Theresa May calls snap election in June

I think and awful lot of people are going to tick 'none of the above'. Or just not bother.

Bruce

I predict a landslide victory for the Conservatives followed by a hard Brexit, the return of Grammar Schools and the end of the NHS as we know it.

Of course, in the run up to the election we shall have all manor of politician-speak about a better, more inclusive society for all, more money going into the NHS (to line private care providers' pockets), more money going into education (so that private trust academies can prosper - and so that the Secondary-Moderns can provide the technically competent artisans to replace Polish plumbers) Global free-trade agreements to fuel the economy to pay for these investments.................

I have nearly always voted Conservative, but that was when the far-right were a small, ineffective group of nut-cases, who were out of control but didn't need to be controlled. But now ISTM, there are far too many of them and they need to be controlled. Step up Jeremy, step up Tim, step up...........................oh, forget it !

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

I think and awful lot of people are going to tick 'none of the above'. Or just not bother.

Bruce

If "none of the above" was a real option, I have a feeling he/she would win quite a few seats this time around, especially if those "empty" seats were always treated as opposition seats.

I very much fear your prediction is right, Don. We could be on the cusp of a serious lurch to the right with a resurrection of class and opportunity divisions that most people had thought were consigned to the UK's history. Brexit will facilitate this lurch as the protections enshrined in EU law can be gradually repealed and done so largely out of public and parliamentary view.  

Maybe Scotland will see a big influx of migration from England with ordinary folk wanting to get away from the excesses of the Tory right, as the SNP will likely succeed in protecting Scotland either through concessions or more likely full independence.  As you say, it's hard to see who will show the necessary leadership to stand up against this shift. 

naim_nymph posted:

I can see the Lib Dems doing far better than last time, so it's something to hope for : )

A couple of weeks ago, The New Statesmen was reporting that Lynton Cosby (the Conservative party election "strategist") has been warning that the Conservatives may loose the 27odd seats they gained from Lib Dems in 2015.  And the warning is supposedly backed up by private polling the Conservative party commissioned.

Timmo1341 posted:

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

naim_nymph posted:

I can see the Lib Dems doing far better than last time, so it's something to hope for : )

Well they are not going to do worse!

With 'Tim, nice but dim' Farron at the helm? Are you sure about that?

The paralysing conflict of Christianity vs Inclusivity had him stymied on C4 news tonight. Almost as embarassing as trying to elicit endorsements for Jeremy Corbyn from Kezia Dugdale.

G

Bruce Woodhouse posted:

I'll say it again, I just hope the election is about a lot more than Brexit.

As a committed Remainer I have moved on and accepted it will happen. Spilt milk etc. I just want a lot more opposition to the rest of the tory agenda.

Bruce

I suppose we should all hope.

But unfortunately, I think that is all it will be.

If the CPS don't press charges re Conservative election expenses in 2015 by the weekend following the GE (and they won't do so during the campaign) the issue goes away. Surely this wasn't a factor in the vicar's daughter's thinking?  Any opposition leader with strategic sense would oppose the government's motion tomorrow since Labour has nothing to gain from an election. Unfortunate we're talking about Corbyn here for whom strategy is a suspiciously Blairite term.

TOBYJUG posted:

I'm left wondering why May didn't call for it in May.

Maybe, May wanted to, but it may have caused dismay...

The news mill tonite is quoting number 10 having said TM will not take part in TV debates.  Needless to say all the rest are calling chicken or words to that effect.  A strange stance if it's true,  if the TV cmpys do go for a debate I can't see how they can do so without her,  and/or it would be highly risky to not show up.   

I have just had the (dis)-pleasure of watching TM's announcement on the BBC ten o'clock news.

Her tone, not just the words, but the tone of her announcement struck me as vicious, really viscous !

Disturbing !

audio1946 posted:

as a lo

labour voter all my life , it is a blessing,,,    we will go to the lowest mp count in history, then we can start again on real labour values.

And what do you consider to be real labour values ? An illegal war perhaps !!

