Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42129759

Yes, who knew Brexit would be so complicated?

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

I think what the RoI are threatening to veto is a move to trade deal negotiations, rather than the final deal, should there be one. They're basically just underlining the already stated position of the EU27 that trade talks can only begin after the border issue is settled.

Though to be honest I suspect Fox's latest intervention is less about whether the talks move on to trade, and instead is designed to make a final deal less likely.

Tuesday will be interesting, being the deadline for the publication of the UK impact studies before the govt risks being held in contempt of parliament. I'm not optimistic.

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

WTO only addresses the tariffs issue. It won't solve the Irish Land Boundary customs and immigration process issues that both governments are exercised about.  

Dave***t posted:

Tuesday will be interesting, being the deadline for the publication of the UK impact studies before the govt risks being held in contempt of parliament. I'm not optimistic.

Not optimistic about whether HMG will publish or what the impact studies reveal?  On the latter, I suspect they will reveal among other things that Brexit involves a massive increase (billions) in compliance costs for UK businesses that currently trade with the EU. 

Neither, really, but it'll be interesting either way. Either they do publish, and the contrast with the EU's equivalent documents will hopefully be enlightening. Or they don't publish, which would paint the govt in a truly awful light.

And either way it'll be interesting to see how much traction the issue gets in the UK press, especially whether the BBC covers it properly. I suspect that publish or no, Conservative HQ will be briefing heavily against talking about it at all.

MDS posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

WTO only addresses the tariffs issue. It won't solve the Irish Land Boundary customs and immigration process issues that both governments are exercised about.  

...and which might be crucial to avoid a return to the troubles and violence of the recent past.

Innocent Bystander posted:

MDS posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

WTO only addresses the tariffs issue. It won't solve the Irish Land Boundary customs and immigration process issues that both governments are exercised about.  

...and which might be crucial to avoid a return to the troubles and violence of the recent past.

Too complicated. T.I.N.A. Everyone feels they have a right to play with the UK's future post Brexit - not true. The future is our own and time we grasped it for ourselves.

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

How does WTO deal with the Irish border?

How does WTO deal with agreements over flights across the EU?

How does WTO deal with financial services?

How does WTO deal with the EU - Third Nation trade agreements that U.K. wants to keep access to?

And that’s just for starters...

(To say nothing of the question of whether the U.K. is still an independent member of the WTO any more)

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

How does WTO deal with the Irish border?

How does WTO deal with agreements over flights across the EU?

How does WTO deal with financial services?

How does WTO deal with the EU - Third Nation trade agreements that U.K. wants to keep access to?

And that’s just for starters...

(To say nothing of the question of whether the U.K. is still an independent member of the WTO any more)

See Eloise, you're already messed up in complications that can never, ever be resolved with simple dialogue which is why, in the end, we will probably drop out using WTO or commit economic suicide by trying to appease those that will never be appeased i.e. the EU. Everyone wants a mug and a mug's money which is our current EU role. 

Resurrection posted:

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

How does WTO deal with the Irish border?

How does WTO deal with agreements over flights across the EU?

How does WTO deal with financial services?

How does WTO deal with the EU - Third Nation trade agreements that U.K. wants to keep access to?

And that’s just for starters...

(To say nothing of the question of whether the U.K. is still an independent member of the WTO any more)

See Eloise, you're already messed up in complications that can never, ever be resolved with simple dialogue which is why, in the end, we will probably drop out using WTO or commit economic suicide by trying to appease those that will never be appeased i.e. the EU. Everyone wants a mug and a mug's money which is our current EU role. 

And that is the futility of Brexit...

Resurrection posted:

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

How does WTO deal with the Irish border?

How does WTO deal with agreements over flights across the EU?

How does WTO deal with financial services?

How does WTO deal with the EU - Third Nation trade agreements that U.K. wants to keep access to?

And that’s just for starters...

(To say nothing of the question of whether the U.K. is still an independent member of the WTO any more)

See Eloise, you're already messed up in complications that can never, ever be resolved with simple dialogue which is why, in the end, we will probably drop out using WTO or commit economic suicide by trying to appease those that will never be appeased i.e. the EU. Everyone wants a mug and a mug's money which is our current EU role. 

but it will all be worthwhile, won't it? After all, we never did like all these greedy foreigners anyway.

