Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

thebigfredc posted:

It looks like Winky has gone. If only it was that easy to get rid of Huge and Don. Anyway, at least Winky will have more time on his hands to drink shit Canadian beer and practice his curling.

No such luck, as I pointed out either earlier or in another thread (I can't be bothered to look through over 4000 posts many of which - particularly posts supporting brexit from people to whom it makes little or no difference - are are sadly lacking in logic)

...

You can't bully me into submission - I have terrier mentality!

Huge posted:

thebigfredc posted:

It looks like Winky has gone. If only it was that easy to get rid of Huge and Don. Anyway, at least Winky will have more time on his hands to drink shit Canadian beer and practice his curling.

No such luck, as I pointed out either earlier or in another thread (I can't be bothered to look through over 4000 posts many of which - particularly posts supporting brexit from people to whom it makes little or no difference - are are sadly lacking in logic)

...

You can't bully me into submission - I have terrier mentality!

Huge, do you feel the same way towards people to whom it did make a difference?  ie. those who voted to leave ! 

Is it reasonable to conclude that logic remains solely in the domain of those who want to remain?

Huge posted:

 - I have terrier mentality!

An accusation commonly levelled at those of us with tenacity and determination, the other lekeness of which I have been accused is a British Bulldog,which may be closer to the mark in all but persistence.

I've opted out of this debate as it's too parochial, but...

We're continually told that we must leave the EU as it's the will of the people. The will of the people is apparently a definitive and immutable position, that the Great British public absolutely desires to leave the EU for any of the numerous and various reasons. That the will of the people was decided by a margin smaller than that required to change the constitution of a Golf Club is neither here nor there, apparently.

This is purely my own experience, but I believe the option to have a subsequent vote on the outcome of the negotiations has a validity. Of the people I know who voted Out and with whom I've had more than a passing discussion over it, their reasons for voting out were:

• to give Cameron a good kicking. Well played there, but you've ended up kicking me full on in the nadgers with your steel toe caps, whilst Cameron drops out of public life and presumably continues to do quite well for himself thank you very much.
• To regain sovereignty. Great. The Queen continues to pass laws into UK statute, just as before. But they won't be largely helpful laws that strive for the common good.
• Because - and I quote - "we didn't know which way to vote, and Out seemed like a good idea at the time. We'd love to have a chance to vote again, properly". 
• The Sun told me to vote Out. Seriously. People I know have said this is what swayed them to the Out side.
• Those who didn't vote. Yes the youth of today are a waste of space who spend 25 hours a day gawping at their sodding phones but the number of them who I've had a pop at for not voting, only to be told that there was no way Out would win so there was no need to vote, is significant. 
• Statistically older people were more in favour of exiting the EU. Simple population change informs us that older people are dying off more quickly than the young, so the balance has swung. 

The point is that the will of the people was a snapshot on June 23rd 2016, driven by lies and deceit. WTF makes that a binding completely irreversible commitment to leaving the EU? We were asked a vague question, with no emphasis on the reality of what Out would mean as no-one knew the answer to that at the time. The most basic requirement left to us as a nation is to be given a follow-up referendum when negotiations are complete and a deal of some kind is on the table. Based on the actuality of the negotiations and the where we then are given the terms on the table; In, or Out?

The will of the people is shifting. It's not some effing game that we win or lose or that we have to suck up the result as one side 'won' and one side 'lost', it's a chuffing calamitous decision based on a mix of political ineptitude on Cameron's part. political stupidity and naivety on the part of some of the electorate, and a misjudgement by the phalanx of the semi-aware yoof of today who aren't alert to Pink Floyd lyrics and how meaningful they turn out to be:

No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun

The will of the people to leave the EU is the will of a minority. The balance that made it up to 52% is a mixture of the properly committed; and the halfwits, idiots and kids who didn't know what it meant. We need a confirmation once the facts and the terms of the deal are known. It has to happen. We can't blunder into this based on a shite campaign in 2016 that didn't address any of the issues we now face. 

Well said CHRISR

Don Atkinson posted:

Sloop John B posted:

Dave***t posted:

 Great Britain as commonly understood doesn't include Northern Ireland,

 

Please explain? 

.sjb

I'm only guessing, but perhaps "The UK" = "GB + NI"        mind you, I don't know, I'm only guessing !

