MH370 - When is it enough?

Dear Winki,

I don't know the answer to your question, but I'd think that when the black boxes stop sending out the finder signal, if no wreckage has been found that would allow for a narrowing of the search area for the black boxes, then it will probably be scaled right back or abandoned altogether.

So long as some wreckage may be searched out within the life of the black box senders, I would expect considerable effort to continue to be put into the search effort.

ATB from George

Although there is now no hope for the passengers and crew I guess their relatives will understandably crave certainty.  Moreover I should expect the authorities, aircraft operators and manufacturers to want to properly understand what caused this tragedy.  If it was pilot error (as opposed to mental breakdown or suicide) they will want to know what caused the error. They will certainly want to identify any mechanical failure, least it could affect other 777s.  So even though the battery in the black box seemingly stops transmitting after 30 days I suspect the search for the wreckage and 'answers' will continue.  Is it worth it? If I were about to fly on a 777 I think I might say yes.  

MDS 

Of equal concern to the mehanicals is the release of information early on confirming that 40% of passengers don't have their passport checked against the stolen passports database.

http://america.aljazeera.com/a...tsmustbechecked.html

Q: Who is that sat next to you?

A: No-one knows!

I don't really buy into the argument that we must find out what caused the incident to further improve air safety. Air travel is already incredibly safe. The 777 is one of the very safest aircraft ever built (flew on one yesterday). One more unexplained aviation incident wouldn't change that. 

At some point (already long since passed, IMO) the number of lives that potentially might be saved is much, much lower than the number that could be saved by spending on humanitarian causes such as the eradication of diseases in developing countries.

I don't consider the risk due to the lack of checking of passports to be a significant finding. Has a no-fly list ever really achieved anything except inconvenience those inadvertently caught in the drag net?

It took over 20 months of combing the atlantic before the Brazil Air France Airbus flight recorders were recovered. Operators and manufacturers are very serious about safety. The acoustic beacon has 30 days plus of power and the Recorder itself 200 milliseconds minimum post aircraft supply failure. When I worked in Avionics I cannot recall a single confirmed accident that did not yield up it's box (even if the data itself was of no value or irretrievable) The need for answers will override the difficulty in finding the recorder.

Why wouldn't they be as interested in mental breakdown and suicidal behaviour of pilots?

I wouldn't be worried about the airline industry. It would take a lot more than that for people to not fly.

I'm sure they would, Winky, but I guess that is most profitably pursued with the pilot's previous medical history and interviewing friends and family. Finding his body won't help.   

True enough. Point well made.

Because error can be combated by training, conditions can be simulated that we're not previously foreseen. Unfortunately breakdown and suicide cannot be 'trained' away. As for the operator and manufacturer they are bound to search as corporate manslaughter charges are filed nowadays as a matter of course.

I thought of starting a post on that incident and one of the reason I didn't was because, if the experts would hold vital clues until made available, people here would feed this forum with all sortts of theories like a plague... and there are enough of this on tv and on the net!  But, here we go...

Is that intended to be a que for sniper, Tony?

Nope, just my two-pence thought on the subject! 

I hope it doesn't descend into theories. My intent was a discussion on trade-offs in a world populated by emotional and irrational people.

I know you have the best of intentions,  Winky. Let's hope it does not turn into a farce like the original search and theories.

ATB

Tony

Well, I think it's important that every effort is made to try and establish the cause of the failure.  The plane was said to have lithium ion batteries on board - these have caused several problems in recent years.

There are many of these planes, so if there was a mechanical or electrical problem causing the failure, it is important to know what that is to check other planes do not have the same potential problem developing.

Each plane carries hundreds of passengers, so whilst you may argue that one plane in isolation does not represent a hugely significant number, a few more similar incidents would have a massive impact.

Business comes into play - the airline industry generally and Boeing in particular will be very keen to establish no fundamental problem exists.

Insurance industry may well have their interests leading some aspects of investigations to establish liabilities.

Nations play another large role in this - Malaysia and their national airline have pressures to establish they played no part in this; and China (due to significant numbers of their nationals on board) will be duty bound to be seen to find out what happened to them and ensure no cover ups.

I am sure there will be any other number of reasons compelling the authorities to continue seeking to find an answer to this terrible incident.

Peter

I guess my initial question is in relation to what we mean by "every effort". It's easy to say, but what do we really mean? Should we spend $100M, $1Bn, $100Bn, a trillion or whatever? When do the returns not justify the expense?

Are these dollars that would better be spent modernizing healthcare facilities in developing nations? Perhaps better spent retiring some old coal-fired power stations that are killing people daily through air pollution?

http://www.businessweek.com/ar...the-epic-search-cost

"A full public accounting will likely wait until a definitive outcome, since no one involved wants to appear callous or insensitive. The clearest comparison in terms of expense might come from the two-year search for debris, victims, and flight data recorders after the 2009 crash of an Air France flight into the Atlantic Ocean, which cost more than $40 million. The number of nations involved in the current search far exceeds the hunt for Air France Flight 447, led by France and Brazil in waters deeper than 15,000 feet."

One of the big differences in this case (when compared to the Air France disaster) is that they knew where that plane was. In this case, they don't.

I think you are driving at a fascinating point, for though we like to think that a human life is priceless, there is actually always a price put on it in such cases and in many others.

I don't subscribe to the notion that a life is priceless. It is everyone's choice to fly in an aeroplane or walk or stay at home with the various risks involved. When I die, I hope that there is no expensive investigation as to why and how!

ATB from George

Dear George, 

Something has change since your unfortunate incident with the Carlton a few years ago. 

It must have had a truly great impact on the way you get on with your day  to day dealing with normal activities.  I sense a little cynicism I did not realise that until now!

KR

Tony

Sometimes the discussion gets around to the issue of providing "closure" to the families. Try this thought experiment.....

Let's say that there was another $300m to be spent (I think that's very conservative). Get the families to vote - Continue the search and spend the money (with no guaranteed result); or divide the $300m evenly between them. It's about $1m each. Would that provide the "closure" they need? Which way would they vote? The money won't bring their loved ones back either way.

In practice time heals, and the money might transform their lives. Many would vote to receive the money, I suspect, and time will do the rest.

Though time heals, it never removes the scar tissue - the sudden memory. 

ATB from George

I don't know the answer to Winky's question but I've just heard on R3 news that there's now a ship in the area towing a black box detector that's capable of finding a black box at a depth of four miles.

Chris