Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Sky News is reporting today that the DUP wasn't shown the text that HMG proposed to the EU Commission, yet No 10 expected the DUP to go along with the deal. Perhaps not surprising that they kicked up rough. There's quite likely an issue of trust to overcome now as well as substance. If true, this looks very clumsy handling.   

MDS posted:

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

 

 Anyway, if you want to see a real f**k up just wait and see what happens if Corbyn gets in.

Resurrection - would you not agree that a disorderly Brexit heightens the chances of another election and Corbyn being elected? Indeed I would have thought that any supporter of the Conservative party would be keen on securing a negotiated exit on the basis of self-interest (as well as the good of the UK). 

MDS,

I do have sympathy with your argument. However, one thing at a time. Corbyn is simply another front to be fought. If not Brexit he will find some other spurious Socialist argument to attempt to usurp power for his real Party, Momentum. Remember, until 2016 Corbyn had been ant-EU for his whole political career and even now he is probably quite content for the Tories to do his work for him.

If the electorate decide to punish May and the Conservatives for their demonstrable incompetence then that's what will happen, but not through my vote. For me, it's ABC, anything and anyone but Corbyn. 

Everything May does is clumsy, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise. We are being led by an incompetent Government propped up by loons. It’s bound to go well. 

Surely that would be AAABC?

Hungryhalibut posted:

Surely that would be AAABC?

If you like, but ABC is simpler! ????

naim_nymph posted:

An MP quoted in the House of Commons 26 Nov 2002:

“Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting … we should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards.” He added: “Referendums need to be treated as an addition to the parliamentary process, not as a substitute for it.”

 

Now try to guess who said it  

...no takers then??

Resurrection posted:

Huge posted:

So which would you prefer; a return to the 'Troubles' or remaining within the Customs Union (and the implications thereof)?

And so the Remainer tactic of narrowing the argument to attemp to achieve their own desired result goes on. When we make a hard exit (to simplify it for yourself) we can return to any of these individual issues resolving them or otherwise. The EU had zero influence on the current North / South situation. However, the South feel and know they can veto the Brexit process on their own and am sure that Malta Lithuania, Poland or any other EU member will soon find a stopper suited to their own purposes, and exercise it. Nope, sorry Huge, Leave means Leave in totality but especially all the restrictive rules and practices that ties the EU and its membersin knots.

"When we make a hard exit (to simplify it for yourself) we can return to any of these individual issues resolving them or otherwise."

A hard exit will necessitate a hard border between NI and RoI, as it was our presence in the EU and Customs Union that allowed the previous hard border to be dismantled.  To create a hard border between NI and the RoI will necessitate us reneging on the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements by unilaterally refusing to abide by them.  (N.B. The open border was one the main building blocks of all these agreements and it's a "Red Line" for the republicans on both sides of the border, so the other parties to the agreement are not going to agree to them being set aside - hence it will be a unilateral action reneging on the agreements).  This will result in a resurgence in Irish Republicanism on both sides of the border and most likely result in a return to the "Troubles" of the 20th Century.

This is of course unless you have a way of entirely defeating the whole principle of Irish Nationalism and Irish Identity.
(But how do you entirely defeat a political principle: it's been tried but no one has yet succeeded.  Certainly opposition by force doesn't work.  Perhaps you have the magic bullet to make this happen.  If so please let us know).

I simplified things in the vain hope that you may see the stark nature of the choice before us, rather than relying on platitudes of
"It'll all be all right (somehow; method unspecified and as yet undetermined)" .

Apparently you believe in "Leave No Matter What the Cost":  Even if that cost also includes a resurgence in IRA terrorism.  Well if that's your view then that's your view; you can at least be honest enough to accept it.

I know who it is. It's a great quote under the circumstances, albeit that it shows how depressingly far from reasonableness things have got. 

He should be made to deliver it as a lecture to the cabinet at least weekly.

He should read it back to himself, and have to go on television to explain to the electorate why he's now behaving in the exact opposite manner
(or explain why he previously tried to deceive Parliament!).

Huge posted:

Resurrection posted:

Huge posted:

So which would you prefer; a return to the 'Troubles' or remaining within the Customs Union (and the implications thereof)?