Just goes to show how many of us know so little about our own organisations (me included I hasten to add)

CHRISR posted:

' Of the people I know who voted Out and with whom I've had more than a passing discussion over it, their reasons for voting out were:

• to give Cameron a good kicking. Well played there, but you've ended up kicking me full on in the nadgers with your steel toe caps, whilst Cameron drops out of public life and presumably continues to do quite well for himself thank you very much.
• To regain sovereignty. Great. The Queen continues to pass laws into UK statute, just as before. But they won't be largely helpful laws that strive for the common good.
• Because - and I quote - "we didn't know which way to vote, and Out seemed like a good idea at the time. We'd love to have a chance to vote again, properly". 
• The Sun told me to vote Out. Seriously. People I know have said this is what swayed them to the Out side.
• Those who didn't vote. Yes the youth of today are a waste of space who spend 25 hours a day gawping at their sodding phones but the number of them who I've had a pop at for not voting, only to be told that there was no way Out would win so there was no need to vote, is significant. '

Some observations from me:

You really need to widen your social circle as you seem to be hanging out with some seriously thick people.

You forgot (they forgot) to mention the NHS bus.

 Some people  voted 'remain' for equally ridiculous and ill-informed reasons such as, for example, because they like the Eurovision Song contest or they like going on holiday to Majorca.

Ray

Florestan posted:

Huge posted:

thebigfredc posted:

It looks like Winky has gone. If only it was that easy to get rid of Huge and Don. Anyway, at least Winky will have more time on his hands to drink shit Canadian beer and practice his curling.

No such luck, as I pointed out either earlier or in another thread (I can't be bothered to look through over 4000 posts many of which - particularly posts supporting brexit from people to whom it makes little or no difference - are are sadly lacking in logic)

...

You can't bully me into submission - I have terrier mentality!

Huge, do you feel the same way towards people to whom it did make a difference?  ie. those who voted to leave ! 
I feel it was their right to vote that way.

Is it reasonable to conclude that logic remains solely in the domain of those who want to remain?
No I don't; which is why I didn't say that.

Implying that I came to a particular conclusion when I actually didn't come to that particular conclusion just reinforces my point!

thebigfredc posted:

CHRISR posted:

' Of the people I know who voted Out and with whom I've had more than a passing discussion over it, their reasons for voting out were:

• to give Cameron a good kicking. Well played there, but you've ended up kicking me full on in the nadgers with your steel toe caps, whilst Cameron drops out of public life and presumably continues to do quite well for himself thank you very much.
• To regain sovereignty. Great. The Queen continues to pass laws into UK statute, just as before. But they won't be largely helpful laws that strive for the common good.
• Because - and I quote - "we didn't know which way to vote, and Out seemed like a good idea at the time. We'd love to have a chance to vote again, properly". 
• The Sun told me to vote Out. Seriously. People I know have said this is what swayed them to the Out side.
• Those who didn't vote. Yes the youth of today are a waste of space who spend 25 hours a day gawping at their sodding phones but the number of them who I've had a pop at for not voting, only to be told that there was no way Out would win so there was no need to vote, is significant. '

 

Some observations from me:

You really need to widen your social circle as you seem to be hanging out with some seriously thick people.

You forgot (they forgot) to mention the NHS bus.

 Some people  voted 'remain' for equally ridiculous and ill-informed reasons such as, for example, because they like the Eurovision Song contest or they like going on holiday to Majorca.

Ray

 

Seriously? Is that the best you can do?

Now let’s hear a real reasoned counter-argument, from anyone, as to why, given all the circumstsnces outlined by ChrisR in his post last night and by me in numerous posts a confirmatory referendum is not the only reasonable, wise, sensible and indeed democratic thing to do? For assistance I pull out two of my previous posts below:

Posted at 23:53 on 12th July (UK time):

The strong case is for a confirmatory referendum once the full detail of what Brexit really means is kneow, as opposed to the lies, deceit, guseework, misinformation, bad information, unfounded assumption, media hype etc that was what the majority of people had to go on when the leave/remain referendum was run two years ago. And as I have pointed out many times, if Brexit is confirmed, it will shut the remainers up, and if not, then it will show the Brexiteers that their desire is not the will of the people in the face of the facts. Given all the circumstances, a confirmatory referendum is the only reasonable and wise thing to do - and would truly be democracy at work. What is not to like about it - unless you are a Brexiteer who seriously believes the result would now be the oposite of the original referendum, whence you would be admitting that you actually think democracy is a bad thing

Posted at 08:23 on 13th July: 

And how, exactly, is it in ANY WAY undemocratic calling for confirmation when the facts are known? What I want isn’t material  - I will accept with grace a confirmation now that so much more is known than 2 years ago, even if that is against my personal belief  of what I think is best for the UK. Sadly, it seems you, and at least some others, would not accept that democratic process, thus demonstrating your false claim that leaving, regardless of what that means in practice, is the demonstrated democratic will of the people. It isn’t - all it was was a declaration by a (small) majority of voters that their preference was to leave, inevitably based on the information available at that time, two years ago.

