Labour ?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He is ultra skillful and talks a lot of sense sometimes - and no doubting his conviction on his 'Northern Powerhouse' initiative  - but not much use if you can't carry people along with you - perhaps the difference between a politician and an advisor

To be honest, I think the phrase Northern Powerhouse initiative was a result of a typo. From where I’m sitting I’d say he was actively promoting the Northern Workhouse initiative.

Eloise posted:

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...

Maybe its the pay packet.   Six jobs is it ??  the ES salary has not been disclosed     but whatever it is he's reputed as declaring not far off £1million for speaking fee's,  £650,000 a year from BlackRock & £120,000 as a fellow at the McCain Institute.

Eloise posted:

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...

Because it allows him a platform from which he can undermine his enemies in preparation for his return as the Tory Party's white knight. He has no skill as a journalist, writer or editor and is essentially a placeman for the Lebedevs, who seek to use one of the UK's biggest-selling (well, it's free these days) newspapers to further their ambitions as movers and shakers in London society. 

According to people I know who work at the Standard, he hasn't the foggiest idea what he's doing and leaves most of the work to his section editors, his dep ed and the chief subs.

Kevin-W posted:

Eloise posted:

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...

 

According to people I know who work at the Standard, he hasn't the foggiest idea what he's doing

No change there then.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Kevin-W posted:

Long term, I could see Osborne, snake that he is, weedling his way back in, but if the Tories have any sense, they will nurture and promote the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson (I saw her speak in Scotland yesterday) who basically saved May's butt by helping the Tories  achieve their best result north of the border in years.

No - Osborne has had this day thank goodness - but Ruth Davidson - fantastic from what I have seen and heard.. and has skillfully pulled much of the rug away from under Nicola Sturgeon's feet

 

Capable though Ruth Davidson is, I think you are perhaps overegging her achievements in Scotland. The problem for the SNP in Scotland was two-fold. Firstly, there was never any possibility that the SNP could (or ever can) hope to match the results of the last election, and so they were obviously on a hiding to nothing in some respects this time round. Secondly, the focus in Scotland in respect of this election was really not Brexit, nor the performance (or lack thereof) of the Tory party and Theresa May. Rather, it was about the prospect of a second Independence referendum looming large. 

For whatever reason, Corbyn's resurgence was not so effective in Scotland (perhaps he is viewed here as being too London centric) as in the rest  of the country, probably because the SNP is now seen to be the left of centre party in Scotland. As a result, I believe many  people voted Conservative simply in an attempt to scupper the chances of a second Independence referendum. They have certainly managed to do this very effectively, but I don't think that the resurgence of the Tories under Ruth Davidson in Scotland will last up to or past the next election. Next time round, I expect the Scottish Tories to return to their natural 4 or 5 seat position.

I certainly don't view the result as a victory for Ruth Davidson over Nicola Sturgeon. SNP still has by far the biggest share of the vote in Scotland, and is still the party I would personally trust to run the country most effectively and fairly, even if I did not vote for them this time round.  

Certainly the chances of a quick referendum are now pretty much gone. However, if Theresa May and the DUP go forward to the Brexit negotiations, as they appear to be doing, with a focus on a nothing-has-changed 'Hard' Brexit and the negotiations flounder as well they might, then we may see a further resurgence of the SNP vote in Scotland and the renewed chances of a second referendum in 3 or 4 years time.    

Eloise posted:

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...

I think that enjoyment is mostly about the revenge he has been taking on TM. Once that is complete - when she's resigned or been deposed - I think he'll get bored and look to re-enter politics.

Mike-B posted:

Eloise posted:

MDS posted:

I think we'll see Osborne again.  He may not have Cameron's charisma but he's a very skilled politician and compared to most in the Conservative party a genuine heavy-weight. I also suspect he still has a lot of support in the Conservative party. 

He appears to be enjoying himself more as Editor of the Standard...

Maybe its the pay packet.   Six jobs is it ??  the ES salary has not been disclosed     but whatever it is he's reputed as declaring not far off £1million for speaking fee's,  £650,000 a year from BlackRock & £120,000 as a fellow at the McCain Institute.

Since he's no longer an MP he's under no obligation to publicly declare his earnings, of course. 

Hmack posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Kevin-W posted:

Long term, I could see Osborne, snake that he is, weedling his way back in, but if the Tories have any sense, they will nurture and promote the hugely impressive Ruth Davidson (I saw her speak in Scotland yesterday) who basically saved May's butt by helping the Tories  achieve their best result north of the border in years.

No - Osborne has had this day thank goodness - but Ruth Davidson - fantastic from what I have seen and heard.. and has skillfully pulled much of the rug away from under Nicola Sturgeon's feet

 

Capable though Ruth Davidson is, I think you are perhaps overegging her achievements in Scotland. The problem for the SNP in Scotland was two-fold. Firstly, there was never any possibility that the SNP could (or ever can) hope to match the results of the last election, and so they were obviously on a hiding to nothing in some respects this time round. Secondly, the focus in Scotland in respect of this election was really not Brexit, nor the performance (or lack thereof) of the Tory party and Theresa May. Rather, it was about the prospect of a second Independence referendum looming large. 

