Bitcoin

Uhhh.. I just read there are two futures contracts starting this month. CBOE on December 10 and CME on the 18th.

Adam Meredith posted:

A friend once suggested a difference in how (generally) men and women invest. A woman buys, sees a 'nice' increase in value - and sells. Puts the product out of her mind.

A man buys, sees a 'nice' increase in value - and worries about the possible future rise and so hangs on - often too long.

You appear to have already made an indecent amount of money for absolutely no effort. Why not cash in and enjoy it?

Of course ----- tomorrow it might be even bigger and you'll have thrown away all that extra happiness, validation and security.

How miserable are you to need so much more happiness to face each day?

I have plans that are bigger than just getting a bunch of $. While I may take some USD profit I've learned not to discuss that on the forum.  [I might splurge for that Linn Klimax Exakt system I've coveted ????]

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it, I am clearly not cut out to be a market trader... and I lost a fair amount too by doing this as well as making a fair amount more..... if all goes to plan I will hopefully be talking about it on the Hi-Fi corner thread within a few weeks... and helping my daughter with the deposit for her new house.... as well as being mindful of CGT

i have left a small amount in there and will come back to it in a year... but it was an interesting experiment.. I think I can say, been there, got the T shirt as far  as aggressive crypto speculating...

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it, I am clearly not cut out to be a market trader... and I lost a fair amount too by doing this as well as making a fair amount more..... if all goes to plan I will hopefully be talking about it on the Hi-Fi corner thread within a few weeks... and helping my daughter with the deposit for her new house.... as well as being mindful of CGT

i have left a small amount in there and will come back to it in a year... but it was an interesting experiment.. I think I can say, been there, got the T shirt as far  as aggressive crypto speculating...

The last 24 hours has not been for the faint-of-heart in terms of volatility.

I can't think of a single trading strategy for crypto, other than pure chartism. There is no underlying asset. Nothing to guide any opinion whatsoever as to whether any given price is high, low or fair. I guess there is perhaps arbitrage across the various exchanges for the quick-of-finger. That's a lot of work, though.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it,

Not to patronise but - well done.

Presumably the money you made came, or will come, from somewhere. That'll be the losers?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it, I am clearly not cut out to be a market trader... and I lost a fair amount too by doing this as well as making a fair amount more..... if all goes to plan I will hopefully be talking about it on the Hi-Fi corner thread within a few weeks... and helping my daughter with the deposit for her new house.... as well as being mindful of CGT

i have left a small amount in there and will come back to it in a year... but it was an interesting experiment.. I think I can say, been there, got the T shirt as far  as aggressive crypto speculating...

Congratulations.... You took the risk and received the reward. I suppose a 552 is on order?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it, I am clearly not cut out to be a market trader... and I lost a fair amount too by doing this as well as making a fair amount more..... if all goes to plan I will hopefully be talking about it on the Hi-Fi corner thread within a few weeks... and helping my daughter with the deposit for her new house.... as well as being mindful of CGT

i have left a small amount in there and will come back to it in a year... but it was an interesting experiment.. I think I can say, been there, got the T shirt as far  as aggressive crypto speculating...

Did you notice the massive spike in LTC price today? Trading over $132.00...... I have not had time to read the news but I guess something big going on in the LTC world.

Adam Meredith posted:

A friend once suggested a difference in how (generally) men and women invest. A woman buys, sees a 'nice' increase in value - and sells. Puts the product out of her mind.

A man buys, sees a 'nice' increase in value - and worries about the possible future rise and so hangs on - often too long.

You appear to have already made an indecent amount of money for absolutely no effort. Why not cash in and enjoy it?

Of course ----- tomorrow it might be even bigger and you'll have thrown away all that extra happiness, validation and security.

How miserable are you to need so much more happiness to face each day?

Have you been talking with my wife? Strange that last night she said we should sell some Bitcoins. Never once in the past 5 years had she shown any interest in bitcoin, other than an infrequent comment suggesting  I'm a bit crazy. Last night she really had an opinion.....

Talking of risk, since my modest cryptocurrency holding is currently showing gains of more than 100%, I'm thinking I may cash in my original investment, and treat the remaining risk free balance purely as a bit of fun. 

dave marshall posted:

Talking of risk, since my modest cryptocurrency holding is currently showing gains of more than 100%, I'm thinking I may cash in my original investment, and treat the remaining risk free balance purely as a bit of fun. 

