Nuclear Terrorism

Posted by: bhazen on 09 August 2005

This is mainly for U.S. residents (as I think we're the fat target); what do you think the likelyhood for smuggled N-weapons being detonated in major U.S. cities is?

Some suggest that "suitcase" nukes, bought by al-Qaeda from sources in the former Soviet Union may already be in place in our urban areas. What are your plans to deal with this possibility?
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by Derek Wright
back to the start of thread again
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by Martin Payne
quote:
Originally posted by JonR:
Yep. There's one under your very own Yellowstone National Park. And it's overdue...



Yup, anytime in the next few hundred thousand years.

With any luck, we'll get enough notice about an asteroid (maybe decades) to do something about it.

I'd have thought that a long-period comet would give a lot less notice, though...

cheers, Martin
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by Roy T
A couple of years ago someone sent via snail mail a few packets of weapons grade anthrax spores to the folks Capitol Hill and at the time it was touted as an attack by WMDs, anyone know the results of any investigation into this happening?
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by fred simon
.
quote:
Originally posted by Martin Payne:
quote:
Originally posted by JonR:
Yep. There's one under your very own Yellowstone National Park. And it's overdue...



Yup, anytime in the next few hundred thousand years.



Possibly much "sooner" (in geologic terms) than that. Hey, it could only be a mere one thousand years from now. Or less. The Yellowstone Park supervolcano is one of the largest in the world, and is on a 600,000 year cycle. It last erupted 640,000 years ago.

There are also supervolcanoes in Siberia, Japan, Sumatra, and New Zealand. The last supervolcanic eruption was Toba (in Sumatra), 74,000 years ago, and scientists believe that its ejecta so efficiently blocked out the sun that temperatures plummeted, possibly reducing the world's human population to just a few thousand.

There are actually two more supervolcanoes in the USA besides Yellowstone: the Long Valley Caldera in California and the Valles Caldera in New Mexico. It's interesting to note that of the world's seven supervolcanoes, three are in the Western United States. I blame the Republicans. Big Grin


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Posted on: 15 August 2005 by Steve Toy
The 600,000 year cycle is an urban myth. I posted a link some time back on this topic. Can't remember where it is now.

Basically, the chances of the Yellowstone Caldera going up max in the next few thousand years are remote.
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by NaimDropper
What about that dirty-suitcase-supervolcano-nuclear-anthrax thing I heard about the other day?
That's what I'm worried about.
(Actually, if the Repubs have anything to do with it, it is pronounced "NUK-u-lur".)
David
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by Bob Edwards
Roy--

The reason the anthrax story disappeared is because no one was ever caught, despite the massive resources committed. It rather put egg on the face of the FBI (not all of it deserved, from what I know), among others, and will probably never be solved at this point.

As for nuclear terrorism--yes, it is rather a "jobs for boys" thing.

Best,

Bob
Posted on: 15 August 2005 by fred simon
.
quote:
Originally posted by Steve Toy:
The 600,000 year cycle is an urban myth. I posted a link some time back on this topic. Can't remember where it is now.

Basically, the chances of the Yellowstone Caldera going up max in the next few thousand years are remote.


Yes, fairly remote chance, for sure. Unless it happens, of course. Big Grin

Don't think the 600,000 year cycle is an urban legend, though, at least according to this article: http://tinyurl.com/6j4mo

Explosions of this magnitude "happen about every 600,000 years at Yellowstone," says Chuck Wicks of the U.S. Geological Survey, who has studied the possibilities in separate work. "And it's been about 620,000 years since the last super explosive eruption there."


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Posted on: 16 August 2005 by Martin Payne
quote:
Originally posted by fred simon:
Possibly much "sooner" (in geologic terms) than that. Hey, it could only be a mere one thousand years from now. Or less. The Yellowstone Park supervolcano is one of the largest in the world, and is on a 600,000 year cycle. It last erupted 640,000 years ago.



This page reckons there have been nine eruptions over the last 16 million years, although the last three have been pretty close to a 0.65m year repeat.

cheers, Martin
Posted on: 16 August 2005 by Roy T
IAEA
Pop this on your bookmarks and this as an RSS feed then with any luck at all you should have enough time to head for the hills when things start to go wrong Eek
Posted on: 16 August 2005 by bhazen
OK, how about the Asian Bird Flu crossing over to humans...1918 Spanish Flu pandemic all over again?
Posted on: 16 August 2005 by Nime
More died of flu in 1918 than in the Great War. It affected healthy young people more than the old and very young.

Bird flu has reached Eastern Europe...

You spend all your life worrying about all the things that might have gone wrong and in the end it's not what you expected at all. Just don't feed any wild ducks and we might just get through this. Winker