For whatever reason, Corbyn's resurgence was not so effective in Scotland (perhaps he is viewed here as being too London centric) as in the rest  of the country, probably because the SNP is now seen to be the left of centre party in Scotland. As a result, I believe many  people voted Conservative simply in an attempt to scupper the chances of a second Independence referendum. They have certainly managed to do this very effectively, but I don't think that the resurgence of the Tories under Ruth Davidson in Scotland will last up to or past the next election. Next time round, I expect the Scottish Tories to return to their natural 4 or 5 seat position.

I certainly don't view the result as a victory for Ruth Davidson over Nicola Sturgeon. SNP still has by far the biggest share of the vote in Scotland, and is still the party I would personally trust to run the country most effectively and fairly, even if I did not vote for them this time round.  

Certainly the chances of a quick referendum are now pretty much gone. However, if Theresa May and the DUP go forward to the Brexit negotiations, as they appear to be doing, with a focus on a nothing-has-changed 'Hard' Brexit and the negotiations flounder as well they might, then we may see a further resurgence of the SNP vote in Scotland and the renewed chances of a second referendum in 3 or 4 years time.    

I very much agree with Hmach's assessment, I think it's more a case of Nicola Sturgeon shooting herself in the foot as opposed to Ruth Davidson's ability. 

or a bit of both?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

or a bit of both?

On reflection, it probably is 'a bit of both'..

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

or a bit of both?

As I think HMack alluded to... SNPs results are only poor in relation to 2015.  If you look at them compared with pre-2015 they are still brilliant.

Well as the reshuffle goes on ... it appears May has learned one lesson: keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Certainly appears to be a reshuffle to suggest "no changes planned" while trying to shore up her position.

Eloise posted:

Well as the reshuffle goes on ... it appears May has learned one lesson: keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

Certainly appears to be a reshuffle to suggest "no changes planned" while trying to shore up her position.

Not really much shuffling at all. Gove's back, of course.

I read an article in my newspaper yesterday which suggested that the Tory vote had been particularly hit in the constituencies served (sic) by Southern Rail and that a failure of the Government to sort that out had been a factor in voting.  If true, its disappointing to see Grayling re-appointed.    

MDS posted:

I read an article in my newspaper yesterday which suggested that the Tory vote had been particularly hit in the constituencies served (sic) by Southern Rail and that a failure of the Government to sort that out had been a factor in voting.  If true, its disappointing to see Grayling re-appointed.    

I have read similar, if it's really a reason for people voting (which I don't doubt) it shows just how blinkered May is.  

Given another reason people have been said to have given for voting Labour was state of the NHS ... to reappoint Hunt shows a similar blinkered attitude.

For anyone expecting May to reconsider policies ... they will be sorely disappointed I think.

Eloise posted:

MDS posted:

I read an article in my newspaper yesterday which suggested that the Tory vote had been particularly hit in the constituencies served (sic) by Southern Rail and that a failure of the Government to sort that out had been a factor in voting.  If true, its disappointing to see Grayling re-appointed.    

I have read similar, if it's really a reason for people voting (which I don't doubt) it shows just how blinkered May is.  

Given another reason people have been said to have given for voting Labour was state of the NHS ... to reappoint Hunt shows a similar blinkered attitude.

For anyone expecting May to reconsider policies ... they will be sorely disappointed I think.

I fear that at this early stage of her new premiership you are right, Eloise.  What do they say about 'if you keep doing the same things but expect different results...'?

Contrary to what I had hoped she would do (expressed above and elsewhere) this reshuffle does rather suggest business as usual ie a Hard Brexit.

If any Conservative MPs want to retain their seats in the next election (which i guess could be before Xmas), they would be well-advised to inform TM that they will be unable to support such a move.

The DUP and Scottish Conservatives, plus just a handfull of Soft-Brexit Conservatives, could easily bring her down in the next few months. And regardless of the consequences, I wouldn't shed a tear for her under such circumstances.

"Difficult" might be her chosen words to describe herself....."bloody-minded" and "pathetic" would be closer to the mark IMHO !

Don Atkinson posted:

....this reshuffle does rather suggest business as usual ie a Hard Brexit.

If that's the case then it really looks as if she's still not getting it.

I don’t see why she would carry on with the “hard brexit” bluster. The hard brexit and leave with no deal stance was aimed squarely at the UKIP voters. It was part of her cunning plan to mop up UKIP voters in last weeks general election.

Surely the hardness of this brexit thing depends largely on what the EU are prepared to give. Its not all down to us. We need to see through all the politics. 

A cross party thing would be a good idea at the moment. It might restore some peace

Eloise posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

or a bit of both?

As I think HMack alluded to... SNPs results are only poor in relation to 2015.  If you look at them compared with pre-2015 they are still brilliant.

Indeed - This was the second best result in the history of the SNP. If it had not been for the extraordinary (even freakish) result at the last election, last week's result would be being hailed as a superb result for the SNP.

