What recession?

I have to say that the reality has not begun to strike home yet.

This winter is going to be interesting with H1N1 and the continuing effects of the slump in terms of redundancies ...

Sorry, but in my view all we have seen so far is the end of the begining of a very long and painful period of austerity and hardship ...

Tax cuts anyone, after the election - I think not ...

ATB from George

PS: Never has the old saying,"Carpe diem," seemed more sensible advice, as what cannot be afforded today, probably would not be affordable in any case tomorrow, so get it today if you can. Live today and let the Devil take the hindmost ....

This recession is an odd one. As eBay will attest, there are people out there buying stuff. Three of my coworkers have just bought cars within two months of me being laid-off.

Many of my former customers saw demand for their products (steel, nickel, petrochemicals) fall off a cliff.

Demand HAS to pick up, too many of us want to spend money. I guess it's a question of the banks letting us ....

quote:

Tax cuts anyone, after the election - I think not ...

Dear George

Are you predicting pre-election tax cuts? Not that tax cuts will matter if we don't have jobs.

Still we just beat India and with a bit of luck could be in the semi-finals; so let's not be too gloomy.

I think we'll be bouncing back soon - there is a song about my attitude to what is to come - right here.

ATB Rotf

£310 for a NAIT2 - not enough IMHO, you'd need to pay double that for an integrated of that quality these days. The world has already gone nuts ... got to go here comes the nurse with my medication.

H1N1 is a pile of crap designed to sell vaccine and oseltamavir; just keep your immune system healthy and eat nutritionally and get rest.

This is indeed a very strange recession. If you're in steady employment with a mortgage which is a tracker or reverted to SVR, you're actually doing very well at the moment, probably with the highest disposable income you've had for some time. Add to that the fact that inflation is practically zero and there's many a bargain to be had no matter what you're buying.

quote:

Originally posted by DrMark:
H1N1 is a pile of crap designed to sell vaccine and oseltamavir; just keep your immune system healthy and eat nutritionally and get rest.

I seem to remember something similar being said about HIV in the early 1980s.

Perhaps so, but it is rather easier to avoid getting HIV...

Like pregnancy, the recession will come to an end.

Engelbert

We are in the eye of the storm, many will be caught out. First phase was lack of credit with a needed adjustment of asset prices, the second phase - to come - will be unemployment and continued asset adjustment. A house price chart, 1970 to now, with an overlay of average earnings will give an indication of where house prices are going. Also, banks are carrying a near crippling amount of debt from commercial property. Still, a recession doesn't affect us all in the same way, some still have money for luxuries, or is a Nait 2 a necessity?

BigH47 - what would you pay for a Nait 2?

Cheers,
OW

I agree we are in the eye of a storm. Just wait till interest rates start to rise, which they must do soon.

Also a phenomena I saw a lot of at the end of the last recession was that banks waited for many company's asset base to increase in value before liquidating them, just as things were on the up. In my game, construction, there is little point in banks liquidating many of the businesses on their books, but wait for property prices and land values to pick up and then see what happens.

quote:

Originally posted by Gary S.:

Also a phenomena I saw a lot of at the end of the last recession was that banks waited for many company's asset base to increase in value before liquidating them, just as things were on the up.

This quote sums it for me..

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining. but wants it back the minute it starts to rain" ~ Mark Twain

Jono

quote:

Originally posted by Jono 13:
"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining. but wants it back the minute it starts to rain" ~ Mark Twain

Sometimes the sun shines so hard you could do with the loan of a parasol.

The sun hasn't shinned for a long time.

'I buy when everybody else is afraid - I'm afraid when everybody else buys'

Credited to Warren Buffet (who is rather well off).

JohanR (Just bought a bicycle at half price)

quote:

Originally posted by Polarbear:
The sun hasn't shinned for a long time.

Tell me about it....!

quote:

Originally posted by Adam Meredith:

quote:

Originally posted by Jono 13:
"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining. but wants it back the minute it starts to rain" ~ Mark Twain

Sometimes the sun shines so hard you could do with the loan of a parasol.

Fiscally speaking I wish it would, as I would placing my order for a 55x system with Ovators to be installed in my custom designed home located in semi-rural Devon over looking the sea. To be enjoyed in a well funded semi-retirement.

Jono

quote:

Originally posted by oscarskeeper:
Perhaps so, but it is rather easier to avoid getting HIV...

...which disproves the DrMark point further...

The recession is over. The press just hasn't realised it yet. Now starts the painful recovery...

quote:

Originally posted by BigH47:
£310 for a NAIT2 on ebay , just finished. Is the world going nuts?

Its just ebay, going, or continuing to be nuts!

Dave

quote:

Originally posted by GFFJ:
PS: Never has the old saying,"Carpe diem," seemed more sensible advice, as what cannot be afforded today, probably would not be affordable in any case tomorrow, so get it today if you can. Live today and let the Devil take the hindmost ....

Ill use this when i pick up a flatcap2x this week

quote:

...which disproves the DrMark point further...

Do some investigation before "disproving" anything - like finding out which high ranking US government officials were investing in which pharmaceutical companies prior to the "pandemic" announcement.

The H1N1 virus is real, but it is like any other flu virus - it attacks a weakened host. Your immune system knows how to handle it; it is no more virulent than any other strain. It may well have been created in a lab, since it fits no known "evolutionary" model from other flu viruses. (It has characteristics of several strains and appeared all at once.) If you eat well with proper nutrition, and avoid getting run down and direct intimate contact with an infected person, you should be fine.

The flu vaccine issued every year is a farce. They make a guess on 3 strains out of hundreds and hope they get it right. My friend got the shot last year and was feverish with aches & chills for 3 days and missed work. I asked him what was the difference?

Remember, if it's on TV and especially if it's uttered by politicians, it's either manufactured or an out and out lie. All governments operate on the credo of "never let a good crisis go to waste." And as for Big Pharma...well, just follow the money.

And don't worry - inflation IS coming; you can't have central banks printing up copious quantities of fiat money and avoid it. Once the banks start lending again, due to their ability to create money out of thin air vis-a-vis fractional reserve banking, that's when it will take hold. Your Naim gear (and everything else) will go up in price significantly in the next 2-5 years.

Right now you can get non-essentials (like Naim - well, maybe that should be considered essential ) at better prices, but hard commodities are going to go up, which will increase the production cost, etc, etc. But here in the US, food is definitely going up already...I canot speak to what is happening in most other parts of the world regarding the price of essentials, other than my friend in the Ukraine is considering moving back in with her parents because she can't afford ot live on her own any more because of the everyday cost of living increase.

Buy Naim now!

quote:

BigH47 - what would you pay for a Nait 2?

I don't know that I want one particlarly. I did pay £160 for a NAIT (1), from a dealer, a couple of years ago though.
I would have thought around £200 would have been a good price for a NAIT2, but what do I know.
This follows on from the 2 SCs I tried to get from E-Bay both went for £1900 much more than I was prepared to pay online.

quote:

Originally posted by BigH47:
£310 for a NAIT2 on ebay , just finished. Is the world going nuts?

I think it's a good investment.

quote:

Originally posted by DrMark:

The H1N1 virus is real, but it is like any other flu virus - it attacks a weakened host. Your immune system knows how to handle it; it is no more virulent than any other strain.

I may be wrong here, but wasn't the 1918 influenza pandemic ("Spanish Flu", which killed tens of millions of people) a form of H1N1? And didn't it kill non-weakened hosts (eg healthy young adults) via a cytokine storm?

That said, I do agree the whole 'flu vaccine thing is a pile of crap. Stay in bed!