Labour ?

Corbyn did not run a great campaign. Someone though recognised early on how awful TMs was and how awful she is and they just let her get on with digging her holes such that the Tories lost some early support. Then because the job of opposition is to oppose, he could say any old shit and get away with it. Wanna free house, with free health care and huge welfare and pensions you don't have to pay for, and the joy of living in hope rather than reality, then vote for meee.

Good analysis Jamie.   Corbyn certainly has an appeal but still didn't win. 

Here's a couple of interesting "statistics"... lots of "ifs" here of course.

Theresa May needed 287 votes (in the correct seats of course) to have a majority (ignoring the Sinn Fein seats and the speaker) without needing DUP support.

Corbyn needed 2,227 more votes (again in the correct seats) to have been able to be the leader in a "rainbow" coalition (Labour plus the other parties excluding DUP and ignoring Sinn Fein seats and speaker). The Corbyn figure also was prior to Kensington result and if LD had got the 45 votes needed to retain their seat against Zac Goldsmith that would have reduced those votes needed.

The closest seat however must be Fife North East ... SNP held with 2 votes more than the LD candidate.

Paper Plane posted

Also good to see the UKIP Little Englander onanists going down the toilet where they belong.

 

From the graphics I saw (constituency by constituency) the majority of their losses were switching to Labour. People don't disappear quite that easily unless you are a cannibal.

The Strat (Fender) posted:

Corbyn certainly has an appeal but still didn't win. 

With regards to Corbyns popularity, from what I can tell, traditional labour supporters, young and old, me included thought he was an incompetent idiot. However, young people who usually take no interest in politics think he’s brilliant. Not because he’s offering freebees, (I think the under 30s today are far more altruistic than 20 years ago), because they simply like him.

 Corbyn didn’t win, but he was successful. Turning an anticipated Tory 100+ majority into a hung parliament, can’t be seen as anything else.

JamieWednesday posted:

Corbyn did not run a great campaign. Someone though recognised early on how awful TMs was and how awful she is and they just let her get on with digging her holes such that the Tories lost some early support. Then because the job of opposition is to oppose, he could say any old shit and get away with it. Wanna free house, with free health care and huge welfare and pensions you don't have to pay for, and the joy of living in hope rather than reality, then vote for meee.

Hmm.

You say he DIDN’T run a great campaign. Then go onto describe a great campaign.

wenger2015 posted:

I am of no political persuasion, i am very distrusting of politicians in general and promises they make and break.

But in my humble opinion, the country needs an effective opposition party?

But in my memory, i can not recall a time when the Labour party has been in such a decline. 

Does Mr Corbyn actually know what he is doing and what is best for his party?

Does he still have the support of long term labour members?

Will the labour party ever again become an effective opposition, let alone lead the country again?

With some crucial by elections coming up, it will be interesting to see what happens?

Any thoughts?

And what do you think now?

When Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader I said (don't think it was here but another forum) that I thought it a good thing in that he was true to Labour's roots - redistribution of wealth, Clause 4 etc.  In effect it nailed the facade that was New Labour.  Not my politics at all but true to the socialist cause.  But here's the irony until relatively recently he has been vehemently against U.K. membership of the EU and indeed during the referendum he was seen as pretty lacklustre.  Now, and I admire him for this, he has mobilised millions of young people to vote the vast majority of whom will be passionate remainders  - as am I.  

Interesting times!

I went to see the comedian Henning Wehn yesterday evening. I thought he summed up the new government very well describing it as the Conservative party propped up by Glasgow Rangers. 

More seriously, it now even harder to see the problems in Stormont being resolved any time soon, given the leverage the DUP now have.  

I voted for alternatives to Corbyn in both leadership elections and thought he was something of an electoral liability. But in the election I thought he did brilliantly. He inspired people by giving a vision of hope for the future and a better Britain, focusing on our public services, which affect people more than anything else. He focused on his vision rather than slagging off the opposition. May, on the other hand, provided no vision other than more of the same, showed no passion and showed herself up to be the wooden characterless performer that she is. I suppose I would be considered an old Party member but I am now very happy with his performance. The fact that he enthused younger people is fantastic. They have 50 or 60 years to live in the country and have so much more to win or lose. 

The great thing about a hung parliament is that it only takes a small Tory rebellion to stop some of May's more extreme ideas - and who is going to be afraid of such a weakened leader, who has been sorely exposed as lacking in political judgement. On Brexit, I wouldn't be surprised if we do end up with a second referendum, and even if we don't I think we'll end up in a far better place that we would otherwise have done. Let's hope that May's hubris has led to a better outcome for all of us. 

The big fear / disappointment is that Theresa May has a "business as usual" attitude, not seeming to accept any responsibility or accepting that perhaps the people think her approach must change.

A lot of the Tory party are rallying around her, pinning the blame on (albeit highly placed / paid) "functionaries".  A typical blame game situation.

Will the government last ... the big fear is it will!

That's the trouble with being a robot; the reprogramming hasn't been done. 

Hungryhalibut posted:

That's the trouble with being a robot; the reprogramming hasn't been done. 

As a robot myself ... I find that comment bigoted and disrespectful!

On the other hand maybe Scott Adams has been following UK politics...

OMG, a Gordon Brown moment.

Eloise posted:

The big fear / disappointment is that Theresa May has a "business as usual" attitude, not seeming to accept any responsibility or accepting that perhaps the people think her approach must change.

A lot of the Tory party are rallying around her, pinning the blame on (albeit highly placed / paid) "functionaries".  A typical blame game situation.

Will the government last ... the big fear is it will!

