Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

naim_nymph posted:

The bus is doing the rounds again...

Ha! Ha! The I'm Not Bitter Battle Bus!

They're getting the facts right this time though!

BBC reporting that DUP won't support the 'progress' that's been made between HMG, EU Commission and RoI on the Irish Land Boundary question.  Some will argue that this (the DUP) is a problem of the TM's own making in calling an 'unnecessary' general election but I have some sympathy for her here.  Brexit is a big game with big stakes, and to have progress held up by the Irish Land Boundary issue - which might be a big deal for RoI and some in NI, but not for the rest of the UK - must be hugely frustrating for her. 

MDS posted:

BBC reporting that DUP won't support the 'progress' that's been made between HMG, EU Commission and RoI on the Irish Land Boundary question.  Some will argue that this (the DUP) is a problem of the TM's own making in calling an 'unnecessary' general election but I have some sympathy for her here.  Brexit is a big game with big stakes, and to have progress held up by the Irish Land Boundary issue - which might be a big deal for RoI and some in NI, but not for the rest of the UK - must be hugely frustrating for her. 

MDS,

You are quite a bit more generous with your sympathy than I can be. The Irish border was always going to be by far the most difficult issue to resolve following the referendum result. I had thought from initial reports that May and her team might just have accomplished the nearly impossible. However, it appears that the relevant parties in Northern Ireland weren't included in the negotiation process, and the DUP has scuppered any prospect of a deal. The DUP will now almost certainly be milking the situation for all its worth, and simply cannot be allowed to dictate the way forward unless they agree on a borderless solution of some sort.

There has to be a solution that avoids any prospect of a physical border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Surely, no one can argue against this. Once we agree that there can be no physical border, then how do we reconcile the other issues around free trade and free passage unless we preclude the option of a so called 'Hard Brexit'? I don't know the answer to this, and I doubt if anyone can come up with an answer that will work. 

MDS posted:

BBC reporting that DUP won't support the 'progress' that's been made between HMG, EU Commission and RoI on the Irish Land Boundary question.  Some will argue that this (the DUP) is a problem of the TM's own making in calling an 'unnecessary' general election but I have some sympathy for her here.  Brexit is a big game with big stakes, and to have progress held up by the Irish Land Boundary issue - which might be a big deal for RoI and some in NI, but not for the rest of the UK - must be hugely frustrating for her. 

Peace in the Island of Ireland is, or should be, a concern for all inhabitants of the British Isles, and not just for those that live that side of the Irish Sea. Personally I believe this is a bigger issue than how many £billions the UK has to give EU, or the Court of Human Rights etc.

I just hope that however it goes it does not result in a breakdown of what sometimes seems still fragile peace.

Hmack - I agree the Irish boundary was always going to be problematic in Brexit. But it problematic for political reasons, rather than an economic one. I have no sympathy for the DUP and, while I can understand that the economic issue for RoI is far, far more important than it is for the UK, their interests shouldn't prevent the UK leaving the EU.  Indeed a hard Brexit would be much more damaging to RoI interests. I'm sure TM knows this. And as you know, I say all this as someone who very much regrets the decision for the UK to leave the EU. 

Well it looks as though in reality there are two fundamental choices (with perhaps a few minor variances on the basic themes).

1  Remain in the Customs Union (however it's described)

2  Hard brexit, create a hard border and damn the consequences.  Then hope the IRA and Sinn Féin are prepared to accept the unilateral dismantling of the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements.

Huge posted:

Well it looks as though in reality there are two fundamental choices (with perhaps a few minor variances on the basic themes).

1  Remain in the Customs Union (however it's described)

2  Hard brexit, create a hard border and damn the consequences.  Then hope the IRA and Sinn Féin are prepared to accept the unilateral dismantling of the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements.

 3  Give the UK people a last chance saloon referendum vote, which will probably result in a landslide Remain win. Then this horrendous waste of time, money, Tory Tripe Brexit team, negotiations, dodgy deals, etc, can all be carefully filed away in the great historical dustbin of really stupid ideas.

