Independent Scotland

Posted by: backfromoz on 25 April 2014

Dear all ,

 

I was discussing some of the potential outcomes for when Scotland votes Yes for Independence with friends over a coffee this morning.

 

They Vote Yes.

 

They leave the United Kingdom

They leave the EU

They lose the pound

 

So would a formal border have to be erected at Hadrians Wall as Scotland would be a Sovereign nation outside of the EU so its citizens would not have free movement into a EU country such as England????

 

Would they have to apply for a travel or business visa to visit the United Kingdom and any other European Union Country?

 

Also what money would they bring with them ? As it will be neither the Pound or Euro?

 

Would I lose my rights to my ancestral home (Council House) in Trinity Edinburgh?

 

HMMMM

 

David

 

 

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by GraemeH
Originally Posted by George J:

If Scotland want to go,....

 

We don't.

 

G

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by Mike-B

It seems the UK Pound will become a negotiation as far as Salmond is concerned,  but I fear he has set his stall out to keep the pound despite that the BoE & Westminster have said NO. Is this political bravado & what’s his backup plan if he does not get to keep it or how/what will be the cost to Scotland be. 

I am waiting for someone to make it clear how the defence & military stuff is planned to be for the resized UK if Scotland say Yes.

The Faslane sub base aside,  which Salmond has made clear will be required to close to make Scotland nuke free; what about the rest of the military? The RAF bases, the other navy bases, the army regiments etc. I assume (hope) UK has already made contingency plans to withdraw all its assets from Scotland.

Then what about defence procurement, will the UK buy from a foreign country – thinking BAe systems. 

Then assuming UK defence assets will pull back to its own boarders, how will an independent Scotland’s defence work.

Then we have the other shared systems - national grid – roads - rail – water - phone etc.

I would hope Cameron also has contingency plans ready for all this when Scotland vote Yes as I don’t see the resized UK citizens being too happy with Scotland getting all this without some kind of cost sharing. 

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by Jota
Originally Posted by BigH47:

If it's about western politics then you can bet the driving force is a very few people will make shed loads of money out of it.

It seems that is the only driver these days.

 

It's about social policy as opposed to selfish Westminster style policies.

 

Originally Posted by Char Wallah:

Scotland will get bumped out of the EU if it leaves the UK, catch22. Cameron has no intention of leaving the EU. There is no difference in principle between Farage and Salmond.

 

and if that happens Scotland will apply to join the EU and it matters not a jot what dodgy Dave wants if he puts it to a vote.  That's the point of votes.

 

There is a huge difference between Farage and Salmond.  Salmond is open to Europe while Farage is against.

 

 

Question, when was the last time Scotland got the politics it voted for in the UK elections?

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by Jota
Originally Posted by Mike-B:

It seems the UK Pound will become a negotiation as far as Salmond is concerned,  but I fear he has set his stall out to keep the pound despite that the BoE & Westminster have said NO. Is this political bravado & what’s his backup plan if he does not get to keep it or how/what will be the cost to Scotland be. 

I am waiting for someone to make it clear how the defence & military stuff is planned to be for the resized UK if Scotland say Yes.

The Faslane sub base aside,  which Salmond has made clear will be required to close to make Scotland nuke free; what about the rest of the military? The RAF bases, the other navy bases, the army regiments etc. I assume (hope) UK has already made contingency plans to withdraw all its assets from Scotland.

Then what about defence procurement, will the UK buy from a foreign country – thinking BAe systems. 

Then assuming UK defence assets will pull back to its own boarders, how will an independent Scotland’s defence work.

Then we have the other shared systems - national grid – roads - rail – water - phone etc.

I would hope Cameron also has contingency plans ready for all this when Scotland vote Yes as I don’t see the resized UK citizens being too happy with Scotland getting all this without some kind of cost sharing. 

 

None of this is insurmountable.

 

Scotland is entitled to it's share of military assets that we helped pay for.

 

Where would you like to see the nukes stored should Scotland win independence?  Round your way ok?

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by Mike-B

I know none is insurmountable Jota,  I'm not being hostile or controversial or anti Scotland, I'm just asking questions that I want answers to & so far no one has got close IMO.  

