Egypt & its Implications

Posted by: Mike-B on 30 January 2011

It was widely forecast the Tunisian uprising & its leadership change was a precursor for more of the same in the region
The big fear is that if Egypt went the same way then most of N.Africa & some if not all of the near east counties would be at risk for the same. 

What's the forum thinking on the regions stability if as it seems Mubarak is all but finished
Will radical Islamic elements become a serious political force in these countries, or do the people want some form of real democracy
Posted on: 30 January 2011 by Simon-in-Suffolk
These people have rightly had enough of dicatorships, tyranies and religious fundamentalist groups they are wanting democracy and the freedom to chose thier own government - rather than it be imposed. In my view this is how regime change should be done - ie by the popular people rather orchestrated by governments with vested interests.
Posted on: 30 January 2011 by Timbo
There was a small article in my local paper (The Edmonton Journal) asserting that the Egypt uprising was USA backed. Can't corroborate this from any other popular sources as yet - anyone else have an insight?

Tim
Posted on: 30 January 2011 by Don Atkinson
Middle East states and full and free elections seem to be an oxymoron. I can't think of too many, stable, fully democratic middle east states, off-hand.

Lets hope Tunisia and Egypt set a new, path.

Cheers

Don
Posted on: 01 February 2011 by Don Atkinson
BBC news suggested Iran might be next.

No mention of the Feudal, but benevolent rulers from Kuwait to Oman, or Lybia.

Could affect us all if current leaders are replaced with more agressive/ambitious regimes

Cheers

Don
Posted on: 01 February 2011 by TomK
I seem to remember in 1979 when the shah was overthrown that was regarded favourably by many commentators and look how that turned out.
Could be trouble ahead.
Posted on: 01 February 2011 by Skip
I read the same thing that the USA was behind the uprising.  I wonder how instability in Egypt is in the interest of the USA?
Posted on: 02 February 2011 by Mike-B
I think yr right Don,  the Iranian people have already had a go at uprising,  so this new wave is bound to stir the pot again.  

Not too sure about the regional kingdoms & sheikdoms,  these all seem pretty stable with more or less low or even negative taxes & a good standard of living.  The danger as I see it is the radical movements,  & that does not mean Taliban, might see this general unrest as an opportunity to gain a better foothold.

The next pot that is almost at boiling point is Yemen
Yesterday President Saleh said he will not extend his presidency in 2013. Also that he would not pass on the position to his son,  as is the age old arabic traditional.  This announcement was ahead of a "day of rage" rally on Thursday.  Implications of a rally on Thursday means it will spill over into Friday (holy day)  & a good chance into Saturday

The situation in Yemen is as bad as it gets in the Mid-east economic region with very high 3% p.a. population growth, 40% unemployment,  huge unknown but estimated at 50% food price inflation and endemic malnutrition. I guess we all might be tempted to mutiny living with that.
Posted on: 06 February 2011 by backfromoz
oh Well here come the Muslim Brotherhood!!!!

or another Iran!!!!!

a potential mess in that part of the world.
Posted on: 11 February 2011 by BigH47
Bye bye Hosni. What next?
Posted on: 13 February 2011 by Kevin-W
I think many of the people posting in this thread are being patronising in the extreme. The Egyptian people are perfectly capable of creating a mature democracy for themselves. An Islamic theocracy is not beyond the realms of possibility, but it's not a certainty either.

Surely it's a good thing if people overthrow tyrants/despotic regimes? Hopefully this will spread from Tunisia and Egypt to other spots in the Middle east and further abroad. I suspect regimes in Yemen, Algeria, Syria, Saudi, Jordan etc are getting a bit jittery - and with good reason.

Oppressed people overthrowing despotic rulers is not "a potential mess". It's freakin' great.

Comparisons with the '79 Iranian revolution are not particularly helpful, or valid for that matter. I can tell you why later if you like, I've got to go to Sainsbury's but I'll be back.
Posted on: 13 February 2011 by Hook
Originally Posted by Kevin-W:

Oppressed people overthrowing despotic rulers is not "a potential mess". It's freakin' great.


Could not possibly agree more!   Never thought that their peaceful protests, their nonviolent resistance, could have such a positive result.   Can you just imagine how difficult it has been for ordinary Egyptians to try and get ahead in that culture of corruption?   I can only hope that their efforts will bring more than just the end of a dictator.

I also hope that the only influence the US exerts is on the military high command to bring free and fair elections to the Egyptian people within a reasonable amount of time.

I think that anyone who thinks democracy is good for us, but not for them, should take a long look in the mirror.  To me, democracy is a principle that you either believe in or you don't....absolutely.   Who the Egyptians choose to lead them is their business. 

Don't they, and everyone else, deserve that opportunity?

Hook