Is there a future for High-End HiFi?

Posted by: Johns Naim on 16 April 2004

Afternoon All

Perhaps I should add to my opening subject,the proviso of 'of any significance'

Ambling around the forum here as I am want to do, shows the main topics to be of the usual somewhat Naim focussed thoughts (no bad thing in that) and meanderings about HiFi and Naim in general.

Nonetheless here and there pops up a few threads about the way things seem to be heading re the development of HiFi, and the ever increasing AV side of things, in fact arguably perhaps the dominant side of the equation, and how music will be deliverd in the future.

It would appear that the not-too-distant future will likely be an amalgamation of multi-channel surround into both the music as well as the HT arenas, as few people have the space and funds necessary to have two separate systems.

Further, as the pressures of time become increasingly demanding, with regards to actually being able to spend large amounts of spare time listening to music on one's high-end HiFi such as to justify the outlay required to purchase it, and the competition for disposable income with items like computers etc now coming so strongly into our lives as well, all these things combined push the high-end expensive HiFi into very much an increasing niche market, with a smaller and smaller share of the overall pie IMHO.

To be sure, it was always the province of enthusiasts and hobbyists, but it appears that in return for the smaller quantities being sold, re a diminshing market, that the prices keep ever increasing, thus placing so much that is good out of reach for many.

On that point it is very refreshing to see Naim bring out the new CD5i range etc, as it has brilliant performance, and is very affordable.

The outlook for high-end HiFi nowadays is very different IMV from when I started out with this hobby. High-end equipment, whilst not cheap, was relatively affordable for the enthusiast, and one could contemplate and aspire to actually owning 'the best'

The 'best' thesedays, in the high-end specialist scene, is really only achievable by VERY wealthy folks, or obsessives who will sacrifice overall quality of life simply to have the 'best' kit.

The mass market, i.e non-enthusiast was never interested in music seriously enough to want, or appreciate what a high-end system could do, however it seems to have embraced HT with an enthusiasm it never showed for specialist HiFi.

Perhaps it is the really quite good results in terms of the overall involvement/satisfaction factor one can get for reasonably modest outlays, or the accesibility of the 'fix' with no seeming black art/tweakery involved, but the mass market seems to have taken to HT in a way that is in stark contrast to the way serious 2 channel systems were ignored by most.

What intrigues me about this, is that with the blending of multi-channel music & HT that now appears to be happening, and arguably a pointer to the future, I sadly see 2 channel becomming more and more like valves, mono, and 78rpm records - around, there, expensive, and largely irrelevant to most except die-hard enthusiasts. Not to be harsh, but it would seem to be the reality.

Further, in the new arena of multi-channel amps etc, the innovators of new technology are invariably the mainstream manufactures, and the gap in performance between them and the specialist high-end seems to be narrowing, whilst price differences continue to increase.

In this seemingly impending new order/direction for home entertainment of the music and HT kind that seems to be fast descending upon us, I wonder how relevent the high-end specialist manufacturer will continue to be.

For example, normally one does not use the word Sony and high-end in the same sentence, however I note on some of the US HT forums, that some folks are selling/trading VERY expensive (US $10,000 +) AR valve amps on the new top of the line DA9000ES digital receiver, as with it's state of the art digital amplification it is reputed to have a similar and more than competitive valve like sound to the AR's, whilst also offering DD & DTS decoding facilities for the HT side of things, and costs a VERY great deal less.

A few years ago, to mention Sony and Audio Research in the same breath would've been deemed laughable. Times change, and I've no doubt that in the mainstream, digital amplification will be the way things will go, for various reasons - cost, size, heat, efficiency, and not least simple circuit design that promises much re sound quality - the fact that an amp like the Sony appears to compete sound-wise with high-end AR's says an awful lot for the future IMHO.

No doubt, the specialist manufacturers, recognising the trend, will either do a take on the swiss watch industry when it was threatened by the Japanese, and retreat further into producing high-end 'Rolexes', of value only to a very select few who can afford it, or come out with the equivalent of the swatch perhaps.

What does seem apparent through all of this to me, is that either my ears are going off, or the performance gap between the high-end of the mainstream makers, and the true specialist manufacturer/tweaker/tuner, is narrowing considerably, whilst the price differential only grows, as the market share for the specialist ever diminishes, and consequent costs/profit margins required to stay in business increase.

