The upcoming US presidential election

Kerry gets the chance then!!
How is it looking over there?

Prior to the convention, he was behind in polls based on electoral vote and ahead in those based on popular vote. Sound familiar?

I think the Dems had a good convention, though they sounded very "passionate conservative" (doing their job I suppose).

I enjoyed the speeches given by Obama (a star!), Clinton, Sharpton (genius!), Teresa Heinz-Kerry (what a woman!), and Kerry (truly a great man). Go team!

FWIW and for those interested, here is the text of what I thought were the two best speeches (though you miss the great performances): Obama and Sharpton (the "we'd ride this donkey as far as it would take us" bit was absolutely priceless).

Unlike the Central in Central Park, The Central line and the CEGB, the Central
in the CIA means something totally different. It means in reality that it isn't
Central at all at all, and now that its greatest modern day leader recently had
to resign because he wasn't Central enough, a New and even more Committee - free
Centralisation is to soon be implimented.
This bold innovative mind-blowingly
"Middle-Minded" person will be known as the "National Intelligence Tzsar/ina"
(N.I.T.) and all of his/her Executive Middle - Minders will be Agency
workers,(who'll maybe get a full contract later ?) but concentrating on their
Centrality as (N.I.T.NURSES).
So now to make things totally clear, without any
further confusion for the American people you will now for the first time since
1947 have your very own official NIT, innit.


Fritz Von Luvvlyjubblyobviousinnit:

P.S. Tony say's he wants one of those as well !!! Blungle replies, no probs Geoffrey we'll spray the whole country wiv a wainbow.

I have a good feeling that we are about to have another pres called JFK. He was so behind a few months ago, but was that real or was he playing the game?

quote:

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Originally posted by Rasher:
I have a good feeling that we are about to have another pres called JFK. He was so behind a few months ago, but was that real or was he playing the game?

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I hope you're right, but... The sad truth is that the same problems persist. Because of the electoral college system (which strongly favours Bush this year), whoever wins Florida is likely to win the whole thing, and this state is as corrupt as ever. The new voting machines will probably be a fiasco - and there will be no paper trail, so no recounts. Last time, we had the hanging chads, the uncounted votes and the purging of the electoral roll, among other treats. These were a mixture of Democrat incompetence and Republican manoeuvring. You can be certain there will be more, as yet unpredicted, dirty tricks.

Davie (taxed but not represented)

I don't believe that anybody seriously accepts that Rumsfeld doesn't push Powell
around behind the scenes, and with yet another body to play with (Non Cabinet)
if he /she actually materialises and isn't just another time wasting election
manouver we shall reamain to see, spose it's all NIT PICKING ?

Fritz Von Firstwetakemanhattanthenwetakeberlin


P.S. I hear ther'es a real party atmosphere in Manhattan at the moment with
press and tv wallers camped out in the street and deckchairs an all, taking
designer macho shots of the heavily amoured Cops with their sub-machine guns,
etc, etc, most embarrassing for them I woulöd imagine, but heck the Republican's
are coming to town, never mind Santa Klaus, innit.

Sometimes I almost wish I was a Taffy

JFK currently 5 points ahead of Bush.
Well...that's what I heard last night anyway.

Ugh !!! Tongue Sandwiches, but they've been in somebody elses mouth !

Call me slow but I've just realized that the Democrats see this game as enthusiastic backyard sparring and the Republicans see it as a no-holds-barred Rage In The Cage Deathmatch(tm).

I'm beginning to think Bush is going to run away with it.

ejl, Bob E, Dan M, bhazen, Justin, etc- thoughts?

Ludwig,

I've had my hands over my eyes all week. Of course I've still wound up seeing more than I wanted to.

At this point I think the election is completely up in the air, and don't believe anyone's claim to "know" who's going to be elected. The economic numbers are consistently mediocre, the war continues it's downward slide, etc. At this point the Republicans don't have much more to do than to use the weapons they know best: fear and appeals to patriotism. And boy are they ever using 'em....