And so the Remainer tactic of narrowing the argument to attemp to achieve their own desired result goes on. When we make a hard exit (to simplify it for yourself) we can return to any of these individual issues resolving them or otherwise. The EU had zero influence on the current North / South situation. However, the South feel and know they can veto the Brexit process on their own and am sure that Malta Lithuania, Poland or any other EU member will soon find a stopper suited to their own purposes, and exercise it. Nope, sorry Huge, Leave means Leave in totality but especially all the restrictive rules and practices that ties the EU and its membersin knots.

"When we make a hard exit (to simplify it for yourself) we can return to any of these individual issues resolving them or otherwise."

A hard exit will necessitate a hard border between NI and RoI, as it was our presence in the EU and Customs Union that allowed the previous hard border to be dismantled.  To create a hard border between NI and the RoI will necessitate us reneging on the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements by unilaterally refusing to abide by them.  (N.B. The open border was one the main building blocks of all these agreements and it's a "Red Line" for the republicans on both sides of the border, so the other parties to the agreement are not going to agree to them being set aside - hence it will be a unilateral action reneging on the agreements).  This will result in a resurgence in Irish Republicanism on both sides of the border and most likely result in a return to the "Troubles" of the 20th Century.

This is of course unless you have a way of entirely defeating the whole principle of Irish Nationalism and Irish Identity.
(But how do you entirely defeat a political principle: it's been tried but no one has yet succeeded.  Certainly opposition by force doesn't work.  Perhaps you have the magic bullet to make this happen.  If so please let us know).

I simplified things in the vain hope that you may see the stark nature of the choice before us, rather than relying on platitudes of
"It'll all be all right (somehow; method unspecified and as yet undetermined)" .

Apparently you believe in "Leave No Matter What the Cost":  Even if that cost also includes a resurgence in IRA terrorism.  Well if that's your view then that's your view; you can at least be honest enough to accept it.

Do you want to talk about Irish Nationalism or Brexit? If you want to conflate these disparate issues then we might as well add Kim Jong Un into this whole ridiculous farce. When we decided to Leave we decided to make or break all our own decisions. Listening to Cable and the Labour Brexit mouthpiece at the moment on Daily Politics just shows how unlikely anything but a hard Brexit is. We are being told that we cannot hurt anyone else's feelings as part of this process, even if we have no intention or demonstrable interest in hurting their feelings.

The quote in question was in reference to having a Scottish Referendum some time before it happened but his principles certainly don't apply to the UK/EU Referendum. Shame he don't practise what he preaches.

Click on link below for answer:

https://www.theguardian.com/bu...history-or-influence

naim_nymph posted:

The quote in question was in reference to having a Scottish Referendum some time before it happened but his principles certainly don't apply to the UK/EU Referendum. Shame he don't practise what he preaches.

Click on link below for answer:

https://www.theguardian.com/bu...history-or-influence

Blimey, my heart was pounding, my palms sweating while I held my nose and made the leap to that newspaper. Wasn't really worth it unless you read that newspaper regularly. Is what we are doing at the moment classified as work in the BBC? Unless of course you are a Socialist "Worker". 

Huge posted:

He should read it back to himself, and have to go on television to explain to the electorate why he's now behaving in the exact opposite manner
(or explain why he previously tried to deceive Parliament!).

Previously? He's currently engaged in doing so, and faces investigation for contempt of parliament!

It mystifies me that more hasn't been made of the impact papers story, but I suppose it's not important enough, and there's insufficient media will - yet alone political will - to pursue it properly.

It's quite a good quote, and a sentiment that I would support. I am pretty sure that its author is probably more than a little uncomfortable with his current role in the process.

MDS posted:

"Just to be clear, Hmack, I'm not underplaying the risks of re-opening the peace agreement in NI. Nobody wants to see a return to those awful days. I'm simply suggesting that the UK should not be held to ransom by the interests of the RoI or the DUP in striving to find a negotiated Brexit deal".

Hi MDS,

I do understand your position, but I just don't think that in this case the ROI is playing political games and holding the UK to ransom. They are almost certainly as worried about the prospect and dangers of a reinstated hard border as is the UK. I don't  think that in this instance economic factors (although extremely important to the people of both sides of the border) are the prime issue here for either side.  On the other hand, I do believe that the DUP is playing political football with their position, and they need to be extremely careful about what they do and say  as we approach Brexit.

As a matter of fact, although I wouldn't trust the current Tory politicians as far as I could throw them, I would be willing to bet that the eventual agreement (if we do get one) will not see the return of a hard border. Even our negotiators and the majority of the members the Tory party Cabinet will understand the danger and utter foolishness of letting this happen and will find a way to come to a compromise of some sort with Europe on this even if it means ditching their alliance with the DUP.  

