Labour ?

Time for this thread to be closed methinks. Election's over, most of the more recent comments would be better placed in a Brexit thread?

I am not the sure the impact and consequences  are over,  we don't even have a new government yet .. agree some comment should be in Brexit thread..but two are intrinsically linked.. I suspect over the next 12 months that will be much to add to this thread... very interesting times... well they are if you enjoy politics

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

I am not the sure the impact and consequences  are over,  we don't even have a new government yet .. agree some comment should be in Brexit thread..but two are intrinsically linked.. I suspect over the next 12 months that will be much to add to this thread... very interesting times... well they are if you enjoy politics

Yes, I agree, the two are linked, and of course if Mrs May is able to strike a responsible deal with the DUP, it's then straight on to brexit negotiations whilst suffering from an extremely sore backside..... and to start any negotiations from such an embarrassing position will certainly test her metal, 'very interesting times'

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

Thats the fastest U-Turn I've ever seen.

Say it's time to close this thread. Then post on it 37 minutes later........

In the 70’s and 80’s we used to hear from the tories, constantly, don’t vote labour, all they’ll do is print money. We don’t hear this tory mantra anymore.

How to the Tories and labour compare when it comes to “printing money”, apart from the fact the Tories are now printing plastic money.

As a tory voter I can only say I'z not a happy bunny,  however life goes on.  Some thoughts:  nothing is more ruthless than the tory party at getting the knives out.   May is holed below the water line & I don't see any pump(s) big enough to keep her afloat.   She needs to radically change her style & show some real leadership & with new & far better joined up thinking on policies & objectives & quickly.     

Getting in cahoots with DUP is like having a rattlesnake in your pocket,  & one of the conditions if this deal goes ahead has to be to detach NI issues & politics, but political maneuvering in NI is a bit tricky,  SF especially & the other party's will pose more challenges than enough & might prove to be a road block to the all important issue of getting Stormont back in action.  DUP however might be a useful player in the brexit talks on Ireland & the border question.  

Boris not running a leadership campaign,  oh yeah ?? really ???    I wouldn't be surprised to see something on that a lot sooner than most are forecasting.    

Mike-B posted:

Boris not running a leadership campaign,  oh yeah ?? really ???    I wouldn't be surprised to see something on that a lot sooner than most are forecasting.    

Boris has been running a leadership campaign since before he became London Mayor.  What he means is he hasn't yet decided if time is right for his campaign to come to fruition ... he will need to be pretty confident to actually launch a campaign.

For all his bluster, Boris is VERY clever.

Mike-B posted:

She needs to radically change her style & show some real leadership & with new & far better joined up thinking on policies & objectives & quickly.     

Plus, needs to change her name to Jera May and stop shaving.

Eloise posted:

For all his bluster, Boris is VERY clever.

100% agree on that;  he was my MP a few years ago & I met him at meetings on a local project.  His bluster image seems to be for the media as he does not carry that into meetings.  OK he talks too much & will talk the hind leg off a donkey to win his point.  What I know of him I can imagine he would lead an election campaign much along the lines we saw with JC,  up front, open & old fashioned soapbox style rallies.    I don't see him winning back many labour swing voters though,  his larger than life bluster image & the Bullingdon Club is baggage he doesn't need.

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

I agree - I suspect she will be out by October

Mike-B posted:

Eloise posted:

For all his bluster, Boris is VERY clever.

100% agree on that;  he was my MP a few years ago & I met him at meetings on a local project.  His bluster image seems to be for the media as he does not carry that into meetings.  OK he talks too much & will talk the hind leg off a donkey to win his point.  What I know of him I can imagine he would lead an election campaign much along the lines we saw with JC,  up front, open & old fashioned soapbox style rallies.    I don't see him winning back many labour swing voters though,  his larger than life bluster image & the Bullingdon Club is baggage he doesn't need.

Totally agree with both of you - he does have baggage - but he also has well tuned political antennae - which after all is why perhaps many consider his reign as Mayor of London a reasonably successful one - and I think its fair to say he largely appealed across political boundaries in that role.

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

Yes, according to today's press Corbyn is ready for this scenario

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

I agree - I suspect she will be out by October

I'm not so sure, it would depend on ongoing brexit negotiations, their is no desire for a leadership challenge until at least the initial stages of discussions start to appear successful or not.....and that as we know takes a considerable amount of time

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Interesting about the radio comment on Greece .. yes I agree we sometimes need to open our eyes beyond our own borders to see how relatively well or poorly positioned we are to many... and for those that are in a worse position than us, look at why...and what predominately caused it.. 

