Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

fatcat posted:
Resurrection posted:
 

The same old, same old, brexiteers saying there can’t be another preferendum (because it was, just an exercise to find out the preference of the UK voters), and giving no valid reason why.

But, I doubt there will be another preferendum. The silent majority, the less extreme MP’s will get together, unite and not let brexit happen. It’s the only sensible outcome.

No point in a second preferendum, quitting the EU isn’t really a viable option.

 

 LOL  

Desperate stuff.

Great comeback.

Are you a genius with small hands and a comb over.

No, I am much better than that! 🤓

Huge posted:
Resurrection posted:
 Huge

You are conflating the Eurozone with the EU, do you not understand the difference?

So to answer part of your question; yes, definitely obtuse.

You are splitting Huge hairs....

Given that UK is not in the Eurozone and it was never proposed by the Remainers that the UK would join the Eurozone, then the distinction, rather than being a split hair, is actually very apposite.

Furthermore, your trivialisation of the difference suggests that, either you really don't understand the difference, or you are indeed being deliberately obtuse so as to obfuscate the point.

Did I ever say that the UK was in the Eurozone? The countries referred to in today's FT IC article are in the EUROZONE i.e. they are fully subscribed to the constraints of the Euro and, wait for it, are in the European Union. So, conflating the Eurozone with the EU is very apposite.

What is obtuse about highlighting the personal debt exposure across the individual nations and therefore their individual banking sectors inhabiting the Great Kleptocracy? Trying to deflect issues away from the financial mess accruing in the EU is, IMHO, very obtuse. Yes, we do appear thankfully to be sleepwalking away from the financial disaster in waiting, which is the EU.

I find shredding Remainers petulant, arrogant and irrational 'arguments' a great appetiser for my lunch. 🤓

Resurrection posted:
Eloise posted:
Resurrection posted:

"Eurozone bad debt, estimated at €944 billion, has hampered new lending and return on equity at all too many banks over the last decade. In absolute terms Bloomberg reports that Italian lenders are nursing a cool €224 billion in problem loans, followed by France with €142 billion and Spain €131 billion. As a percentage of total loans Greece and Cyprus have somewhere between 25 and 50 per cent of loans in arrears, Ireland, Portugal, and the Balkans between 10 and 25 per cent."

Just a minute - are we talking about personal and private debt here, or government borrowings?

Looks like personal debt Eloise which, to me, is the sharp end as their individual country banks are becoming terribly exposed. But, I am happy to hear a different take on it.

By comparison, personal debt in the UK was £1,566 billion as of November 2017
(http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/);

of which unsecured debt accounts for "close to £300 billion".
(https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-a...ssing-millions1.html).


So the UK's just as bad!

Eloise posted:
fatcat posted:

So, Boris has just said. Not going through with brexit will be disastrous for the UK.

Well, he wouldn’t have said that if he didn’t think there is a serious possibility it will happen.......

Did he actually specify who it would be disastrous for? ... surely not going through with Brexit would be disastrous for Boris Johnson is all that matters in that speech!

Spot on, Eloise. Boris gives the strong impression that his top priority is himself.  He already has many doubting his credibility. If Brexit doesn't happen his credibility would be completely shot. 

Resurrection posted:

Did I ever say that the UK was in the Eurozone? The countries referred to in today's FT IC article are in the EUROZONE i.e. they are fully subscribed to the constraints of the Euro and, wait for it, are in the European Union. So, conflating the Eurozone with the EU is very apposite.

What is obtuse about highlighting the personal debt exposure across the individual nations and therefore their individual banking sectors inhabiting the Great Kleptocracy? Trying to deflect issues away from the financial mess accruing in the EU is, IMHO, very obtuse. Yes, we do appear thankfully to be sleepwalking away from the financial disaster in waiting, which is the EU.