Redirection posted: 

Do you want to talk about Irish Nationalism or Brexit? If you want to conflate these disparate issues then we might as well add Kim Jong Un into this whole ridiculous farce. When we decided to Leave we decided to make or break all our own decisions. Listening to Cable and the Labour Brexit mouthpiece at the moment on Daily Politics just shows how unlikely anything but a hard Brexit is. We are being told that we cannot hurt anyone else's feelings as part of this process, even if we have no intention or demonstrable interest in hurting their feelings.

Do you really think that Irish Nationalism and Brexit are completely disparate issues, and that this whole issue is about "hurting someone's feelings"? I'm afraid that the comment above shows that you simply have not got a clue! 

Are you prepared to fund the additional funding that would be required to return the British Army to Northern Ireland, and are you happy to live with the consequence of that and the impact on people of all sides of the 'divide' just to satisfy your own personal dogmatic approach to Brexit? Trouble is that having read your recent posts, I think that you probably are.

Resurrection posted:

Do you want to talk about Irish Nationalism or Brexit? If you want to conflate these disparate issues then we might as well add Kim Jong Un into this whole ridiculous farce. When we decided to Leave we decided to make or break all our own decisions. Listening to Cable and the Labour Brexit mouthpiece at the moment on Daily Politics just shows how unlikely anything but a hard Brexit is. We are being told that we cannot hurt anyone else's feelings as part of this process, even if we have no intention or demonstrable interest in hurting their feelings.

Well, well, resorting to reductio ad absurdum: Now that's a weak debating tactic, particularly for someone who previously accused me of oversimplification!

Whether you like it or not border controls (and the political implications thereof) are an issue for brexit - you can't just brush it under the table.  Especially given the brexit mantra of take back control of our borders!

"When we decided to Leave we decided to make or break all our own decisions."

So, make your decision...  Do you want to renege on the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements, create hard border with the RoI and damn the consequences; even if that consequence is a likely resurgence of Irish Republican terrorism?

Hmack posted:

MDS posted:

"Just to be clear, Hmack, I'm not underplaying the risks of re-opening the peace agreement in NI. Nobody wants to see a return to those awful days. I'm simply suggesting that the UK should not be held to ransom by the interests of the RoI or the DUP in striving to find a negotiated Brexit deal".

Hi MDS,

I do understand your position, but I just don't think that in this case the ROI is playing political games and holding the UK to ransom. They are almost certainly as worried about the prospect and dangers of a reinstated hard border as is the UK. I don't  think that in this instance economic factors (although extremely important to the people of both sides of the border) are the prime issue here for either side.  On the other hand, I do believe that the DUP is playing political football with their position, and they need to be extremely careful about what they do and say  as we approach Brexit.

As a matter of fact, although I wouldn't trust the current Tory politicians as far as I could throw them, I would be willing to bet that the eventual agreement (if we do get one) will not see the return of a hard border. Even our negotiators and the majority of the members the Tory party Cabinet will understand the danger and utter foolishness of letting this happen and will find a way to come to a compromise of some sort with Europe on this even if it means ditching their alliance with the DUP.  

Thanks, Hmack. I think we're pretty much in agreement.  As it happens I think that it will possible to continue to have trade and movement across the Irish Land Boundary without resorting to controls associated with a hard border.  Technology and post-event audit controls could adequately cover the vast majority of current trade and movement.  Of course that won't be 100% and so this will test politicians' risk appetite (and TM was known to have a very low risk appetite on immigration controls when she was Home Secretary) but for all practical purposes this could be made to work.  But the politics could be difficult. For example, apart from the RoI/UK views, the rest of the EU would have to accept that there will be a bit of the EU's external frontier with a third country where the normal border controls on people and goods are not applied.  

Resurrection posted:

Blimey, my heart was pounding, my palms sweating while I held my nose and made the leap to that newspaper. Wasn't really worth it unless you read that newspaper regularly. Is what we are doing at the moment classified as work in the BBC? Unless of course you are a Socialist "Worker". 

 Resurrection, your reply is incomprehensible blather, i don't have the foggiest what trying to say.

Debs

Hmack posted:

Redirection posted: 

 

Do you really think that Irish Nationalism and Brexit are completely disparate issues, and that this whole issue is about "hurting someone's feelings"? I'm afraid that the comment above shows that you simply have not got a clue! 

