Labour ?

rodwsmith posted:

The prospect of a Trump/Corbyn meeting, on British soil, in the company of the Queen, as part of a State Visit, is surely so delicious that even dyed-in-the-wool Tories must be tempted...

 

enjoy

ken

rodwsmith posted:

The prospect of a Trump/Corbyn meeting, on British soil, in the company of the Queen, as part of a State Visit, is surely so delicious that even dyed-in-the-wool Tories must be tempted...

 

The tories don't have what could realistically be called a brexit "team".

More like an uberfuhrer and three boot licking lackeys.

Mike-B posted:

Eloise posted:

Mike-B posted:

Finally I do have a lot of confidence in the Concervative brexit team,  unlike any & all others from any other party.

You have confidence in David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox?

Yes

Care to elaborate and explain why? In terms of professional negotiation experience I would suggest none of them come close to Keir Starmer.

Cdb posted:

Mike-B posted:

You have confidence in David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox?       Yes

I think you have more confidence than the Tory campaign as dodgy Liam Fox has been completely invisible for the last three weeks and not seen much before that!

Clive

My 'Yes' was deliberate,  I was avoiding the rambling talk-around & not giving a straight answer in the style of some well known politicians.  

The reality is this is the only team we have & is the team that will be at work from 19th June,  JC hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GE,  & even less of getting a parliamentary majority,  so at best he will need to form a coalition.  My bet's that LD's will loose seats & will be less than the 8 they have now, maybe half.  SNP is the only alternative,  so can we really imagine JC in cahoots with NS negotiating brexit  !!!  

But wtr to the team we know about:    I am concerned that Boris is inexperienced in a negotiating role, his reputation that goes before him & ability to stay on track.  Fox might prove useful as he does have the ability to think outside the box & has trade deal experience outside EU,  but might be loose cannon.   Davis to me exudes the most confidence as probably a key person in the team.     Then please don't forget the other team players,  most of which are career professionals & in the real world of negotiations will probably where most of the detail will be done.

Hmack posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

I read that she was 'taking a break' due to ill health. I'm sure she is a great constituency MP, but she's been something of an electoral liability. Corbyn has done really well and has improved immeasurably during the last few weeks, whereas May just trots out the same tired soundbites. Let's hope that, if the Tories do win, she has some decent people at the Brexit strong and stable table, because May herself seems unable to move and flex as is so critical in negotiations, and if she continues to spout as she does, she'll only get more and more barriers put up. 

But put May aside -  LABOUR ARE GOING TO WIN!!! 

Let's hope so!

A bit too much to hope for I guess, but at least it may not be the landslide victory that May & her cronies expected when she so opportunistically called the election. Our consolation will be that May's own stock with the British electorate has been very deservedly significantly reduced.

May, Hammond, Hunt, Rudd, Fox, Davis & Johnson - what a sorry lot! Almost (but not quite) makes one think that Cameron, Osborne & his lot weren't quite so bad after all. But then when I look back, we also had May, Gove & Letwin. How could that have been much better?

Theresa May penned & revelled in the phrase "The Nasty Party". Unfortunately, when the Tories win the election (sorry HH), I suspect that she & her colleagues will almost certainly fully live up to the tag, in respect of the Brexit negotiations, a lurch to the right with the continued running down of the NHS and the State Education systems, and the general distribution of wealth from the poorest to the richest members of our society.

Still, one can dream, at least for one more day.

This thread is just an endlessly boring tittle-tattle of meaningless speculation and gossip. Roll on Friday - hopefully it will die a natural death ....

Keep dreaming ...

Eloise posted:

Just incase anyone really isn't voting labour just because of the risk of Diane Abbott becoming Home Secretary.  Thats looking increasingly unlikely with her reportedly stepping aside "indefinitely" due to her current ill health.

I am not the least bit concerned about the risk of Diane Abbot becoming Home Secretary ....

ynwa250505 posted:

Eloise posted:

Just incase anyone really isn't voting labour just because of the risk of Diane Abbott becoming Home Secretary.  Thats looking increasingly unlikely with her reportedly stepping aside "indefinitely" due to her current ill health.

I am not the least bit concerned about the risk of Diane Abbot becoming Home Secretary ....

How about Chancellor? 

MDS posted:

I think Dave***T's prediction has merit but I would see things playing out a bit differently within the Conservative party.

