Bitcoin

Posted by: Kevin Richardson on 06 August 2017

I'm selling all my material possessions, equities and bonds. So... I'll be back in 5 years once I have my Statement system up and running. Until then, thanks for all the good advice.

Posted on: 08 August 2017 by Huge

Good luck trying to use Bitcoin to buy food staples, or are you also planing a virtual body (i.e. with an on-line presence only) for the next 5 years as well!

Posted on: 08 August 2017 by JamieWednesday

I did have some Bitcoin, cashed out for some magic beans.

Posted on: 08 August 2017 by count.d

Too much of a gamble if you can't afford to lose the money. 

I like to invest in individual stocks in the US markets for a bit of fun and properly invest in large equity funds spread across different world markets. If/when markets dip, buy more units. Invest/build up £50k and within 3 years you'll have a new 552 for free. Within, not in.

Advice? Choose a market i.e. Asia excl Japan, research and compare fund options and choose one that always out-performs the others. 

Posted on: 08 August 2017 by JamieWednesday

Yep, but you should see my beans.

Posted on: 08 August 2017 by rjstaines
JamieWednesday posted:

Yep, but you should see my beans.

Thanks... but I'd rather not Jamie 

Posted on: 09 August 2017 by Eloise
JamieWednesday posted:

Yep, but you should see my beans.

It's a topsy-turvy world, and maybe this doesn't amount to a hill of beans. But this is my hill. And these are my beans!

Posted on: 13 August 2017 by Kevin Richardson

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167. Please continue to tell me I'm wrong . (Disclaimer: I've been buying Bitcoin since it was 60$)

Posted on: 13 August 2017 by Simon-in-Suffolk

I dabbled right at the start and they plummeted for a while... I never went back .. sounds like you are having fun.

Posted on: 13 August 2017 by DrMark

Yeah I am trying to make heads and tails out of this cryptocurrency situation. I think there are over 900 of them at present, and I am sure most of them will utterly fail, but as the financial markets continue on their Central Bank fueled Bataan Death March I am sure some of them will flourish and stick.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Adam Meredith
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Huge
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Adam you have to be very careful keeping a spread portfolio.  It has to be spread wide enough, because, in close proximity, the hippogriffs will eat the unicorns (but they then feel guilty about it, which is why they're calls gilt hippogriffs). 

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Kevin Richardson
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Good for you. 

I've earned the right to be as smug as I want. I spent my career in finance and made three predictions:

1.Amazon

2. Gold

3. Bitcoin

Im not surprised people mock Bitcoin as I had the very same reaction in 2001 when I predicted Amazon would eventually become the world's most valuable company.

Anyhoo... You be you and I'll be me.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Huge

Ke

Kevin Richardson posted:
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Good for you. 

I've earned the right to be as smug as I want. I spent my career in finance and made three predictions:

1.Amazon

2. Gold

3. Bitcoin

Im not surprised people mock Bitcoin as I had the very same reaction in 2001 when I predicted Amazon would eventually become the world's most valuable company.

Anyhoo... You be you and I'll be me.

A lot of people very rightly predicted the remarkable rise in value of the South Sea Company.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Kevin Richardson
Huge posted:

Ke

Kevin Richardson posted:
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Good for you. 

I've earned the right to be as smug as I want. I spent my career in finance and made three predictions:

1.Amazon

2. Gold

3. Bitcoin

Im not surprised people mock Bitcoin as I had the very same reaction in 2001 when I predicted Amazon would eventually become the world's most valuable company.

Anyhoo... You be you and I'll be me.

A lot of people very rightly predicted the remarkable rise in value of the South Sea Company.

Don't worry... most older people are clueless as to the economic reality of Bitcoin\crypto currency. I'm pushing 50 but have always been a futurist. The massive transfer of wealth from holders of gold, silver, bonds, and large-cap equities to Bitcoin\crypto may take 20-50 years but it will happen regardless of how boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y feel. Is it a straight line up? No. Will it crash again? Probably. Is it a risky investment given a 10-20 year horizon? No. Could I be wrong? Yes. Nothing is 100%. [Bitcoin is only 99.9% likely to go to $30,000 in five years.]

