Electric Cars - Saviours of our environment or just another fad?

Back to Electric vehicles........

Yesterday our neighbours had a visitor. Arrived in his EV without enough power to get back home.

Had to ask our neighbours to hook up to their 240V 3-Pin domestic supply to re-charge before leaving.

Didn't mention this until he was about to leave.

IMHO he's either a dickhead for not knowing or not planning, or a scrounger for not getting re-charged before setting out ?

I can't ever recalling the need to ask my host for petrol or diesel before leaving ! Perhaps he should have just driven off and called into the nearest re-charging station for an hour or so ?

Or called the AA

Don Atkinson posted:

The linked report indicates it's early days. And suggests to me that the dick-heads in the discussions are playing at politics rather than congestion management. Whilst I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they HAVE lost their minds, it certainly doesn't look as if they have carefully considered cycling and subsequently dismissed it as a potential revenue stream. More like it hasn't crossed their tiny minds, which are more focused on the politics.

Sooner or later they MIGHT get around to considering cycling and if so, it will be interesting to see whether they would like to encourage it and make infrastructure provision to make it viable and safe. Also how it would be funded ? eg from the mobility tax levied on motorists ?

 I'll spell it out again for you, Don. The congestion/road pricing is intended to discourage activity that is costly to society, like driving private vehicles into the city, and encourage more beneficial activities, like cycling as a means of transport. So, like every other other city everywhere, cycling is seen by people who actually understand such things as part of the solution, not the problem.

One of the problems caused by motorised congestion is pollution, hence it is common to exempt electric and low emissions vehicles. Just like they are allowed to drive in HOV lanes in many jurisdictions.

No city in the world currently implements any sort of charge on cyclists for road occupancy, with the possible exception of Sydney, where (using a slightly different approach) eye-watering fines for minor cycling transgressions are successfully, and as planned, eliminating cycling altogether.

In the UK, there were even tax breaks for people purchasing commuting bicycles. When I lived there it was open-ended allowing expensive high-end carbon race bikes to get the benefit. I believe it has subsequently been capped.

You'll be glad with all the heat that our Mayor Gregor receives for congestion-causing cycle lanes for freeloading cyclists, and rejoiced his decision to retire.

Oh, and yes people are definitely playing politics. That's how it works. (But why "dick-heads?"). The city and roads aren't yet owned by a large corporation where the CEO gets to make the call in the interests of shareholders, rather than residents.

Don Atkinson posted:

Back to Electric vehicles........

Yesterday our neighbours had a visitor. Arrived in his EV without enough power to get back home.

Had to ask our neighbours to hook up to their 240V 3-Pin domestic supply to re-charge before leaving.

Didn't mention this until he was about to leave.

IMHO he's either a dickhead for not knowing or not planning, or a scrounger for not getting re-charged before setting out ?

I can't ever recalling the need to ask my host for petrol or diesel before leaving ! Perhaps he should have just driven off and called into the nearest re-charging station for an hour or so ?

Or called the AA

Well your friend didn't plan too well, did he? But I've had to siphon fuel from friends once or twice when I was a poor student. And I did have to borrow a couple of dollars for food on a long bike ride once.

Your neighbours' friend may have had to be there for several extra hours waiting for his car to charge. They only charge fairly slowly from a 240V AC supply.

Anyway, I'd definitely offer/encourage friends with electric vehicles to hook-up for power while staying at our place if they needed to for the return journey. I'd actually see it as being a good host. The friends we do have with an electric car (Tesla 70D) would be highly unlikely to take me up on the offer as they have plenty of range, although they might be dropping by after a day of very extensive driving.

For many people, the time spent waiting for their electric vehicle to charge is close to zero. The same can't be said for the time spent waiting for a ICE vehicle to refuel. Not for you, though Don. We know you regularly drive vast distances.

winkyincanada posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

The linked report indicates it's early days. And suggests to me that the dick-heads in the discussions are playing at politics rather than congestion management. Whilst I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they HAVE lost their minds, it certainly doesn't look as if they have carefully considered cycling and subsequently dismissed it as a potential revenue stream. More like it hasn't crossed their tiny minds, which are more focused on the politics.

Sooner or later they MIGHT get around to considering cycling and if so, it will be interesting to see whether they would like to encourage it and make infrastructure provision to make it viable and safe. Also how it would be funded ? eg from the mobility tax levied on motorists ?