Never mind the economic minefield we are about to enter because of Brexit. Never mind the fact that we have just potentially sold our children and our childrens' children down the river. Never mind the fact that our children, along with most of the younger generation, almost certainly wouldn't have voted for Brexit had they been given a choice.  

MDS posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

WTO only addresses the tariffs issue. It won't solve the Irish Land Boundary customs and immigration process issues that both governments are exercised about.  

Exactly. I just don't see how you re-erect the customs and immigration barriers with continental Europe while leaving the Irish land border open.

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Don Atkinson posted:

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Join the EEA and (both U.K. and Ireland) sign the Schengen Agreement... solves all the problems of Brexit!

Innocent Bystander posted: 

And that is the futility of Brexit...

One of the most honest observations about Brexit and the EU came from The News Quiz: (and I paraphrase) if we weren’t already a member, it might not be the best idea for the U.K. to join the EU; but Brexit is like having already taken the bad decision to have pace maker fitted that you bought at Wikes, deciding to have it removed!

Don Atkinson posted:

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Exactement Don! March 2019 can't come quick enough for us Brexiteers. Am afraid that the only way we're going is out. It may destroy the Tory party and result in a Corbynite regime but there is still no alternative.

All of you ardent Remainers are so inwardly focused that you have not grasped the fact that there are populist uprisings all over Europe which have been caused by the arrogant, elitist, so called liberal intellectuals who have scorned at, and imposed their views on the little people for 60 years.

The worms are turning Europe wide and the democratic illusion that is the EU is being laid bare fir the kleptocratic monster that it is. The only people it helps are themselves. 

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

Not complicated. WTO and off we go!????

How does WTO deal with the Irish border?

How does WTO deal with agreements over flights across the EU?

How does WTO deal with financial services?

How does WTO deal with the EU - Third Nation trade agreements that U.K. wants to keep access to?

And that’s just for starters...

(To say nothing of the question of whether the U.K. is still an independent member of the WTO any more)

First Eloise, I agree with much of your post and I consider the whole Brexit concept and process to be an utter and unnecessary disaster - If there was any way of reversing this pathetically stupid idea we should grasp it like a drowning man would clutch a straw ! (unfortunately, I think that is where we are)

Regarding aviation, you might recall that a year gone August ie 15 months ago, some of us presented a pretty comprehensive outline of threats and opportunities to HMG if we were to leave EASA (as well as the EU). My assessment is that David Davis isn't even aware of EASA at present, never mind making any informed decision !

IMHO there are tremendous benefits in remaining part of EASA (and I don't think for one moment that more than a dozen voters even appreciated that we were going to leave EASA as well as the EU). However, International Commercial Flights are usually conducted under Rules and arrangements set out by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) which is a UN Agency HQ in Montreal.We should be able to rely on those arrangements to avoid problems with flights across Europe and the EU - assuming that David Davis (and Boris, Gove, Redwood JRM et al) don't screw things up.

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Join the EEA and (both U.K. and Ireland) sign the Schengen Agreement... solves all the problems of Brexit!

Err, we're not in the Schengen Agreement now and no one who voted for Brexit would vote for Schengen going forward. Rather like May's love affair eith the ECJ. We can check out any time but we just can't leave, eh! 

Don Atkinson posted:

 

International Commercial Flights are usually conducted under Rules and arrangements set out by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) which is a UN Agency HQ in Montreal.We should be able to rely on those arrangements to avoid problems with flights across Europe and the EU - assuming that David Davis (and Boris, Gove, Redwood JRM et al) don't screw things up.

I was thinking (and I might be mistaken here) about the ability for U.K. airlines to continue to operate flight which start and terminate in EU nations.  And (by extension) in USA as (again as I understand and I may be mistaken) this occurs under a US - EU agreement which the U.K. would no longer be party to.

(https://www.ft.com/content/d39...e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76 was what I was thinking about)

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

 

International Commercial Flights are usually conducted under Rules and arrangements set out by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) which is a UN Agency HQ in Montreal.We should be able to rely on those arrangements to avoid problems with flights across Europe and the EU - assuming that David Davis (and Boris, Gove, Redwood JRM et al) don't screw things up.

I was thinking (and I might be mistaken here) about the ability for U.K. airlines to continue to operate flight which start and terminate in EU nations.  And (by extension) in USA as (again as I understand and I may be mistaken) this occurs under a US - EU agreement which the U.K. would no longer be party to.

What you say is true, and I understand that Easyjet and one or two other UK registered airlines who operate part of their buisness like this, are setting up EU-based companies to cope with this eventuality, assuming we don't reach a better agreement.

