Economics - does it work?
Posted by: Deane F on 22 March 2007
Has the advice of any economist ever achieved what the economist said it would?
Posted on: 22 March 2007 by acad tsunami
No.
Posted on: 22 March 2007 by JoeH
Adam Smith got most things right, though he tended not to give advice so much as spell out the likely consequences of particular policies.
Posted on: 23 March 2007 by JamieWednesday
Too many variables for consistently accurate long term predictions. It's a bit like the weather and chaos theory with a bit of quantum mechanics thrown in.
If something is specifically right, it's usually a lucky call (and there will be many unlucky ones too) however those with more practice and experience do seem to be 'luckier' than others usually it seems. Or occasionally they're right through their call manipulating fiscal direction and then you get into a whole argument about cause and effect. Greenspan was considered very good at his calls but maybe that was because of where he was and the influence his own predictions exerted, how good is he now? We'll know by the year end.
However some people will be led to believe anything. One popular number theorist predicted the stock downturn on 27th Feb to the very day, triggered perhaps by the Chinese threat to impose CGT added to constant worries over US data. However this belief in numbers kinda ignored the fact that although that Chinese market fell 9% on the day, the preceeding week it had gained 13% and has since gone onto gain new all time highs. So there.
If something is specifically right, it's usually a lucky call (and there will be many unlucky ones too) however those with more practice and experience do seem to be 'luckier' than others usually it seems. Or occasionally they're right through their call manipulating fiscal direction and then you get into a whole argument about cause and effect. Greenspan was considered very good at his calls but maybe that was because of where he was and the influence his own predictions exerted, how good is he now? We'll know by the year end.
However some people will be led to believe anything. One popular number theorist predicted the stock downturn on 27th Feb to the very day, triggered perhaps by the Chinese threat to impose CGT added to constant worries over US data. However this belief in numbers kinda ignored the fact that although that Chinese market fell 9% on the day, the preceeding week it had gained 13% and has since gone onto gain new all time highs. So there.