Hanumike posted:

audio1946 posted:

as a lo

labour voter all my life , it is a blessing,,,    we will go to the lowest mp count in history, then we can start again on real labour values.

And what do you consider to be real labour values ? An illegal war perhaps !!

It wasn't illegal.

But it was voted for by both Labour AND conservatives.

It wasn't JUST Tony B Lair

Don Atkinson posted:

I have just had the (dis)-pleasure of watching TM's announcement on the BBC ten o'clock news.  Her tone, not just the words, but the tone of her announcement struck me as vicious, really viscous !     Disturbing !

I did not see it that way,  steely resolve with a liberal dose of fed up to the back teeth of people throwing rocks in the road. We voted to leave & she has been given the job of getting the best deal possible for the UK.  Its bad enough with the delusions of the LibDems & Greens & their obsessions about a 'hard' brexit (whatever they think that is)  add the Scottish problem with that other woman  (bring back Marshal Wade I say)  & the geo & democratic complications of N.Ireland;  I suspects she thanks to goodness Labour are so ineffectual.  But I suspect the real thorn in her claw is the remainers in the Tory ranks, they appear to be more prepared to fight than unite with the party.  I'm happy to see TM crack the whip,  I didn't vote to leave,  but the UK did & I respect that, its called democracy. She needs this election mandate to give her the authority (in her own party at least) to negotiate for the UK as a whole for the best deal possible.

Mike-B posted:

The news mill tonite is quoting number 10 having said TM will not take part in TV debates.  Needless to say all the rest are calling chicken or words to that effect.  A strange stance if it's true,  if the TV cmpys do go for a debate I can't see how they can do so without her,  and/or it would be highly risky to not show up.   

Although you say that it would be highly risky for May not to take part in TV debates, I feel that it would be even more risky for her to take part.

She would then have to answer a number of very difficult questions with which she would undoubtedly struggle. She claims that “The country is coming together but Westminster is not.” I see absolutely no evidence of this. Rather, I feel that the polarisation of the mood of the British people (who voted narrowly to leave) has been reinforced, partly as a result of the triumphalism of many in the 'Brexit' camp, and also partly as a result of the Tory party's lurch to the right under Theresa May.

She would have to answer some pretty uncomfortable questions about her views on Brexit pre and post referendum. Her claim that she was a 'Remain' supporter leading up to the election does not sit very well alongside the newly formed relish and optimism with which she now appears to have adopted in respect of Britain's exit from the EU. It strikes me that her position, both pre and post election, has been one of political opportunism. She was not prepared to take the risk of being associated with the 'Leave' camp pre-referendum, but has grasped the opportunity of changing her position to gain political advantage post-referendum. Now, some people will argue that this just makes her a 'good politician'. I certainly wouldn't! 

Finally, she must recognise that the Brexit referendum was won because of the fact that a large number of traditional Labour supporters bought in to the concept that the EU was curbing the UK's ability to restrict future floods of immigration by Turkish and other nationalities that was threatened by some of the more extreme in the 'Leave' camp. However, many of these traditional labour voters certainly did not vote for Brexit because they wanted to be governed by an increasingly reactionary, dogmatic and right lurching government such as that proposed by Theresa May and her close advisers and colleagues such as John Redwood.

Is this going to be an election to re-establish the UK's will to leave the EU - a 2nd referendum in all but name, but one that has the additional 'bonus' and consequence of giving May and Redwood the opportunity to claim a mandate for some of their more far right policies? This is no doubt what Theresa May and her close advisers would like to happen, but any appearance by her in a TV debate would certainly require her to debate her cabinet's position on NHS funding, her cabinet's position on the re-establishment of Grammar schools and a host of right wing ideologies that would certainly not sit well with many of those who voted for Brexit. Theresa May will also be aware that many in her own party were very much against leaving the EU. The 'Remainers' in the Tory camp will have to unite to fight a 'General Election' in a way that would just not be possible with a second Brexit referendum, but May would have to answer some very uncomfortable questions with regard to them and their stance with respect to the EU post referendum were she to take part in a TV debate.  

