Brexit

I've just woken up to the realisation we've all slept-walked out the the sleepwalk thread...

I'm off to sleep. It's all getting too complicated, a real Brain-Teaser........................

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Agreed, Peter, but those supporting Brexit seem to want to discount that major factor.   

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

I would suggest that the support for Brexit includes many of the UK's leading industrialists, together with, lots of everyday people of all incomes, who are simply p....d off with the concept of the European superstate.

Let's face it, the EU is broken, with the slowest economic growth worldwide, and the prospect of a future spent bailing out the poorer members, such as Spain, Portugal, Greece, and some of the most recently invited member states, does not inspire me to vote "remain".

dave marshall posted:

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

I would suggest that the support for Brexit includes many of the UK's leading industrialists, together with, lots of everyday people of all incomes, who are simply p....d off with the concept of the European superstate.

 

Polls indicate that five out of five London cabbies are in favor of Brexit  . Could that be an outlier?

Peter Dinh posted:

dave marshall posted:

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

I would suggest that the support for Brexit includes many of the UK's leading industrialists, together with, lots of everyday people of all incomes, who are simply p....d off with the concept of the European superstate.

 

Polls indicate that five out of five London cabbies are in favor of Brexit  . Could that be an outlier?

Richard,

Any chance of merging these two topics, or do we require a referendum? 

I vote that the original forum thread should "Remain" and the Brexit thread should "Leave"

Peter Dinh posted:

 

Polls indicate that five out of five London cabbies are in favor of Brexit  .

Polls indicate also that ten out of ten museum workers like to see a Brexit through the gift shop

in... rich ....rip you off .....made money       out workers    simple 

dave marshall posted:

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

 

 

Actually detailed polling absolutely does suggest the split of Brexit/Leave follows socio-economic groupings (AB-for remain, CD for leave) as well as age (Older=leave), political affiliation and Uni education (=stay) vs no further education =leave.

Make of it what you will, but the facts are out there-well as much as any polling organisation gets it right.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016...d-versus-london-and/

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

dave marshall posted:

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

 

 

Actually detailed polling absolutely does suggest the split of Brexit/Leave follows socio-economic groupings (AB-for remain, CD for leave) as well as age (Older=leave), political affiliation and Uni education (=stay) vs no further education =leave.

Make of it what you will, but the facts are out there-well as much as any polling organisation gets it right.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016...d-versus-london-and/

 

 

 

I haven't as yet searched t'internet for the most recent polls which might show the divide across socio-economic groupings, but the fact that the poll referred to by the link was carried out between 21st. February to 3rd. March, would suggest to me that it doesn't take into account how much opinions may have changed since then............or not. 

audio1946 posted:

in... rich ....rip you off .....made money       out workers    simple 

Does anyone really think though that without EU "interference" that suddenly the government policy will change?  That the low paid will start being paid their fair share?  That those relying on the health service will find it suddenly properly funded?

No.

Nothing with change with things that matter to people day to day.  Those things are national decisions not the decisions of the EU.

Some people are convinced this is a revolution; that exiting the EU will lead to change ... but how many revolutions are lead by the ruling elite?  

None.

Who really thinks Nigel Farage is a man of the people?

The real answer is that the referendum is the result of poor, week leadership.  The referendum was only called by David Cameron as a sop to the Brexiters in his own party; and promised only to try to shut UKIP out.

David Cameron and the Conservatives would be happy to see Scotland leave as it will help keep them in power.

We should be calling for a change in national governance not for an exit from the EU.

Lets make the 2nd chamber something with real teeth; an elected body which oversees the main chamber.  Lets see them doing something to actually help the working classes rather than pointless platitudes about the Northern Powerhouse and faux outrage at the actions of Mike Ashley, Philip Green and Dominic Chappell (not to mention Fred Goodwin and the rest of the banking profession).  Lets see a proper living wage for all and legislation to tighten up workers rights; the outlawing of zero hours contract.  And as a consequence you will also see a reduction in the welfare bill!

Lets see MPs acting fairly - paid properly but then expenses properly controlled.  Lets see MPs facing up to their responsibilities as public servant.  Brining in the checks and balance of the media they promised when it was convenient to play up to the outrage of the phone hacking, but forget when they want the support of the media.

Lets see some real plans to improve housing for the masses.  Some real plans to take the pressure off the capital and bring growth to the rest of the country.

Eloise

dave marshall posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

dave marshall posted:

Peter Dinh posted:

The folks who are in favor of Brexit will have the most to lose as they are naturally more vulnerable to big economic shocks and less likely to afford the increased costs of things.

Economically, Brexit does not make sense!

Not quite sure which economic group you are referring to here?

This notion, promoted by the media, that support for leaving rests with the poor uneducated masses is  pure hyperbole, based on nothing.

 

 

Actually detailed polling absolutely does suggest the split of Brexit/Leave follows socio-economic groupings (AB-for remain, CD for leave) as well as age (Older=leave), political affiliation and Uni education (=stay) vs no further education =leave.

Make of it what you will, but the facts are out there-well as much as any polling organisation gets it right.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016...d-versus-london-and/

 

 

 

I haven't as yet searched t'internet for the most recent polls which might show the divide across socio-economic groupings, but the fact that the poll referred to by the link was carried out between 21st. February to 3rd. March, would suggest to me that it doesn't take into account how much opinions may have changed since then............or not. 