Solid strategy.

Adam Meredith posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it,

Not to patronise but - well done.

Presumably the money you made came, or will come, from somewhere. That'll be the losers?

Thank you. Possibly, or it might be those speculating and investing might see ever so slightly less growth because I cashed out

Kevin Richardson posted:

dave marshall posted:

Talking of risk, since my modest cryptocurrency holding is currently showing gains of more than 100%, I'm thinking I may cash in my original investment, and treat the remaining risk free balance purely as a bit of fun. 

Solid strategy.

And why not.. I left about 10% in to leave for a bit of fun... it’s a loss stressful psychologically when it’s a risk free balance... 

Kevin Richardson posted:

Did you notice the massive spike in LTC price today? Trading over $132.00...... I have not had time to read the news but I guess something big going on in the LTC world.

I sure did, but ignored it... I have had enough ... .. I see it’s rising again now as I type this, but I don’t trust Litecoin, I think it’s heavily manipulated .. I suspect once Bitcoin starts moving up again after its dip and pause, Litecoin will drop again.. it usually does. Not aware of any specific news today.

Hook posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Hmack, thanks for your reply... and as I type there is a little *bit* of a correction going on.... Cryptos don’t always go up in value  against fiat..... and there has been a massive drop in the last hour...

You've got to love it when a "massive drop in price" still has Bitcoin > $10,000.

To be fare, it did drop some way below $10k. But is back above there this morning... such is the way of crypto/fiat ratios.

 

If you take a longer view.... even a drop to $7,000 would have exceeded "realistic" expectations for 2017. If it can consolidate around 10k at end of year then 2018 might be another big year. If support wanes then a significant correction is likely.

I wish I had some basis to evaluate the impact the futures market will have on price action over the next couple of months. This is the obvious elephant in the room. 

Agreed. I think that hedge funds will participate in this market, but it is not clear what the impact of such institutionalization will be. My guess is we see an increase in the number of participants willing to hold long positions, but the ease of trading futures could also make it easy for bears to short. Either sentiment should, at least indirectly, have an impact of Bitcoin spot pricing.

I imagine we can draw analogies from other futures markets, but which ones?

Bears can short but the settlement price is a function of GDAX (Coinbase) price. This is a positive as the real Bitcoin market will dictate the futures market price which is the opposite for commodities. Shorting will be a dangerous game.

There is an interesting article in today’s Times which, if it was April 1st, I would think it was a joke.
Online it is behind a paywall but you can read the start of it here.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/art...an-sustain-sqks6rpk0
It goes on to site research by Digiconomist which says that by July 2019 ‘the bitcoin network will require more electricity than the US currently uses and by February 2020 more than the entire world does today!
Can that possibly be true?

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Adam Meredith posted:

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

Well last night I sold most my bitcoin (and just as well as the price dipped nearly 20%  afterwards) ... I met my target that I started earlier in the thread, if I am honest it got quite stressful making it work by trading it,

Not to patronise but - well done.

Presumably the money you made came, or will come, from somewhere. That'll be the losers?

Thank you. Possibly, or it might be those speculating and investing might see ever so slightly less growth because I cashed out

Well done on your profits, but as to the "losers"....Nope. Someone gave you the money when they bought your bitcoin. They may in turn convince someone to give them as much or more in the future, but eventually a "bigger fool" will not be found. The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances. Crypto is not yet a means of transaction, and the price is purely speculative. The ever increasing cost of resources to mine a transact these things is a deadweight loss, destroying value for the purposes of transferring wealth. It is a less-than-zero-sum game.

Don’t disagree entirely, but albeit in a very much of minority of outlets and organisations it is slowly becoming a means of transaction... whether it ever becomes mainstream ... who knows. As far as the value of bitcoin, in many ways it is not dissimilar to stocks and shares... the value of a public share is based on sentiment of the associated business, and the ability of the business to pay dividends on those shares.

Morton posted:

Can that possibly be true?