I'm guessing that BA, through its holding company, (and others) will be looking at the USA, and elsewere.

But I agree, it is all rather unnecessary and messy.

Resurrection posted:

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Join the EEA and (both U.K. and Ireland) sign the Schengen Agreement... solves all the problems of Brexit!

Err, we're not in the Schengen Agreement now and no one who voted for Brexit would vote for Schengen going forward. Rather like May's love affair eith the ECJ. We can check out any time but we just can't leave, eh! 

I think you missed the point ... Sweden and Norway can co-operate because both are signatures of the Schengen Agreement and one is in the EU and the other in the EEA.  In addition both agree to abide by the rulings of the ECJ.

Ireland and the UK will be in very different positions compared with Sweden and Norway so can't be held up as a model of how a UK - Ireland border might work.

Resurrection posted:

Exactement Don! March 2019 can't come quick enough for us Brexiteers. Am afraid that the only way we're going is out. It may destroy the Tory party and result in a Corbynite regime but there is still no alternative.

How about it will also destroy the United Kingdom, bring conflict back to Northern Ireland, hasten the sell off of the NHS as it will no longer be affordable, bring increased austerity measures and generally bring misery to the 10s of thousands of people working in jobs that rely on easy access to the EU.

All of you ardent Remainers are so inwardly focused that you have not grasped the fact that there are populist uprisings all over Europe which have been caused by the arrogant, elitist, so called liberal intellectuals who have scorned at, and imposed their views on the little people for 60 years.

I suspect all you ardent Brexiteers have been so inwardly focussed that you have not grasped the fact that the "populist uprisings" all over Europe have mostly resulted in democratic votes for ardent European leaders...

The worms are turning Europe wide and the democratic illusion that is the EU is being laid bare fir the kleptocratic monster that it is. The only people it helps are themselves. 

Quite like the Conservative party and UKIP leadership then?

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

Eloise posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

If Sweden and Norway can co-operate, I can't see why Ireland and the UK can't, unless one or both sides are being bloody difficult !

Join the EEA and (both U.K. and Ireland) sign the Schengen Agreement... solves all the problems of Brexit!

Err, we're not in the Schengen Agreement now and no one who voted for Brexit would vote for Schengen going forward. Rather like May's love affair eith the ECJ. We can check out any time but we just can't leave, eh! 

I think you missed the point ... Sweden and Norway can co-operate because both are signatures of the Schengen Agreement and one is in the EU and the other in the EEA.  In addition both agree to abide by the rulings of the ECJ.

Ireland and the UK will be in very different positions compared with Sweden and Norway so can't be held up as a model of how a UK - Ireland border might work.

Quite right, Eloise.  The RoI/UK boundary issue is going to require a new solution. We have had the 'free travel area' arrangement with RoI for ages. I believe it predates both countries joining the EU (or EEC as it was then).  Ministers in both countries have said they want that arrangement to continue post-Brexit but it's not easy how this can be reconciled with the Brexiteers' demand to strengthen control of the UK's borders and reduce immigration. In other words, we want to control all foreign arrivals at ports and airports, yet people can travel from the RoI to the UK without a passport........hmmm.   

MDS posted:

Quite right, Eloise.  The RoI/UK boundary issue is going to require a new solution. We have had the 'free travel area' arrangement with RoI for ages. I believe it predates both countries joining the EU (or EEC as it was then).  Ministers in both countries have said they want that arrangement to continue post-Brexit but it's not easy how this can be reconciled with the Brexiteers' demand to strengthen control of the UK's borders and reduce immigration. In other words, we want to control all foreign arrivals at ports and airports, yet people can travel from the RoI to the UK without a passport........hmmm.   

You're right the UK - RoI free travel area (FTA) does predate the EU / EEC ... however as both the UK and RoI entered the EEC on the same date there has never been tested the desire for a FTA between one nation who was part of the EU with another who wasn't.

The EU has (I believe) stated they support the idea of no border between RoI and NI; however they would require a "hard" border then between NI and Great Britain - which would likely be unacceptable to DUP and Tories.  So yes everyone wants to avoid a border, but the positions are not the same on what kind of solution would be acceptable; don't forget any UK - RoI deal would have to comply with EU requirements and the EU don't want an open border where things can leak though!

As you say the position also doesn't square with "Take Control of the UK's Borders".