The poll I saw was actually last week-and showed unchanged patterns. I just could not find the link to that one.

I suppose you could retract your statement that it is 'pure hyperbole based on nothing' though? Might not be cast iron but there is some independent evidence.

I'm not promoting Leave or Remain here, just some respect for the facts.

Since we now have two topics running on this, I've cut and pasted my post from t'other one.

Here's a thought.

Given that there are major problems within the EU, particularly as regards the economies of the less well off member countries, which will increasingly require bailing out by the rest.

Further that the Eurozone is stagnant, with one of the lowest growth rates worldwide.

So........................if the UK was at present not a member of the EU, and we were about to have a referendum as to whether to join................which way would you vote? 

Dave, Paul Krugman has a perfect answer for your question.

Paul Krugman is living proof that having excrement for brains doesn't preclude you from a Nobel Prize - one of the biggest "useful idiots" that has ever inhaled a breath of air. A true a-hole's a-hole. A million bucks a year to spew propaganda.

Mark my words, there is NO way these governments are going to honor the pension requirements of those of us who are 10 years or more from retirement. Debt to GDP ratios are so far out of whack (and getting worse) it isn't funny. But the "Krug" proposes more debt. (Always.)

I am waiting for them to come steal our 401k & pension money; of course they won't admit they are stealing it. They will just pass a law "protecting" us from the "dangerous market volatility" (which of course is their fault to begin with) and require us to purchase sovereign debt (in the USA, the "safety and security" of US T-Bills) which are offering a s**t returns, but there's an awful lot of money out there in retirement funds, and politicians and central bankers will not be able to keep their hands off it. In the EU it would even be worse at present, where your money would be stolen invested in negatively yielding instruments. (Although I think Yellen will eventually follow suit - all the Fed bluster about a rate increase is just pure bulls**t...they are losing control and have no other play.)

Why do I mention this on a "Brexit" thread? Because, to quote Bill Clinton, "it's the economy, stupid" - this is all being sold on both sides from an economic standpoint, with immigration as a part of that, but the problems are going to exist whether you stay or go. They are systemic. And the people who make the decisions are best insulated from these problems, so they won't pay as severe a price as the rest of us, and they literally don't give a damn about the proletariat, although many of the proletariat desperately cling to the belief that some of them do. The people at the top are not going to do without Chateaubriand just so folks like us can feed our families.

Of course the vote will be to stay in the EU - the power brokers want it that way, and people will be scared into staying just as the other side tries to scare them into going. But human nature being what it is, "better the devil you know" will almost certainly win out. I'll wager that some who even said all along they will vote to go will change at the last second out of fear of the unknown. It is hard to imagine the reverse happening to any significant degree.

But irrespective of which way it goes, it really won't matter, because the same wrong-headed central banking policies that have created the horrific mess that economies are in will be enacted in the UK and the EU (and the USA for that matter) so either side will be both right and wrong when they point in 1, 2 or 5 years and say "See, we told you so!"

The credit markets are in very, very bad shape, and these Fed, ECB, and IMF types keep doubling down on the same policies that got things to where they are in the first place.

And I hope I am wrong and in 5 years you can point to this and mock me. But I bet I'm much closer to right than wrong. This BS can't go on forever. (But hey, a good "limited" nuclear war will make us all forget.)

DrMark, It seems to me that we are all too emotional rather than rational?

dave marshall posted:

So........................if the UK was at present not a member of the EU, and we were about to have a referendum as to whether to join................which way would you vote? 

 

This isn't a reasonable question. If the UK hadn't joined then what would have happened instead? Would other countries have joined what would be a much weaker EU? The UK joined in 1973 without a referendum. The 1975 referendum was to ask if the UK should stay. So, you can't ask "would you join the EU now in its current form" because it would be totally different if the UK had never joined.

Peter Dinh posted:

DrMark, It seems to me that we are all too emotional rather than rational?

I don't know Peter...

Once upon a time, the interest rate on debt reflected compensation for credit risk and inflation, and a real return reflective of that risk.

At the moment, however, “investors” aren’t getting paid for any of these costs. Instead, thanks to the mad-men running our central banks they are actually being forced to pay governments to borrow.

And to be clear, that’s not an outlier condition in the fringes of the global bond market. Presently there is $10 trillion of sovereign debt securities with negative yields — and that figure is growing by the week as it cascades across government bond markets and out the maturity spectrum.

Does recognizing these facts and the economic and fiscal perversity of them make one emotional or irrational?

I don't know how old you are, but if you can't draw a decent living pension, will that make you irrational to recognize why it happened?

But you have to give them credit; they do it right out in the open, and people refuse to call them out on it.

During the last two decades the major central banks of the world have been colonized by Keynesian crackpots. These academic scribblers (people like Krugman) and power-hungry apparatchiks have now pushed interest rate repression, massive QE (monetizing debt) and relentless rigging of the financial markets to the limits of sanity and beyond. Honest, market-driven price discovery is DOA.

It will not end well - and whether the UK stays or goes will not change that, unless by going they were to adopt a more rational and prudent approach. But that might entail some pain to get where they need to be, and as soon as that comes the power brokers (primarily the 1%) who are never hurt when things go bad, will seize the opportunity to push their fiscal tripe and force the system to go their way. Until of course, it all collapses...but they are like alcoholics who just need that "one more drink" - when you have been binging, there will always be pain to get back to the place where you should be...but not doing so will ultimately lead to disaster.