Eric

The Bad News: The election was lost when the Dems were nice and sportsmanlike in Boston. The R's think nothing of negative ads; saying shameless stuff about the opposition; going for the throat in general. Maybe if the D's are ferocious they'll be able to undo some of the damage; but they look like deer in the headlights to me. First rule of politics: define your opponent in the mind of the US public; done, I'm afraid. Second: destroy him with third-party ads (Swift Boats etc.). It's over. Plus, the R's have succeeded in defining the modern debate in Neocon terms. Try and run as a true, honorable liberal, and you get destroyed by the TV punditocracy before you ever get a chance to campaign.

The Good News: I'm almost never right when I try and predict election outcomes. Where's Pres. Dole?

unrelated: Hey Ludwig, I have the worst case of Audio Nervosa anyone's ever seen: I've always felt smug about not being addictive (other than coffee), no problem with drugs or strong drink; but show me a new amp/CD player combo or sexy new speakers and I get the shakes. Be glad you're off that merry-go-round, and enjoy your Creek stuff.

[This message was edited by bhazen on Fri 03 September 2004 at 5:37.]

Ludwig,
I'm not so sure anymore. Prior to this convention I was convinced that the Pubs were going to run away with it - particularly after the whispers of earlier this week that some of the upper Dems were shopping for new campaign people. However, a number of things have conspired to have me re-evaluate that notion. First, although I think the speeches by Miller and Cheney were "devestating" they included not one word about the economy, jobs, oil prices or the progress of the war/peace in Iraq (other than the blanket statement that it was a good idea). Job info over the last week (including losses in MI at GM and Ford, which WILL ripple through Ohio) point to softness ofr Bush in Michigan and Ohio, two important states. Moreover, I think we also had some lousy numbers today along the oil price front as well.

If the economy does not improve over the next 60 days (and I don't think it will - in fact, i think it is going to get worse), Bush is in a shit-bag. I think even some of his "base" is going to go soft on him at the 11th hour if things don't start to look up. Lower-middle class Joe-Republican of central Missouri can only get so much milage out of the warm and fuzzies he gets from loving christ and hating gays if he's not working a regular job. The bibble belt gotta eat too. The KKK need cheap statins also.

Secondly, the "bad cops" spent 95% of their time talking about Kerry and only 5% of their time talking about Bush. I think this is counterproductive in a re-election bid because the issue is not whether Kerry is "fit" but whether Bush should be kept on. I believe in this whole "referrendum on the incumbant" notion, and if you don't talk about the incumband, you can't win this issue. If 51% feel that Bush is doing a poor job, it doesn't matter if 60% hate Kerry. No incumbant has EVER won a re-election with approval numbers below 45%. Today's numbers show Bush at something like 43% approval.

Third, Bush is weak on the nuclear issue. I think most Americans see the Iran/NK issue as essentially an issue of dimplomacy and not "military". Bush has no diplomatic cards left because he can't get along with his neighbors. I think people who care about the Iran/NK issue will look to kerry to solve it.

I have two major concerns. First, the republicans have the power to, essentially, "bribe" the lower-middle class to vote for them. Why? Because they control spending. We saw a bit of that in his speech tonight. It doesn't cost "good cop" a dime to promise every interest group under the son every entitlement he can think of. We saw it with the immigration amnesty "hand-out" and we're going to see it again over the next 60 days. Trust me - the folks down in Florida are going to get the largest post-hurricane recovery bill the country has EVER seen. That's vote buying pure and simple. I wouldn't be shocked to see Bush tap the strategic oil reserve in the weeks leading up the election (something he said he would never do for price control) in order to knock 40 cents a gallon off the bottom-line (or, for instance, congress could cut taxes on gas to accomplish much the same - a "gift" to the American people).

My second concern is the voting machines. I genuinely worried about this issue. The people in Florida are hyperventilating (except the so-called "liberal" mainstream press who seem to be ignoring it wholesale). I think the "vote counting" machinery in FL has the potential and inclination to be corrupt - corruption designed to deliver FL to Bush. I would not put it past them - I would not have put it past Kathryn Harris were she still in that position and I don't put it past her replacement and all the other goons with their "purge lists", etc.

Overall, I think the economy is going to turn out to be a shitbag for Bush over the next 60 days and I think Kerry is going to push that issue hard. I'm expecting a 7 point swing in 30 days.

Of course, as always, there's a good chance I'm 100% wrong.

