US presidential election predictions - no contest

Yes, I am indeed. Thank you.

A career in politics beckons...

Please do not be so offensive and sarcastic, honestly would you think you are smarter than these guys? 

Because the next President of the USA has it in his power to start WW III.

Otherwise it is no more interesting than who is the next President of say Poland or Germany.

ATB from George

Dunno. Never met them. When did I say I was?

Nothing wrong with being sarcastic, and I certainly wasn't being offensive.

If you really don't know why America is so powerful and pre-eminent in the world I suggest you start brushing up on your reading a bit. And stop being so silly.

Those questions are actually meant for you, Kevin-W

I am American and I live here so of course I know.

Sorry, even someone as brilliantly clever as me slips up every now and again - that was a typo. They occur reasonably frequently on forums/fora like this one.

I know Regan was a character in The Exorcist, not the 4oth President of the United States.

Is this not rather more significant than member bating?

ATB from George

My apologies, tempers / tensions rising high when things are getting so close.

Well if you know why are you asking me then?

I can't believe anyone doesn't see that either of these guys are taking orders and the net-net will be the same; the president doesn't have the power to start WW III; he has the position of being the front man for those who want WW III.  Obama has largely been Bush on steroids - it's all a f*cking joke.  TPTB don't care who wins - they own both of them.

I would vote for Obama, not because he did a steller job, but the alternative seems much worse.

Agreed.

This is why it doesn't freaking matter:

The entire world seems fixated on this belief that it actually matters who becomes the President of the United States anymore... or that one of these two guys is going to 'fix' things.

Fact is, it doesn't matter. Not one bit. And I'll show you mathematically:

1) When the US federal government spends money, expenses are officially categorized in three different ways.

Discretionary spending includes nearly everything we think of related to government-- the US military, Air Force One, the Department of Homeland Security, TSA agents who sexually assault passengers, etc.

Mandatory spending includes entitlements like Medicare, Social Security, VA benefits, etc. which are REQUIRED by law to be paid.

The final category is interest on the debt. It is non-negotiable.

Mandatory spending and debt interest go out the door automatically. It's like having your mortgage payment auto-drafted from your bank account-- Congress doesn't even see the money, it's automatically deducted.

2) With the rise of baby boomer entitlements and steady increase in overall debt levels, mandatory spending and interest payments have exploded in recent years. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office predicted in 2010 that the US government's TOTAL revenue would be exceeded by mandatory spending and interest expense within 15-years.

That's a scary thought. Except it happened the very next year.

3) In Fiscal Year 2011, the federal government collected $2.303 trillion in tax revenue. Interest on the debt that year totaled $454.4 billion, and mandatory spending totaled $2,025 billion. In sum, mandatory spending plus debt interest totaled $2.479 trillion... exceeding total revenue by $176.4 billion.

For Fiscal Year 2012 which just ended 37 days ago, that shortfall increased 43% to $251.8 billion.

In other words, they could cut the entirety of the Federal Government's discretionary budget-- no more military, SEC, FBI, EPA, TSA, DHS, IRS, etc.-- and they would still be in the hole by a quarter of a trillion dollars.

4) Raising taxes won't help. Since the end of World War II, tax receipts in the US have averaged 17.7% of GDP in a very tight range. The low has been 14.4% of GDP, and the high has been 20.6% of GDP.

During that period, however, tax rates have been all over the board. Individual rates have ranged from 10% to 91%. Corporate rates from 15% to 53%. Gift taxes, estate taxes, etc. have all varied. And yet, total tax revenue has stayed nearly constant at 17.7% of GDP.

It doesn't matter how much they increase tax rates-- they won't collect any more money.

5) GDP growth prospects are tepid at best. Facing so many headwinds like quickening inflation, an enormous debt load, and debilitating regulatory burdens, the US economy is barely keeping pace with population growth.

6) The only thing registering any meaningful growth in the US is the national debt. It took over 200 years for the US government to accumulate its first trillion dollars in debt. It took just 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion (from $15 trillion to $16 trillion).

Last month alone, the first full month of Fiscal Year 2013, the US government accumulated nearly $200 billion in new debt-- 20% of the way to a fresh trillion in just 31 days.

7) Not to mention, the numbers will only continue to get worse. 10,000 people each day begin receiving mandatory entitlements. Fewer people remain behind to pay into the system. The debt keeps rising, and interest payments will continue rising.

8) Curiously, a series of polls taken by ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal show that while 80% of Americans are concerned about the debt, roughly the same amount (78%) oppose cutbacks to mandatory entitlements like Medicare.

9) Bottom line, the US government is legally bound to spend more money on mandatory entitlements and interest than it can raise in tax revenue. It won't make a difference how high they raise taxes, or even if they cut everything else that remains in government as we know it.

This is not a political problem, it's a mathematical one. Facts are facts, no matter how uncomfortable they may be. Today's election is merely a choice of who is going to captain the sinking Titanic.

paranoid much?

No - just have my eyes open.  Keep drinking that mango flavored Kool-Aid.

Seen any bankers go to jail under either party's regime?

They mean you & yours harm too - the difference is I eschew this typical response:

I am not a betting person but have £2,000 on OB to stay in office.

Put the bet on as soon as Mitt was picked for the job months ago with a few friends all putting the same into the pot.

There is over £20,000 in the pot spread, so he better bloody pull it off.

I want my DR'd 552 by Christmas.

Stu.

Christmas has just come early Stu. We have a winner.

Obama has won reelection! Thanks God.

Don't blame God for this mess. 

Obama had it sewn up from the beginning.  Never in doubt when you look at it objectively.  (Although I thought he would win by more than he will.)

He would of course concede because it is a clear win.

Only two presidents in my lifetime have given me hope; Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.  It's still there with Obama, but nowhere near the level it was four years ago.  I hope for my children's sake that things get better here in the US.  The divisive politics here are just dreadful.