Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

Davis' threat to resign will be shown up as the empty bluster it was. He will remain in post, with the man himself and assorted mouthpieces variously denying that Green was technically sacked (though he was), that Davis ever really did threaten to resign (though he did), and so on.

If he didn't go over the impact reports, which IMO was an outright episode of corruption, he won't go over this.

It does make May an even lonelier figure though, after the cabinet-enforced departure of her closest allies after the GE, now she's been forced to sack her closest remaining ally.

The IMF confirm that the U.K. economy has suffered and will continue to suffer as a result of the decision to leave the EU.

Do all Leavers consider this to be a justifiable price we ALL must bear, in return for being able to control which 300,000 EU citizens we will allow to immigrate to the U.K. each year and to allow Gove and Boris to set our legal rules - subject of course to the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court in The Hague?

Don Atkinson posted:

The IMF confirm that the U.K. economy has suffered and will continue to suffer as a result of the decision to leave the EU.

Do all Leavers consider this to be a justifiable price we ALL must bear, in return for being able to control which 300,000 EU citizens we will allow to immigrate to the U.K. each year and to allow Gove and Boris to set our legal rules - subject of course to the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court in The Hague?

 

Can’t get too excited about a .1% downgrade by the dodgy head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, not that she was ever going to say anything positive about Brexit. Never mind Donald Trump, I’d rather have Donald Duck setting our rules than anyone or anything coming out of the EU.

Although your misplaced faith in everything EU is touching, it is actually humiliating that you feel we are incapable of defining and applying our own laws. 

While I believe that the prospects for the UK’s economy are worse outside the Eu than in, I too won’t apply much weight to the IMF’s forecasts. The IMF’s credibility has taken some big knocks over recent years.

Resurrection posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

The IMF confirm that the U.K. economy has suffered and will continue to suffer as a result of the decision to leave the EU.

Do all Leavers consider this to be a justifiable price we ALL must bear, in return for being able to control which 300,000 EU citizens we will allow to immigrate to the U.K. each year and to allow Gove and Boris to set our legal rules - subject of course to the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court in The Hague?

 

Can’t get too excited about a .1% downgrade by the dodgy head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, not that she was ever going to say anything positive about Brexit. Never mind Donald Trump, I’d rather have Donald Duck setting our rules than anyone or anything coming out of the EU.

Although your misplaced faith in everything EU is touching, it is actually humiliating that you feel we are incapable of defining and applying our own laws. 

You choose to misunderstand.

Our economy and quality of life are far better within the EU than they will be outside. The depressed economy might suit you, but it doesn’t suit all the rest of us. The IMF were merely confirming what we already know. Even the Govener of the Bank of England confirmed the situation, although he tried to put a positive spin on it !

As for defining and applying our own laws (and commercial and industry standards) sure, at least Parliament will get to tinker with the Great Repeal Bill, (or whatever it is now called) but in all cases we would do well to align ourselves closely with our trading partners and like-minded derivatives of the human species. Ie International Standards and European and International Courts.

And we will continue to encourage EU migrants to the U.K. You, personally might not, but industry will.

So, in order to let Boris and Gove tinker with our rules, we will each be circa £4K pa worse off. Fantastic ! And that’s being optimistic IMHO.

Rather than a derivative of the human species [ d(human species) / dx ] prefer to be integrated into the human species [ ∫(human species) ].

Huge posted:

Rather than a derivative of the human species [ d(human species) / dx ] prefer to be integrated into the human species [ ∫(human species) ].

Bah! Beat me to it. Reply to Don later.

Don Atkinson posted:

So, in order to let Boris and Gove tinker with our rules, we will each be circa £4K pa worse off. Fantastic ! And that’s being optimistic IMHO.

Personally I think the £4k is pessimistic and is playing fast and loose with the projections by using oversimplification...

However, it all depends on the trade deal...

Best Case - A complete free trade deal (goods and services).  Open borders (although with passport checks), but limited permanent migration of EU citizens.  UK business and product law to shadow EU law (assured by treaty).  UK free to make trade deals outside the EU (but with a lot of tracking of goods by electronic means and more severe penalties for smuggling).
Years 1-2.  -£0.5k to -£1.5k
Years 2-5.  -£1k to -£2.5k
Ongoing.   +£0.5k to -£0.5k
N.B. this scenario is unlikely to be achievable, but could actually be beneficial long term.