Well yes Bitcoin transaction validation and mining does indeed consume a lot of electricity..and if it it were a country it would be the 65th largest energy consumer... this energy is essentially required to create and transact the remaining bitcoins until all 21 million are in .existence.. Now whether you agree this immuatability of validation and integrity of an independent system of wealth is worth it or not depends on your perspective... I guess if one was to add all the power for mining, smelting, storing, transacting and distribution of gold globally... that would add up to to a pretty significant figure too. It could be in the future Bitcoin PoW (proof of work) algorithm is changed to PoS (proof of stake) then power consumption would be significantly reduced to create the remaining coins, but arguably so would transactional integrity and security be reduced too ...

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.co...untries-is-positive/

winkyincanada posted:

The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances.

- and that can't be a source of inflation - unlike sub-prime lending, from which everyone, but the rich, have yet to recover?

I suppose it's quantitative easing  (AKA printing money) for the individual. Which doesn't exactly make it good,

I guess it all depends whether you believe in investing in assets and shares... I don’t know about you but that is the only way I will be receiving a reasonably comfortable pension when that times comes... and I hope my annuity will be worth more than the capital I have invested in it...

but getting back to cryptocurrencies many Cryptos do have built in inflation built into their algorithms such as bitcoin which decreases over time until they reach their max size which inherently adds a scarcity value which tends to increase its value over time if in demand... ... this is I guess is kind of equivalent to fiat inflation, but quantative easing  requires a centralised bank to add money into the system in a controlled way at specific times, the advantage or disadvantage, depending on your perspective, of Cryptos is that is exactly what you can’t do.. and don’t let’s forget, like any Asset it’s value is only worth what people are willing to pay for it, they don’t create fiat money..  Additionally many minor Cryptos have failed and fallen by the wayside as they had no eventual perceived value... and this may of course happen to any crypto or asset at any time...

Adam Meredith posted:

winkyincanada posted:

The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances.

- and that can't be a source of inflation - unlike sub-prime lending, from which everyone, but the rich, have yet to recover?

I suppose it's quantitative easing  (AKA printing money) for the individual. Which doesn't exactly make it good,

Central banks are responsible for increasing money supply. Miners increase supply of bitcoins. Central banks are creating fiat much faster than bitcoins are created. People recognize that government fiat is losing value and Bitcoin price reflects the perceived value of a non inflationary currency.

It Isn't QE which steals from savers and gives to spenders. Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to short USD.

Simon-in-Suffolk posted:

 As far as the value of bitcoin, in many ways it is not dissimilar to stocks and shares... the value of a public share is based on sentiment of the associated business, and the ability of the business to pay dividends on those shares.

Similar in some ways but fundamentally it is VERY dissimilar....

The difference between a share in a business and a bitcoin is that the business produces something of value. Take a car maker. Cars have utility. People will trade labour hours , working in job for money (doesn't really matter the type) for the right to own a car. They will do this because a car lets them go places etc. The value of a car manufacturing business (and the shares in it)  is underpinned by the fundamental utility of cars. The value of a crypto is underpinned by nothing but belief that someone in the future will want it.

But yes, point taken that sentiment drives equity prices, at least in the short term. That sentiment has been repaid virtually continuously since the emergence of publicly traded stocks. My retirement "savings" are not in the form of currencies, fiat or otherwise. They are in the form of ownership of a wide selection of businesses that produce something of actual utility, as well as real estate. If anything, I am short currency, as my mortgage is a bit greater than my cash and cash-like holdings.

Kevin Richardson posted:

Adam Meredith posted:

winkyincanada posted:

The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances.

- and that can't be a source of inflation - unlike sub-prime lending, from which everyone, but the rich, have yet to recover?

I suppose it's quantitative easing  (AKA printing money) for the individual. Which doesn't exactly make it good,

Central banks are responsible for increasing money supply. Miners increase supply of bitcoins. Central banks are creating fiat much faster than bitcoins are created. People recognize that government fiat is losing value and Bitcoin price reflects the perceived value of a non inflationary currency.

It Isn't QE which steals from savers and gives to spenders. Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to short USD.

USD inflation has been steady around 2% for years. If anything, stuff is becoming cheaper and cheaper in terms of USD as real price reductions out-pace inflation. Fiat currencies (in general) dramatically gained value in the asset price collapse of the GFC in 2008. A repeat of that sort of asset price collapse is perhaps possible in the near future, and in my view, more likely than rampant inflation. But of course, I might be wrong. That's why I don't hold currency.