If such a result comes to pass I think TM's credibility is fatally holed-below-the-waterline because the argument she used to justify her U-turn on calling election will have well and truly unravelled: she will not have secured a better mandate from the electorate for her (hard) Brexit; the opposition will have been emboldened; her negotiating position with the rest of the EU will be weaker. And in addition, some of her new domestic policies like the 'dementia tax' will have re-enforced the label of 'nasty party' that she had pledged to move away from.  I just can't imagine how she will be able to stand outside No10 on Friday morning and disguise how a result with the Tory's majority largely unchanged as anything other than her personal failure, both in terms of calling the election and in how she's performed during the campaign.  Anything less that a significant increase in her majority and, if she doesn't decide to stand down, I think the Conservative party will move to get rid of her.  Remember how efficiently and ruthlessly they moved to get rid of beloved Thatcher?

 

I would imagine that she will say she now has a mandate for her policies from the electorate even if it is a reduced majority and it will be hard to argue with that

Mike-B posted:

Cdb posted:

Mike-B posted:

You have confidence in David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox?       Yes

I think you have more confidence than the Tory campaign as dodgy Liam Fox has been completely invisible for the last three weeks and not seen much before that!

Clive

My 'Yes' was deliberate,  I was avoiding the rambling talk-around & not giving a straight answer in the style of some well known politicians.  

The reality is this is the only team we have & is the team that will be at work from 19th June,  JC hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of winning the GE,  & even less of getting a parliamentary majority,  so at best he will need to form a coalition.  My bet's that LD's will loose seats & will be less than the 8 they have now, maybe half.  SNP is the only alternative,  so can we really imagine JC in cahoots with NS negotiating brexit  !!!  

But wtr to the team we know about:    I am concerned that Boris is inexperienced in a negotiating role, his reputation that goes before him & ability to stay on track.  Fox might prove useful as he does have the ability to think outside the box & has trade deal experience outside EU,  but might be loose cannon.   Davis to me exudes the most confidence as probably a key person in the team.     Then please don't forget the other team players,  most of which are career professionals & in the real world of negotiations will probably where most of the detail will be done.

Well there's a difference between giving a straight answer and making an assertion without any evidence.

Now we have evidence, it seems that your confidence level is actually at about 33% as far as the politicians go. (Describing Fox as a loose cannon is a bit of an understatement!) I presume by the career professionals you mean the civil servants who would of course be available whatever the election result. It may be worth remembering Sir Ivan Rogers the top UK diplomat to the EU and his resignation letter. This didn't suggest we should have much confidence in May and her team, while he did also point out that the UK lacks diplomatic negotiating experience generally.

Clive 

ynwa250505 posted:

Hmack posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

I read that she was 'taking a break' due to ill health. I'm sure she is a great constituency MP, but she's been something of an electoral liability. Corbyn has done really well and has improved immeasurably during the last few weeks, whereas May just trots out the same tired soundbites. Let's hope that, if the Tories do win, she has some decent people at the Brexit strong and stable table, because May herself seems unable to move and flex as is so critical in negotiations, and if she continues to spout as she does, she'll only get more and more barriers put up. 

But put May aside -  LABOUR ARE GOING TO WIN!!! 

Let's hope so!

A bit too much to hope for I guess, but at least it may not be the landslide victory that May & her cronies expected when she so opportunistically called the election. Our consolation will be that May's own stock with the British electorate has been very deservedly significantly reduced.

May, Hammond, Hunt, Rudd, Fox, Davis & Johnson - what a sorry lot! Almost (but not quite) makes one think that Cameron, Osborne & his lot weren't quite so bad after all. But then when I look back, we also had May, Gove & Letwin. How could that have been much better?

Theresa May penned & revelled in the phrase "The Nasty Party". Unfortunately, when the Tories win the election (sorry HH), I suspect that she & her colleagues will almost certainly fully live up to the tag, in respect of the Brexit negotiations, a lurch to the right with the continued running down of the NHS and the State Education systems, and the general distribution of wealth from the poorest to the richest members of our society.

Still, one can dream, at least for one more day.

This thread is just an endlessly boring tittle-tattle of meaningless speculation and gossip. Roll on Friday - hopefully it will die a natural death ....

Keep dreaming ...

And yet you still follow it, and even feel inclined to add your little bit of pre election gloating. No gracious victory posts from you when the result is announced, I guess.

Just remember - a bad loser is bad enough, but no one likes a bad winner.

dayjay posted:

MDS posted:

I think Dave***T's prediction has merit but I would see things playing out a bit differently within the Conservative party.