Quote from the House of Commons 26 Nov 2002:

“Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting … we should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards.” He added: “Referendums need to be treated as an addition to the parliamentary process, not as a substitute for it.”

Now try to guess who said it  

naim_nymph posted:

Huge posted:

Well it looks as though in reality there are two fundamental choices (with perhaps a few minor variances on the basic themes).

1  Remain in the Customs Union (however it's described)

2  Hard brexit, create a hard border and damn the consequences.  Then hope the IRA and Sinn Féin are prepared to accept the unilateral dismantling of the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements.

 

3  Give the UK people a last chance saloon referendum vote, which will probably result in a landslide Remain win. Then this horrendous waste of time, money, Tory Tripe Brexit team, negotiations, dodgy deals, etc, can all be carefully filed away in the great historical dustbin of really stupid ideas.

Option 3 would then result in either 1 or 2 occurring.

(I also think you're right in that it'd most likely result in option 1, as we'd probably vote to remain in the EU when people realise we can't both have our cake and eat it as was promised).

MDS posted:

Hmack - I agree the Irish boundary was always going to be problematic in Brexit. But it problematic for political reasons, rather than an economic one. I have no sympathy for the DUP and, while I can understand that the economic issue for RoI is far, far more important than it is for the UK, their interests shouldn't prevent the UK leaving the EU.  Indeed a hard Brexit would be much more damaging to RoI interests. I'm sure TM knows this. And as you know, I say all this as someone who very much regrets the decision for the UK to leave the EU. 

MDS,

I realise that you did not want the UK to leave the EU, but I think you are seriously downplaying the risks and issues associated with the Irish boundary. 

It may be the case that a hard Brexit would be more damaging to the Republic of Ireland than it would be to the UK as a whole, although I am not entirely sure about this. I do agree that the Irish boundary is problematic for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.

However, the politics involved in the case of the Irish border is much more than simple party politics. As alluded to by Huge and others above, the return of a hard border would be downright dangerous and potentially absolutely catastrophic for both the UK and the Republic of Ireland, let alone those people who live close to the border itself. Simple economics doesn't really come into the equation. We simply cannot afford to reinstate a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. I suspect that the DUP and their close allies are the only people who feel they might benefit from such a prospect. I fear that they are playing with fire.

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

Pondering this, I can sympathise with the DUP’s views, much as I dislike everything they stand for. It would be very strange for Northern Ireland to follow the rules of the customs union and single market, and for the rest of the UK not to, with a border between Ireland and Great Britain. The answer, or an answer, and my preferred answer, is that the whole of the UK remains in the single market and customs union. That would sort the Irish border issue out, as well as ensuring that the UK doesn’t starve because we have insufficient fruit pickers. 

Don Atkinson posted:

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

 

Ah so, Dan! Whatever Brexit floats around in Remainers' minds I can probably assure you was hever prefixed by "hard" or "soft" on most Leavers minds. We wanted out of the bureaucratic, undemicratic, kleptocratic, sclerotic, autocratic nightmare that is the EU, ably emphasised by the antics of the 27, any of whom has the right to stop the EU moving forward on Brexit negotiations. Now, one stops 27 does not seem terribly democratic to me. Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

The DUP are always going to find abhorrent the idea of anything that links them closer politically to the ROI than Great Britain.

They are also find themselves in a historically powerful position with the minority Conservative government and will play their cards accordingly.

That is the reality of where the negotiations are at the moment and the politicians will have to sort it out.

Ray

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

 

Ah so, Dan! Whatever Brexit floats around in Remainers' minds I can probably assure you was hever prefixed by "hard" or "soft" on most Leavers minds. We wanted out of the bureaucratic, undemicratic, kleptocratic, sclerotic, autocratic nightmare that is the EU, ably emphasised by the antics of the 27, any of whom has the right to stop the EU moving forward on Brexit negotiations. Now, one stops 27 does not seem terribly democratic to me. Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

So which would you prefer; a return to the 'Troubles' or remaining within the Customs Union (and the implications thereof)?

thebigfredc posted:

The DUP are always going to find abhorrent the idea of anything that links them closer politically to the ROI than Great Britain.

