Has UKIP finally imploded?

Your first and last lines say it beautifully. 

I hope so too, though I guess the people they attract won't go away and will pop up somewhere else.

At the last General Election they polled 12.6% of the vote, 3.9million people. More than the Lib Dems.

At the last European Parliament elections in 2015 26.6% of the vote, the largest party. They also have a significant presence in local government.

If UKIP manages to avoid shredding itself I think it will continue to have a significant electoral presence. I don't know that people will see it as a single issue party (Brexit) because the anti-immigration sentiment is not going away soon. Of course those votes have given them one MP and no overall council control but its main effect has been to drive the Tories to the right. That's not going to stop if they see those votes up for grabs. Like they need an excuse!

I would not bet against Farage being back at some time. Alternatively maybe Trump will stand?

Bruce

Who will the disaffected white working class vote for now? If at all.

C.

Perhaps a rather narrow definition of their support? It is substantial amongst retired/older voters too.

Bruce

Hmack posted:

to cap it all, we have Nigel Farage's support and canvassing for Donald Trump in the US election build up

Funny ... I'm sure someone spoke vehemently about how foreign politicians should keep their nose out of British politics.

And yet UKIP still gets so much publicity. Anyone would think they were the opposition party. How many seats did they get?

Harry posted:

And yet UKIP still gets so much publicity. Anyone would think they were the opposition party. How many seats did they get?

Well they *should* have won 82 seats ... but perhaps thats not a very good argument for replacing the voting system with PR.

Christopher_M posted:

Who will the disaffected white working class vote for now? If at all.

C.

Well, I guess I could be deemed to satisfy at least two thirds of the qualifying criteria for this demographic.

I am certainly a disaffected member of the electorate of this country, and thoroughly disillusioned by the political scene in the UK which has lurched significantly to the right with the BREXIT vote and the takeover of the Conservative Government by a self serving group of right wingers who now claim a mandate to implement a number of ideologies that were not part of their election manifesto. I also happen to be white.

The third criterion is a little difficult. How does one define 'working class'? I certainly 'worked' for most of my working years. I guess the definition varies from generation to generation and from individual to individual. Most people would probably define me as 'middle ' or 'lower middle' class. My parents would probably also have been defined as 'middle class', but their parents in turn came from crofting backgrounds in the Highlands of Scotland - just about as working class as you can get.

So I qualify, or very nearly do so.

I can assure you that the thought of voting for UKIP (or for that matter any party which accepts Nigel Farage as a key member) never even remotely entered my mind, and never will do so in the future. However, I can't answer for the rest of the disaffected white working class.

The thought of voting for the Conservative Party equally never entered my mind.

My problem is that I am now also disaffected in respect of the current state of the Labour party, and so my options are running out.

Will the Liberals make a long overdue return, or will I vote for the SNP in the almost inevitable forthcoming  referendum?

Citizen Smith - whatever happened to your party? Can I still join? Where is Tooting anyway?

Eloise posted:

Harry posted:

And yet UKIP still gets so much publicity. Anyone would think they were the opposition party. How many seats did they get?

Well they *should* have won 82 seats ... but perhaps thats not a very good argument for replacing the voting system with PR.

The classic argument used against PR. I'd still take PR. 

I suspect you are raising the point rather than supporting the FPTP system. Not that it isn't all academic in any case.

Harry posted:

Eloise posted:

Harry posted:

And yet UKIP still gets so much publicity. Anyone would think they were the opposition party. How many seats did they get?

Well they *should* have won 82 seats ... but perhaps thats not a very good argument for replacing the voting system with PR.

The classic argument used against PR. I'd still take PR. 

I suspect you are raising the point rather than supporting the FPTP system. Not that it isn't all academic in any case.

You're right ... I am still a supporter of PR even though it would lead to such a situation.

Eloise posted:

You're right ... I am still a supporter of PR even though it would lead to such a situation.

We had a referendum on that too (PR that is), didn't we................

.............looks to me as if the dickh**ds always win these referendums..

PR would mean an almost indefinite coalition in one form or another.

Not a bad idea IMHO. Reduces opportunities for extremists to exploit their position

Where we live, the Tories could put up a sloth and it would win. It would be more intelligent than our current MP too. 

Don Atkinson posted:

Eloise posted:

You're right ... I am still a supporter of PR even though it would lead to such a situation.

We had a referendum on that too (PR that is), didn't we................

.............looks to me as if the dickh**ds always win these referendums..

Not quite... the referendum was on AV which was a pathetic watered down alternative that not even Nick Clegg wanted to support really!

