Labour ?

Dave and Dayjay I think both spot on

I'll go for a moderate increase in the Tory majority, maybe of another 10-15. Opinion Polls will probably be underestimating Tory votes (have in past) and also they are going to pick up old UKIP voters but Labour's vote seems to have genuinely solidified. I reckon LDs hardly change.

So frankly what a waste of time it will have been. I see no sign of the Tories changing tack if they win despite the battering they have taken.

We'll have TM suitably emboldened and carrying on as she wishes and Corbyn and his devotees will subscribe to the 'one more push' idea so he will stay on. Will he have a united Parliamentary party though? Doubt it. I will predict lots of discussion and rumour about a new centre-left party if he fails to stand aside. It will be called 'New Labour, The Sequel' and be wholly funded by Blair. Maybe

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced.

Bruce

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced. 

Ooh, hadn't thought of that.  We can certainly hope.

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

 

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced.

 

The more likely shuffle is Philip Hammond out and Amber Rudd replacing him.

Who knows what will happen, as Dr Ninestein used to say, “Expect the unexpected”

One thing I do expect is the grey vote to desert the Tory’s. I’ve noticed over the years, old people become more selfish and confused the older they get. Most of them probably didn’t know their homes could be sold to pay for care at present. The manifesto no cap fiasco has highlighted the fact, the Tory’s will steal their children’s inheritance.

At the other end of the age range, young people might remember what happened, because they didn’t bother voting in the Brexit referendum.

Or, if this wind and rain continues, the old and young might not bother to vote.

Note sure about the 'grey vote'. From a purely unrepresentative sample of my parents they despise Corbyn as a 70's throwback and have memories of the 3 day week etc. The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

Remember also that the elder age groups voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

Bruce

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

I wonder if for some though ... that slur of being considered "red" might work to skew the polls ... in the same way as they say people don't want to admit they are Torys.

Just a thought...

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Note sure about the 'grey vote'. From a purely unrepresentative sample of my parents they despise Corbyn as a 70's throwback and have memories of the 3 day week etc. The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

Remember also that the elder age groups voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

Bruce

The irony of this is that many elderly folk voted for Brexit attracted by the promise of an extra £350 million per week on the NHS - which was never really going to happen due to it being a big fat whopper and just to attract the gullible into voting Leave.

Another irony is Corby is a bit unlikely to win the GE anyhow let alone send us back to the 70s, but the Tory-UKIP BREXIT will definitely do just that being the perfect vehicle to inflict harsh right wing Tory ideology on the UK people; poor human rights issues, unfair 70s employment laws, 70s style Gender equality, racism, homophobia, bullying, ageism.... 

Debs

naim_nymph posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Note sure about the 'grey vote'. From a purely unrepresentative sample of my parents they despise Corbyn as a 70's throwback and have memories of the 3 day week etc. The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

Remember also that the elder age groups voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

Bruce

The irony of this is that many elderly folk voted for Brexit attracted by the promise of an extra £350 million per week on the NHS - which was never really going to happen due to it being a big fat whopper and just to attract the gullible into voting Leave.

Another irony is Corby is a bit unlikely to win the GE anyhow let alone send us back to the 70s, but the Tory-UKIP BREXIT will definitely do just that being the perfect vehicle to inflict harsh right wing Tory ideology on the UK people; poor human rights issues, unfair 70s employment laws, 70s style Gender equality, racism, homophobia, bullying, ageism.... 

Debs

Here we go - the usual diatribe.  

How about this for the understatement of the election campaign...

from an interview with Jeremy Corbyn... "Well, they (the Conservatives) don’t seem to like me very much, but I’m coping."

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Note sure about the 'grey vote'. From a purely unrepresentative sample of my parents they despise Corbyn as a 70's throwback and have memories of the 3 day week etc. The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

Remember also that the elder age groups voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

Bruce

Perhaps you should point out to them the BMA, appear to be the most efficient bulwark fighting against the annihilation of the NHS. Has there ever been a more popular trade union.

For a lot of people, the three day week was followed by the zero day week.

fatcat posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Note sure about the 'grey vote'. From a purely unrepresentative sample of my parents they despise Corbyn as a 70's throwback and have memories of the 3 day week etc. The slur of being a 'red' is quite powerful for them.

Remember also that the elder age groups voted heavily in favour of Brexit.

Bruce

Perhaps you should point out to them the BMA, appear to be the most efficient bulwark fighting against the annihilation of the NHS. Has there ever been a more popular trade union.

For a lot of people, the three day week was followed by the zero day week.

Trust me, having a political debate with my parents is not going to happen. You should hear their rationale for voting Brexit; along the lines of being ruled by the Germans despite us winning the war. Cannot really answer that. They are in their mid 80's

Bruce

I think Dave***T's prediction has merit but I would see things playing out a bit differently within the Conservative party.

