Ashes Winter

Yes, Bruce. I'm looking forward to it, too.  

Prior's injury is a bit of a worry.  I hope Carberry gets a place as he seems to be in form and is physically powerful.  

You're right about Johnson. He seems to be either deadly or rubbish with nothing in between.  

The first test could be crucial because I think it will have big influence on the confidence of both teams.  If the Aussies lose it I can see the divisions between some of the players and the Board of selectors surfacing in a damaging way.  Win and that gritty Aussie spirit is likely to come flooding back which could compensate for the lower technical quality when comparing the two squads man-for-man.

Like you, I think this series will be closer than the last.

MDS 

Nice start to the series. Fair play to Haddin/Johnson but lets face it the top order should be scoring those runs on a wicket where hardly a ball has deviated from the straight and narrow

Forgive my unaccustomed confidence but we are surely going to score a hatful on that.

Told you Broad would enjoy himself!

Bruce

After losing the toss at the Gabba with its flat track I think England should be well pleased to have the Aussies 273 for 8 at the close.  Nice to hear some the local crowd giving Broad some stick. He's the sort of character who will thrive on that. Johnson looks confident, though.

MDS 

eeeugh!  136 all out

Spoiled my day totally. I can cope with Johnsn and Harris doing well but Nathan Lyon even took 2 wickets in 2 balls.

Nothing like a good 'ol fashioned collapse. Suddenly every ball is a hand grenade, feet stuck, heads confused. Trott needs urgent runs, Prior too. Still they'll have a second innings chance.

...and it is still a good wicket.

Bruce

Yes, Bruce. My day has become gloomy, too.  Re the pitch, commentators are suggesting cracks are appearing and batting fourth will be tricky.

Time to hunker down and go for a draw, I think.

MDS  

Or pray for tempest/bushfire/plague of frogs

Bruce

I'm thinking positive. This should set up a really good series, England fighting back to regain some status.

Going to be a lot of short fast bowling. Could be spicy.

Bruce

Wouldn't be the first time we've got off to a slow start in a Test series and gone on to win it.  

MDS

Oh dear, oh dear.  Two days to survive with only eight wickets.  Will need some truly heroic performances and oodles of patience.  The latter quality is in short supply in most modern cricketers, I think (as one G Boycott will no doubt remind us).  Looking to the rest of the series, it's rather worrying that the Aussie attack seems to have discovered Trott's weakness.  Can he correct this before the second test, I wonder?  

Never has my decision to cancel my Sky subscription seemed so wise, I could still be horrified by the (inevitable for me) thrashing but I'm not suffering from sleep deprivation .

Trott is going home, which may actually be the bravest decision. I think it is clear he is in a bad place and if he had stayed that might have ended his career. Marcus Trescothick is a good reference point when talking about mental illness/stress and professional sportsmen. His book is an excellent insight for those who fail to understand depression. Graham Thorpe had similar problems too.

As for this Tour now, I'm actually looking forward to it. The tough part about being top is staying on top. We've been a very good Test side for ages but now the gauntlet is being laid down it is time to show our mettle. I don't think this is anywhere near a great Aussie side, especially with the bat. We've bounced back from poor starts before. Maybe not quite this poor.....

Bruce

Ye gods this is like watching an extended car crash.

I did not think the margin was so big-on Day 1 again we were pretty close to them but slipshod fielding and the combative Haddin again took it away. We then crumbled with little intelligence or application.

Last summer felt like we won without really playing well; suddenly now we look jaded and carrying some expired players.

I predict this is the end or close to it for a fair few players (and Andy Flower). Pietersen, Prior, Swann, and maybe Anderson within another year or so.

Bresnan for Swann, Bairstow for Prior and maybe even Finn for Panesar in Perth? Odd isn't it-when the batsmen fail the bowlers get dropped!

Fair play to Johnson-full of fire and now accuracy to boot. Clarke a quality act but the rest of the Aussie batting order still nothing to really get excited about. We are just not good enough to get them under pressure.