 I'll spell it out again for you, Don. The congestion/road pricing is intended to discourage activity that is costly to society, like driving private vehicles into the city, and encourage more beneficial activities, like cycling as a means of transport. So, like every other other city everywhere, cycling is seen by people who actually understand such things as part of the solution, not the problem.

One of the problems caused by motorised congestion is pollution, hence it is common to exempt electric and low emissions vehicles. Just like they are allowed to drive in HOV lanes in many jurisdictions.

No city in the world currently implements any sort of charge on cyclists for road occupancy, with the possible exception of Sydney, where (using a slightly different approach) eye-watering fines for minor cycling transgressions are successfully, and as planned, eliminating cycling altogether.

In the UK, there were even tax breaks for people purchasing commuting bicycles. When I lived there it was open-ended allowing expensive high-end carbon race bikes to get the benefit. I believe it has subsequently been capped.

You'll be glad with all the heat that our Mayor Gregor receives for congestion-causing cycle lanes for freeloading cyclists, and rejoiced his decision to retire.

Oh, and yes people are definitely playing politics. That's how it works. (But why "dick-heads?"). The city and roads aren't yet owned by a large corporation where the CEO gets to make the call in the interests of shareholders, rather than residents.

No need to spell it out - Which is simply your take on the situation anyway. The report indicates the discussion has a long way to go.

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...-unprecedented-sales

This is pretty bullish on the Tesla Model 3. (Our delivery date is still showing late 2018, but I expect this to push back into mid 2019, given production ramp-up delays.)

The new Tesla Roadster has a 620 mile range with its 100Kwh battery. Unfortunately the $245,000 price tag doesn't scream "mass adoption in five years" Still... 0-60 MPH in 1.9 seconds sounds thrilling.

Old news I'm afraid. 

Edit: and it's not going to be available until 2020.  

winkyincanada posted:

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...-unprecedented-sales

This is pretty bullish on the Tesla Model 3. (Our delivery date is still showing late 2018, but I expect this to push back into mid 2019, given production ramp-up delays.)

Recent article in UK motoring press highlighted a dangerous period Teslar are currently enduring.  Their business model relied upon them being up and running with the Model 3 much sooner than they appear able.  The huge monetary investment has reached the point where it now needs to be paying back through sales to ease finance pressures. The importance of the time line is compounded by the inevitable huge wave of cars which will be coming to market in the next year or two from the main stream Europeans (Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW) who will all be fighting for EV market share.  I really hope that Musk succeeds with this incredibly massive endeavour and that Teslar are not stampeded onto the sidelines by the 'Establishment'.  Central to this is getting production of Model 3 up to speed, and soon.

Peter

northpole posted:

winkyincanada posted:

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...-unprecedented-sales

This is pretty bullish on the Tesla Model 3. (Our delivery date is still showing late 2018, but I expect this to push back into mid 2019, given production ramp-up delays.)

Recent article in UK motoring press highlighted a dangerous period Teslar are currently enduring.  Their business model relied upon them being up and running with the Model 3 much sooner than they appear able.  The huge monetary investment has reached the point where it now needs to be paying back through sales to ease finance pressures. The importance of the time line is compounded by the inevitable huge wave of cars which will be coming to market in the next year or two from the main stream Europeans (Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW) who will all be fighting for EV market share.  I really hope that Musk succeeds with this incredibly massive endeavour and that Teslar are not stampeded onto the sidelines by the 'Establishment'.  Central to this is getting production of Model 3 up to speed, and soon.

Peter

One thing to consider is that the market that Tesla are now (or soon to be) competing in is the "vehicle" market, rather than the "electric vehicle" market. The Model 3 is intended to move them into the mainstream. The Model 3 is intended to compete with Passats, A4s, Series 3 bimmers and C-class Mercs etc. (The Model S has already beaten the big three Germans for large vehicles in every major market). They don't really give a rats @r$$ about Chevy Bolts, or Nissan Leafs. They can increase sales by a couple of orders of magnitude and still not be anywhere near the sales of the "conventional" manufacturers. The market has plenty of room. If the Model 3 gains mainstream acceptance, then the entry of other electric vehicles into that space is of far smaller concern. I think the Model 3 is already better than the ICE competition in every way that matters to the vast majority of potential customers (Don notwithstanding).

