Musings on the Future

Posted by: Todd A on 28 November 2001

I posted this on a different forum in response to some similarly themed posts. Please be gentle.

quote:
Contrary to some opinions I believe it quite safe to say that CDs will not be obsolete in a few years. Eventually yes, but not in a few years. Let's say 7-10 years. One of the big stumbling blocks will be automobiles, at least stateside. So many cars come with CD players now and so many consumers are used to having them that CDs will be around for a while. Some models come with MP3 players now, but sales do not appear especially brisk for that option. Retrofitting cars with crusty old CD players will not happen, so it will take time to phase out the CD in favor of any new technology.
Incidentally, I don't see an especially bright future for SACD, though DVD-A may eventually succeed to some extent (it has DVD in the name, after all).
As for pumping compressed crap into one's home - a dreadful option already exercised by some (shudder) - that, too, will take quite some time to saturate the market. While some of the technology is there, the infrastructure is not developed enough and the ROI is not high enough currently to sustain large expansions. Here in the States one of the larger broadband providers filed for good old Chapter 11, and not even mighty AT&T may be able keep supplying its customers with service! Now this is just a hiccup, to be sure, but it makes it clear that widely-available, cable-delivered garbage is still a bit in the future. (Rejoice!) And the monthly outlays for the deluxe packages including all manner of trash will be too expensive for many peoples’ tastes, so buying a box and feeding it some software will remain a favored option for a while.
I don't spend a great deal of time contemplating such uncertainties, rather preferring to listen to my “crappy” old 3.5, but I think that the new Linn Kivor represents at least part of the future. Here is a technology that can be expanded over time – at least in theory I would guess – to allow the user to store CDs, SACDs, DVD-As, music DVD-Vs, downloaded MP3s and anything else one may prefer, in either a compressed or standard format and then to turn around and play it. If such a system could be made to sound good with higher quality inputs (i.e., uncompressed sources), and be based on a completely reliable storage system (a hard-drive just won’t do), it would be worth considering. Multiple sources will continue to exist, and the cheapest ones to produce (which includes CDs) will remain. Hell, you vinyl-lovers can still buy new pressings if you look hard enough.

Posted on: 28 November 2001 by David Dever

No matter what the (data) format, someone still needs to design a box to convert it into music. (The AV2's digital inputs will accept a 24-bit/96 kHz two-channel bitstream, and sounds great even on an inexpensive DVD player, AC-3 notwithstanding.)

As to where the data comes from, well, keep in mind that the Kivor falls into the "media server" category. As with any server, there will be a failure (no such optimism in the computer industry). It still runs a boxed operating system (linux of some flavor), and features components that will quickly decrease in price shortly after (prior to!) introduction.

If you're really bent on the media server thing, put together your own machine, with your own choice of software, and jam it into a closet somewhere, toying with it on your own time. You may cobble together something you like--run it into a decent processor and see what happens.

Dave Dever, NANA

Posted on: 28 November 2001 by Steve B

Judging by the rate at which the price of memory has fallen over the last few years I can imagine music on ROM chips soon becoming a practical alternative to spinning discs.

If that is the future, I just hope they don't compress the life out of the music.

Steve B

Posted on: 28 November 2001 by Jez Quigley

One day....

All of the world's recorded music/films/TV will be in a huge online data store like a giant juke-box and available uncompressed through a super high bandwith connection via an intelligent and easy to use interface so that I can chose to listen to anything at anytime, anywhere. For this I will pay a flat monthly fee.

In the meantime I'd like a Naim box that plays all video and audio formats.