I find shredding Remainers petulant, arrogant and irrational 'arguments' a great appetiser for my lunch. 🤓

It's obtuse as you're implying that a particular type of financial crisis in one subset of countries that obey specific fiscal rules, must perforce apply to a wider set of countries that do not have to comply with those fiscal rules.

That assumption is fundamentally flawed.

Furthermore, it can be seen by your continued defence of your implication above that: Either you don't understand the relationship between the Eurozone and the EU, or you know that the assumption (or implication) is fundamentally flawed and you are obfuscating matters to cover up the logical error.

Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

As Brexit negotiations progress more of the implications are becoming clearer to very many more people, businesses and other organisations. More and more worries are being expressed.  The Remainers (like me) will argue that this increasing awareness justifies a rethink. The Brexiteers seem implacable and argue that these worries are misplaced.  That difference of view seems to be dividing MPs too. What I find puzzling is the political judgements seemingly being made in the Conservative party in all this.  If the worries being expressed about Brexit turn out to be right the electorate won't blame themselves for making the wrong call in the referendum; they will blame the party in government when the referendum was conducted and the (same) party who conducted the Brexit negotiations.  Such a outcome would be calamitous for the Conservative party.  Its regular assertion about the dangers of 'letting Corbyn in' is weak and of diminishing relevance for the electorate because fewer and fewer of the electorate will know what 'old Labour' is.  

I would have thought that political pragmatism would drive the majority of Conservatives to seek more validation from the electorate that the nature of the Brexit they eventually negotiate is what is wanted. Without it I think the Conservative party is taking a massive, massive gamble, for the country of course, but also for its own future. No wonder Corbyn is trying to keep his head down on Brexit.  

Corbyn is a Brexiteer everyone knows that. His Party is paralysed due to his inability to admit it. He can't even raise a question on PMQs in fear of having to disclose his position.

I agree, Resurrection. But Corbyn's opportunism here is a side-point really. Wouldn't you agree that there is something in my main argument of the massive risk that the Conservative party is running by heading on their current course?

Innocent Bystander posted:
Resurrection posted:
 

But you haven’t answered the question - why are Brexiteers so afraid of a confirmatory referendum? If you and others are so confident it is what the people want, I’m surprised you don’t welcome the suggestion as a way of shutting up the rest of us once and for all, as well as strengthening the hand of the Conservative party presently in power to do the job and with the confidence that the public really are behind them.

Once the 1st Referendum has been implemented fully and the dust has settled and if there was self evidently an appetite for a confirmatory Referendum, then who am I to disagree? In fact, if Corbyn or a Soubry led Conservative Party got into power nothing could stop them holding another Referendum, even one that said that 48% to stay in was to be seen as a victory. 

So you can’t answer the question? It is clear to the rest of us that it is because you fear that in fact the majority of people really would like to remain in the EU. (And as previously indicated I am talking about a referendum before Brexit happens,)

Your senseless observation that there’s nothing to prevent a fresh referendum after Brexit has happened is not even worthy of comment. 

Firstly, apologies for including all of the above, my iPad won't play the game at the moment. 

Secondly, let me break it gently to you: I don't want another Referendum. I was just indulging your deepest wishes. I, me personally, won the 1st and only Referendum and have no intention of doing best of however many it takes to give you a victory!

However senseless you and other Remainers may think my comments you have not given me any justifiable reason other than to sit here and take potshots at your highly amusing and desperate whining. 🤓

 

By comparison, personal debt in the UK was £1,566 billion as of November 2017
(http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/);

of which unsecured debt accounts for "close to £300 billion".
(https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-a...ssing-millions1.html).


So the UK's just as bad!

 

By comparison, personal debt in the UK was £1,566 billion as of November 2017

(http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/);

of which unsecured debt accounts for "close to £300 billion".
(https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-a...ssing-millions1.html).


So the UK's just as bad!

"Eurozone Bad Debt"

You really do trip over your unassailable desire to be right. 

Oh, and I did trim the comment by abandoning the iPad for the MacBook.