Judd
PS. You've heard that somebody inside 10 Downing is quietly saying that TB is pulling for Kerry. This can only be good news for him. I think Americans really like TB.

I'm very pessimistic at the moment. Kerry and Edwards need to come out swinging and fast. Hit Bush where it hurts; that is, continue to ask the question 'Are you better off now than 4 years ago?' The economy is still number one on peoples minds, and I think the Dems can make ground on this. Why not ask if Bush's tax cuts to the wealthiest have benefited the middle class? Aside from that, why not put the same kind of scrutiny on Bush's war 'service'. And why does no one point out that Bush was a total slacker as President (how may vacation days did he take?). Just run an ad. whith the 'now watch this drive' clip over and over. And Bush is talking of messing with social security -- that has to make people nervous. I'm still dumbfounded the polls are this close. What the hell is wrong?

Dan

You may not approve of Bush but you have to admit he sticks to his guns and you get what you see.

Kerry just waffles and changes his stance to suit to whoever he is talking to at the time.

The democratic process will decide the outcome.

Regards

Mick

quote:

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You may not approve of Bush but you have to admit he sticks to his guns and you get what you see.

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Actually Mick I don't think I could disagree more. The recently-resurrected blather about "compassionate conservativism" was not something we "saw" at all, although we heard about it.

Bush's waffling about the rationale for the Iraq war and the "winability" of the war on terror are only some of the more blatant examples of the inconsistencies of his administration.

Not sure what examples of waffling from Kerry you have in mind....

I hear that Clinton has gone in for a quadruple bypass heart operation. I wish him well.

This will generate much public support. Maybe if he comes out swinging for the Dems ...

Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music

This is a pretty pointless discussion. The American people will decide the outcome and we have to respect their decision.

Regards

Mick

I've counted at least five Americans on this thread, ejl, Ludwig, Dan M, bhazen and Judd who all want Kerry to win.

And the only support for Bush is from....

a solitary Brit - Mick of course! Who else?!

JonR

Jon

I spent 3 weeks in the USA as well as on a cruiser and I reckon 95% of the Americans that I spoke to supported Bush.

You should know by now, these forums tend to attract people who enjoy criticising their governments.

We will await the American peoples decision and allow democracy to run its course.

Regards

Mick

quote:

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This is a pretty pointless discussion. The American people will decide the outcome and we have to respect their decision.

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Mick,
It's always been my understanding that a properly functioning democracy requires that participants engage in debate and defend their views. That's what separates democracy from disputes about taste, such as Coke vs. Pepsi, or 102 vs. 72.

So in the spirit of democracy, I maintain that the net loss of 1.2m jobs, all-time record budget deficits, near-record federal spending, a dramatic increase in poverty, a questionable war fought with no exit strategy, damaged international relations, a destabilized oil supply, a weak economy despite record tax cuts, a failed educational reform program, and a host of sins of omission make Bush ill-suited for re-election.

Doubtless you have good reasons for claiming that these failings are either not so bad, or are outweighed by good things this admin. has accomplished, and that you can tell us about.

As a true democrat, I eagerly await your well-reasoned reply.

Eric

quote:

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Originally posted by ejl:
...I maintain that the net loss of 1.2m jobs, all-time record budget deficits, near-record federal spending, a dramatic increase in poverty, a questionable war fought with no exit strategy, damaged international relations, a destabilized oil supply, a weak economy despite record tax cuts, a failed educational reform program, and a host of sins of omission make Bush ill-suited for re-election.

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but apart from that ...

Steve Margolis
defy convention - make music

quote:

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Originally posted by ejl:
[QUOTE]That's what separates democracy from disputes about taste, such as Coke vs. Pepsi, or 102 vs. 72.

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As a partisan "Olive" man, I say 72 all the way! Four more years! Four more years!!

quote:

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Originally posted by Mick Parry:
I spent 3 weeks in the USA as well as on a cruiser and I reckon 95% of the Americans that I spoke to supported Bush.

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You went on a cruise with the NRA and Christian Coalition? Talk about bad luck.

When I was making frequent trips to Landstuhl, Germany back in 2003, just prior to the start of the Iraq war I'd say that 95% of the Americans I met (and they constituted roughly two-thirds of the local population) supported Bush.

100% of them were in the military...



Regards,

Steve.