MH370 - When is it enough?

Posted by: winkyincanada on 29 March 2014

Any views on how much longer the search should go on in the absence of confirmed debris or new information?

 

What if they find confirmed debris? How long should they spend then looking for the "black box" and recovering wreckage?

 

I'm not sure what the rolling-total cost is, but at some point, isn't it better to spend the money on something else?

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by Don Atkinson
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:

 

Justice, revenge, whatever you want to call it. Might make us feel good but would not make one iota of difference to the risk of future attacks; which would remain absolutely and utterly trivial in relative terms.

That statement could be applied equally to the next cyclist fatality following a collision with a motor vehicle. I don't agree with that sort of viewpoint.

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by Jota
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by TomK:

People need to know what's happened. It's human nature. The money spent is peanuts in the overall scale of things and may help bring closure to those involved and also add to the sum of our knowledge.

Please take off your "I'm a complete tit" hat for just a moment.

I don't need to know. I just don't care. It makes no difference. Hat firmly in place.

 

But what have you got to do with this accident?  Nothing.  It's not your family that's missing.  It's not your employees that were piloting it.  It's not your company that serviced it.  It's not your company that built it.  It's not your company that's insured it. It's not you that may be facing a law suit therefore you do not need answers. 

 

Others however, do.

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Jota:
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by TomK:

People need to know what's happened. It's human nature. The money spent is peanuts in the overall scale of things and may help bring closure to those involved and also add to the sum of our knowledge.

Please take off your "I'm a complete tit" hat for just a moment.

I don't need to know. I just don't care. It makes no difference. Hat firmly in place.

 

But what have you got to do with this accident?  Nothing.  It's not your family that's missing.  It's not your employees that were piloting it.  It's not your company that serviced it.  It's not your company that built it.  It's not your company that's insured it. It's not you that may be facing a law suit therefore you do not need answers. 

 

Others however, do.

Well, exactly, with repect to the first point.

 

But "others" don't "need" any such thing. Information about why the plane disappeared and crashed may result in a different outcomes with respect to compensation and penalties and who pays, and who goes to jail, but it won't bring back loved ones. And it won't make a significant difference to future air travel safety outcomes.

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:

 

Justice, revenge, whatever you want to call it. Might make us feel good but would not make one iota of difference to the risk of future attacks; which would remain absolutely and utterly trivial in relative terms.

That statement could be applied equally to the next cyclist fatality following a collision with a motor vehicle. I don't agree with that sort of viewpoint.

My point has always been that the findings and outcomes associated with this single accident, probably won't make much difference (same as a single cyclist being run down). I'm not saying that we shouldn't generally have investigation, justice and revenge as a key part of our system (we do), but just that in this case (MH370) it may simply be too expensive to achieve. The money could save more lives elsewhere.

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by Don Atkinson

Its the "...too expensive to achieve" bit.

 

That's your point of view. The politicians are making that call on behalf of society as a whole (ok, and for the maximum vote impact as well), which includes the families of the 6 Australians, and c.150 Chineese et al.

 

Its a difficult call.

 

 

Posted on: 29 April 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

Its the "...too expensive to achieve" bit.

 

That's your point of view. The politicians are making that call on behalf of society as a whole (ok, and for the maximum vote impact as well), which includes the families of the 6 Australians, and c.150 Chineese et al.

 

Its a difficult call.

 

 

It is indeed a difficult call. But one that will eventually be made. The money  is now just being spent to "save face" and buy votes. When the politicians believe that the public thinks that it is too expensive, it will be called off.

Posted on: 01 May 2014 by winkyincanada

http://www.smh.com.au/world/se...-20140501-zr2vn.html

 

I was surprised to learn that the families of the deceased were still in hotels. I can't imagine what good that did anybody. Would they not be better-off at home with the support of family and friends?

Posted on: 03 May 2014 by Don Atkinson

looks like the authorities in NE Afghanistan have a different perspective than Malaya, China and Australia

Posted on: 03 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

Looks like the authorities in NE Afghanistan have a different perspective than Malaya, China and Australia

Yes, that is indeed a terrible tragedy. Imagine the good that could be done for those left behind with the money being spent looking for MH370.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by MDS

But the tragedy in Afghanistan is clearly one caused by nature (even the most imaginative conspiracy theorist couldn't pin that one on the CIA, surely?) so the appetite to understand the cause of MH370's demise remains. 

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by winkyincanada

The tragedy in Afghanistan wasn't caused by nature any more than airliners are crashed by gravity. The flawed decision was to build a village under a potentially unstable slope.

 

In other news, the search continues...

 

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-...-20140505-zr4r7.html

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by Exiled Highlander

Winky,

 

....The flawed decision was to build a village under a potentially unstable slope.

 

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I can't believe they didn't think to  get a full ground survey or even a comprehensive risk assessment done before building in a narrow valley.  

 

Jim

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Exiled Highlander:

Winky,

 

....The flawed decision was to build a village under a potentially unstable slope.

 

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I can't believe they didn't think to  get a full ground survey or even a comprehensive risk assessment done before building in a narrow valley.  

 

Jim

That comment is obviously exaggerated for effect. I wasn't judging anyone by calling it a "flawed decision". It was flawed due to lack of information and resources; not flawed by some cavalier approach to village location.

 

Yes, evidentially, a proper assessment of geotechnical risks is was not part of any planning process (if indeed any planning was undertaken at all) in this case. However, consider what the hundreds of millions of dollars being "wasted" on the search for MH370 could do to reduce the future risks to this and to other villages, and to help rebuild the lives shattered by these tragedies.