If such a result comes to pass I think TM's credibility is fatally holed-below-the-waterline because the argument she used to justify her U-turn on calling election will have well and truly unravelled: she will not have secured a better mandate from the electorate for her (hard) Brexit; the opposition will have been emboldened; her negotiating position with the rest of the EU will be weaker. And in addition, some of her new domestic policies like the 'dementia tax' will have re-enforced the label of 'nasty party' that she had pledged to move away from.  I just can't imagine how she will be able to stand outside No10 on Friday morning and disguise how a result with the Tory's majority largely unchanged as anything other than her personal failure, both in terms of calling the election and in how she's performed during the campaign.  Anything less that a significant increase in her majority and, if she doesn't decide to stand down, I think the Conservative party will move to get rid of her.  Remember how efficiently and ruthlessly they moved to get rid of beloved Thatcher?

 

I would imagine that she will say she now has a mandate for her policies from the electorate even if it is a reduced majority and it will be hard to argue with that

Political capital isn't simply about electoral arithmetic. If the Tories get a landslide win her recent failings may be forgotten but I doubt it, as they are obsessed with power and far too cynical to risk her leading a future campaign, which could be much tighter if Labour eventually get their act together.

Clive

dayjay posted:

MDS posted:

I think Dave***T's prediction has merit but I would see things playing out a bit differently within the Conservative party.

If such a result comes to pass I think TM's credibility is fatally holed-below-the-waterline because the argument she used to justify her U-turn on calling election will have well and truly unravelled: she will not have secured a better mandate from the electorate for her (hard) Brexit; the opposition will have been emboldened; her negotiating position with the rest of the EU will be weaker. And in addition, some of her new domestic policies like the 'dementia tax' will have re-enforced the label of 'nasty party' that she had pledged to move away from.  I just can't imagine how she will be able to stand outside No10 on Friday morning and disguise how a result with the Tory's majority largely unchanged as anything other than her personal failure, both in terms of calling the election and in how she's performed during the campaign.  Anything less that a significant increase in her majority and, if she doesn't decide to stand down, I think the Conservative party will move to get rid of her.  Remember how efficiently and ruthlessly they moved to get rid of beloved Thatcher?

 

I would imagine that she will say she now has a mandate for her policies from the electorate even if it is a reduced majority and it will be hard to argue with that

But remember that she called the election specifically because she claimed that Britain needs a 'strong leader' for the Brexit negotiations. This is all about Brexit and nothing else. How can tomorrow's result possibly give her a mandate for some of the policies that she refused to even clarify or quantify in her manifesto?

Of course, this won't stop her from claiming a carte blanche mandate to do what she wants.

Hmack posted:

dayjay posted:

MDS posted:

I think Dave***T's prediction has merit but I would see things playing out a bit differently within the Conservative party.

If such a result comes to pass I think TM's credibility is fatally holed-below-the-waterline because the argument she used to justify her U-turn on calling election will have well and truly unravelled: she will not have secured a better mandate from the electorate for her (hard) Brexit; the opposition will have been emboldened; her negotiating position with the rest of the EU will be weaker. And in addition, some of her new domestic policies like the 'dementia tax' will have re-enforced the label of 'nasty party' that she had pledged to move away from.  I just can't imagine how she will be able to stand outside No10 on Friday morning and disguise how a result with the Tory's majority largely unchanged as anything other than her personal failure, both in terms of calling the election and in how she's performed during the campaign.  Anything less that a significant increase in her majority and, if she doesn't decide to stand down, I think the Conservative party will move to get rid of her.  Remember how efficiently and ruthlessly they moved to get rid of beloved Thatcher?

 

I would imagine that she will say she now has a mandate for her policies from the electorate even if it is a reduced majority and it will be hard to argue with that

But remember that she called the election specifically because she claimed that Britain needs a 'strong leader' for the Brexit negotiations. This is all about Brexit and nothing else. How can tomorrow's result possibly give her a mandate for some of the policies that she refused to even clarify or quantify in her manifesto?

Of course, this won't stop her from claiming a carte blanche mandate to do what she wants.

Or, to put it another way, 'more weasel words from the wicked witch'!

Cdb posted:

Well there's a difference between giving a straight answer and making an assertion without any evidence.

Now we have evidence, it seems that your confidence level is actually at about 33% as far as the politicians go. (Describing Fox as a loose cannon is a bit of an understatement!) I presume by the career professionals you mean the civil servants who would of course be available whatever the election result. It may be worth remembering Sir Ivan Rogers the top UK diplomat to the EU and his resignation letter. This didn't suggest we should have much confidence in May and her team, while he did also point out that the UK lacks diplomatic negotiating experience generally.