For what it is worth my parents (born 1930 and 1932) voted Leave because they have a deep suspicion (hatred really) of Germany. They felt remaining in the EU would mean being ruled by Germany. They were kids in London during the blitz. I did not feel this was an argument anyone could really debate or challenge.

So reasons for a 'Leave' vote may include rather more than the list above.

Bruce

Innocent Bystander posted:

thebigfredc posted:

...

Some observations from me:

You really need to widen your social circle as you seem to be hanging out with some seriously thick people.

You forgot (they forgot) to mention the NHS bus.

 Some people  voted 'remain' for equally ridiculous and ill-informed reasons such as, for example, because they like the Eurovision Song contest or they like going on holiday to Majorca.

Ray

 

Seriously? Is that the best you can do?

Now let’s hear a real reasoned counter-argument, from anyone, as to why, given all the circumstsnces outlined by ChrisR in his post last night and by me in numerous posts a confirmatory referendum is not the only reasonable, wise, sensible and indeed democratic thing to do?

...

Apparently so... or at least that's the way it appears; (actually I don't think it's the best those on the brexit side can do).

I also would be interested in any such well reasoned counter arguments.

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

For what it is worth my parents (born 1930 and 1932) voted Leave because they have a deep suspicion (hatred really) of Germany. They felt remaining in the EU would mean being ruled by Germany. They were kids in London during the blitz. I did not feel this was an argument anyone could really debate or challenge.

So reasons for a 'Leave' vote may include rather more than the list above.

Bruce

I'm sure ChrisR's list wasn't intended to  be exhaustive, just some of the prime reasons given by friends and acquaintances of his who did vote to leave.

He was merely illustrating that the reasons for wishing to leave were many and varied: from the well considered and structured through those who were misinformed to reactions based on mild xenophobia or other such irrational beliefs.

He also pointed out that this list represents the reasons for wishing to leave at that time and, in some cases, does not represent their current thoughts.

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

For what it is worth my parents (born 1930 and 1932) voted Leave because they have a deep suspicion (hatred really) of Germany. They felt remaining in the EU would mean being ruled by Germany. They were kids in London during the blitz. I did not feel this was an argument anyone could really debate or challenge.

So reasons for a 'Leave' vote may include rather more than the list above.

Bruce

I don’t think ChrisR was suggesting for one moment that those were the only reasons - I read him as saying those were tge reasons given by all the people he knows who voted leave and discussed with him. Indeed, I am sure that of the people who voted leave there were a variety of perfectly valid reasons:  I think his point was that there is good evidence that the vote was not a true reflection of what the public truly wanted - which is in accord with my own experience that everyone I know who voted leave did so not wanting it, but to make a point against the UK Gov of the tine, not for one moment thinking there was the slightest chance of a majority, just wanting the majority to stay not to be as strong as Cameron assumed.

Just a reminder that the referendum according to the serving PM at the time was a once in a generation event to decide once and for all on our relationship with the EU. 

He was complacent and couldn’t imagine a defeat. Likewise many Remainers he failed to articulate the difficulties we would have trying to extricate ourselves from its institutions.

And now you want another go at it, how about best of three, it’s paper scissors stones. 

Ray

thebigfredc posted:

Just a reminder that the referendum according to the serving PM at the time was a once in a generation event to decide once and for all on our relationship with the EU. 

He was complacent and couldn’t imagine a defeat. Likewise many Remainers he failed to articulate the difficulties we would have trying to extricate ourselves from its institutions.

And now you want another go at it, how about best of three, it’s paper scissors stones. 

Ray

When have I said I want another go at it? Please read what I have written. 

The fact that Cameron may have said the referendum was a once in a generation event does not automatically preclude a confirmatory call to the people. (And even if it did, since when has a politician never gone back on anything they may have said?)

Yes Cameron was complacent. That many “remainers” failed to to articulate the difficulties is indeed a fact - but two years ago no-one had delved into the detail of what leaving meant in practice other than not being in the EU (and other than the headline misassumptions, deceit and hype), and no-one had delved into what leaving would actually entail, nor into what would be the real effects on the economy and on people - a referendum was presented with -what was it, 3? 4? months’ notice.

