Brexit is off ?

Is Brexit off? Well, it looks like the voters in the constituency of Richmond think it should be. It will be interesting to see how HMG reacts to this. The Brexiteers will probably rush to rubbish the result but I wonder whether calmer heads will want to think it about it more deeply.

Not sure what there is to rubbish, or indeed HMG to react to.  A leafy London suburb, home to the likes of Jagger, Townsend and Ashcroft and a good portion of the rest working in Finance, dwelling in houses worth average circa £900k, used this by-election to vote again to remain, while missing the whole point of it being about Heathrow expansion, and deposing a very decent politician in the process. Is their new Lib Dem MP really going to wield enough influence to overturn the referendum? Is HMG going to be forced to view this as a barometer of the feelings of the wider UK population? I don't think so somehow. Looks more like misguided/wasted votes IMHO.

oh dear - 70% of Richmond voted to remain - and if as the LibDems are saying this result depicts the view of the constituents on whether we remain or leave the  Single Market when we leave the EU, then this has dropped to around 50% of the vote. . A worsening of 20% since the June referendum assuming all remainers and a fair few leavers wanted to be part of the Single Market if possible. 

However I do genuinely fear the growing wiff  of liberal authoritarianism than is starting to appear in some place - I'll ignore your vote because I know best.... fortunately I suspect most of population despise such undemocratic behaviour and will show it more generally in the ballot box at general elections. But I congratulate the LibDems on the 9 MPs now an increase of 12.5% over night

I agree that the new Lib Dem MP won't wield overturn the referendum result. However the sort of questions that this by-election result might pose include:

What might it mean for the HMG's prospects for getting the Art 50 'bill' through the House of Commons? Better or worse? This result was achieved in a rock-solid Conservative constituency with a massive majority.  How many Tory MPs will now look at how their constituents voted in the referendum and for those constituencies that voted 'remain' worry that come an election they might be turfed out on the basis that they are not representing their constituents' views?  Will that worry make those Tory MPs more or less likely to support HMG in Brexit before we get to an election?  

But the Torys didn't put forward an MP to stand - traditionally Torys have voted Liberal in tactical elections so that is probably where many of their  votes went - UKIP didn't put forward a candidate either. It was really a race between Liberals, Labour and an Independent ....... perhaps it was a mistake for the Torys not to have put forward a candidate..... The Official Monster Raving Loony Party came fourth..

Agreed Simon, but I still wonder whether this result will sow the seeds of doubt in the mind of some Tory MPs for constituencies which voted 'remain'.  In Richmond of course Goldsmith was clear that he supported Brexit, notwithstanding the strong vote to 'remain' in his constituency.  The Brexit camp, as Bill Cash said on TV this morning, argue that democracy must rule here and that since the referendum was in favour of, this by-election result doesn't affect that.  Fair point.  But isn't it also democratic for MPs to represent the views of their constituents rather that do the opposite as Goldsmith seemed to do on this issue? Politicians are remarkably flexible creatures when it comes to ensuring their own survival and career prospects - witness the antics of Boris and Gove before and after the referendum.  

This was never going to be a result that could have significance for the Brexit / Remain debacle.

To truly be of significance it would have to have been a politically safe Labour seat and to have voted in a staunch Remainer Liberal.  Only then could it be interpreted as a clear move against Brexit.

Mike - almost certainly there are seeds of doubt everywhere - its the name of the game. Also I congratulate Sara Olney on her democratic win and I hope  she will represent all her constituents to the best of her ability - irrespective of her personal views. Its the positioning and extrapolation of fantastical situations that I  poke fun at  by those desperate to make something from it that it isn't.

I don't see the Richmond Park result as significant.   Its always been strong Liberal with Tory the only competition,  the rest were lost deposits. Goldsmith was a Tory win in 2010 due to the anti-LibDem backlash.    In the referendum 70% voted remain & Goldsmith voted leave so he was on the back foot from the start of this election.    Ms Olney campaigned on an anti-brexit ticket & that played the right tune for the 70%.   So I see this result as Richmond going back to its roots,  bolstered by the 70% remain but the LibDem/Tory share of the vote for this election is aprx the same as the pre-Goldsmith elections. 

MDS,

Even though we have a representative democracy - i.e. the representative should represent the views of their constituents; acting against that we have the party whip system where a politician's career is dependant on them toeing the party line even if this goes against the general perception of the views of their constituents.  Thus in this country the system we have is not correctly acting as a representative democracy, but as a democratically selected binary oligarchy.

It's not significant as a guide but it is significant in that it demonstrates that the status quo, against which many of us voted against with brexit, has been well and truly upset and it is a refreshing pleasure to see people making voting decisions based upon policy and not habit.  It's amusing to see how politicians continue to misjudge the public mood at every turn

dayjay posted:

...  It's amusing to see how politicians continue to misjudge the public mood at every turn

Whereas... ?