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by Don Atkinson

Winky, you could probably raise the same number of $$ in Canada by adding about 10 cents a day to each taxpayer for a year. But i'm not sure what a submarine would do in NE Afghanistan.

 

 

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by Don Atkinson

...and talking of landslips that wipe out villages, Frank and Turtle Mountain come to mind.........

 

sometimes its just bad luck,

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

...and talking of landslips that wipe out villages, Frank and Turtle Mountain come to mind.........

 

sometimes its just bad luck,

The odds of which can be shifted significantly by doing some analysis and making some decisions that reduce risk. The company I work for does a lot of geotechnical characterisation work, including slope-stability analysis. This is an advanced field of engineering, not some random guesswork.

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by MDS
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

...and talking of landslips that wipe out villages, Frank and Turtle Mountain come to mind.........

 

sometimes its just bad luck,

The odds of which can be shifted significantly by doing some analysis and making some decisions that reduce risk. The company I work for does a lot of geotechnical characterisation work, including slope-stability analysis. This is an advanced field of engineering, not some random guesswork.

winky - I suspect the poor villagers and builders of the Afghan village affected wouldn't have had available to them the sophisticated expertise that you are referring to.  We in the developed West probably take such expertise for granted.  

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by MDS:
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

...and talking of landslips that wipe out villages, Frank and Turtle Mountain come to mind.........

 

sometimes its just bad luck,

The odds of which can be shifted significantly by doing some analysis and making some decisions that reduce risk. The company I work for does a lot of geotechnical characterisation work, including slope-stability analysis. This is an advanced field of engineering, not some random guesswork.

winky - I suspect the poor villagers and builders of the Afghan village affected wouldn't have had available to them the sophisticated expertise that you are referring to.  We in the developed West probably take such expertise for granted.  

That's exactly my point. There are lives that can be saved by investment in this (and many other things). A lot of these things are far better value-for-money than p!$$!n& around in the ocean looking for an aeroplane that will likely never be found.

Posted on: 05 May 2014 by Jota
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by MDS:
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:

...and talking of landslips that wipe out villages, Frank and Turtle Mountain come to mind.........

 

sometimes its just bad luck,

The odds of which can be shifted significantly by doing some analysis and making some decisions that reduce risk. The company I work for does a lot of geotechnical characterisation work, including slope-stability analysis. This is an advanced field of engineering, not some random guesswork.

winky - I suspect the poor villagers and builders of the Afghan village affected wouldn't have had available to them the sophisticated expertise that you are referring to.  We in the developed West probably take such expertise for granted.  

That's exactly my point. There are lives that can be saved by investment in this (and many other things). A lot of these things are far better value-for-money than p!$$!n& around in the ocean looking for an aeroplane that will likely never be found.

 

You can probably save a life in Africa for around about a pound.  By the time I log on tomorrow you better have saved a small village! 

Posted on: 06 May 2014 by Don Atkinson
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:

That's exactly my point. There are lives that can be saved by investment in this (and many other things). A lot of these things are far better value-for-money than p!$$!n& around in the ocean looking for an aeroplane that will likely never be found.

I am aware of a number of significant differences in the English language as used in the UK/USA/Canada/Australia etc etc. "Likely" instead of "probably"  or "possibly" has only come to my attention recently. It is used extensively in the recently published investigation report into the First Air crash at Resolute in August 2011.

Is it a direct equivalent of the word "probably" ? Or does its use imply a probability somewhere between "probable" and "possible", (but higher than 50%), or what ? 

Posted on: 06 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:

That's exactly my point. There are lives that can be saved by investment in this (and many other things). A lot of these things are far better value-for-money than p!$$!n& around in the ocean looking for an aeroplane that will likely never be found.

I am aware of a number of significant differences in the English language as used in the UK/USA/Canada/Australia etc etc. "Likely" instead of "probably"  or "possibly" has only come to my attention recently. It is used extensively in the recently published investigation report into the First Air crash at Resolute in August 2011.

Is it a direct equivalent of the word "probably" ? Or does its use imply a probability somewhere between "probable" and "possible", (but higher than 50%), or what ? 

Likely = Probably. That is greater than 50%.  But I should have said it it will "almost certainly" never be found.

Posted on: 06 May 2014 by winkyincanada

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/s...-20140424-375l8.html

 

"The stupid" is washing over us as a species.

Posted on: 19 May 2014 by rodwsmith

I'm beginning to come around to Winky's way of thinking.

 

Millions upon millions searching for a plane full of dead people whose location is unknown. Continuing after two months.

 

A few thousand dollars spent on looking for four sailors, who might very well be alive, and whose location was known. Stopped after two days.

Posted on: 19 May 2014 by winkyincanada
Originally Posted by rodwsmith:

I'm beginning to come around to Winky's way of thinking.

 

Millions upon millions searching for a plane full of dead people whose location is unknown. Continuing after two months.

 

A few thousand dollars spent on looking for four sailors, who might very well be alive, and whose location was known. Stopped after two days.

I just read about that. On face value, the notion that they would have had time to get into the liferaft seems plausible. Presumably an EPIRB hasn't been activated.

Posted on: 19 May 2014 by hafler3o
Originally Posted by winkyincanada:

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/s...-20140424-375l8.html

 

"The stupid" is washing over us as a species.

"... and that the plane kept flying and flying until it glided under the waves into the arms of the mermaids." Ahh...!