I cannot see or agree to anyway the pound is shared, the last thing we want is a home grown Euro-like fiasco.  The least strong side - whoever that might be - will suffer & I cannot see the other side being happy supporting that.  

I have no problems whatsoever with nuke subs around my way,  but with no deep water ports around the Cotswolds I'm not best placed to say "no probs".

We do have a pretty large nuke related facilities within a 50km radius. The nuke bomb factory at Aldermaston, then we have a strange underground place that no one knows about that stores them & up to a few years ago we had US cruise & electronic warfare air bases.  Then we have a fuel refining facility & 2 research places.  So no I would not be at all concerned about nuke powered subs.   

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by MDS
Originally Posted by Jota:
Originally Posted by BigH47:

 

Originally Posted by Char Wallah:

Scotland will get bumped out of the EU if it leaves the UK, catch22. Cameron has no intention of leaving the EU. There is no difference in principle between Farage and Salmond.

 

and if that happens Scotland will apply to join the EU and it matters not a jot what dodgy Dave wants if he puts it to a vote.  That's the point of votes.

 

 Jota - Scotland's need to apply for EU membership won't be straight-forward. It would require unanimous agreement among all member states. So in theory the UK could scupper the application by voting no. I don't suppose that remotely likely but other member states might be more inclined to do so for their own internal concerns about their regions following a Scottish example, e.g. Spain.

 

On the issue of Sterling, every authoritative view has said an independent Scotlland cant keep the Pound. That includes all three major political parties, the Treasury and BoE.  It doesn't get any more authoritative than that.  

 

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by backfromoz

Jota,

 

You are correct that Scotland will be able to APPLY to join the EU.

 

If it does it will be offered the same terms as Romania, this is if Spain and France do not veto it so as to prevent the Catalans and Basques following Scotland.

 

As for Faslane apparently the Americans have said the subs can move to the east coast of USA and I presume with their missiles. I wonder if the Scots who work there would want to move to the States?

 

What ships will the shipyards build if the UK does not build them in Scotland?

 

Look at all the UK Govt agencies that are in Scotland eg HMRC. Will those workers move to the UK to keep their jobs when they relocate these agencies to UK?

 

How can you be independent if you have a foreign nations currency, have that foreign country set the interest rates that meet the needs of the foreign country and Not Scotlands. There will be no Scottish MP's in Westminster to influence the UK Govt. Also who will be your bank of Last Resort?

 

The best program I have seen on the future of Scotland has been  the 4 programs by Business for Scotland. They show a map for life expectancy in UK. The lowest matches labour areas the highest matches Conservative areas. Odd that the areas with highest state funding have the lowest life expectancy and highest levels of Social welfare dependence.

 

Should Scotland pursue radical Socialist policies it will have to tax the population  at a suitable rate to pay for it.

 

Another topic is that of an International company that does most of its business in Europe will have to be in a EU country. looks like Aberdeen may transfer its wealth to Humberside and East Anglia and its jobs as Scotland will no longer be in EU.

 

I personally wish for Scotland to stay in the Union , however I would wish for Mr Salmond and his friends to shut up with his fanciful Utopian Vision. Scotland has quite substantial Social depravation poverty and ill health and all this while basically being a Socialist govt since devolution. So investing large sums into the problem has made not one jot of difference. So investing more will be unlikely to improve matters.

 

How ever if Scotland does vote yes I will be pleased for Scotland as it will be what the population want.

 

However what happens if after say 5 years they want to come back what then?

 

If I had the vote , which I do not, I would vote yes with my heart and vote NO with my head.

 

Interesting times over the next few   months. I believe it will get a teeny bit nasty between the two camps as time draws near. interesting article in one of the dailies today on what a journalist found on a visit to Scotland to ask how are things going.

 

I wish those Scots who can vote well for their future.

 

David

 

 

 

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by Mike-B

Not so sure about moving the subs to USA,  we have a number of options for other bases around England.  

Faslane is the base for the 4 Vanguard-class subs that make up UK’s nuclear deterrent. The Vanguards are about to start a decommissioning program & are to be replaced by a new design/class known as Successor. Contracts for 2 boats have been awarded to BAE Systems in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria. The question of Trident replacement is a separate subject.