None of the mainstream manufacturers seem in any hurry to enter the true BEV space in any case. They are stepping slowly with plug-in hybrids, which may slowly morph over time via increasing battery range into proper BEVs. It's a path, for sure. but not one that needs to bother Tesla. Tesla is also the only game in (out of) town for electric vehicles for extended journeys with their (currently) unique supercharger network.

But you're right, cash burn is a major concern. They need to gets some sales happening, and soon.

What I believe will accelerate the mobilisation of the Euro Establishment manufacturers is the recoil they are facing against their diesel engine technology.  Politicians are at play again, no less than in UK where I think we saw a 17% reduction in diesel car sales last year, and approx 30+% decrease year on year in December.  In the short term we are likely to see the shift towards petrol engines (and hybrids) which will start driving CO2 emissions up again.  All the greater incentive for the big players to get on board the electric technology.

Incidentally, one thing which continues to puzzle me is how Teslar were able to push on with their project when companies such as Toyota/ Lexus who have been making hybrids for the last decade appear to have missed a trick.  When I was switching from diesel to hybrid, the salesman advised that Lexus have stuck with the old generation of battery technology because of concerns about the thermal attributes/ potential instability of the lithium batteries.  Perhaps that is true or perhaps towing the line until they take a step forward.

Peter

Whether it's in a sharp suit or a sheepskin, a car salesman is a car salesman. I ignore almost everything they say except the price, and that's subjected to at least a double check. 

I have this neighbour's Model S parked on my street and must say I thought it was a Maserati at first.  Nice looking car  but, as other have said, the competition is now wide open and with Mr Musk investing heavily on his space touring ambitions ,  I wonder how long before his terrestrial venture takes second place to his Space X venture.

winkyincanada posted:

northpole posted:

winkyincanada posted:

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...-unprecedented-sales

This is pretty bullish on the Tesla Model 3. (Our delivery date is still showing late 2018, but I expect this to push back into mid 2019, given production ramp-up delays.)

Recent article in UK motoring press highlighted a dangerous period Teslar are currently enduring.  Their business model relied upon them being up and running with the Model 3 much sooner than they appear able.  The huge monetary investment has reached the point where it now needs to be paying back through sales to ease finance pressures. The importance of the time line is compounded by the inevitable huge wave of cars which will be coming to market in the next year or two from the main stream Europeans (Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW) who will all be fighting for EV market share.  I really hope that Musk succeeds with this incredibly massive endeavour and that Teslar are not stampeded onto the sidelines by the 'Establishment'.  Central to this is getting production of Model 3 up to speed, and soon.

Peter

One thing to consider is that the market that Tesla are now (or soon to be) competing in is the "vehicle" market, rather than the "electric vehicle" market. The Model 3 is intended to move them into the mainstream. The Model 3 is intended to compete with Passats, A4s, Series 3 bimmers and C-class Mercs etc. (The Model S has already beaten the big three Germans for large vehicles in every major market). They don't really give a rats @r$$ about Chevy Bolts, or Nissan Leafs. They can increase sales by a couple of orders of magnitude and still not be anywhere near the sales of the "conventional" manufacturers. The market has plenty of room. If the Model 3 gains mainstream acceptance, then the entry of other electric vehicles into that space is of far smaller concern. I think the Model 3 is already better than the ICE competition in every way that matters to the vast majority of potential customers (Don notwithstanding).

None of the mainstream manufacturers seem in any hurry to enter the true BEV space in any case. They are stepping slowly with plug-in hybrids, which may slowly morph over time via increasing battery range into proper BEVs. It's a path, for sure. but not one that needs to bother Tesla. Tesla is also the only game in (out of) town for electric vehicles for extended journeys with their (currently) unique supercharger network.

But you're right, cash burn is a major concern. They need to gets some sales happening, and soon.

I'm pleased to see you recognise that based on my practical experience with a Teslar Model S I have not been hood-winked (there's a pun in there somewhere)  by Teslar's offerings to date.

The future might be different.

Don Atkinson posted:

I'm pleased to see you recognise that based on my practical experience with a Tesla Model S I have not been hood-winked (there's a pun in there somewhere)  by Tesla's offerings to date.

The future might be different.

Yes, your seemingly insatiable desire to always be somewhere that you are not is certainly an exception to the notion that electric cars are extremely practical for the vast majority of motorists.