As I did say, no-one has yet advanced any reasoned argument against a confirmatory  referendum now the realities are far clearer. And a confirmatory referendum is far from being a repeat of the original, for all the reasons I’ve already stated, and as I pointed out would show true democracy at work - and give strength to the difficult process of leaving if that is the outcome. 

It is abundantly clear that the reason why people do not want a confirmatory referendum is because they beliece it will go against their personal wishes, and that they fear it because they actually believe the majority would go against them. Now, where is the democracy in that?

“When have I said I want another go at it?”

Erm..confirmatory referendum...ring any bells?

thebigfredc posted:

 

Some observations from me:

You really need to widen your social circle as you seem to be hanging out with some seriously thick people.

You forgot (they forgot) to mention the NHS bus.

 Some people  voted 'remain' for equally ridiculous and ill-informed reasons such as, for example, because they like the Eurovision Song contest or they like going on holiday to Majorca.

Ray

 

Blimey. Welcome to the level of debate. Don't know about you Ray but I didn't choose my in-laws and that extended family based on their intelligence, notwithstanding that their daughter is the stand-out clever one. Lucky me eh? Nor did I choose who to work with and for purely on their Mensa test results. When I was invited to become manager I didn't think to turn it down on the basis that some of the lesser able staff looked like the sort of people who might vote out in some unlikely future referendum on EU membership. Maybe you do have that luxury; congratulations.

It wasn't an exhaustive list; it was a pointer to the simple fact that The Will Of The People is not a massive majority that unites the country; if you take out the stupid reasons for voting and add in the moronic idle student vote - those who acc to my son fresh out of uni are almost unanimous in wanting to remain, the Will Of The People is actually the will of a something like a quarter to a third of the public. And that is the exact point - there is no solid driving uniting force from the country demanding that we leave. It's not the will of the people, it's too many parties refusing to admit that it needs a rethink, now that we all have a much much better awareness of the realities and the consequences of leaving. Yet it's constantly The Will Of The People that's used as The Reason for continuing down this barmy path.

Thanks by the way for making my point for me. Yes, I do mix with some idiots, but not largely through choice. Almost to a man my friends are stayers. But you have hit on the crux of it, that such a massive decision on such complex matters and with such enormous ramifications requires careful thought and consideration. But - by your own admission, see above - too many thick stupid short-sighted people have swayed it. We're facing the most calamitous political decision in generations because people who are too stupid to be allowed a say were given one. 

thebigfredc posted:

“When have I said I want another go at it?”

Erm..confirmatory referendum...ring any bells?

Please wake up!

A confirmatory referendum, now more than two years later, once the whole picture of what Brexit means is clear (unlike at the time of the 2016 referendum), would be a referendum to confirm that people want to go ahead now they know what it entails - not them confirming what they voted for in 2016 -  is far from “another go at it” as you disingenuously suggest, ratger it is purely wisdom before pressing the button on something that few if any envisaged nywhere near fully at the time of indicating a choice in 2016.

thebigfredc posted:

Just a reminder that the referendum according to the serving PM at the time was a once in a generation event to decide once and for all on our relationship with the EU. 

He was complacent and couldn’t imagine a defeat. Likewise many Remainers he failed to articulate the difficulties we would have trying to extricate ourselves from its institutions.

And now you want another go at it, how about best of three, it’s paper scissors stones. 

Ray

And this... It's still some kind of game that one side won and the other lost, acc to some. Cameron was complacent. The level of debate was atrocious - I used to drive to work listening to the 8:10 interview on Today and regularly shouted at the radio during the campaign wishing they'd discuss important points or the bigger picture, not get bogged down in pointless diversionary trivia. But apparently because an atrocious campaign was led by a complacent leader, we just have to accept it? Again no, that's another reason for trying again; armed with much more relevant knowledge and a fuller idea of the realities and the consequences, and knowing now how much we were lied to and misled, how many still stand by the original outcome?

I don't know anyone who now wishes to have voted out having originally voted in. I know plenty who would relish reversing their out vote.

Why not find out what the current 'will of the people' is once the terms of exit are known, before burning our bridges, rather than relying on what it was two years ago, before 'the people' found out the real cost of leaving the EU.

Since the Brexit campaign is supposed to support democracy, then this is an opportunity to show that support, rather than looking backward to a now outdated result that's been overtaken by increasing knowledge and clarity (unless, of course, you believe that democracy is best served by lies and deception).

The answer is abundently clear - simply because those who oppose the idea believe and fear that the current will of the people is contrary to their own personal desires.

