Brexit or Bust !!

Posted by: Don Atkinson on 01 January 2019

With only 88 days to go before the biggest collective decision that most of us here in the UK will ever experience....... what will happen !!

My prediction is :

TM with press her current deal + "assurance" about the "NI Backstop" and put it to a Parliamentary vote

Parliament will reject this deal/assurance, then

Parliament will reject leaving without a deal

Then Either :-

A Motion of No-Confidence will be approved and a General Election will follow or

A Motion to Withdraw Article 50 will be approved and we will start over. (I rather like this idea)

 

One final possibility .....

The Gov friggs about for 88 days and we don't wake up until 30th March .... ie we SLEEPWALK out of the EU

 

 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by winkyincanada
Drewy posted:

Whatever. 

Your intelligence and thoughtful insight intrigue me. May I subscribe to your newsletter?

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by rodwsmith

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Drewy
winkyincanada posted:
Drewy posted:

Whatever. 

Your intelligence and thoughtful insight intrigue me. May I subscribe to your newsletter?

No

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by ynwa250505
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Innocent Bystander
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

Democracy would only be served by a confirmatory referendum. If you argue against that but insist on following through on Brexit on the basis of the 2016 referendum you are against democracy.

Interesting that you reposted the picture - I’ll do likewise to ensure maximum exposure!

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by jlarsson
Stephen packer posted:

A problem with exit/then reapply is even if fast tracked there is (I believe) a requirement to sign up for Schengen and join the Eurozone.  Of course, this is a problem for the UK, not the EU!

There aren't any simple answers and there is little time left- and I put the blame for this at the UK Government's door, they've prevaricated away 30 months.  Utterly shocking.

Hopefully the EU will clear this extension business up soon for the benefit of all. If it interferes with the EU-elections they may need a coucil-meeting to discuss it.

Half of the states joining the EU since 2004 also joined the Eurozone. Personally I am not convinced by the euro. The compromise written into the treaty says it is a requirement but the timetable to do it is up to each state. Denmark and the UK have negotiated opt-out. My country (sweden) would probably rather join Norway in EEA/EFTA before joining the euro. Our current setup is we on purpose rigged so we dont fulfill some obscure convergence criteria for the euro and it requires a parliament vote to change this. Only the liberals (5.5%) sometimes mentions a new referendum on the euro and always gets hurt in the polls.

Schengen is less controversial and a number of non-EU countries have joined. I dont know if it is required.

 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Drewy
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

Democracy would only be served by a confirmatory referendum. If you argue against that but insist on following through on Brexit on the basis of the 2016 referendum you are against democracy.

Interesting that you reposted the picture - I’ll do likewise to ensure maximum exposure!

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

Yes there’s the picture posted again. I’d like to point out that elephant is photoshopped onto the picture of the cabinet room in case you didn’t realise. 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by MDS
Drewy posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

Democracy would only be served by a confirmatory referendum. If you argue against that but insist on following through on Brexit on the basis of the 2016 referendum you are against democracy.

Interesting that you reposted the picture - I’ll do likewise to ensure maximum exposure!

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

Yes there’s the picture posted again. I’d like to point out that elephant is photoshopped onto the picture of the cabinet room in case you didn’t realise. 

Really? And there's me thinking it was just the slogan that had been photoshopped!  I thought every meeting of the Cabinet had an elephant-in-the-room. Ah well. 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Innocent Bystander
Drewy posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

 

 

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

I have answered that question, or variations on the theme, many times on this forum, most recently only yesterday. The answer, emphatically, is YES.

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Don Atkinson
Innocent Bystander posted:
Drewy posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

 

 

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

I have answered that question, or variations on the theme, many times on this forum, most recently only yesterday. The answer, emphatically, is YES.

I think that most, if not all, of the Remain voters on this forum have confirmed at one time or another, that they would respect the out come of a confirmatory referendum. And that is despite knowing that not all of those on this forum who voted to Remain last time would necessarily vote to remain next time.

BTW, I wasn't for one minute, taken in by that picture. I was pretty sure from the start that is was some sort of "photoshopped" fake.

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Innocent Bystander
rodwsmith posted:

This rather effective picture has managed to be reposted on here six times, and none for the sake of it - until this, the 7th one!

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Tony2011

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by naim_nymph
Don Atkinson posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
Drewy posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

 

 

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

I have answered that question, or variations on the theme, many times on this forum, most recently only yesterday. The answer, emphatically, is YES.

I think that most, if not all, of the Remain voters on this forum have confirmed at one time or another, that they would respect the out come of a confirmatory referendum. And that is despite knowing that not all of those on this forum who voted to Remain last time would necessarily vote to remain next time.

BTW, I wasn't for one minute, taken in by that picture. I was pretty sure from the start that is was some sort of "photoshopped" fake.

