Let's discuss Peak Oil

I have not read the articles, and there lies the rub! You can only discuss this on the basis of what the oil producers are prepared to release as information about stocks known to exist.

Experts in the field can express opinions, but this will always be based on insufficient information as a result.

It is in the interests of oil producers to give the impression that Peak Production is either already passed or imminent. This keeps the commodity price high, and lets speculative trading drive it further up ...

ATB from George

Please take time to read the articles George, they are very important. The articles address your concerns about supply information.

Best,
BBM

Seems to me that we had better have some good contingency plans, for sure!

I roughly scanned the articles, and commend your choice. Articulate, thought out, and seeming they have a ring of truth to them.

ATB from George

George

The major international oil companies continually overstate their proven reserves because it inflates their stock values.

The oil exporting nations overstate their proven reserves because it gives them greater political influence. Also, with OPEC members, their production quotas are determined by the size of their reserves. They do not allow third party auditing or analysis of these numbers.

The oil majors and OPEC countries are unreliable sources of information.

The vast majority of peak oil writers are individuals with vast experience as geologists, production engineers, mathematicians and physicists. Despite the various methods they employ, they all seem to arrive at the same conclusion.

There is no contingency plan. That's why peak oil writers are trying to bring awareness of this issue to the public. Governments won't discuss the issue because they have no solution.

I attended a peak oil discussion in Calgary about a year and a half ago. The speaker was David Hughes who is a former senior geoscientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. His career spans four decades in the energy sector as a scientist and research manager. He has counselled federal, state, provincial, and municipal governments, as well as industry groups and professional organizations. I had the good fortune to have a short, private meeting with him after his presentation. This was a very sobering experience! He is in complete agreement with Colin Campbell, the co-author of "The End of Cheap Oil". Prior to that discussion, I had been relying on information from the internet and a number of books on the topic. It was shocking to hear a "real live" human being saying the same things right to my face.

I left the place not knowing whether to "shit or go blind". I will never forget that day!

The only reason I started this thread is to share information that I think is extremely important.

Best,
BBM

Most of my small annual mileage is done on a bike. I have Volvo 240 which driven carefully returns about 40 mpg [English not US, so 50 over 45 in conversion considering the standard barrel]. I am 48, so I expect to see real issues even before I retire, let alone reach a normal span.

I have grave fears for the possibility of sustaining today's human population - never mind the unprecedented growth that is current, even before I retire. Agricultural production in its current industrial style depends on oil to produce the nitrogen fertilizers that have enabled us so far to feed the burgeoning human population. No oil: much less food. Ergo mass starvation in our lifetimes.

What a mess. I also did not run any heating this winter, and the gas board were almost incredulous when I phoned the actual meter reading in to correct a massive over estimate, resulting in a last quarter bill of £4.85. This was because we ran the boiler up ready for the service man to check it over, and for a day after. Then I considered the cost benefit [more than simply the bill size] but this is not a very common attitude.

Unfortunately I have some very good friends overseas, and getting to foreign lands seems to be cheaper by a massive margin on an airplane. I am guilty of wasting oil on flights that should be far more expensive, and allowing for more efficient methods to be viable. Ships and trains, finished off with a cycle link. I can dream on, and it will take a big jolt to shake this in the general response.

I have expressed my hope that I find the time for these slower and less unsustainable means of transport, but the world is blind to all this.

It worries me something chronic on times.

I am no expert of course.

ATB from George

There is an interesting video on YouTube called "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy" by Albert A Bartlett. It is presented in 8 short segments. Here's the link...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

Albert A Bartlett is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Nuclear Physics at the University of Colorado. In this video he talks about exponential growth and the problems associated with it.

Highly recommended!

Best,
BBM

“Unless we believe, preposterously, that human inventiveness and adaptability will cease the year the world reaches the peak annual output of conventional crude oil, we should see that milestone (whenever it comes) as a challenging opportunity rather than as a reason for cult-like worries and paralyzing concerns.”

Food for thought.

The fact that even the US Military accept we are on the downward slope and companies are considering extracting from previously uneconomic sources is a pretty good indication of where we lie.

A world with reduced fertiliser outputs and no plastics, never mind fuel.

Regards and goodnight

Stephen

ah just think, a world without plastic and all those very fit people riding bikes miles and miles from the suburbs to get to work without smog.

Jim

Thanks for your contribution. Vaclav Smil completely misunderstands the magnitude of the Peak Oil issue. His faith in technological fixes and human adaptability is interesting. He completely ignores the time frame required to bring these new technologies on line in order to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil.

A more accurate assessment of the issue can be found in the Hirsch Report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005.

http://www.netl.doe.gov/public...Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

If you don't want to read the whole thing, here are the conclusions from that report...

http://www.costanzo.org/Commen..._hirsh_report_on.htm



Stephen

Thanks for your contribution.

Oil is the most precious commodity of all. When we eat food, we are literally eating oil. Diesel fuel for tractors, herbicides made from oil, and more diesel fuel to transport grain, food, and pretty much everything else to consumers. Plastics and pharmaceutical products are also heavily dependant on oil. There are countless other examples.

A much larger problem will be economic dislocation. Currently, our economies rely on growth year after year. Pure neoclassical economics. Our economies also run on credit. Money is lent out on the basis that the borrower will be able to pay back both the principal and interest. If you look at a graph of world oil production over the last century, and compare it to a graph of growth in world GDP, you will see that economic growth has followed the same curve as growth in world oil production. With Peak Oil, we are likely to see the end of economic growth. With a shrinking/stagnant economy, credit will literally become unavailable, since the borrower will be unable to pay back the principal let alone the interest. Without credit, our economies will not function. This is THE major consequence of Peak Oil.

Peak Oil will make the recent economic recession look like a walk in the park...

Best,
BBM

This article explains it better than I can, and as a bonus, it has some interesting graphs...


http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50722

Best,
BBM

Between the Peak Oil here, mikeeschman's oil spill off the Louisiana coast and my crude oil being traded on the financial markets we find ourselves surrounded by a glut of oil, at least on this forum.

The advice in the film The Graduate, "plastics" was an amazing prediction.

Horticulture was a terrible choice to study career wise.