It's obtuse as you're implying that a particular type of financial crisis in one subset of countries that obey specific fiscal rules, must perforce apply to a wider set of countries that do not have to comply with those fiscal rules.

That assumption is fundamentally flawed.

Furthermore, it can be seen by your continued defence of your implication above that: Either you don't understand the relationship between the Eurozone and the EU, or you know that the assumption (or implication) is fundamentally flawed and you are obfuscating matters to cover up the logical error.

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

Resurrection posted:

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

And what, pray, has a personal attack on my literacy got to do with Brexit?

Resurrection posted:

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

I suspect that was more a typo of "of course". Of course I am didn't write the sentence myself so I wouldn't know...

Okay I find I am wrong and its a word ... 

Resurrection posted:

Secondly, let me break it gently to you: I don't want another Referendum. I was just indulging your deepest wishes. I, me personally, won the 1st and only Referendum and have no intention of doing best of however many it takes to give you a victory!

Hey something we agree on... I don't want another referendum either!  

I think Theresa May should stand up and say "You know what ... this leaving the EU lark is a really bad idea.  We held a referendum on it to try and placate you but the truth is the problems of the UK are our own fault and the EU aren't to blame.  So we're going to withdraw our Article 50 declaration and concentrate on actually doing what my campaign promised and build a country which works for everyone.  That might mean some more immigrants come in ... thats great because they help the economy grow.  And in growing that economy we will invest in the NHS so that it works for everyone; we will invest in housing and set minimum standards so that no one has to go homeless or put up with a home which isn't fit for habitation and we will invest in the infrastructure this country needs.  As my work over the last year has shown, we can grow trade with other nations outside the EU while keeping our important trade links with the EU through the Single Market and Customs Union".

Of course she won't do that ... but I don't want another referendum!

Eloise posted:
Resurrection posted:

Secondly, let me break it gently to you: I don't want another Referendum. I was just indulging your deepest wishes. I, me personally, won the 1st and only Referendum and have no intention of doing best of however many it takes to give you a victory!

Hey something we agree on... I don't want another referendum either!  

I think Theresa May should stand up and say "You know what ... this leaving the EU lark is a really bad idea.  We held a referendum on it to try and placate you but the truth is the problems of the UK are our own fault and the EU aren't to blame.  So we're going to withdraw our Article 50 declaration and concentrate on actually doing what my campaign promised and build a country which works for everyone.  That might mean some more immigrants come in ... thats great because they help the economy grow.  And in growing that economy we will invest in the NHS so that it works for everyone; we will invest in housing and set minimum standards so that no one has to go homeless or put up with a home which isn't fit for habitation and we will invest in the infrastructure this country needs.  As my work over the last year has shown, we can grow trade with other nations outside the EU while keeping our important trade links with the EU through the Single Market and Customs Union".

Of course she won't do that ... but I don't want another referendum!

Right sentiment but wrong party, I think, Eloise. 

MDS posted:
Resurrection posted:
MDS posted:

As Brexit negotiations progress more of the implications are becoming clearer to very many more people, businesses and other organisations. More and more worries are being expressed.  The Remainers (like me) will argue that this increasing awareness justifies a rethink. The Brexiteers seem implacable and argue that these worries are misplaced.  That difference of view seems to be dividing MPs too. What I find puzzling is the political judgements seemingly being made in the Conservative party in all this.  If the worries being expressed about Brexit turn out to be right the electorate won't blame themselves for making the wrong call in the referendum; they will blame the party in government when the referendum was conducted and the (same) party who conducted the Brexit negotiations.  Such a outcome would be calamitous for the Conservative party.  Its regular assertion about the dangers of 'letting Corbyn in' is weak and of diminishing relevance for the electorate because fewer and fewer of the electorate will know what 'old Labour' is.  

I would have thought that political pragmatism would drive the majority of Conservatives to seek more validation from the electorate that the nature of the Brexit they eventually negotiate is what is wanted. Without it I think the Conservative party is taking a massive, massive gamble, for the country of course, but also for its own future. No wonder Corbyn is trying to keep his head down on Brexit.  