 

The other subs are based elsewhere, mostly (if not all) in Devonport.  These are the so called hunter-killer types designed to find, track, attack & destroy enemy missile submarines as well as surface ships. Additionally they perform a raft of other high tech surveillance functions. We have a fleet of 7 - 5 are the old Trafalgar-class that are being replaced by the new Astute-class & to date have 2 in service.

 

There was some discussion about expanding Faslane & having some of these based there,  but I guess that decision is on hold until some time after September.   

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by jfritzen

It all depends on UKs future in the EU. If the UK decide to leave the EU, Scotland can leave the UK and become an independent member of the EU very soon. The EU wouldn't have to take UK's integrity into consideration because the UK wouldn't be a member any more. The situation is different with Spain/Catalonia because Spain will not leave the EU. 

 

However if the UK decide to stay it would be wise for Scotland to stay too.

Posted on: 26 April 2014 by MDS
Originally Posted by jfritzen:

It all depends on UKs future in the EU. If the UK decide to leave the EU, Scotland can leave the UK and become an independent member of the EU very soon. The EU wouldn't have to take UK's integrity into consideration because the UK wouldn't be a member any more. The situation is different with Spain/Catalonia because Spain will not leave the EU. 

 

However if the UK decide to stay it would be wise for Scotland to stay too.

 

 

I don't think the timing of these work that way. The vote on Scottish independence comes before the possible UK referundum on EU membership the latter being (a) dependent on the 2015 election producing a majority Conservative government and (b) that government honouring what its current leader has promised (as we know, such things are not always axiomatic).

 

The Scottish referendum is about its independence, not about Scotland's continuing membership of the EU. Salmond might wish for independence and continuing EU membership but this is not in his gift.  So, if Scotland votes for independence it could find itself outside the EU before any UK referendum on EU membership.

 

That said, I am hopeful that common sense prevails in the Scottish referendum and, if it ever happens, a UK referendum on continuing EU membership i.e. that Scotland remains part of the UK and the UK remains part of the EU.      

MDS

Posted on: 27 April 2014 by Don Atkinson
Originally Posted by MDS:

 

That said, I am hopeful that common sense prevails in the Scottish referendum and, if it ever happens, a UK referendum on continuing EU membership i.e. that Scotland remains part of the UK and the UK remains part of the EU.      

MDS

+1

 

But when did common sense ever prevail with respect to

  • voters
  • independence
  • the EU

 

Lets hope this time it does !

Posted on: 03 May 2014 by Bananahead

It does seem odd that only Scotland get to vote about separation. A fair amount of the no argument seems to be based on the premise that Scotland is better off as part of the union. Isn't there an argument that suggests that the rump of the UK would be better off without Scotland?

 

Can you imagine marriage laws where only the husband gets to decide if a divorce is wise.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Don Atkinson
Originally Posted by Bananahead:

It does seem odd that only Scotland get to vote about separation. A fair amount of the no argument seems to be based on the premise that Scotland is better off as part of the union. Isn't there an argument that suggests that the rump of the UK would be better off without Scotland?

 

Can you imagine marriage laws where only the husband gets to decide if a divorce is wise.

I don't think that is a good analogy.

 

In many divorce cases, it is only one side that initiates the action, despite pleas from the other.

 

The real acrymony starts to build up when they are dicussing the settlement.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Reginald Halliday

They should let Mel Gibson decide.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Bananahead
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by Bananahead:

It does seem odd that only Scotland get to vote about separation. A fair amount of the no argument seems to be based on the premise that Scotland is better off as part of the union. Isn't there an argument that suggests that the rump of the UK would be better off without Scotland?

 

Can you imagine marriage laws where only the husband gets to decide if a divorce is wise.

I don't think that is a good analogy.

 

In many divorce cases, it is only one side that initiates the action, despite pleas from the other.

 

The real acrymony starts to build up when they are dicussing the settlement.

But that is my point. The referendum should be union wide and multi-faceted. If Scotland want to leave then they can. If the rump wants to throw Scotland out then they can. If Cornwall want to leave then they can...

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by backfromoz

Bananahead,

 

there was a survey done, a small one, that concluded that if England had the vote then it would vote for Scottish Independence.