SamS posted:

 A leafy London suburb, home to the likes of Jagger, Townsend and Ashcroft and a good portion of the rest working in Finance, dwelling in houses worth average circa £900k, used this by-election to vote again to remain, while missing the whole point of it being about Heathrow expansion, and deposing a very decent politician in the process. Is their new Lib Dem MP really going to wield enough influence to overturn the referendum? Is HMG going to be forced to view this as a barometer of the feelings of the wider UK population? I don't think so somehow. Looks more like misguided/wasted votes IMHO.

Exactly. One of the richest parts of the UK in effect vote to remain. Well, what a shocker 

dayjay posted:

It's amusing to see how politicians continue to misjudge the public mood at every turn

The public mood was shown by the referendum result. Where the whole nation voted. Whether you like the result or not.  Using an election vote in leafy, wealthy, Richmond, to push some sort of idea that public mood is changing, is frankly rather desperate.

Wugged Woy posted:

dayjay posted:

It's amusing to see how politicians continue to misjudge the public mood at every turn

The public mood was shown by the referendum result.

was - yes was.

Circumstances have changed and there's no accurate way to now know the current mood.  Since the margin was small it may have swung the other way - or not!

Wugged Woy posted:

...
Where the whole nation voted.
...

Err, no; not the whole nation.

Wugged Woy posted:

...
Whether you like the result or not.  Using an election vote in leafy, wealthy, Richmond, to push some sort of idea that public mood is changing, is frankly rather desperate.
...

Not no much desperate as completely inappropriate!

This is a storm in a teacup.

Well Zac miss-judged the public opinion in Richmond !

He sure did !

It'll be interesting if the Italian politicians have misjudged the mood there - going to be very interesting indeed as Italy is third largest economy in the Eurozone and the most indebted  - and they are playing out their own project fear to their electorate to keep status quo - be interesting to see how that one flows

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

It'll be interesting if the Italian politicians have misjudged the mood there - going to be very interesting indeed as Italy is third largest economy in the Eurozone and the most indebted  - and they are playing out their own project fear to their electorate to keep status quo - be interesting to see how that one flows

And the French presidential election to follow...

and Austria and then the Netherlands.. probably accounts for why the pound has been steadily rising against the Euro for a month now .. heard nothing about any price cuts yet through or reduced inflationary pressures.........  

Up another .5c today

S

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

 Also I congratulate Sara Olney on her democratic win and I hope  she will represent all her constituents to the best of her ability - irrespective of her personal views...

I hope I didn't speak to soon, but it appears she broke of mid flow on a live radio interview by Talk Radio early this afternoon when they interviewer was exploring with what she meant in terms of Brexit with her catch line...   "Agreed to depart but not agree destination". Hopefully its just first day servers and she didn't get much sleep last night. I guess the spin doctors will be busy trying to bury that one now.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Mike - almost certainly there are seeds of doubt everywhere - its the name of the game. Also I congratulate Sara Olney on her democratic win and I hope  she will represent all her constituents to the best of her ability - irrespective of her personal views. Its the positioning and extrapolation of fantastical situations that I  poke fun at  by those desperate to make something from it that it isn't.

 

Yes.

Like when it is claimed that "The People have spoken" when in fact only 25% "spoke" to leave and of those who did vote, only a small majority voted to leave.

There is no widespread, overwhelming enthusiasm to Leave. But Brexit can't accept this,. That is what I call the extrapolation of a fantastical situation by desperate people.

No I agree - I think there is no overwhelming enthusiasm to leave because of all the necessary disruption and complications of unravelling years of insipid and often not very transparent bureaucracy from Brusells- the alternative of staying however fills many with dread, despair and alienation - especially the less well heeled and prosperous in our country - and a majority of eligible voters who were prepared to vote stated they wished to leave - that is what is meant by the 'people'. A Win is a win - and despite Sarah Olney only getting in by a relatively small majority of votes - its still a win.

Its sad looking back at the shock of people like Cameron when they left their Westminster cocoon and spoke to real people up and down the land and started to realise not all see the state of the country and Europe in the same way as the liberal elite. We need a government and democracy that caters for everyone - and if it doesn't it can be elected out rather than being shackled by a third party administration setting the agenda.

And the rhetoric coming out of the EU towards Britain since the referendum to me show that administration in its true colours - toxic, divisive and self serving. I am quite impressed how restrained our politicians have been over it - I have been fuming personally and offended - I almost feel its racist and it has polarised my position since the vote and at the time I was a waverer - pros and cons both sides.

Wugged Woy posted:

dayjay posted:

It's amusing to see how politicians continue to misjudge the public mood at every turn

The public mood was shown by the referendum result. Where the whole nation voted. Whether you like the result or not.  Using an election vote in leafy, wealthy, Richmond, to push some sort of idea that public mood is changing, is frankly rather desperate.

Almost as desperate as your interpretation of my post.  I was refering to the then incumbent MP and his judgement of what matters most to his former constituents whch backfired rather badly. I rather liked to result of the referendum, thank you very much, despite the fact that the whole nation didn't vote at all.  BTW, very subtle highlighting of the Rich in Richmond, added significantly to the weight of your argument I thought.