The rise of China

1,392,472,656 People cant be wrong !!

I wonder if China isn't already well on its way to bullying the US in economic terms. Certainly they've done it in cyber attacking terms. Who can compete with China in man hours?

I much preferred it when international bullies where Romans, rampaging Mongol hordes, Napoleon, The British Empire, The USA. (choose according to your era and region etc).

Maybe it is time for the Chinese.

Don't forget to add in the Pandas too.

The continued rise of China is not necessarily a given, or a dead cert. The country faces enormous problems - corruption on a colossal scale, an overly-centralised system, terrible pollution, environmental degredation, an increasingly troublesome Muslim minority, growing disparity between rich and poor (and town and country) and a critical lack of natural resources.

Paradoxically,credit lines are hugely over-stretched while at the same time, large numbers of people sit on their wealth or savings, making the economy illiquid. Those that do invest or spend, do so abroad.

China's armed forces are large, but they are not particularly well equipped, and their tactics and internal structures are woefully out of date. Also, China has not engaged in war since its incursions into South East asia some 35 years ago. They may be a bit rusty! They do, of course have an advantage in sheer numbers but that isn't always enough.

They next 20 or 30 years are going to be very interesting as the US and China jostle for top position, but China has a long way to go yet.

I would not dismiss the rise of China. They are signing large contracts and forming alliances with many countries, as this article about last week's economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia explains...

Asia Times Online :: The future visible in St Petersburg

Whether you like it or not, the rise of the BRICS countries is inevitable, and they don't really care what the OECD/NATO countries think. Food for thought.

BBM

I'll take a different menu. Yes China havesuperficially achieved their 1960's aim to undermine the West in terms of social cohesion (breakdown of the nuclear family), manufacturing base and economics. However, their successes are only possible beacuase of their intricate and inextricable financial ties to the West in terms of trade and investments. The crux of the matter will be the future management of this umbilical cord which demands cooperative symbiosis if it isn't to fail.

I'm more worried about Russia's posturing, but then I remember the cold war only too well. Fuel and water are the aces to play for. One thing is certain, stability isn't!

Loki

China's past success was dependant on the West. They are now looking to form new alliances as the US/EU are mired in excessive debt. The US/NATO attempt to steal Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence has backfired. Russia, Iran, and the Central Asian countries have tremendous energy resources and are now looking eastward to China. Further to this, the BRICS countries are going to start trading in non-US currencies ASAP. This will start the death spiral for the West.

Read the link I posted. I've been reading Escobar for many years, and he is yet to be wrong regarding geopolitics. You also need to read about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The US/UK have been the World bully since the early 90's, but that has not gone so well for them.  

Regards

BBM

I suspect that the current Chinese communist leadership is not that stupid - dragging the country down a dangerous road as Hitler did. I think the their aggressive steps recently is a trick (or gamble) to test the world reactions.

Hitler statement aside, I do think that China is gaging world reactions to their advances. They are in an enviable position to do so. A strong reliance with Russia is key to their energy needs. North Korea is their puppet distraction.

Chaps

The simple truth is that everyone now wants affluence. We all want a large house, holiday home, flash car and watch etc with good public services as a back up.

This applies to the Chinese as well as us and they see the easiest way of achieving that by integrational trade and the global economy.

War gets in the way of making money.

Regards

Mick

That may be true for the peasantry but for the people in control war is the most profitable racket there has ever been.  

Sniper

War used to be profitable in the days when heavy manufacturing was a cash cow.

Today the money is in IT, Financial Services etc.  War screws them up and is counter productive.

Mick

China has two phenomena which scare me--

1) Nationalism seems to work well as a smokescreen to obscure the shortcomings of the Chinese government.

2)  Thanks to abortion and infanticide, there are now some 100,000,000 men in China who will never get laid.

The combination is ominous.

yes, seems very scary.

history seems to repeat itself and it is very ironic - in the early 1900's, japan was the bad guy, and we were sympathetic to china and other asian countries, now china is the bad guy and we fear for japan and other asian countries..

it is the dogs eat dogs situation, and it appears that we never learn from the history.

Why? Are they all nut jobs that only accept sex inside a marriage?