The situation in Scotland is very interesting. The SNP is still by far the most supported party, although it will be interesting to see what happens if (as seems almost inevitable), Theresa May is forced to call another election within the next year or so. Although Ruth Davidson presents a more acceptable face of Conservatism than previous leaders of the Tory party in Scotland, I really can't see her repeating, never mind improving on, last weeks results. The interesting question will be that when the naturally left leaning majority of the electorate realise that Corbyn and the Labour party may be able to defeat the Conservatives in Britain after all, will a substantial number of them transfer their allegiance from the SNP to Labour? I suspect that with Corbyn in the ascendancy, Labour will indeed re-capture some of their base in Scotland.

Theresa May is surely going to go in the near future. Her position appears to be completely untenable given her unhealthy alliance with Ian Paisley's old party and her same old rhetoric post election. In the event that she is overthrown, will this lead to another election, or will the Tories try to hang on under another leader (surely not Johnson or Gove!) by claiming that they must complete the Brexit negotiations before calling another election?     

What an absolute shambles!

Hmack posted:

Theresa May is surely going to go in the near future. Her position appears to be completely untenable given her unhealthy alliance with Ian Paisley's old party and her same old rhetoric post election. In the event that she is overthrown, will this lead to another election, or will the Tories try to hang on under another leader (surely not Johnson or Gove!) by claiming that they must complete the Brexit negotiations before calling another election? 

That's the worrying thing ... regardless of if you think Conservatives or Labour are the bets option to negotiate Brexit, this is just going to waste more time.  If there is a leadership challenge then an election ... what will the claim be ... you must vote conservative because Labour will only have 12 months to negotiate a deal and they will want to revisit some earlier parts?

Drewy posted:

Surely the hardness of this brexit thing depends largely on what the EU are prepared to give. Its not all down to us. We need to see through all the politics. 

A cross party thing would be a good idea at the moment. It might restore some peace

Drewy,

A cross-party thing is what many of us here have suggested.

I don't think TM takes much notice of the sound, generous advice she could draw upon from within this forum !

Eloise posted:

Hmack posted:

Theresa May is surely going to go in the near future. Her position appears to be completely untenable given her unhealthy alliance with Ian Paisley's old party and her same old rhetoric post election. In the event that she is overthrown, will this lead to another election, or will the Tories try to hang on under another leader (surely not Johnson or Gove!) by claiming that they must complete the Brexit negotiations before calling another election? 

That's the worrying thing ... regardless of if you think Conservatives or Labour are the bets option to negotiate Brexit, this is just going to waste more time.  If there is a leadership challenge then an election ... what will the claim be ... you must vote conservative because Labour will only have 12 months to negotiate a deal and they will want to revisit some earlier parts?

We should have absolute clarity of TM's negotiating strategy a week tomorrow when she will open discussions with the EU.................

............or perhaps not, as the case might be !

Don Atkinson posted:

Drewy posted:

Surely the hardness of this brexit thing depends largely on what the EU are prepared to give. Its not all down to us. We need to see through all the politics. 

A cross party thing would be a good idea at the moment. It might restore some peace

Drewy,

A cross-party thing is what many of us here have suggested.

I don't think TM takes much notice of the sound, generous advice she could draw upon from within this forum !

I do wonder if the cross party Brexit negotiation will appear... I suspect on reflection of the current situation as said above it might bring some much needed unity given the position the likely government will find itself in especially as it appears the UKIP vote has diluted back across Labour and Tory and the Strong and Stable thing is history... I guess however how do you represent all parties, when the Libereal Democrats don't even want to leave the EU at all... and perhaps Corbyn would be reluctant to support as it may be seen as shoring up the prospects of a minority government and he can smell blood now.

On a separate matter, I do hope Corbyn's opposition goes into more detail on affordability and national debt between now and the next election (which I suspect is not so long away)... I think it's still a huge weakness, but if he can credibly put forward a proper plan and approach on how to deal apart from the blinkered facile populist approach taxing the richer even more which gives no longer term systemic support for  affordability or national debt management then he might become unstoppable... without it I think that No 10 will elude him.

S-I-S -

Given TM stated one of the driving reasons for the GE was that other parties were frustrating the reaching of a consensus approach to Brexit, then it would seem a X-party approach is an impossible dream. Albeit, like several of us here consider, it seems this and the Social Care agenda and how this can be managed in the future, are matters which transcend party politics  -  but I think we all know they won't.

For me (like you), next time (head drops at this thought) I'd like to see fuller presentation from the main parties on the economics and fiscal management piece i.e. for McDonnell and Corbyn to explain in detail (not just using the tag 'costed') what is the extent of spending proposed and how they will get the deficit removed (this just isn't sustainable), and what assumptions & risks underpin this. Equally, the Tories need to explain their plans outside of the Budgets -  TM was very weak on this when questioned, citing that people should be aware of this per the Budgets, which left the Tories wide open to Labour's stated plans and the benefits which would accrue.

We also need to be aware that fiscal drag will play e.g. it normally takes c.2Y's (if not longer) for any change in tax receipts to come through and, to my ears, many of Labour's spending plans (lots of 'free' things and spend uplifts) may not be able to be implemented in short order.

Until next time...time to move on.