(I remain slightly baffled that after making 10 years of mortgage payments prior to 2008, you still didn't have enough equity to keep your condo from being ultimately priced at less than your remaining mortgage. Even if you weren't making substantial capital payments, I would have expected the inflation over the 10 years to have significantly increased your equity, giving you a better "buffer".)

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Adam Meredith posted:

winkyincanada posted:

The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances.

- and that can't be a source of inflation - unlike sub-prime lending, from which everyone, but the rich, have yet to recover?

I suppose it's quantitative easing  (AKA printing money) for the individual. Which doesn't exactly make it good,

Central banks are responsible for increasing money supply. Miners increase supply of bitcoins. Central banks are creating fiat much faster than bitcoins are created. People recognize that government fiat is losing value and Bitcoin price reflects the perceived value of a non inflationary currency.

It Isn't QE which steals from savers and gives to spenders. Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to short USD.

USD inflation has been steady around 2% for years. If anything, stuff is becoming cheaper and cheaper in terms of USD as real price reductions out-pace inflation. Fiat currencies (in general) dramatically gained value in the asset price collapse of the GFC in 2008. A repeat of that sort of asset price collapse is perhaps possible in the near future, and in my view, more likely than rampant inflation. But of course, I might be wrong. That's why I don't hold currency.

(I remain slightly baffled that after making 10 years of mortgage payments prior to 2008, you still didn't have enough equity to keep your condo from being ultimately priced at less than your remaining mortgage. Even if you weren't making substantial capital payments, I would have expected the inflation over the 10 years to have significantly increased your equity, giving you a better "buffer".)

The market value of our condo went up a bit but we bought near the all time high value. We lived in the tallest residential building in the world and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks people were less interested in living in landmark buildings that may be a potential target. [In 2001 our HOA insurance policy cost $300,000/year. In 2002 we had to pay $1,500,000 for less coverage. We had to dip into our reserves but eventually passed a significant increase to monthly assessments.] So the market really cooled from 2001-2008 where typical buildings continued to appreciate.

We had a 30 year mortgage with 20% down. When it sold we had to cover about 20% of our original purchase price. I regret selling but it was bleeding us dry and we weren't even living there! [Parking was expensive and assessments were equivalent to average mortgage payments.] I just feel lucky we didn't follow our plans to buy a bigger/nicer unit in the building after we had kids. We came very close to buying a unit  in 2007 that could have easily bankrupted us.

Had we held it for another 1-2 years we would have at worst broken even. I'm sure now it is worth a lot more than we paid for it. When I eventually sell some bitcoins I plan to buy another condo in that building. [It really is my favorite building in the USA] Until then... I'll just have to suffer living at ground level.

winkyincanada posted:

Kevin Richardson posted:

Adam Meredith posted:

winkyincanada posted:

The deposit on daughters house did not appear out of thin air, despite appearances.

- and that can't be a source of inflation - unlike sub-prime lending, from which everyone, but the rich, have yet to recover?

I suppose it's quantitative easing  (AKA printing money) for the individual. Which doesn't exactly make it good,

Central banks are responsible for increasing money supply. Miners increase supply of bitcoins. Central banks are creating fiat much faster than bitcoins are created. People recognize that government fiat is losing value and Bitcoin price reflects the perceived value of a non inflationary currency.

It Isn't QE which steals from savers and gives to spenders. Bitcoin is the ultimate asset to short USD.

USD inflation has been steady around 2% for years. If anything, stuff is becoming cheaper and cheaper in terms of USD as real price reductions out-pace inflation. Fiat currencies (in general) dramatically gained value in the asset price collapse of the GFC in 2008. A repeat of that sort of asset price collapse is perhaps possible in the near future, and in my view, more likely than rampant inflation. But of course, I might be wrong. That's why I don't hold currency.

(I remain slightly baffled that after making 10 years of mortgage payments prior to 2008, you still didn't have enough equity to keep your condo from being ultimately priced at less than your remaining mortgage. Even if you weren't making substantial capital payments, I would have expected the inflation over the 10 years to have significantly increased your equity, giving you a better "buffer".)

Oh we sold in 2012. It took nearly 18 months.

Dont forget commissions/taxes. When you buy you pay  about 8% more than it is really worth. [Our city had a 3.5% tax on real estate purchases ????] When you sell you pay 4-6% commission + thousands for attorney/title insurance. Plus you need to pay a prorated amount into escrow for property taxes.