I still think the UK has a post colonial feel to its spending, and in truth I feel that has been one of big challenges since 1944... many feel it can spend and be supported by others.. the truth is we don't have any more an empire to exploit or benavent partner to prop us up.. we have to borrow on the global market.. and if they loose confidence in our prudence  the cost of that borrowing will sky rocket and then we will start to feel real austerity... and I just prey that day doesn't happen as that will mean real hardship to vast swathes of the population.. impacting massively those most reliant on the state.. and that will polarise Britain between the haves and have nots, and despite Corbyn's well meaning intent I suspect the outcome will be the complete opposite... we are not in our own ideological little bubble.

If we hadn't voted for Brexit, NONE of these problems would exist ! Simples

Do you think so... I am not so sure and it's far from simple........ the EU project itself has perhaps masked some of these systemic issues we have with our own crippling debt. Remember we were in the EU when we just about bankrupt as a country when labour last left office which we still appear to be trying to recover from all these years later.. and of course Greece is in the EU and Euro zone and has had austerity imposed on it by foreign powers.

I think the UK must put its own house in order and get its debt and finance structure in control by pulling it own levers.. and then I hope despite formally leaving the EU we can  still be part of the common market in some form which is of course what we originally voted into... not the EU federal project.

Just like in the U.K. where we are disproportionately reliant on a tiny part of the population for tax revenue, I think the EU is disproportionately reliant on Germany... both are unstable ... I think the EU is in for a bumpy ride in its current form (as is the UK).. probably better we parallel track it for the time being... it's a symbiotic relationship, both  benefit from each other to a certain extent. Once both are reformed and repaired we may rejoin our union in many years to come.. but I think we need space apart to repair the damage we each internally have.

In wonder if there any facts on why a government with little opposition and pursuing a blatent austerity policy for 7 years has made no diferrnce to national debt!

At lease we now know why the Tory Government need a strong stable for the Grand National interest

One thing for sure, the hard as nails Tory/UKIP BREXIT plans are a dead turd in the water now.

The only decent democratic thing left to do now is to give the UK peoples a re-vote on EU membership, ...and when the Remain side win; the whole bullshitting Brexit fiasco can be shit-kicked into touch and we can regain our liberty and proceed to rebuild our relationships as progressive Europeans.

Debs

fatcat posted:

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

Thats the fastest U-Turn I've ever seen.

Say it's time to close this thread. Then post on it 37 minutes later........

Spot on - love your incisive political commentary!!

Timmo1341 posted:

fatcat posted:

Timmo1341 posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

With the Maybot getting into bed with anti abortion, anti LGBT rights climate change deniers, and a resurgent Labour Party about to put forward an alternative Queen's Speech, things are certainly not going to be quiet. I'd give 50/50 on May not being PM by Christmas. 

I'd go further - May out by October, election end 2017 or early 2018. Not saying it's what I would wish for, simply my reading of the current political climate.

Thats the fastest U-Turn I've ever seen.

Say it's time to close this thread. Then post on it 37 minutes later........

Spot on - love your incisive political commentary!!

Thank you.

I’m not actually a big fan of commentators, political, football, etc. On the whole they talk a load of bullshit.

Commentators are for those, too stupid to know what’s actually going on. The ignorant.

Eloise posted:

Mike-B posted:

Boris not running a leadership campaign,  oh yeah ?? really ???    I wouldn't be surprised to see something on that a lot sooner than most are forecasting.    

Boris has been running a leadership campaign since before he became London Mayor.  What he means is he hasn't yet decided if time is right for his campaign to come to fruition ... he will need to be pretty confident to actually launch a campaign.

For all his bluster, Boris is VERY clever.

I know quite a lot about Boris, for reasons too tedious to go into here. He is certainly clever, rather ruthless and enormously ambitious.

But he has several personality flaws that would prevent him becoming an effective Tory leader or PM. The first is his tendency to overestimate his abilities. The second is his capriciousness and terrible temper (he is, underneath the bluster, very thin-skinned). The third is his desperate need to be liked (which is why he has always played the affable, Ovid-quoting buffoon).

Despite his ambition, cunning and ruthlessness, he lacks a real spine and does not have the stomach for a fight. On the whole he has been given a relatively easy time by the party, the media and public, but, thrust into a position of leadership, having to make tough decision, he will wobble like a big raspberry-faced jelly, and then collapse. Like May, he actually believes in very little, except his own hype.