The AV referendum result was disappointing for me but not at all unexpected.

Mine is one of a number of constituencies in the South West where Labour supporters have tactically voted LD for 25+ years. They switched their votes to Labour, aware of the consequences, but believed that since voting LD enabled the Tories to form a government, they may as well do it themselves by voting Labour and routing the LDs. This was a big part of the swing to the Tories in these parts.

The electorate does seem to have gone a bit bonkers lately. But like George Dent, have apparently struck out only to stab themselves in their own back 

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Eloise posted:

You're right ... I am still a supporter of PR even though it would lead to such a situation.

We had a referendum on that too (PR that is), didn't we................

.............looks to me as if the dickh**ds always win these referendums..

Not quite... the referendum was on AV which was a pathetic watered down alternative that not even Nick Clegg wanted to support really!

True, but it was as close as we were ever going to get to PR this generation, and I doubt if too many of the electorate were aware of the difference.

It would have been the first, teetering step towards a system heading in the direction of PR. You have to start somewhere. Or, as it transpired, go nowhere. Like the EU exit "debate" the pig picture was ignored on all sides in favour of pumping up fear and loathing, stereotyping, trading barbs,making jokes and telling lies.  A dress rehearsal for the big one. It's true; we really do get what we deserve - averagely.

Harry posted:

 The electorate does seem to have gone a bit bonkers lately. But like George Dent, have apparently struck out only to stab themselves in their own back 

Does that make Boris Johnson "Gus"?

Oh yeah! Captain Bollocks.

Hmack posted:

Christopher_M posted:

Who will the disaffected white working class vote for now? If at all.

C.

.....

I can assure you that the thought of voting for UKIP (or for that matter any party which accepts Nigel Farage as a key member) never even remotely entered my mind, and never will do so in the future. However, I can't answer for the rest of the disaffected white working class.

The thought of voting for the Conservative Party equally never entered my mind.

My problem is that I am now also disaffected in respect of the current state of the Labour party, and so my options are running out.

Will the Liberals make a long overdue return, or will I vote for the SNP in the almost inevitable forthcoming  referendum?

......

If I felt that way I would spoil my ballot paper. (Not something I've ever done btw).

C.

UKIP are a bunch of rather sleazy chancers who have become successful at exploiting many people's quite legitimate concerns - none of the mainstream parties were doing so, so they stepped in.

Now they seem to be imploding, partly because of internal squabbles, and partly because the May government has stolen many of their clothes.

Oddly enough, though, they still seem to be polling OK. Perhaps they are like the guy in the Hallowe'en movies. You keep shooting him, stabbing him, hitting him - and every time you think he's dead he twitches into life once more...

I suspect that the Tories will try to park their tanks on UKIP's lawn and this, coupled with the fact that they lack a charismatic fulcrum à la Farage, along with the fact that their main aim was for the UK to leave the EU (an object now at least partially achieved by the Referendum result), means that they will probably return to the margins.

However, should May & Co fudge Brexit, or Farage decides to return from The Donald's camp, then they might not.

Oddly enough, their fate is rather dependent on other parties - principally the Tories, but also Labour.

The Witney by-election results may hold some insight of the way things are going.

Looks like the left of field have [realigned?] voted LD.  Perhaps tactful voting against the new right wing 'BREXITORY' Party?

But the Brexitory Party and Government have won with votes boosted by a big swing vote away from UKIP.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BBC NEWS:

The Conservatives have held ex-PM David Cameron's former seat of Witney in a by-election, but with a majority reduced by more than 20,000 votes.
Robert Courts won by 5,702 votes, with the party's vote share falling from 60% in 2015 to 45%, as the Lib Dems surged past Labour into second.
Liz Leffman polled 11,611 votes as the Lib Dems' share rose from 7% to 30%.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

naim_nymph posted:

The Witney by-election results may hold some insight of the way things are going.

Looks like the left of field have [realigned?] voted LD.  Perhaps tactful voting against the new right wing 'BREXITORY' Party?

But the Brexitory Party and Government have won with votes boosted by a big swing vote away from UKIP.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BBC NEWS:

The Conservatives have held ex-PM David Cameron's former seat of Witney in a by-election, but with a majority reduced by more than 20,000 votes.
Robert Courts won by 5,702 votes, with the party's vote share falling from 60% in 2015 to 45%, as the Lib Dems surged past Labour into second.
Liz Leffman polled 11,611 votes as the Lib Dems' share rose from 7% to 30%.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Not sure I'd place any weight on that bi-election result in view of the very low turnout.