If that's really what she thinks, it would shows a continuing weakness, and such an approach simply won't work anyway. However, TM is an intelligent lady of some experience and I suspect (and hope) that what we are seeing is the only face she knows how to display while she does some hard thinking in private and with a few trustees before we see a new approach.  If not the new Conservative government won't last long. It could be killed from within, not just by the strengthened opposition.   

Hungryhalibut posted:

I voted for alternatives to Corbyn in both leadership elections and thought he was something of an electoral liability. But in the election I thought he did brilliantly. He inspired people by giving a vision of hope for the future and a better Britain, focusing on our public services, which affect people more than anything else. He focused on his vision rather than slagging off the opposition. May, on the other hand, provided no vision other than more of the same, showed no passion and showed herself up to be the wooden characterless performer that she is. I suppose I would be considered an old Party member but I am now very happy with his performance. The fact that he enthused younger people is fantastic. They have 50 or 60 years to live in the country and have so much more to win or lose. 

 

I've been especially pleased to see the two things I've highlighted. I suspect I'm far from being alone in being fed up with the continual mud-slinging and character assassination from our politicians, which just masks the substance that we should be more interested in. It must be very, very hard to resist retaliating in kind when under attack of this kind, and the Conservatives have much of the Press on its side to re-enforce the insults, so I think Corbyn showed great restraint.  I suspect many people warmed to him for that characterise alone.

And getting the young voter interested and active - that's a good thing regardless of political allegiance.

MDS posted:

Eloise posted:

The big fear / disappointment is that Theresa May has a "business as usual" attitude, not seeming to accept any responsibility or accepting that perhaps the people think her approach must change.

A lot of the Tory party are rallying around her, pinning the blame on (albeit highly placed / paid) "functionaries".  A typical blame game situation.

Will the government last ... the big fear is it will!

If that's really what she thinks, it would shows a continuing weakness, and such an approach simply won't work anyway. However, TM is an intelligent lady of some experience and I suspect (and hope) that what we are seeing is the only face she knows how to display while she does some hard thinking in private and with a few trustees before we see a new approach.  If not the new Conservative government won't last long. It could be killed from within, not just by the strengthened opposition.   

From what I'm reading, the problem is she is still relying on a small number of people ... if she can get away from those and replace them with people who will give advise however unpalatable and she is willing to accept that advise, then there is hope.  The problem is that as far as I can see in the past she has surrounded herself with "Yes Men" (and women) where - like all good leaders - she needs people to challenge her thinking.

Pretty stunning result in Kensington going to Labour. Margin only 20 votes but it must be a stunning blow to the Conservatives to lose to Labour such a traditionally 'blue' seat 

MDS posted:

Pretty stunning result in Kensington going to Labour. Margin only 20 votes but it must be a stunning blow to the Conservatives to lose to Labour such a traditionally 'blue' seat 

Pretty stunning too for that loud Jock, Gordon Ramsay.

Registered to vote in Kensington, he advocated, pre election, that it was a waste of time voting, as the result would be a foregone conclusion ................. guess he won't be invited to provide catering, chez Teresa, anytime soon!  

If Jeremy Corbyn in future stands on a Remain ticket it will show him to be ultimate cynical politician.  He voted leave in 75, voted against Mastricht, Lisbon and the Single European Act.  His first pro EU declaration was in Jun 16.   

MDS posted:

Pretty stunning result in Kensington going to Labour. Margin only 20 votes but it must be a stunning blow to the Conservatives to lose to Labour such a traditionally 'blue' seat 

It may be I'm paying more attention ... but have more close seats than I ever remember. 7 constituencies (I think) were won by less than 50 votes.

dave marshall posted:

MDS posted:

Pretty stunning result in Kensington going to Labour. Margin only 20 votes but it must be a stunning blow to the Conservatives to lose to Labour such a traditionally 'blue' seat 

Pretty stunning too for that loud Jock, Gordon Ramsay.

Registered to vote in Kensington, he advocated, pre election, that it was a waste of time voting, as the result would be a foregone conclusion ................. guess he won't be invited to provide catering, chez Teresa, anytime soon!  

I guess not all rich people were planning to leave the country if Labour won!

Eloise posted:

MDS posted:

Eloise posted:

The big fear / disappointment is that Theresa May has a "business as usual" attitude, not seeming to accept any responsibility or accepting that perhaps the people think her approach must change.

A lot of the Tory party are rallying around her, pinning the blame on (albeit highly placed / paid) "functionaries".  A typical blame game situation.

Will the government last ... the big fear is it will!

If that's really what she thinks, it would shows a continuing weakness, and such an approach simply won't work anyway. However, TM is an intelligent lady of some experience and I suspect (and hope) that what we are seeing is the only face she knows how to display while she does some hard thinking in private and with a few trustees before we see a new approach.  If not the new Conservative government won't last long. It could be killed from within, not just by the strengthened opposition.   

From what I'm reading, the problem is she is still relying on a small number of people ... if she can get away from those and replace them with people who will give advise however unpalatable and she is willing to accept that advise, then there is hope.  The problem is that as far as I can see in the past she has surrounded herself with "Yes Men" (and women) where - like all good leaders - she needs people to challenge her thinking.

And her two key advisers, who were with her during her days as Home Secretary, have just resigned.  Probably not voluntarily.  Anyway, I think that's a very significant sign of acceptance that things need to change going forward.  

In reply to MDS above...

Is the resignations a sign she is acknowledging a problem; or simply reacting to threats from within her party and an attempt to cling to power?

I suspect more the latter, Eloise, but we'll see.