Corbyn is a Brexiteer everyone knows that. His Party is paralysed due to his inability to admit it. He can't even raise a question on PMQs in fear of having to disclose his position.

I agree, Resurrection. But Corbyn's opportunism here is a side-point really. Wouldn't you agree that there is something in my main argument of the massive risk that the Conservative party is running by heading on their current course?

I will include the whole of MDS' point as it is of course relevant. The immovable focus of the media, Remainers and Westminster solely on Brexit is not necessarily seen with the same sort of 'enthusiasm' in the country at large. For many, the argument has come and gone and they would rather see the plenty of other ills getting some attention.

Political popularity waxes and wains. There is a chance that the Tory party will skewer itself on Brexit alone, but there will be plenty of other considerations taken into account when they are judged at the next General Election. Using Brexit as a 'calming' influence in the country is a lost cause, as neither side will give an inch and, in my opinion, Corbyn is astute in avoiding the issue as it will create for himself more damage than good and why should he when the Tories will rip themselves apart quite happily on Brexit alone.

People are just as likely to punish the Tories for too much focus on Brexit, lack of competent implementation and casual disregard of the wills of the voters by people like Soubry whose constituents did vote for Brexit. She has single mindedly and arrogantly focused on her own wishes rather than those of her constituents so I suspect that's one less Tory MP at the next election. 

Eloise posted:
Resurrection posted:

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

I suspect that was more a typo of "of course". Of course I am didn't write the sentence myself so I wouldn't know...

Okay I find I am wrong and its a word ... 

"I am didn't write the sentence myself.' We are all allowed to make the odd mistake Eloise....

Eloise posted:
Resurrection posted:

Secondly, let me break it gently to you: I don't want another Referendum. I was just indulging your deepest wishes. I, me personally, won the 1st and only Referendum and have no intention of doing best of however many it takes to give you a victory!

Hey something we agree on... I don't want another referendum either!  

I think Theresa May should stand up and say "You know what ... this leaving the EU lark is a really bad idea.  We held a referendum on it to try and placate you but the truth is the problems of the UK are our own fault and the EU aren't to blame.  So we're going to withdraw our Article 50 declaration and concentrate on actually doing what my campaign promised and build a country which works for everyone.  That might mean some more immigrants come in ... thats great because they help the economy grow.  And in growing that economy we will invest in the NHS so that it works for everyone; we will invest in housing and set minimum standards so that no one has to go homeless or put up with a home which isn't fit for habitation and we will invest in the infrastructure this country needs.  As my work over the last year has shown, we can grow trade with other nations outside the EU while keeping our important trade links with the EU through the Single Market and Customs Union".

Of course she won't do that ... but I don't want another referendum!

I like your logic Eloise and to keep the allusion slightly musical: "Nice Dream" 

With all the talk the Leave campaigns have about taking back control and about how the EU is ruled by unelected bureaucrats ... interesting how Boris Johnson's call for remain supporters to embrace the realities of Brexit and help make it work was held at the Policy Exchange a hugely influential think tank run by a body of unelected "thinkers" and who have directly influenced so much of Theresa May's thinking on Brexit.

Resurrection posted:

(http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/);

of which unsecured debt accounts for "close to £300 billion".
(https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-a...ssing-millions1.html).


So the UK's just as bad!

"Eurozone Bad Debt"

You really do trip over your unassailable desire to be right. 

Oh, and I did trim the comment by abandoning the iPad for the MacBook.

How do you define Bad debt, particularly in an international context?

How do you distinguish this from doubtful debt, at least sufficiently to get precise figures.

Individual lenders can't agree, never mind individual countries.