Same with Wales they would also vote for Scottish independence as they may wish to follow suit.

Not sure about N.I. but it seems to have its own problems at the moment.

And we now have Cornwall being recognised as special.

I imagine here in East Anglia we may wish to be labelled special too.

 

It seems we are all wishing to be smaller these days.

 

Europe has proven that Big is not necessarily beautiful and France and Germany now have issues with the increasing power of Brussles and EU.

 

This is all going to be fun.

 

David

 

 

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Don Atkinson
Originally Posted by Bananahead:
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by Bananahead:

It does seem odd that only Scotland get to vote about separation. A fair amount of the no argument seems to be based on the premise that Scotland is better off as part of the union. Isn't there an argument that suggests that the rump of the UK would be better off without Scotland?

 

Can you imagine marriage laws where only the husband gets to decide if a divorce is wise.

I don't think that is a good analogy.

 

In many divorce cases, it is only one side that initiates the action, despite pleas from the other.

 

The real acrymony starts to build up when they are dicussing the settlement.

But that is my point. The referendum should be union wide and multi-faceted. If Scotland want to leave then they can. If the rump wants to throw Scotland out then they can. If Cornwall want to leave then they can...

.......and if the English vote was that Scotland should remain part of the Union.....but the Scottish side of the vote was to leave?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "multi-faceted"

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Bananahead
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by Bananahead:
Originally Posted by Don Atkinson:
Originally Posted by Bananahead:

It does seem odd that only Scotland get to vote about separation. A fair amount of the no argument seems to be based on the premise that Scotland is better off as part of the union. Isn't there an argument that suggests that the rump of the UK would be better off without Scotland?

 

Can you imagine marriage laws where only the husband gets to decide if a divorce is wise.

I don't think that is a good analogy.

 

In many divorce cases, it is only one side that initiates the action, despite pleas from the other.

 

The real acrymony starts to build up when they are dicussing the settlement.

But that is my point. The referendum should be union wide and multi-faceted. If Scotland want to leave then they can. If the rump wants to throw Scotland out then they can. If Cornwall want to leave then they can...

.......and if the English vote was that Scotland should remain part of the Union.....but the Scottish side of the vote was to leave?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "multi-faceted"

In a divorce either side can decide on separation.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by MDS

If either party wants independence (divorce) then regardless of the other's views that separation happens.  So doesn't this effectively answer the reason why there won't be a referendum in the rest of the UK as to whether Scotland should stay or go? First I'm not aware that there is any ground-swell of view in the rest of the UK that Scotland should be expelled from the Union. Without one it is hard to justify such a referendum. Second, if such a referendum in the rest of the UK were held and the result was to retain Scotland in the Union but in its referendum Scotland voted to leave then the former vote would be otios.  

MDS 

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Exiled Highlander

I think that some of you seem to have forgotten that this is a union of 4 countries, but let's not let facts stand in the of a convenient but misplaced analogy with regard to divorce.  

 

As tempting as it may be for some to want to "expel" Scotland, I would suggest that a read of the Act of Union of 1707 would be a good place to start so you actually understand what the Union is. 

 

Jim

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by MDS
Originally Posted by Exiled Highlander:

I think that some of you seem to have forgotten that this is a union of 4 countries, but let's not let facts stand in the of a convenient but misplaced analogy with regard to divorce.  

 

As tempting as it may be for some to want to "expel" Scotland, I would suggest that a read of the Act of Union of 1707 would be a good place to start so you actually understand what the Union is. 

 

Jim

Jim - please don't misinterpret my recent post. From my earlier posts I hope I have made clear that I very much want Scotland to stay part of the Union. We are stronger together to everyone's benefit.

MDS

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Don Atkinson

Jim,

 

I'm not sure this forum is festooned with people wanting to expel Scotland. Quite the opposite ISTM, most people who have expressed a view seem to hope that Scotland will vote No.

Posted on: 04 May 2014 by Exiled Highlander

Don/MDS

 

All I said was "as tempting as it may be for some...", so hardly implying this forum is festooned of full of people wanting Scotland expelled. I was simply pointing out that most forumites have (I strongly suspect) never had cause or inclination to read or understand the actual Act Or what happens when one member wants to secede. 

 

Cheers

 

Jim