This General Election is going to be incredibly risky for both sides, simply because it will be a highly unusual and confusing event, with manifestos and party positions that are bound to be very contradictory on all sides. 

If I am a Conservative supporter - do I vote for the Tories because I feel that I have to (even if I do not agree with May's stance on Brexit and her position with respect to the NHS and Education)? Very probably, and this is probably why May has called the election! Do I vote for UKIP because it is the only party that is truly unified in respect of a 'Hard Brexit'? Possibly, but very probably not! Do I vote for the 'nicer' Lib Dem party? A few on the left or centre of the party may defect, but probably not many! Do I vote for labour (very much a rhetorical question)?  

If I am a traditional Labour supporter who switched across to a UKIP position specifically for the referendum - do I vote for Theresa May? Almost certainly not, although one or two may defect! Do I vote once more for the UKIP party, or have Nigel Farage's political games post referendum soured prospect? Unclear! Do I return to the Labour fold to oppose Theresa May and her ultra right wing policies now that the Labour party has confirmed that it accepts the Brexit referendum result? A fairly strong possibility in my book!

If I voted UKIP last time round and I am a long term UKIP voter because I have always wanted to leave the EU, what do I do now? This is the great unknown.

If I am a Scot who voted SNP at the last election, do I now switch to vote for the Tories under Theresa May? Almost certainly not! Do I switch allegiance from SNP to Labour? Possibly, but not very likely! In fact, the only crumb of comfort for Theresa May in Scotland is that the last election was won so overwhelmingly by the SNP that it will be extremely difficult for them to match that result again. After all, it will be virtually impossible for them to better the result. No doubt a scenario whereby the SNP wins all but 4 or 5 seats in Scotland will be treated as a moral victory by Theresa May.

If Theresa May's Conservative party wins this election by a small margin, will she be entitled to claim that she has a mandate for her NHS, Education and her other far right policies and ideologies, or will she concede that to at least some extent the election result will have been heavily swayed and clouded by positions with respect to Brexit? I suspect that she will win the election, and I have no doubt that she will claim a mandate both for her parties negotiations on Brexit and for her own increasingly extreme right wing policies.

Will a Theresa May win re-unite the British people, or will it rekindle and fan the flames of class, privilege and division in our country? Sadly, I think the latter will almost inevitably be the case.      

A lot of words that IMO give far too much credence to TV debates HMack.  Yes all valid questions,  but Mrs May & her party are much like all the party's,  all have issues, failures, past demeanors & skeletons in the cupboard they would rather not open up. Getting back to TV debates,  the last election debates were not worth the effort did little that was positive in the country or individuals making or changing voting decisions.   They did however cause a distraction from the task of real electioning;  the protracted negotiations over how many debates was in reality satisfying all the TV companies who wanted the air time.  Then the same old argument over what political party's are invited,  or more to the point who do you leave out,  do we want a 16 all inclusive podium stage,  how to handle the regions & their local specifics.    Sorry but for me they are too much of a distraction & the outcome is not worth the effort.

Actually, Mike, I think I agree with you about the worth of political leadership TV debates. 

People's political views at the time of these debates tend to be entrenched, and I don't think that political leadership debates are likely to have much impact on voting instincts, and from a personal perspective, I don't want the day to be won by cheap political point scoring, to which these debates normally revert.

However, I do think that Theresa May, Redwood et all hope to take advantage of the confusion that will be engendered by this election, in order to further their own specific hard core agendas. This has not been done, in my opinion, in the interests of the British electorate as May has claimed, but specifically to further the narrow interests of the current elite who have inherited the Tory Party leadership.

In my opinion, although I sincerely hope that I am wrong, they will succeed, and the people of this country will become yet more polarised and divided than before.   

At least we agree about one thing HMack.      I'm intrigued with your inclusion of John Redwood as part of Mrs May's 'political grouping' in both your posts;  his current role in the party is hardly influential as co-chair of the party's review group on economic competitiveness.    I would rather recognise her alongside people who are key players in the forthcoming brexit negotiations, such as David Davis, Philip Hammond, Liam Fox & dare I mention Boris !!!     Further to that point I don't agree the far right tory elitist brush you appear to be painting Mrs May with,  I am very familiar with her work in her Maidenhead constituency & that has not been her political style in that job.   