Bruce

More like a train crash methinks Bruce

I agree your names list that must be up for consideration.  Not so sure Perth is the place for anything radical as experience is the one thing we will need along with a good helping of common sense & some crease sticking staying power. Given a good batting performance our bowlers do have enough between them to handle the batting line up as a whole.  We don't need spinners but the way Finn played in England makes me wonder if we can risk another hissy fit with him in an already demoralised side.

The big thing that must be done is somehow get Cook re-motivated, the way he looked at the post match interview looks like he's thrown in the towel already.  

All rather depressing. I agree with Bruce that Johnson deserves due recognition for his performances over the first two tests. That said, England's players need to look at themselves. Some of the shots from our batsman have been irresponsible.  

Poor old Monty looks a likely sacrifice for Bresnan. I wouldn't be surprised to see even Swann stood down for Perth in favour of another seamer.  Giving the Aussie batsmen a taste of their own medicine with a four pace bowler attack wouldn't be a bad plan.

Massacre

At least in boxing if you are punched to the ground that is it; here we have to get up and paly them 5 times. This is now surely a total technical and mental demolition. Test cricket again proves to be the most ruthless of disciplines.

Stats I heard this morning; only Peter Siddle and Chris Rodgers have a worse series average than our best batsman (Bell). Australia have scored obver a 1000 runs more than we have so far. Jimmy Anderson was hit for a record-equalling 28 of one over this morning. England have had to chase over 500 to win for three consecutive tests. Finally-Cook has never lost a Test against Austrlia when he has won the toss, and never won one when he has lost. he's lost all three so far.

How on earth do you pick a team for the next game? Look at their eyes and see if they fancy it maybe.

Bruce

Cook playing his 100th test

Duck first innings,  out 1st ball of the 2nd innings

- is that a diamond encrusted golden duck ?? 

Can't get worse - can it ???

Top scored 72 first innings in fairness

I like the look of

Root - leave him at 3 or 4 for gawd's sake.

Stokes - great player in the making

Carberry - nice solid opener

Cook as batsman - the golden duck just reflects his huge test experience

I've had enough of:

KP - will never get a decent score

Cook as captain - drifts along, no real ability in this dept

Andy Flower - awful

Swann - time to move on

bad behaviour on the pitch

Of course the outcome of any given match or series is essentially random. Statistical analysis shows that the best predictor of a batsman's score is his career average to that point. Nothing else really matters, statistically speaking. "Form", "streaks", "team spirit", "captaincy", "leadership", "strategy" etc all seem like they should matter, but in reality batsmen's scores are always just random variations around their average. Selectors should simply pick the team with the highest average score for batsmen and the lowest runs per wicket for bowlers. Anything else is pretence.

The captain doesn't matter beyond being able to actually organise things a bit. Field placements are ascribed far more significance than is warranted. A completely random field placement would perform no worse than a "carefully selected" one.

I agree it's time for KP to go. He has been indulged for too long and his dismissal this morning was irresponsible.  

But let's not get too down-hearted. Yes, we're going to lose the Ashes and this series has so far been very depressing but there are some young players coming through with real promise and grit. The future is bright. And Cook is only 28 so has quite a few years yet to regain his world-class status.

Those of us who remember England 1981 - two awful matches under Botham followed by a brilliant streak under Brearley - will clearly not agree with this analysis.

Brearley's book on captaincy is a very interesting read and not just regarding cricket.

I think on field decisions do make a difference; knowing when to attack, exploiting individual weaknesses or just sowing seeds in the mind of the batsmen. I'm a 'keeper and definitely we work out and plan dismissals with the captian bowler and fielder. Little bit of sledging always a bonus too....

More than that a captain motivates encourages and drives the team as a unit-as brings out individuals in the context of the group.

Well done Australia. They have executed their plans and been relentless once ahead. I still don't think they are a great team but they are playing a great series.

Bruce

It seems the loss of the Ashes has prompted Swann's retirement from the game. Although he wasn't a force in this series, he'll be hard to replace for his skill and game-winning attitude.