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by JamieWednesday

Just so open to fraud, fear of fraud and lack of substance which, together with its stupendously high daily volatility, means the world at large won't accept any CC until it has some kind of even theoretical backing by 'real world' reserves.

The fact that 99% of Bitcoin owners could switch allegiance to a brand new, more shiny CC tomorrow doesn't help endear it either.

Belief is everything, whether it's Gold, Dollars or Bitcoin. Tulip bulbs, Parmalat or CDOs. Right now we're in the phase where some, like the OP, are benefitting from the belief. The moment that belief becomes unfounded, after some of the masses have bought in, it is likely to collapse I suspect.

It could be quite likely that investors at some point wonder 'what was I thinking...' and the belief stops spreading very swiftly.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Adam Meredith
Kevin Richardson postedon't worry... most older people are clueless as to the economic reality of Bitcoin\crypto currency. I'm pushing 50 but have always been a futurist. 

Young man, I'm even clueless about how 'ordinary' money is an economic reality.

At least, in this, I share my ignorance with the Wall Street Masters of the Universe.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Kevin Richardson
JamieWednesday posted:

Just so open to fraud, fear of fraud and lack of substance which, together with its stupendously high daily volatility, means the world at large won't accept any CC until it has some kind of even theoretical backing by 'real world' reserves.

The fact that 99% of Bitcoin owners could switch allegiance to a brand new, more shiny CC tomorrow doesn't help endear it either.

Belief is everything, whether it's Gold, Dollars or Bitcoin. Tulip bulbs, Parmalat or CDOs. Right now we're in the phase where some, like the OP, are benefitting from the belief. The moment that belief becomes unfounded, after some of the masses have bought in, it is likely to collapse I suspect.

It could be quite likely that investors at some point wonder 'what was I thinking...' and the belief stops spreading very swiftly.

"Real world reserves"... A common misconception regarding Bitcoin is that it is not "backed by anything".  This is absolutely not true. Bitcoin is backed by the mathematics performed by the world's largest super computer network. This network continues to grow in hash power as the value of the Bitcoin increases. Millions of $/day is spent securing the integrity of the Blockchain. If you own a BTC, this network makes it economically impossible for anybody to change ownership without your consent. The cost to "undo" a previous transaction doubles every 10 minutes. To change a transaction from yesterday requires resources beyond even that of the US government.

Trust and faith in mathematics vs central banks is what will continue to propel Bitcoin to the level of a world Reserve Currency. The volatility will decrease over time as the existing BTC become more evenly distributed among the population. Since 2012, I've told everybody in my life to just buy 1 BTC as the downside risk has been very little. AFAIK nobody has followed my advice. Right now 1 BTC = $4,300 and I'd still recommend everybody buy 1 if they can just hold it for several years without "freaking out" over a possible 50% retraction.

Beyond BTC, some other crypto coins are going to form the basis for Internet 4.0. Platform coins like NEO, Ethereum, and Stratis will become the new "distributed computing networks" for "Smart Contracts" which will likely disrupt existing business models in finance, banking, identity management, gambling, and many more.

Bitcoin is difficult to understand but if you spend time learning how it works, you will understand WHY it works. Also, you will eventually understand that its value will continue to grow vs USD.

I suppose I should stop trying to sell the idea. I've experienced nothing but ridicule over the years. Eventually everybody will know a "Bitcoin Millionaire" and that will be enough for typical people to understand it is "real".

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Hook

Hard to keep up with Bitcoin news, which now appears to have split in two: Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. But there have been some interesting articles in the WSJ over the last few weeks. Brett Arends called Bitcoin garbage with no real world use outside of online gambling, trafficking in illegal goods and services, and money laundering.  Josh Brown bought some Bitcoin, but admitted it was mostly based on FOMO (fear of missing out).

I can see pluses and minuses. On the one hand, when I think about the advancements in mobile payments and e-commerce over the last decade, and if I read about the potential of block chain technology, then itís seems silly to just write Bitcoin and other crypto currencies off as a fad. But the volatility, the potential for fraud (e.g., for relatively immature exchanges to be hacked and money stolen), means there are still serious warning signs.