For the avoidance of doubt, I voted “Remain” and for the avoidance of further doubt, I would vote again to Remain, based on the information available to me about the prospects of the UK’s future if we remain or if we leave. (“Prospects” covers the whole gambit of issues, not just economic)

Based on conversations with friends and acquaintances, a public meeting convened by my MP, news reports and a variety of small meetings involving discussions about EASA, I am confident that many people who voted Leave, now consider that was a mistake. I have yet to meet anybody who voted Remain who considers they made a mistake.

If the Electorate were given the opportunity now, to vote Remain v Leave, my guess is that Remain would poll significantly more votes than Leave.

If the Electorate is given the opportunity to vote once a Deal has been established, by which time further new facts and projections will have emerged, then the nature of the Deal could well influence the outcome of such a poll.

Would such a poll be Deal v Leave (without the Deal)

Or might it be, as IB has suggested, a confirmation to Leave (with whatever Deal is on the table) v Remain

The real purpose of my above illustrations is to elicit from this (relatively) polite and informed Forum, the Step-by-Step programme of events and actions that will be required in order for the Electorate to be given the opportunity to vote, after negotiations are complete, but before the UK is finally committed to Leave the EU.

For example, I have signed up to a campaign aimed at demanding the Government gives the Electorate a meaningful vote. MPs have been promised a meaningful vote.

What do I have to do, what do you have to do, in order to get a vote, and from my point of view, hopefully put an end to this disastrous episode in our history (by Remaining part of the EU).

Interesting thread this, certain to invite strong opinions. For my part I voted to leave for sovereignty, immigration and cultural reasons. I also didn't like the rascist and xenophobic slurs thrown at Brexiteers for wanting to clamp down on immigration. New Zealand, Australia and Canada are absolutely desperate for healthcare professionals and other skilled migrants but they won't let anyone in unless they have a job to go to and can prove they can support themselves and their families for the duration of their VISAs. Rather than being labelled as rascist and xenophibic they're held-up as beacons of a sensible immigration policy.

Anyway, I'm digressing - the reason for my post is to say I wish I'd voted "remain" and that's because I believe this government has made a God-awful mess of the exit negotiations and we're going to end up in a worse place than we were before. It's scaring the crap out of me and I wish I could go back and vote all over again.

Don Atkinson posted:

 

The real purpose of my above illustrations is to elicit from this (relatively) polite and informed Forum, the Step-by-Step programme of events and actions that will be required in order for the Electorate to be given the opportunity to vote, after negotiations are complete, but before the UK is finally committed to Leave the EU.

For example, I have signed up to a campaign aimed at demanding the Government gives the Electorate a meaningful vote. MPs have been promised a meaningful vote.

What do I have to do, what do you have to do, in order to get a vote, and from my point of view, hopefully put an end to this disastrous episode in our history (by Remaining part of the EU).

I wish I knew, as I’d have been doing it! Unfortunately I don’t even have an MP to lobby.

There was that pressure group trying to get another referendum, “the people’s vote”, with Tony Robinson - I don’t know where they are with it, or whether they have ways for people to help more directly.

Jonners posted:

Interesting thread this, certain to invite strong opinions. For my part I voted to leave for sovereignty, immigration and cultural reasons. I also didn't like the rascist and xenophobic slurs thrown at Brexiteers for wanting to clamp down on immigration. New Zealand, Australia and Canada are absolutely desperate for healthcare professionals and other skilled migrants but they won't let anyone in unless they have a job to go to and can prove they can support themselves and their families for the duration of their VISAs. Rather than being labelled as rascist and xenophibic they're held-up as beacons of a sensible immigration policy.

Anyway, I'm digressing - the reason for my post is to say I wish I'd voted "remain" and that's because I believe this government has made a God-awful mess of the exit negotiations and we're going to end up in a worse place than we were before. It's scaring the crap out of me and I wish I could go back and vote all over again.

Hi Jonners,

Many thanks for your clear reasons for voting one way and now having a change of mind.

Rather depressingly, I have been told by a reliable source (see my post a few pages back) that TM is convinced that the principle issue that drove the referendum outcome was immigration. And worse still, she firmly believes this is still the driving issue for the "floating voter" element of the Referendum AND future general Elections. QED immigration is a vote-winner. Brexit will demonstrate her determination to control immigration and thus secure her future as PM until retirement.

Now, I appreciate that life (and Brexit) is a bit more involved than the above paragraph, but..........

PS note: the Government and Ministers often refer to "controlling" immigration. This is not quite the same as "reducing" immigration, but talking to others, many people don't recognise the difference.