Labour ?

I probably shouldn't be engaging in premature evaluation on the basis of the 3 results, all in safe seats, but I couldn't help noticing the swing to the Conservatives in Sunderland (which voted in favour of leaving the EU) but the swing to Labour in Newcastle Upon Tyne (which voted against leaving the EU). Cause, correlation, or coincidence?

Paul Davies posted:

Cause, correlation, or coincidence?

Yes...

Don Atkinson posted:

JamieWednesday posted:

I noticed on the scrolling line on BBC that the exit poll was on about 34,000 people. With 650 seats, that averages about 53 people per seat, spread around several polling stations each time. I hear it's all very scientifically worked out beforehand but it does seem open to errors!

= educated guess ?

Not quite. With carefully selected representative samples, the error bands tighten quickly as sample size increases. They can't guarantee they're right but they accurately give you the odds. Sampling theory is a well-developed aspect of statistics.

Whatever happens, May is now toast. As are UKIP, whose vote seems to be collapsing everywhere.

I am in Scotland at the mo (Perth), and I am quite shocked at just how despised the SNP are - they all seem to be Lab or Toryup here at the moment.

Hmack posted:

Kevin-W posted:

Whatever happens, May is now toast. As are UKIP, whose vote seems to be collapsing everywhere.

I am in Scotland at the mo (Perth), and I am quite shocked at just how despised the SNP are - they all seem to be Lab or Toryup here at the moment.

And yet they are likely to remain the largest party in Scotland! Hardly an indication of widespread dislike.

I suspect that many 'remainers' in the context of the Scottish Independence debate will come to regret voting for the Tories (possibly tactically) & potentially saving them nationally.  

Will Tory MPs from Scotland decline to vote on matters such as the NHS and benefits which only affect England though?

Eloise posted:

Hmack posted:

Kevin-W posted:

Whatever happens, May is now toast. As are UKIP, whose vote seems to be collapsing everywhere.

I am in Scotland at the mo (Perth), and I am quite shocked at just how despised the SNP are - they all seem to be Lab or Toryup here at the moment.

And yet they are likely to remain the largest party in Scotland! Hardly an indication of widespread dislike.

I suspect that many 'remainers' in the context of the Scottish Independence debate will come to regret voting for the Tories (possibly tactically) & potentially saving them nationally.  

Will Tory MPs from Scotland decline to vote on matters such as the NHS and benefits which only affect England though?

I'm really not sure about that. The SNP MPs would certainly be heavily criticised were they to vote on matters which only affect England, but I suspect the same criticism won't be levied against the Scottish Tory MPs if they decide to prop up the Tories policies (assuming they are able to form a coalition Government as is now being predicted).   

It was inevitable that the SNP would suffer a fairly large number of seats in Scotland. Their success at the last election was a 'perfect storm' for them, and there was no way it was going to be repeated. What is surprising, however, is the success that the Tories appear to be having in Scotland. I suspect that many people in Scotland just didn't buy into the Corbyn revival, and delivered a 'Unionist' vote by voting tactically for the Tories. If their votes end up saving the Tories nationally, I suspect that many of them will be very ashamed of what they have done.

A very, very strange night all round.  

One aside. I was very disappointed to see that Angus Robertson, who in my opinion is one of Britain's most capable politicians lost his seat. He is someone I admire greatly, even though he represents a party which did not get my vote yesterday.

Here's the latest...

Hmack posted:

One aside. I was very disappointed to see that Angus Robertson, who in my opinion is one of Britain's most capable politicians lost his seat. He is someone I admire greatly, even though he represents a party which did not get my vote yesterday.

I'd echo that, I thought he was particularly dignified in the leaders' debate.

I'd echo the strange night but even more though, thus far!

May's speech acknowledging the likelihood of a hung parliament. Gosh.

if labour had a better big 3 at the top we would have had a labour government, its only delayed it for a year.  tories have always been arrogant and me me me

Vote Labour get............DUP?

Willy. 

OK. let me get this straight.

I'm clear who has lost. The English Tories, UKIP, Nick Clegg, and the SNP (goodbye Scottish Independence again).

I'm less clear who has won. Corbyn is only just above Gordon Brown in 2010. Winners appear to be the BBC Exit Poll (did we really believe them at 10pm), Scottish Labour and Scottish Tories, and the DUP.

 Maybe gloriously messy democracy is the winner. All expectations and predictions totally blown away. Memo to all politicians; never take the electorate for granted.

MAYHEM! (Sorry, nicked that from The Sun).

Bruce

Strong and stable, my arse. May has shown herself up for what she is - someone who lacks judgement and who has an overinflated idea of her own importance and ability. She misjudged the budget, the manifesto and now the whole election. 

A great night for Labour, and something of a vindication for Jeremy. Interesting times ahead. 

Yet Lab

Hungryhalibut posted:

Strong and stable, my arse. May has shown herself up for what she is - someone who lacks judgement and who has an overinflated idea of her own importance and ability. She misjudged the budget, the manifesto and now the whole election. 

A great night for Labour, and something of a vindication for Jeremy. Interesting times ahead. 

Yet labour still a long way from power after 7 yrs in opposition.