In case anyone hasn't seen it, this car-crash interview with the brilliant Eddie Mair in 2013 demonstrates what a feeble obfuscator he is, and actually underneath that 'loveable' exterior there lurks a coward, a bully and in Mair's words, 'a nasty piece of work'. The real fun starts seven minutes in.

Also, among the iuncreasingly influential under 30/millennial voting bloc (which the Tories must court, because Corbyn's Labour are hoovering them up at the moment) he is despised as an entitled product of privilege. An energised and more united Labour front bench could make mincemeat of such a wooly, obfuscating oaf in the bearpit that is the Commons.

Significantly, the Conservative Party (the most effective and ruthless political party in the developed world, remember) knows this, and will not allow him to move to the front, unless it is to hang himself so that he can be permanantly eliminated as a pretender to the throne.

My money would be on May stumbling on as a zombie PM until the autumn (maybe sooner than that even), when she is replaced by a dull but safe pair of hands, like Hammond. But there might even be another GE within a year - so who knows anything? I think all of us are aware of the folly of making predictions these days.

Long term, I could see Osborne, snake that he is, weedling his way back in, but if the Tories have any sense, they will nurture and promote the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson (I saw her speak in Scotland yesterday) who basically saved May's butt by helping the Tories  achieve their best result north of the border in years.

Kevin-W posted:

Long term, I could see Osborne, snake that he is, weedling his way back in, but if the Tories have any sense, they will nurture and promote the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson (I saw her speak in Scotland yesterday) who basically saved May's butt by helping the Tories  achieve their best result north of the border in years.

No - Osborne has had this day thank goodness - but Ruth Davidson - fantastic from what I have seen and heard.. and has skillfully pulled much of the rug away from under Nicola Sturgeon's feet

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

Kevin-W posted:

Eloise posted:

Mike-B posted:

Boris not running a leadership campaign,  oh yeah ?? really ???    I wouldn't be surprised to see something on that a lot sooner than most are forecasting.    

Boris has been running a leadership campaign since before he became London Mayor.  What he means is he hasn't yet decided if time is right for his campaign to come to fruition ... he will need to be pretty confident to actually launch a campaign.

For all his bluster, Boris is VERY clever.

I know quite a lot about Boris, for reasons too tedious to go into here. He is certainly clever, rather ruthless and enormously ambitious.

But he has several personality flaws that would prevent him becoming an effective Tory leader or PM. The first is his tendency to overestimate his abilities. The second is his capriciousness and terrible temper (he is, underneath the bluster, very thin-skinned). The third is his desperate need to be liked (which is why he has always played the affable, Ovid-quoting buffoon).

Despite his ambition, cunning and ruthlessness, he lacks a real spine and does not have the stomach for a fight. On the whole he has been given a relatively easy time by the party, the media and public, but, thrust into a position of leadership, having to make tough decision, he will wobble like a big raspberry-faced jelly, and then collapse. Like May, he actually believes in very little, except his own hype.

In case anyone hasn't seen it, this car-crash interview with the brilliant Eddie Mair in 2013 demonstrates what a feeble obfuscator he is, and actually underneath that 'loveable' exterior there lurks a coward, a bully and in Mair's words, 'a nasty piece of work'. The real fun starts seven minutes in.

Also, among the iuncreasingly influential under 30/millennial voting bloc (which the Tories must court, because Corbyn's Labour are hoovering them up at the moment) he is despised as an entitled product of privilege. An energised and more united Labour front bench could make mincemeat of such a wooly, obfuscating oaf in the bearpit that is the Commons.

Significantly, the Conservative Party (the most effective and ruthless political party in the developed world, remember) knows this, and will not allow him to move to the front, unless it is to hang himself so that he can be permanantly eliminated as a pretender to the throne.

My money would be on May stumbling on as a zombie PM until the autumn (maybe sooner than that even), when she is replaced by a dull but safe pair of hands, like Hammond. But there might even be another GE within a year - so who knows anything? I think all of us are aware of the folly of making predictions these days.

Long term, I could see Osborne, snake that he is, weedling his way back in, but if the Tories have any sense, they will nurture and promote the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson (I saw her speak in Scotland yesterday) who basically saved May's butt by helping the Tories  achieve their best result north of the border in years.

Kevin - I hadn't seen that interview before - superb - I think Mair and Johnson were a good match - and the body language from Johnson (as well as from Mair's facial expressions when you saw them) were candidly telling and revealing.

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He is ultra skillful and talks a lot of sense sometimes - and no doubting his conviction on his 'Northern Powerhouse' initiative  - but not much use if you can't carry people along with you - perhaps the difference between a politician and an advisor

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...