Certainly with the ever likely advent of digital amplification, and the simplicity that conveys to a circuit, the envelope for the specialist to tweak the sound to any degree so as to sound demonstrateably better, as against merely different, seems to be narrowing considerably.

Witness the sad, but recent demise of Tag McClaren. I am also under the impression that Levinson is in trouble as well. My Naim dealer here in OZ, has so far been unsucessful to the best of my knowledge in as yet selling one AV2 - the main reason simply being price, or rather the price/performance equation.

And as if my words could be prophetic in some way, I note, just having returned from some window shopping, and picking up a latest Sony catalogue, that here in OZ, they no longer offer a two channel stereo amp for sale. Period.

Personally I really applaud the new entry level Naims, as having heard them, the performance v's the price is fantastic, and holds out some hope, in terms of being able to get something quite special at a price that one can contemplate.

I would like to think in this ever and rapidly changing HT & music scene, that companies like Naim won't end up becomming the Rolex of HiFi, but will continue to make stunning and affordable components for the enthusiast. If that involves DVD, or a sub/sat system, whatever, that is fine by me, provided that there is an edge in performance over competing products, and within a relevant price structure.

Otherwise, apart from wealthy millionaires, and the afore-mentioned obsessives, out-of-sight high-end gear, and especially 2 channel looks like going the way of the 78rpm record IMHO.

Anyway, just some thoughts and general meanderings of the 2 cents variety on a Sat afternoon.

Thoughts anyone?

Cheers

John... Big Grin

Populist thinking exalts the simplistic and the ordinary
Posted on: 20 April 2004 by Stevea
quote:
Originally posted by greeny:
One thing that has only been touched on so far in this thread, but which might have a large impact in supporting quality 2 channel music for the next 10-15 years is imminent retirees. Music was really in its heyday in the 60's and 70's (before computer games started taking over in the 80's) the 20 something's of 1970 are now at or near retirment age.
.....
So whereas there may be a reduction of young people buying good HiFi (iPods, plazma screens and HT being bought instead) there may be a significant increase in the 50+ age group buying quality stuff.

How many 50+'s were buying good hiFi 20 years ago (not many I suspect)


This sounds a like supportable model. Unfortunately for the high end 2 channel audio manufacturers it also spells trouble as their main market, that group approaching retirement in the next 15-20 years (include me there) are part of the baby boom bubble or the approaching 'glut' of oldies. Once we have satisfied our desires for really good systems (strong desires we mostly developed well before we could afford them) before we retire, that is it - POOF - no more market. Those coming behind will never have the same desires because they were not brought up in an environment where two channel was IT and the only thing there to desire was a better IT.

Steve
Posted on: 21 April 2004 by greeny
quote:
Once we have satisfied our desires for really good systems (strong desires we mostly developed well before we could afford them) before we retire, that is it - POOF - no more market. Those coming behind will never have the same desires because they were not brought up in an environment where two channel was IT and the only thing there to desire was a better IT.



I agree. In 20 -30 years time the hiEnd Stereo market may have all but died. But until the current 30-40 year olds have satisfied their needs there will be a quite healthy market, this I would have thought will keep things going for the next 20 years.
Posted on: 21 April 2004 by Wilbur Pan
quote:
Originally posted by Johns Naim:

Having heard a CDX2/XPS/552/SC/250/Allaes, as the best Naim gear I've ever heard, it was listened to out of curiousity, and whilst excellent, was still not 'perfect' IMV, and thus regretfully dismissed out of hand, as being not 'perfect' and completely unaffordable

Actually, one way to put this into perspective is to consider the cost of seeing live music. The system you described costs about US$45000, according to the Naim USA website. For this amount of money you could easily get a season subscription with the best seats in the house to your favorite symphony orchestra, and travel and accomodations for each show.

Just to be ridiculous, suppose I live in New York but my favorite symphony is the San Francisco Symphony:

San Francisco Symphony Orcestra 18 week concert series: US$1800
First class plane tickets to San Francisco from New York: US$1000/trip = US$18000
Hotel accommodations: US$200/night = US$400/trip = US$7200
Total: US$27000