If such a result comes to pass I think TM's credibility is fatally holed-below-the-waterline because the argument she used to justify her U-turn on calling election will have well and truly unravelled: she will not have secured a better mandate from the electorate for her (hard) Brexit; the opposition will have been emboldened; her negotiating position with the rest of the EU will be weaker. And in addition, some of her new domestic policies like the 'dementia tax' will have re-enforced the label of 'nasty party' that she had pledged to move away from.  I just can't imagine how she will be able to stand outside No10 on Friday morning and disguise how a result with the Tory's majority largely unchanged as anything other than her personal failure, both in terms of calling the election and in how she's performed during the campaign.  Anything less that a significant increase in her majority and, if she doesn't decide to stand down, I think the Conservative party will move to get rid of her.  Remember how efficiently and ruthlessly they moved to get rid of beloved Thatcher?

Eloise posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

 

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced.

 

The more likely shuffle is Philip Hammond out and Amber Rudd replacing him.

Scary thought - I'm no Tory lover, but at least Hammond has a background in business, economics and finance. The thought of him being replaced by one of May's acolytes whose only commercial experience was in investment banking, is truly worrying.

MDS

Interesting scenario and argument.

An election that resulted in an emboldened Labour leader and a new Tory one was surely no-ones prediction 6 weeks ago! Quite a thought. Of course any new Tory PM might feel the need for an electoral mandate. Maybe be we are in some kind of Groundhog Day. Aargh.

Bruce

Yes, Bruce. Groundhog day, indeed. And we might also have that feeling if and when the Tory's decide a new leader is required. There's no obvious successor. And the blood-letting after the Brexit referendum, and more when TM decided her new cabinet, will still be fresh in the minds of the Tory grandees and those harbouring ambitions.  

I must confess to finding the prospect of a divided Opposition and a divided party of government a rather depressing one.    

Timmo1341 posted:

Eloise posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

 

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced.

 

The more likely shuffle is Philip Hammond out and Amber Rudd replacing him.

Scary thought - I'm no Tory lover, but at least Hammond has a background in business, economics and finance. The thought of him being replaced by one of May's acolytes whose only commercial experience was in investment banking, is truly worrying.

Seems like TM and AR have been doing all the Tory campaign heavy lifting. (although TM’s dropped most of it).

The only leadership qualities they have, is they are bossy women. I’m not sure this is a vote winner, although apparently some people are attracted to this kind of thing.

With May's love of shoes, it would be rather ironic if she gets the boot.

fatcat posted:

Timmo1341 posted:

Eloise posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

 

The only possible good news I can hope for is Jeremy Hunt being replaced.

 

The more likely shuffle is Philip Hammond out and Amber Rudd replacing him.

Scary thought - I'm no Tory lover, but at least Hammond has a background in business, economics and finance. The thought of him being replaced by one of May's acolytes whose only commercial experience was in investment banking, is truly worrying.

The only leadership qualities they have, is they are bossy women. I’m not sure this is a vote winner, although apparently some people are attracted to this kind of thing.

 

A significant percentage of the House of Lords, by all accounts (and quite a few of their male colleagues in the Commons!).

I tend to agree with most of the predictions stated.

I'm not particularly a fan of Mrs May or Mrs Rudd, but they come across extremely well, in comparison  to Diane Abbott, who apparently has had another car crash interview with sky news, although I have not heard the interview, I'm reading about another embarrassing lack of research on her part and an apparent absence for a radio 4 interview this morning, stating sudden illness....has she been pulled by JC? maybe it's for the best...

If Labour win on Friday will all those that have exiled themselves suddenly be keen for a place in the Cabinet? Yvette Cooper?

The Strat (Fender) posted:

If Labour win on Friday will all those that have exiled themselves suddenly be keen for a place in the Cabinet? Yvette Cooper?

I think she is in training for strictly come dancing... 

wenger2015 posted:

I'm not particularly a fan of Mrs May or Mrs Rudd, but they come across extremely well,

Hmmm. Interesting.

The Strat (Fender) posted:

If Labour win on Friday will all those that have exiled themselves suddenly be keen for a place in the Cabinet? Yvette Cooper?

Comments today from both Yvette Cooper and (today and in the past) Jeremy Corbyn might suggest this is not as unlikely as it might at first appear.

wenger2015 posted:

I'm not particularly a fan of Mrs May or Mrs Rudd, but they come across extremely well,

The come accross well as what though?  Androids which have failed the Turing Test at the first hurdle perhaps?

in comparison  to Diane Abbott, who apparently has had another car crash interview with sky news,

At at least she answers questions, not just repeat rhetoric and ignoring the difficult parts of the question ... well ignoring the question.

although I have not heard the interview, I'm reading about another embarrassing lack of research on her part and an apparent absence for a radio 4 interview this morning, stating sudden illness....has she been pulled by JC? maybe it's for the best...

Unless you know something ... I really don't think repeating / paraphrasing Priti Patel's venomous comments.  I think she missed the memo that the Tories were no longer to be the Nasty Party.

Isn't fit ironic how the Left love spitting venom as they label the Conservatives nasty party.