travel quite possibly using aero-planes.
I do believe that I am part of the last generation who will have the chance to travel so easily.

I believe that I am quite possibly part of the last generation who may reasonably assume that early death may not be induced by starvation. If I lived in Africa, that assumption would even today be wrong - IMV.

ATB from George

I'm on about governments really, so perhaps my voice is on the wrong thread.
Which is probably why i sound contradictive.

It's hard to take it seriously with them plebs running the show telling us what we should/forced be doing, especially when there is an earner for them in it.

Cameron is the only politician who makes any sense to me. Everyone i know can't stand him
When i used to hear Blair go on or gordon Brown go on, to me they might as well speak in another langauge because to this day i have never understood what they are about. Yet they have been in power all this time
Am i missing something?

Regards, steve

Change must come up from the grass roots.

Imposed from the top and with out convincing the grass roots, no change can be forced from the top [governmental level] down to work.

I have absolutely no faith in either some man invented freely available replacement for oil to make fertilisers for industrial food production, or actually for planning of resource conservation or the implicit, and necessary control of human population.

For this reason I see no reason to cut off my nose to spite my face in terms of enjoying the rest of my life - yes I do intend to fly to holiday destinations from time to time, as certainly restrant on my part would not change the outcome in exhausting the oil stocks, but I will not bring offsprong to a world I believe is going to face unimagined and probably inconceivable horrors and hardships during my [potential] offsprings' lifetime.

You may note a certain pessimism in me about the ability of human-kind to get this right.

I believe that humans will survive for many generations, but that the population will be massively curtailed with one or two generations and unspeakable horrors will occur during the hardships that will result in, and be caused in part by this very reduction.

I know others hold a more optimistic view, but never have I seen any reasonable concrete evidence to back up this optimism.

I believe that this optimism amounts to a simople denial complex, because the realistic view is so horribly bleak.

ATB from George

quote:

Originally posted by Stephen Tate:

quote:

Presumably you are suggesting that mankind's ingenuity will come to the rescue yet again?

That's my belief/hope anyway.

Yes i am Don and mine.

If we were serious about doing something about it then why havan't we all got solarpowered houses? instead of charging 4x4s in london with extra tax hikes as is well as everything else that's going to jump on the band wagon.

I want to see serious evidence with solutions NOW for me to take all this global stuff seriously.
I'm sorry for those who don't agree but i think alot of it is marketing tosh, abit like the Calgon or Cilletbang adverts
I'm a member of Greenpeace who are striving for real honest solutions and who do appear to be trying to do something about it!
Cheers, steve

You got the first part of the question right. "If we were serious". We're not. Sustainability could only possibly come at the expense of our selfish lifestyles and innate instinct to procreate. Consumerism, reproduction and general greed. Individually, we can't put the needs of the future planet ahead of our own desire to be successful and happy. I fear it will end in tears. Actually it will be a lot worse that tears. Water, food and resource wars on a scale unprecedented. Billions suffering from violence and starvation. A human tragedy of unimaginable magnitude. I have no idea how we could possibly avoid it. Too many people on planet too small.

The planet will survive ... uninhabited or not, the planet will survive.

ATB from George

quote:

Originally posted by winkyincanada:
Too many people on planet too small.

So, wouldn't you agree that this has always been the case?

Regards, steve

That is unanswerable unless you define what is too many humans ...

Hi George,

Yes it is unanswerable. What i meant was that we have always had great wars, famines, pandemic viruses, population culls, starvation ect...

Obviously populations are higher now than ever but it all still stands the same doesn't it?

Yes things could get worse in the near future because things appear to be on a much grander scale now, but i can't see it being any worse now than it was then regarding people being faced with major world catastrophes. Still, I do take everyones point that hardships will be pushed to the brink in the not to distant future.
I have four offspring and i do worry about their future concerning this but i also remember my parents worrying about same things with my sister and i. I remember my father mumbling thirty years ago saying the same things "I feel sorry for the young ones they are the ones who are gonna cop it" maybe he is right but i suspect my fathers parents thought the same about them and so on.

Live life to the full, enjoy it while you can, as are my offspring today

Ragards, steve

quote:

Obviously populations are higher now than ever but it all still stands the same doen't it?

Yes things could get worse in the near future because things appear to be on a much grander scale now, but i can't see it being any worse now than it was then regarding people being faced with major world catastrophes.

No - the problem is that with modern medicine and oil based industrial scale farming we have made it possible for the human population to grow to a level that is already completely unsustainable without oil based agriculture.

That is the difference between now and past times.

I will not argue that there has not been starvation due to the failure of agriculture for natural reasons such as drought or crop disease, but this time we face the phenomenon of crops not yielding enough to feed the existing population because we can no longer process the fertiliser necessary to grow the crops, becaus the oil that is turned into fertiliser is initially too exoensive [as it gets scarcer and harder to extract] and eventually is effectively exhausted.

This is not comparable to previous failures of cropping for once it starts, due to the oil shortage that is inevtable, there is nothing that will reverse the trend. It is not a year's problem or several years' problem, but one for eternity.

ATB from George

Ah, ok George, thanks for explanation, i understand now.

On another note, i see a programme on TV not so long ago about the amount of food that is wasted or thrown away and to add to the fire it is having a major impact on global warming
All these massive supermarket chains being one of the worst culprits, makes me feel sick that this goes on.
The amount of food that we throw away because we buy much more than we need.
I tend to shop daily now to avoid such measures. It tastes better too.
P.S i wished they made those bicycle trailers abit cheaper.
regards, steve (who only rides a pushbike as a means of transport) best way to get around town.

Dear Steve,

It is both amazing and tragic that the industrial scale should be so promoting of waste in the rich old world and yet we see borderline starvation in the third world already.

The problem of the increasing cost of food relative to earnings is already biting in the poorest parts of the world, and nothing can reverse this trend. The old world of wealthy nations can aid the poorest, but this a band-aid, not a systemic cure.

Sadly I fear there is no systemic cure except the unacceptable one of promoting stringent birth control for at least three generations till we get back to pre-1945 levels of human population.

Unless this is done, in practice Nature will enforce it in any case.

The resultant mayhem will make all previous human disasters - the World Wars, the genocides, the Holocaust - look like picnic scale problems ...

I can see no one asking the questions let alone the wise promoting debate on it.

Without debate then opinion on it must remain the private musing of a tiny elite, who are too irresponsible to place the plain truth before the world's publics.

One cannot enforce birth control from above without revolution and rebellion.

The general population has to realise the value of its full support for this idea and I suspect that it will always be something that is avoided.

To be honest I think we are probably thirty or forty byears too late to get such ideas going and changing things before a catastrophe overtakes the human race in any case. Some will survive, but I have no intention of joining this race to survival, or compelling any off-spring to be forced [unwittingly] to have to join in it either

I sincerely hope that my remaining years are not cut short by the issues outlined here.

Selfish as that must sound.

ATB from George