They are also find themselves in a historically powerful position with the minority Conservative government and will play their cards accordingly.

That is the reality of where the negotiations are at the moment and the politicians will have to sort it out.

Ray

 

Indeed the Conservatives are, officially, the "Conservative and Unionist Party".

Huge posted:

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

 

Ah so, Dan! Whatever Brexit floats around in Remainers' minds I can probably assure you was hever prefixed by "hard" or "soft" on most Leavers minds. We wanted out of the bureaucratic, undemicratic, kleptocratic, sclerotic, autocratic nightmare that is the EU, ably emphasised by the antics of the 27, any of whom has the right to stop the EU moving forward on Brexit negotiations. Now, one stops 27 does not seem terribly democratic to me. Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

So which would you prefer; a return to the 'Troubles' or remaining within the Customs Union (and the implications thereof)?

And so the Remainer tactic of narrowing the argument to attemp to achieve their own desired result goes on. When we make a hard exit (to simplify it for yourself) we can return to any of these individual issues resolving them or otherwise. The EU had zero influence on the current North / South situation. However, the South feel and know they can veto the Brexit process on their own and am sure that Malta Lithuania, Poland or any other EU member will soon find a stopper suited to their own purposes, and exercise it. Nope, sorry Huge, Leave means Leave in totality but especially all the restrictive rules and practices that ties the EU and its membersin knots.

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

 

Ah so, Dan! Whatever Brexit floats around in Remainers' minds I can probably assure you was hever prefixed by "hard" or "soft" on most Leavers minds. We wanted out of the bureaucratic, undemicratic, kleptocratic, sclerotic, autocratic nightmare that is the EU, ably emphasised by the antics of the 27, any of whom has the right to stop the EU moving forward on Brexit negotiations. Now, one stops 27 does not seem terribly democratic to me. Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

Resurrection, let me guess.

You are probably  17 or 18 years old, and are simply too young to be aware of the history of the Irish border in relatively recent years. That is the only explanation I can find for what seems to be your argument in favour of a "hard border" and a "hard Brexit".

If this is the case, I suggest you carry out some research on the subject of the Irish border pre the 'peace agreements'. If this is not the case, then what is your excuse, and what is your solution to the Irish border issue?

Hungryhalibut posted:

Pondering this, I can sympathise with the DUP’s views, much as I dislike everything they stand for. It would be very strange for Northern Ireland to follow the rules of the customs union and single market, and for the rest of the UK not to, with a border between Ireland and Great Britain. The answer, or an answer, and my preferred answer, is that the whole of the UK remains in the single market and customs union. That would sort the Irish border issue out, as well as ensuring that the UK doesn’t starve because we have insufficient fruit pickers. 

HH,

I completely agree, but unfortunately John Redwood and his cronies would never agree to this, and they appear to have an inordinate control over the Conservative party at the moment.

Hmack posted:

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

Looks like Brexit on the U.K. side, is being driven by about a dozen bloody minded individuals in one direction (DUP) and another dozen bloody minded  individuals in some other direction (Redwood and Co.). Or am I confused ? Because they both seem to want a hard border somewhere,

Whaterever happened to “Democracy” ? How can so few people be allowed to f**k the lives of so many ?

 

Ah so, Dan! Whatever Brexit floats around in Remainers' minds I can probably assure you was hever prefixed by "hard" or "soft" on most Leavers minds. We wanted out of the bureaucratic, undemicratic, kleptocratic, sclerotic, autocratic nightmare that is the EU, ably emphasised by the antics of the 27, any of whom has the right to stop the EU moving forward on Brexit negotiations. Now, one stops 27 does not seem terribly democratic to me. Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

Resurrection, let me guess.

You are probably  17 or 18 years old, and are simply too young to be aware of the history of the Irish border in relatively recent years. That is the only explanation I can find for what seems to be your argument in favour of a "hard border" and a "hard Brexit".

If this is the case, I suggest you carry out some research on the subject of the Irish border pre the 'peace agreements'. If this is not the case, then what is your excuse, and what is your solution to the Irish border issue?