By the Bloomberg statistics you quoted, the UK's current bad debt stands at £67bn the fifth highest quoted, and more than Germany, and both Portugal and Ireland which you quoted as particularly bad examples.  Furthermore you failed to mention that, according to those same statistics, overall the level of 'bad debt' in the Eurozone has decreased by more than 20% in the last 2 years and the rate of decrease is increasing.
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news...th-these-five-charts)

Overall the Eurozone isn't in too bad shape as it is now getting to grips with the problem and has it under control

 

Overall the Eurozone isn't in too bad shape as it is now getting to grips with the problem and has it under control

I guess that was what the Financial Times and Investors Chronicle might have been saying but somehow I doubt it. Don't you ever think you might be making a HUGE mistake putting so much faith in the EU?

Resurrection posted:

Been waiting on you Adam. I have some lovely fresh figures for you to digest. All is not so well in EU paradise.

"Eurozone bad debt, estimated at €944 billion, has hampered new lending and return on equity at all too many banks over the last decade. In absolute terms Bloomberg reports that Italian lenders are nursing a cool €224 billion in problem loans, followed by France with €142 billion and Spain €131 billion. As a percentage of total loans Greece and Cyprus have somewhere between 25 and 50 per cent of loans in arrears, Ireland, Portugal, and the Balkans between 10 and 25 per cent."

Obtuse  and assumptive enough for you?

Your quote in the second paragraph is factually incorrect:  That quote is from Investors Chronicle and is inaccurate.

The actual quote from Bloomberg is
"For European banks, it’s a headache that just won’t go away: the 944 billion euros ($1.17 trillion) of non-performing loans that’s weighing down their balance sheets."

Resurrection posted:
 

Overall the Eurozone isn't in too bad shape as it is now getting to grips with the problem and has it under control

I guess that was what the Financial Times and Investors Chronicle might have been saying but somehow I doubt it. Don't you ever think you might be making a HUGE mistake putting so much faith in the EU?

I'm not putting much faith in the EU, just as I'm not putting much faith in the UK government either, and certainly not putting any faith at all into the Brexit mantra when almost all the evidence indicates that it'll leave the UK worse off.

It seems that Brexit does require faith - it requires it in the same way as religion: To believe when all the objective evidence is to the contrary!

Eloise posted:
Resurrection posted:

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

I suspect that was more a typo of "of course". Of course I am didn't write the sentence myself so I wouldn't know...

Okay I find I am wrong and its a word ... 

Interesting how Resurrection objected to 'perforce' but didn't even mention my use of 'obfuscate'; curious. 

Resurrection posted:
Innocent Bystander posted:
 

So you can’t answer the question? It is clear to the rest of us that it is because you fear that in fact the majority of people really would like to remain in the EU. (And as previously indicated I am talking about a referendum before Brexit happens,)

Your senseless observation that there’s nothing to prevent a fresh referendum after Brexit has happened is not even worthy of comment. 

Firstly, apologies for including all of the above, my iPad won't play the game at the moment. 

Secondly, let me break it gently to you: I don't want another Referendum. I was just indulging your deepest wishes. I, me personally, won the 1st and only Referendum and have no intention of doing best of however many it takes to give you a victory!

However senseless you and other Remainers may think my comments you have not given me any justifiable reason other than to sit here and take potshots at your highly amusing and desperate whining. 🤓

So, the reason you don’t want another referendum is because you don’t want it. If that is your only or best reason, then is simply petulance, and I put it to you that deep down you recognise that the electorate would vote resoundingly not to Brexit, and the minority like you would lose your chance of gaining whatever it is you see as a gain from leaving, which is why you are afraid to let it go to a vote based on the greater knowledge poeple now have. Sad.

And it was you personally who won? I thought it was a vote on a decision choice, and not a competition, and even if the ‘camps’ were seen as competing sides (which they weren’t to me), are you declaring that your real identity is Nigel Farage, self-proclaimed leader of the Brexit campain?

By the way, who said best of how many times? And when exactly did I whine?

 

Resurrection posted:
It's obtuse as you're implying that a particular type of financial crisis in one subset of countries that obey specific fiscal rules, must perforce apply to a wider set of countries that do not have to comply with those fiscal rules.