Mike-B posted:

Further to that point I don't agree the far right tory elitist brush you appear to be painting Mrs May with,  I am very familiar with her work in her Maidenhead constituency & that has not been her political style in that job.   

In herself she may not be far right, but she is (it appears) allowing herself to be lead by the politics of the Daily Mail.  She is cowtowed by they to the extent that she won't dare criticise them, feeding platitudes about the freedom of press - as if criticism of a headline is contrary to a free press.

Some images from the new I Spy book coming out Monday...

Mike-B posted:

At least we agree about one thing HMack.      I'm intrigued with your inclusion of John Redwood as part of Mrs May's 'political grouping' in both your posts;  his current role in the party is hardly influential as co-chair of the party's review group on economic competitiveness.    I would rather recognise her alongside people who are key players in the forthcoming brexit negotiations, such as David Davis, Philip Hammond, Liam Fox & dare I mention Boris !!!     Further to that point I don't agree the far right tory elitist brush you appear to be painting Mrs May with,  I am very familiar with her work in her Maidenhead constituency & that has not been her political style in that job.   

Mike,

My mention of John Redwood is admittedly based solely on the fact that he appears to be popping up regularly these days on television as the 'go to' interviewee on all things relating to the recently announced General Election. Why is this? I suppose it is simply the case that he and his far right colleagues (you wouldn't argue that John Redwood is not on the extreme right of mainstream British politics, would you?) are effectively promoting themselves in an effort to gain more influence within the Tory ranks. Alternatively, It may be the case that May is attempting to keep a tight reign on her Cabinet colleagues leading up to the election and so Redwood and a few others are the only Tories with whom the TV companies are able to obtain interviews and comments. It may also be the case that John Redwood is being wheeled out to promote Tory interests with the public (unlikely I admit given his track record), or that Redwood has re-surfaced and is acting as an adviser to Theresa May. Maybe I am just being paranoid, but it is this last prospect that really scares me, even if it is fairly unlikely.

On Theresa May's perceived position within the Tory party - it has always puzzled me that she is perceived as being in the centre-left of the Tory party. I do believe that she is first and foremost a political opportunist who has hidden her true colours, and with the exception of a few comments about personal data gathering and surveillance that could be deemed to be a little disturbing, has kept her views largely to herself. She certainly changed her position on Brexit very dramatically and suddenly following the referendum. Was this the reaction of someone simply bowing to the wishes of the great British Electorate, or the action of a clever opportunist who spotted an opening?

I am certainly of the opinion that the Tory cabinet has lurched to the right since she has been at the helm, and I have a complete distrust and disdain for Liam Fox in particular. Suggestions of a lurch to the right can be found in newly promoted outdated and devise policies with respect to Education (the return of Grammar Schools) and the Tories' continued approach to Health and the NHS in particular, with a seeming desire to alienate NHS Medical Staff with the imposition of ridiculous and dangerous contracts as one of many approaches that seem specifically designed to gradually 'grind down' the NHS. 

In the event that Theresa May wins the General Election, and I concede that this is pretty likely, I wonder how long it will be before measures are taken to gradually move us away from the concept of a free NHS for all funded by taxes, to a Healthcare system based on the ability to pay for comprehensive insurance. 

As an aside, 'Entitlement' in respect of health care and other fundamentals of a decent life appears to be a dirty word these days in some quarters. The portrayal of all (or most) recipients of state benefits as 'malingerers' or 'scroungers' is simply nasty and petty minded. A couple of examples taken from this forum:

 "On my way home from work in the evening I drive past a pub which goes by the nickname of "the Benefits Arms".   Apparently the clientele drink in there several nights a week and all smoke ............ The hypocrisy of Labour knows no bounds"

"I suspect they are all in their having a bet on the horses and watching Sky TV......!!!! "

Now, I strongly suspect that there are indeed some who fall into these categories, and that these comments were to some extent simply meant as jokes. However, to brand by implication, as many do, all benefit claimants in this way is simply unacceptable.   