Are you prepared to fund the additional funding that would be required to return the British Army to Northern Ireland, and are you happy to live with the consequence of that and the impact on people of all sides of the 'divide' just to satisfy your own personal dogmatic approach to Brexit? Trouble is that having read your recent posts, I think that you probably are.

I've told you before this is nothing to do with Brexit unless you are too intransigent to see it. If Southern Ireland want to muddy the waters further then so be it. Have to sort it out in 2019.

naim_nymph posted:

Resurrection posted:

Blimey, my heart was pounding, my palms sweating while I held my nose and made the leap to that newspaper. Wasn't really worth it unless you read that newspaper regularly. Is what we are doing at the moment classified as work in the BBC? Unless of course you are a Socialist "Worker". 

 Resurrection, your reply is incomprehensible blather, i don't have the foggiest what trying to say.

Debs

I think he's trying to accuse you of being a member of the SWP.

I used to have fun with them when they quoted Marx to me.  I quoted Marx back to them, except I quoted Groucho Marx!"

Huge posted:

Well, well, resorting to reductio ad absurdum: Now that's a weak debating tactic, particularly for someone who previously accused me of oversimplification!

Whether you like it or not border controls (and the political implications thereof) are an issue for brexit - you can't just brush it under the table.  Especially given the brexit mantra of take back control of our borders!

"When we decided to Leave we decided to make or break all our own decisions."

So, make your decision...  Do you want to renege on the Good Friday, St Andrews and Stormont House agreements, create hard border with the RoI and damn the consequences; even if that consequence is a likely resurgence of Irish Republican terrorism?

Talk about absurdum! As I told you, why not add Obama, Trump and Kim Jong Un to your weird argument. Sovereignty, Border Control, Judicial Control and Financial Control. You can argue the toss about the rest as much as you like. 

Huge posted:

....except I quoted Groucho Marx!"

I'd vote for him! : )

"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."

Huge posted:

 

 Resurrection, your reply is incomprehensible blather, i don't have the foggiest what trying to say.

Debs

I think he's trying to accuse you of being a member of the SWP.

I used to have fun with them when they quoted Marx to me.  I quoted Marx back to them, except I quoted Groucho Marx!"

Yep, you're all in the same Club to which I don't subscribe, Socialist or EU.

Sorry Debs, a wee joke about my distaste for the Grauniad and Socialists, oh, and the EU. 

MDS posted:

Hmack posted:

MDS posted:

"Just to be clear, Hmack, I'm not underplaying the risks of re-opening the peace agreement in NI. Nobody wants to see a return to those awful days. I'm simply suggesting that the UK should not be held to ransom by the interests of the RoI or the DUP in striving to find a negotiated Brexit deal".

Hi MDS,

I do understand your position, but I just don't think that in this case the ROI is playing political games and holding the UK to ransom. They are almost certainly as worried about the prospect and dangers of a reinstated hard border as is the UK. I don't  think that in this instance economic factors (although extremely important to the people of both sides of the border) are the prime issue here for either side.  On the other hand, I do believe that the DUP is playing political football with their position, and they need to be extremely careful about what they do and say  as we approach Brexit.

As a matter of fact, although I wouldn't trust the current Tory politicians as far as I could throw them, I would be willing to bet that the eventual agreement (if we do get one) will not see the return of a hard border. Even our negotiators and the majority of the members the Tory party Cabinet will understand the danger and utter foolishness of letting this happen and will find a way to come to a compromise of some sort with Europe on this even if it means ditching their alliance with the DUP.  

Thanks, Hmack. I think we're pretty much in agreement.  As it happens I think that it will possible to continue to have trade and movement across the Irish Land Boundary without resorting to controls associated with a hard border.  Technology and post-event audit controls could adequately cover the vast majority of current trade and movement.  Of course that won't be 100% and so this will test politicians' risk appetite (and TM was known to have a very low risk appetite on immigration controls when she was Home Secretary) but for all practical purposes this could be made to work.  But the politics could be difficult. For example, apart from the RoI/UK views, the rest of the EU would have to accept that there will be a bit of the EU's external frontier with a third country where the normal border controls on people and goods are not applied.  

Now that raises an interesting possibility - that the whole of the UK become a free-port (official or unofficial) for the EU.

We arrange trade agreements with the Rest of the World, we then goods imported into NI and move them across the border into the RoI, the goods then get trans-shipped through Britain and the Channel Tunnel to the rest of the EU.

Nice little earner - that might even be enough to actually make brexit pay for itself!