Hmack,

Almist wish I was seventeen or eighteen but not in this millennial, snowflake, political climate! Similarly,  am not too interested in the North South border as far as Brexit is concerned. If a notional, politically motivated argument aligned to Brexit is sufficient to reignite the Troubles then it must have been pretty unstable anyway. As a contrived reason for stoping or limiting Brexit I tip my hat to that one. Onwards and Outwards, chaps! 

Hungryhalibut posted:

Pondering this, I can sympathise with the DUP’s views, much as I dislike everything they stand for. It would be very strange for Northern Ireland to follow the rules of the customs union and single market, and for the rest of the UK not to, with a border between Ireland and Great Britain. The answer, or an answer, and my preferred answer, is that the whole of the UK remains in the single market and customs union. That would sort the Irish border issue out, as well as ensuring that the UK doesn’t starve because we have insufficient fruit pickers. 

It wouldn't be just the DUP who would find that strange. I think quite a few other stakeholders would think it abhorrent. How can it be squared with a United Kingdom?

As to your preferred solution, I'd like to see that too but then that's not Brexit, hard or soft.

Hmack posted:

MDS posted:

Hmack - I agree the Irish boundary was always going to be problematic in Brexit. But it problematic for political reasons, rather than an economic one. I have no sympathy for the DUP and, while I can understand that the economic issue for RoI is far, far more important than it is for the UK, their interests shouldn't prevent the UK leaving the EU.  Indeed a hard Brexit would be much more damaging to RoI interests. I'm sure TM knows this. And as you know, I say all this as someone who very much regrets the decision for the UK to leave the EU. 

MDS,

I realise that you did not want the UK to leave the EU, but I think you are seriously downplaying the risks and issues associated with the Irish boundary. 

It may be the case that a hard Brexit would be more damaging to the Republic of Ireland than it would be to the UK as a whole, although I am not entirely sure about this. I do agree that the Irish boundary is problematic for political reasons as well as for economic reasons.

However, the politics involved in the case of the Irish border is much more than simple party politics. As alluded to by Huge and others above, the return of a hard border would be downright dangerous and potentially absolutely catastrophic for both the UK and the Republic of Ireland, let alone those people who live close to the border itself. Simple economics doesn't really come into the equation. We simply cannot afford to reinstate a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. I suspect that the DUP and their close allies are the only people who feel they might benefit from such a prospect. I fear that they are playing with fire.

Just to be clear, Hmack, I'm not underplaying the risks of re-opening the peace agreement in NI. Nobody wants to see a return to those awful days. I'm simply suggesting that the UK should not be held to ransom by the interests of the RoI or the DUP in striving to find a negotiated Brexit deal. 

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

 

 Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

Resurrection - would you not agree that a disorderly Brexit heightens the chances of another election and Corbyn being elected? Indeed I would have thought that any supporter of the Conservative party would be keen on securing a negotiated exit on the basis of self-interest (as well as the good of the UK). 

MDS posted:

Hungryhalibut posted:

Pondering this, I can sympathise with the DUP’s views, much as I dislike everything they stand for. It would be very strange for Northern Ireland to follow the rules of the customs union and single market, and for the rest of the UK not to, with a border between Ireland and Great Britain. The answer, or an answer, and my preferred answer, is that the whole of the UK remains in the single market and customs union. That would sort the Irish border issue out, as well as ensuring that the UK doesn’t starve because we have insufficient fruit pickers. 

It wouldn't be just the DUP who would find that strange. I think quite a few other stakeholders would think it abhorrent. How can it be squared with a United Kingdom?

As to your preferred solution, I'd like to see that too but then that's not Brexit, hard or soft.

I wasn’t implying that just the DUP would find it strange. It would, as you say, have the U.K. operating under two different frameworks. Actually, I’d propose a United Ireland, but that’s another matter entirely. As it stands, we simply can not impose a hard border and border controls and risk a return to the misery, violence and death of the past. As it is, the peace is fragile and we must build on what has been achieved, rather than go crashing back to the past in order to fix another problem.