Clive 

Please don't read my very short summary of my concerns as that of low (33%) confidence. On balance of what I know/observe wrt to strengths & weaknesses, I'm confident that with the support of the civil servant/diplomatic team members, that we have a capable team.    

Ivan Rogers might be proved right, or maybe wrong, time will tell.   However I believe their was a lot more to his resignation,  obviously a major disagreement, but was his heart really in brexit, a personality clash,  who knows.  Bottom line is its history & we must play the team we have now.

I received a reply from our Conservative candidate today. He was our MP.

says he is determined to ensure that his constituency gets a good deal from the Brexit negotiations and that he will be lobbying Ministers and others to take the interests of local businesses into account. He adds that he expects a good deal will be reached with the EU.

No mention of how he will use his Parliamentary vote at the end of the negotiations if his constituents and local businesses consider the Deal to be inadequate.

This time around, my vote will be going elsewhere.

Hopefully Corbyn becomes PM, there is a generation or two who need to live through such a government.

Sleep tight,

OW

OscillateWildly posted:

Hopefully Corbyn becomes PM, there is a generation or two who need to live through such a government.

Sleep tight,

OW

I fear you are right. Maybe it's something we are just going to have to go through. 

As someone who lived those times I agree the thinking behind OW's post.   Salutary lesson?  no thanks !!!!       But it won't be needed this time anyway,  I see the polls published this evening all show a widening of the con/lab gap,  even YouGov using their new method who have consistently shown lab closer to con than the all pollster average, tonite have them at 42 to 35 with lab -3 since their last poll.

JamieWednesday posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

 

But put May aside -  LABOUR ARE GOING TO WIN!!! 

None of the bookies agree with you but if you're sure, you can get very good odds on Jeremy Corbyn being P.M. at all of them.

Maybe time to "put your money...etc."

Given unexpected results in the last general election, the referendum and the US presidency I'd say anything could happen. Voters worldwide seem to have turned into a very fickle and funny lot paying a lot of attention to a single element of a manifesto and not properly considering the full picture. If that's a permanent change in approach then why can't Labour ( the extra holidays party!) win? 

Mike-B posted:

As someone who lived those times I agree the thinking behind OW's post.   Salutary lesson?  no thanks !!!!       But it won't be needed this time anyway,  I see the polls published this evening all show a widening of the con/lab gap,  even YouGov using their new method who have consistently shown lab closer to con than the all pollster average, tonite have them at 42 to 35 with lab -3 since their last poll.

Quite noticeable that very little reference to polls being made this time around by the newscasters and pundits after the debacle of 2015! 

JamieWednesday posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

 But put May aside -  LABOUR ARE GOING TO WIN!!! 

None of the bookies agree with you but if you're sure, you can get very good odds on Jeremy Corbyn being P.M. at all of them.

Maybe time to "put your money...etc."

Ladbrooks are confident enough that Greens *aren't* going to win ... they (claim to have) taken a £1000 bet on Greens  having most seats at 1000/1 ... forgoing their usual £15 political bet limit and £250,000 maximum payout.

So generous of them.

And so much for promoting responsible betting!

Interesting that the Fox News channel has been taken off the air in the UK today due to election reporting restrictions.

Fox News appears to be the only news channel (foreign or otherwise) that is off the air. I guess this says quite a bit about the 'fair & balanced' channel!

Mike-B posted:

As someone who lived those times I agree the thinking behind OW's post.   Salutary lesson?  no thanks !!!!       But it won't be needed this time anyway,  I see the polls published this evening all show a widening of the con/lab gap,  even YouGov using their new method who have consistently shown lab closer to con than the all pollster average, tonite have them at 42 to 35 with lab -3 since their last poll.

I seem to recal that at this stage in 2015, the Con/Lab points difference was also seven. Gave them an overall majority of c.10 seats.

Perhaps they will pick up 2 or possibly 3 seats in Scotland, but loose 2 or 3 to Labour elswhere. The other parties might account for similar seats to last time in aggregate but with a different internal distribution.

Difficult to predict an outcome at the best of times, nevermind in these uncertain times.

Nice to know that HH is putting his entire "Golden Pension" on Corbyn. shows real courage !

Mike-B posted:

As someone who lived those times I agree the thinking behind OW's post.   Salutary lesson?  no thanks !!!!       But it won't be needed this time anyway,  I see the polls published this evening all show a widening of the con/lab gap,  even YouGov using their new method who have consistently shown lab closer to con than the all pollster average, tonite have them at 42 to 35 with lab -3 since their last poll.

Not sure what times you or OW are referring to - perhaps the time of radical change, greater equality and hope of the Attlee government? 

Clive