Interesting observations HMack,  & agree contains a few grains of truth.

I agree Redwood is about as right wing as it goes in the tory party.  I have never been a fan TBH, previously idiot like miming singalongs to the Welsh anthem when he hadn't a clue,  stammering & stuttering in a TV interview over what I can't remember,  but all had me mark him as next to useless.  However I have been changing my mind during a few radio interviews I heard recently when he was speaking on brexit,  he was extremely eloquent & well versed, fending off tricky interviewer entrapment questions answering all extremely well & to me his professionalism in that role was surprisingly convincing. 

I agree May is probably keeping cabinet on a tight reign & it seems only David Davis is allowed to speak on brexit,  & I have to say does that very well.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Redwood has been schooled on his role as well.

I don't see a 'lurch' to the right as such,  OK a move to the right in that most of the anti-EU rebels (PITA's) of Cameron's time are now working in some form with the brexit focus departments,  but I wouldn't put Davis in the right wing group.

I won't get into NHS as  (IMO) its in an underfunding mess but that started way back in time & is not of any government in particulars making,  Apart from the growing & aging population,  the cost of treatment & equipment has grown exponentially.  the NHS isn't 1948 math any more & maybe alternative ways of funding does need to be considered.  Its extremely complex multifaceted problem thats been compounded by getting deeper into the swamp over time & each successive government failing to come to terms with reality & the swamp has has gone from knee deep to splashing around our ears at this moment & needs a huge turnaround in its funding mngt to extract it from the mire

Re grammar schools,  I went to a grammar school so am somewhat biased but unlike many I have actually experienced both systems.  I moved to a technical colledge after 2nd year & believe I got lucky.  But technical or grammar it was till selective streaming & I do recognise the issues.

And talking grammar schools - I need to own up -  Theresa May's father was my village (parish) vicar,   she at age 13 (not 11) won a place to the local grammar school & was  student during the time it converted to comprehensive,  from there she won a scholarship to St Hugh's, Oxford  (just up the road).    She was married at our village parish church.    

Mike-B posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

I have just had the (dis)-pleasure of watching TM's announcement on the BBC ten o'clock news.  Her tone, not just the words, but the tone of her announcement struck me as vicious, really viscous !     Disturbing !

I did not see it that way,  steely resolve with a liberal dose of fed up to the back teeth of people throwing rocks in the road. We voted to leave & she has been given the job of getting the best deal possible for the UK.  Its bad enough with the delusions of the LibDems & Greens & their obsessions about a 'hard' brexit (whatever they think that is)  add the Scottish problem with that other woman  (bring back Marshal Wade I say)  & the geo & democratic complications of N.Ireland;  I suspects she thanks to goodness Labour are so ineffectual.  But I suspect the real thorn in her claw is the remainers in the Tory ranks, they appear to be more prepared to fight than unite with the party.  I'm happy to see TM crack the whip,  I didn't vote to leave,  but the UK did & I respect that, its called democracy. She needs this election mandate to give her the authority (in her own party at least) to negotiate for the UK as a whole for the best deal possible.

Hi Mike,

You have provided a very good description of whatI hope was Theresa May's position. What you have described is a realistic assessment of the situation in which TM now finds herself  (through choice I would suggest) but from which she now realises she must move forward.

Hmack has meanwhile expressed very clearly his views about TM and the Torys and I concurr with much of what he has said. I am still of the opinion that TM had an element of visciousness in her annoumncement, and that, as described by Hmack, she is an opportunist. I really do hope that I am wrong on both counts and that she really does have the aim of "a better Britain for all, post Brexit", as her aspiration.

Cheers, Don

Mike-B posted:

"At least we agree about one thing HMack ...."

Mike, 

Just checked out your profile because I felt that we must have a little more in common - your posts mostly sound so positive and helpful.

Things were going so well - a common interest in Blues music and a common interest in photography - until the completely unforgivable.

You would just have to be a Canon man! Everyone who knows anything at all about photography knows that Nikon makes all the best cameras