Bruce

Don Atkinson posted:

Hmack posted:

ynwa250505 posted:

Debate? DEBATE??? .... you call a lot of entrenched toing and froing of invective a debate .... all sensible insight/comment disappeared long long ago ...

Roll on Friday ....

yawn250505,

You have just very adequately described the vast majority of your own posts - invective, and absolutely nothing in the form of an educated debate.

There are others on the right wing of the Tory side who (although it pains me to admit it) do engage in meaningful debate. You are not one of them.

Perhaps your forum name gives away your inclination to find anything that contains more than one or two syllables "so boring and pointless ..." .

 

I have to admit to reading "yawn's" avatar as yawn, simply because that's the effect his posts have on me when I can be bothered to read them.

Even the "miracle of Instanbul" would be hard pushed to outdo "yawn's" transformation were he to engage meaningfully even in just one single post !

Istanbul .... aahhh what a night that was ... better than Rome (both times) even ... look for my BBC interview 0 it was awesome (even if I say so myself) ... and I won the penalty competition

You should read back through my posts - I know you could find a "single post" lol ....

Hmack posted:

ynwa250505 posted:

Debate? DEBATE??? .... you call a lot of entrenched toing and froing of invective a debate .... all sensible insight/comment disappeared long long ago ...

Roll on Friday ....

yawn250505,

You have just very adequately described the vast majority of your own posts - invective, and absolutely nothing in the form of an educated debate.

There are others on the right wing of the Tory side who (although it pains me to admit it) do engage in meaningful debate. You are not one of them.

Perhaps your forum name gives away your inclination to find anything that contains more than one or two syllables "so boring and pointless ..." .

 

point out the invective ...

Dumb folk. You dont undermine your leader before an important battle

Theresa May's campaign manager attempting to leave the building anonymously?

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

Theresa May's campaign manager attempting to leave the building anonymously?

At least they all look very happy !!!!

So ... almost inevitably the result is Conservative - DUP coalition.  Even without taking Sinn Fein seats out the equation, that would give them a majority of 1 (assuming the last few declarations go the almost inevitable direction).  Such a coalition would demand a "soft" UK - Ireland border which will inevitably affect what happens with EU.

Can Theresa May survive?  She says she has no intention of resigning ... but for how long?

Brexit negotiations are supposed to start next week ... will there be a big change of direction?  Will the small majority cause people like Ken Clarke to rally around (likely) or will the pro-EU Conservatives be willing to vote against their party.

What next for Labour ... will the hard hitters eat humble pie and be willing to serve on the front bench under Corbyn?

Just commented on BBC ... the leader of the DUP has been on Ulster Radio questioning if TM can stay.

Remaining seats are predicted to go to the conservatives giving them 319 (predicted) seats. With the DUP on board that's 329, a majority of 8. SF will not take their seats so that then goes up to 15.

The DUP will be partying hard tonight. There'll be tea. There'll be biscuits (plain ones). There'll be prayers. There'll be hymns. 

Willy.

We are all stood underneath a real shower of s**t with no umbrella this morning.

Hmack posted:

Eloise posted:

Hmack posted:

Kevin-W posted:

Whatever happens, May is now toast. As are UKIP, whose vote seems to be collapsing everywhere.

I am in Scotland at the mo (Perth), and I am quite shocked at just how despised the SNP are - they all seem to be Lab or Toryup here at the moment.

And yet they are likely to remain the largest party in Scotland! Hardly an indication of widespread dislike.

I suspect that many 'remainers' in the context of the Scottish Independence debate will come to regret voting for the Tories (possibly tactically) & potentially saving them nationally.  

Will Tory MPs from Scotland decline to vote on matters such as the NHS and benefits which only affect England though?

I'm really not sure about that. The SNP MPs would certainly be heavily criticised were they to vote on matters which only affect England, but I suspect the same criticism won't be levied against the Scottish Tory MPs if they decide to prop up the Tories policies (assuming they are able to form a coalition Government as is now being predicted).   

It was inevitable that the SNP would suffer a fairly large number of seats in Scotland. Their success at the last election was a 'perfect storm' for them, and there was no way it was going to be repeated. What is surprising, however, is the success that the Tories appear to be having in Scotland. I suspect that many people in Scotland just didn't buy into the Corbyn revival, and delivered a 'Unionist' vote by voting tactically for the Tories. If their votes end up saving the Tories nationally, I suspect that many of them will be very ashamed of what they have done.

A very, very strange night all round.  

One aside. I was very disappointed to see that Angus Robertson, who in my opinion is one of Britain's most capable politicians lost his seat. He is someone I admire greatly, even though he represents a party which did not get my vote yesterday.

Agreed.

I was also disappointed to see Nick Clegg loose his seat.

Clegg got his just deserts for reneging on tuition fees and getting into bed with the highest bidder. 

So how about this for an idea (likely unworkable I admit). A cross party EU negotiation / agreement. Aim for a softer Brexit: negotiating some free movement in exchange for good access to single market and customs union. In addition stay members of organisations such as nuclear power regulation and air travel. 

It would anger the hard line Conservative Brexiters; but could be supported by the moderate Remainers from other parties and would present a "Strong and Stable" negotiating position to the EU.