You can tell it's a photoshop fake, Theresa would never sit next to Boris, they hate each others guts.

Can see anything else wrong tho'

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Huge
naim_nymph posted:
Don Atkinson posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
Drewy posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
ynwa250505 posted:
rodwsmith posted:

You’re not overly keen on democracy are you ...

 

 

So if the confirmatory referendum doesn’t go the way you like it would you support your so called democracy? Somehow I doubt it. 

I have answered that question, or variations on the theme, many times on this forum, most recently only yesterday. The answer, emphatically, is YES.

I think that most, if not all, of the Remain voters on this forum have confirmed at one time or another, that they would respect the out come of a confirmatory referendum. And that is despite knowing that not all of those on this forum who voted to Remain last time would necessarily vote to remain next time.

BTW, I wasn't for one minute, taken in by that picture. I was pretty sure from the start that is was some sort of "photoshopped" fake.

You can tell it's a photoshop fake, Theresa would never sit next to Boris, they hate each others guts.

Can see anything else wrong tho'

Debs, you can tell the elephant's got sense though - it's female!

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by winkyincanada

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46856149

Calling it off becoming more likely? Let's hope so.

 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by jlarsson

According to Guardian ”official sources” in the EU says they would be willing to give a technical extension of A50 to july. Or longer for a second vote or a general election.

They have not yet received any request or question from the UK about this. ”but we follow the discussions in the UK via the press as anyone else”.

They are also hinting they would be open to discussion on a permanent customs union and this would in turn reduce the demands on the backstop.

So if the tories are willing to do a softer brexit than they tried to go for the EU is willing to discuss it. 

Theresa May would be offered a letter today about the current backstop. ”EU downplayed the expectations”.

https://www.theguardian.com/po...P=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by thebigfredc

I remember the debate following the referendum about whether Parliament would be given a meaningful vote. Since the courts decision to state the pre-eminence of Parliament and with the subsequent relegation of the referendum to advisory - it occurs to me that as the HoC is stacked in favour of Remain then the last 3 years of campaigning, debate etc may well have been a complete waste of time. So much for democracy.

 

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Jude2012
thebigfredc posted:

I remember the debate following the referendum about whether Parliament would be given a meaningful vote. Since the courts decision to state the pre-eminence of Parliament and with the subsequent relegation of the referendum to advisory - it occurs to me that as the HoC is stacked in favour of Remain then the last 3 years of campaigning, debate etc may well have been a complete waste of time. So much for democracy.

 

You don't seem to accept parliament as an integral part of UK’s democratic process

Posted on: 13 January 2019 by Jude2012
Razor posted:

Corbyn is a hard line socialist. He would happily make everyone equally poor as has happened in Venezuela.

Place elaborate on how Venezuela’s economic policies and Socialist government compare to the U.K. 

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Bruce Woodhouse
Jude2012 posted:
thebigfredc posted:

I remember the debate following the referendum about whether Parliament would be given a meaningful vote. Since the courts decision to state the pre-eminence of Parliament and with the subsequent relegation of the referendum to advisory - it occurs to me that as the HoC is stacked in favour of Remain then the last 3 years of campaigning, debate etc may well have been a complete waste of time. So much for democracy.

 

You don't seem to accept parliament as an integral part of UK’s democratic process

...and that is one of the nerdily fascinating issues this week. We do not have government by some sort of Athenian democracy yet we chose to make the Brexit decision in a referendum (where I would remind people a majority of a single vote would have been adequate) without any clarification of what may happen if Parliament (who actually make things happen) failed to agree or make progress.

We also have a situation where the Govt (which in effect is appointed by the Queen) may be at odds with the executive I.e. Parliament about how things move forward. This is the situation that appears to be being highlighted by Bercow and his actions last week. I did hear a very interesting debate a few nights ago indicating that Bercow is representing the power of Parliament in terms of getting things done when the conventions of the cabinet and the ruling party being able to set the agenda and the timetable are breaking down.

Anyway Parliament vs Monarch worked out really well in the past. Sharpen that axe!

Bruce

(I wonder if at some stage we might decide to write a UK constitution on the back of all this)

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Don Atkinson

A written constitution ?

How long would that take to draft and get through Parliament ?

....... and The Welsh Assembly.........and Stormont........and the Scottish Parliament ?

I vote that we continue to just muddle through !

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Innocent Bystander

It was so easy before Magna Carter!

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Dozey

The Magna Carta has been repealed ...

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Huge
Dozey posted:

The Magna Carta has been repealed ...

Some parts yes, but not all of it.

Posted on: 14 January 2019 by Adam Meredith
Huge posted:
Debs, you can tell the elephant's got sense though - it's female!

Weird - I could have sworn I saw a cock between its legs.