I know that my US dollars have not been redeemable for gold since 1933, and silver since 1968. I know they are only backed by this nebulous promise of "full faith and credit" by the US government. But at least I can still exchange them for goods and services worldwide. Will Bitcoin reach this level of ubiquity some day? Maybe. Will it become the world's next reserve currency? We'll see.

Personally, I have not reached the FOMO stage, and I am definitely more risk adverse than Kevin. Still, I appreciate him sharing his informed opinions, and I wish him all the best with his investments!

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Adam Meredith
Kevin Richardson posted:

"Real world reserves"... A common misconception regarding Bitcoin is that it is not "backed by anything".  This is absolutely not true. Bitcoin is backed by the mathematics performed by the world's largest super computer network. This network continues to grow in hash power as the value of the Bitcoin increases. Millions of $/day is spent securing the integrity of the Blockchain. If you own a BTC, this network makes it economically impossible for anybody to change ownership without your consent. The cost to "undo" a previous transaction doubles every 10 minutes. To change a transaction from yesterday requires resources beyond even that of the US government.

I hear you - I really do.

Posted on: 14 August 2017 by Corry
Kevin Richardson posted:

Is it a straight line up? No. Will it crash again? Probably. Is it a risky investment given a 10-20 year horizon? No. Could I be wrong? Yes. Nothing is 100%. [Bitcoin is only 99.9% likely to go to $30,000 in five years.]

Is asking a question that you then answer a valid rhetorical device? Sometimes.

Posted on: 15 August 2017 by count.d
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167. Please continue to tell me I'm wrong . (Disclaimer: I've been buying Bitcoin since it was 60$)

You won't be right or wrong, you'll be lucky or unlucky. During the night, bitcoin went down 15% within a 6 hour period. There's a chance it could double overnight or crash to zero. Not an investment I'd be interested in. You can't know what the bitcoin value is going to do, no matter how long you've been in finance. Amazon, gold, Google, Apple...... not exactly difficult was it? Sunday paper reading.

99.9%? With statements like that, I'd worry if I were you. Trade the bitcoin with excess money, don't invest your life savings.

Posted on: 16 August 2017 by Simon-in-Suffolk

Kevin, what method to you use as securing your bitcoin wallet with that sort of money.. I assume you use a disconnected (off line) hardware wallet in a safe or similar, or do you use a third party?

S

Posted on: 17 August 2017 by Wugged Woy
Kevin Richardson posted:
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Good for you. 

I've earned the right to be as smug as I want.

Me too. I'm a Yorkshireman............... 

Posted on: 17 August 2017 by Huge
Kevin Richardson posted:
Adam Meredith posted:
Kevin Richardson posted:

Ok.... When I posted this BTC was $3,209 and now at $4,167.

I plunged majorly into unicorn futures - before they became fashionable.

My broker tells me we now have a consolidated spread portfolio which leverages market trends to give an over-base-rate return of 720%.

Should I so wish (and why would I?) this can easily be reverse capitalised through a gradual move to tranches of gryphons and gilt hippogriffs. 

I'm feeling pretty smug (I think).

Good for you. 

I've earned the right to be as smug as I want. I spent my career in finance and made three predictions:

I was going to make a smart alec (American orange orientated) comment about that, but I won't as
1 you don't deserve that comparison
2 it would get me banned!

Posted on: 17 August 2017 by Huge

If you want another area in which to invest, the next technical era is going to be the era of ceramics.

We've had eras of Stone, Bronze, Iron, Steel, Aluminium, Plastics, Electronics, Computers, and these are now common place.  Now we're seeing composites gaining traction (pun intended), and the most remarkable of these are ceramics.


Early ceramic developments include...

Surface control (non-stick surfaces, self lubricating bearings, hardened surfaces)
Lightness & hardness (low wear bearings, ceramic knives)
Lightness and rigidity (Aloxite structural components)
Toughness (toughened cermets)
Strength (hotelware, boron fibre)


Still to come, but getting close...

Combinations of these (and novel) properties
Ceramic semiconductors (this has already started with amorphous silicon photovoltaic cells)
Medium temperature capable ceramic superconductors (currently yttrium barium copper oxide (YBCO) and a few others are getting close)
Ceramic optical devices (such as opto-electronic switches)


So, it's not that difficult!