That assumption is fundamentally flawed.

Furthermore, it can be seen by your continued defence of your implication above that: Either you don't understand the relationship between the Eurozone and the EU, or you know that the assumption (or implication) is fundamentally flawed and you are obfuscating matters to cover up the logical error.

Ha! Ha! Ha! "PERFORCE" - swallowing a dictionary won't retrieve your own illogical and humiliating arguments. Blimey, and we are expected  to believe that only JRM comes from the 19th Century 

Intrigued because I thought it was a word in normal usage, if not the most frequently encountered, I looked up ‘perforce’:

First: my copy of Chambers 20th Century Dictionary, published near the end of the century, lists perforce, but does not indicate it to be archaic or obsolete.

Miriam Webster online, presumably pretty much up to date, says that the definition by physical coercion is obsolete, but by saying that it makes clear that the alternative definition by force of circumstances is not obsolete.

And it is listed in the online Oxford Living Dictionaries, without any suggestion that it is archaic or obsolete.

Even if not the most commonly used word, or not in all circles, it is clear that it is accepted as being in current English usage. Methinks the laugh is on you.

 

Frank Yang posted:

Brexit is obviously very wrong! How come that some people do not see it.

Blind trust in the politicians advocating it?

Lack of comprehension?

Lack of critical thinking?

Lack of foresight?

Xenophobia?

An "anything's got to be better than this" sentiment?

'Little Britain' attitude?

Anti-establishment sentiment?


I've encountered all of these as underlying reasons for people for supporting Brexit.


And maybe even
      Pseudo-religious faith?

Resurrection posted:
Interesting how Resurrection objected to 'perforce' but didn't even mention my use of 'obfuscate'; curious. 
 

That’s cos I used it first! 🤓

So... It's all right when you "swallow a dictionary", but not all right when someone else uses a word that's not in common usage, unless you've used it first??

Huge posted:
Resurrection posted:
Interesting how Resurrection objected to 'perforce' but didn't even mention my use of 'obfuscate'; curious. 
 

That’s cos I used it first! 🤓

So... It's all right when you "swallow a dictionary", but not all right when someone else uses a word that's not in common usage, unless you've used it first??

Such inconsistency is entirely in keeping with someone doggedly pursuing a line of Brexit campaign won, the people have spoken, Brexit must happen - blinkers on, either not seeing or ignoring anything that inconveniently shows how ridiculously stupid it is. The amazing thing is that there it is propagated by otherwise obviously intelligent people, so one wonders about their motives - of course in the cases of people in power that sometimes is obvious, but what about others?

Huge posted:

It seems that Brexit does require faith - it requires it in the same way as religion: To believe when all the objective evidence is to the contrary!

Now that's an interesting thought, Huge. Must say your analogy would fit of the behaviour I've seen when some Brexiteers are interviewed on TV. Many simply trot out their assertions and ignore any questions about the mounting evidence of consequential economic damage or say such reports are 'wrong' but cite no counter-report.  It comes across to me as unquestioning faith, and like some religious evangelists they seem to think everyone else should accept 'the faith' just because they do. Perhaps we should be glad that they are politicians and not engineers, doctors or scientists.    

Indeed, that does hit it spot on.

that leads me to wonder if their religeon has a god, and who that is. ...Nigel Farrage, perhaps? (indeed, picking the earler hint, is that Resurrection’s real identity? In fact is his/her very moniker the significant detail we’ve been missing?) Otherwise Boris, Gove. The mind boggles...  But jigsaw pieces start to fall together...

Ah, sorry boys and girls, been too busy scraping Remainders of my shoes prior to having a nice beef wellington for dinner. Too busy to play with you, but I am sure you are very much happier playing with yourselves. I have been notified of your conmmrnts and if I find anything of any substance I will respond. Still, as the bard said, you can ‘nurse yer wrath tae keep it warm.’, for all the good it will do you. 🤓

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