Worst case - Hard Brexit
Years 1-2.  -£1k to -£3.5k
Years 2-7.  -£2k to -£5k
Years 7-10.  -£1k to -£3k
Ongoing.   -£0.5k to -£2.5k
In my view the -£4k could occur, but only for a relatively short time (a few years maximum).  The years 2 to 7, before trade deals with the rest of the world start to come into effect, will be very tough - the current austerity measures will seem like a minor inconvenience in comparison.  Also note that the recovery period is substantially longer in this scenario.  The border between Eire and UK will cause problems and have to be 'hardened' to some degree (even though that won't be officially acknowledged, and the position of hardening yet to be determined).  The final economic outcome may not be too bad, but the middle years will not only be tough but will damage our economy in the long term, taking decades to repair the damage.

Huge posted:

Don Atkinson posted:

So, in order to let Boris and Gove tinker with our rules, we will each be circa £4K pa worse off. Fantastic ! And that’s being optimistic IMHO.

Personally I think the £4k is pessimistic and is playing fast and loose with the projections by using oversimplification...

However, it all depends on the trade deal...

Best Case - A complete free trade deal (goods and services).  Open borders (although with passport checks), but limited permanent migration of EU citizens.  UK business and product law to shadow EU law (assured by treaty).  UK free to make trade deals outside the EU (but with a lot of tracking of goods by electronic means and more severe penalties for smuggling).
Years 1-2.  -£0.5k to -£1.5k
Years 2-5.  -£1k to -£2.5k
Ongoing.   +£0.5k to -£0.5k
N.B. this scenario is unlikely to be achievable, but could actually be beneficial long term.

Worst case - Hard Brexit
Years 1-2.  -£1k to -£3.5k
Years 2-7.  -£2k to -£5k
Years 7-10.  -£1k to -£3k
Ongoing.   -£0.5k to -£2.5k
In my view the -£4k could occur, but only for a relatively short time (a few years maximum).  The years 2 to 7, before trade deals with the rest of the world start to come into effect, will be very tough - the current austerity measures will seem like a minor inconvenience in comparison.  Also note that the recovery period is substantially longer in this scenario.  The border between Eire and UK will cause problems and have to be 'hardened' to some degree (even though that won't be officially acknowledged, and the position of hardening yet to be determined).  The final economic outcome may not be too bad, but the middle years will not only be tough but will damage our economy in the long term, taking decades to repair the damage.

Thanks Huge, neat set of figures.

Based on these, and aproximations, over the next 12 years or so, each one of us will be somewhere between £7k and £31k worse off, with an average suggesting c.£20K

OK, so that's only £1.5k pa per person.

What's £1.5k pa pp - peanuts !.................................

...............except, with a population of c.60m that's £90bn pa nationally. Which if we stuck it on the side of a red bus, is about 10 times as big as the real saving we would make from our contribution, and which we might have chosen to spend on our health care.

Now I know it can't be this bad, and I have made a mistake somewhere. It's a bit of a Brain Teaser eg we can't put a price on freedom (or something like that), but i'm still not convinced that Brexit is a good idea !

At last, I think I’ve got it.

The economy might tank, multinationals might leave, the agricultural industry and NHS might suffer critical staff shortages, we might only be able to afford to eat chlorinated chicken and genetically-modified foods but, hey, those modest downsides are a price well worth playing because - and I can hardly contain my excitement - we will get our blue passports back. Yippee!

Gosh. If I had known that at the time of the referendum I would surely have joined all those enlightened folk and voted to leave. Silly me for taking so long to properly understand what really matters.

Oh, just a minute. Apparently some years back the UK chose to adopt the EU-style passport and we could, like Croatia, have kept our old style all along. Damn! Another pyrrhic victory. I can feel that disillusionment creeping back over me. Still, the feeling of enlightenment was nice while it lasted.

MDS posted:

At last, I think I’ve got it.

The economy might tank, multinationals might leave, the agricultural industry and NHS might suffer critical staff shortages, we might only be able to afford to eat chlorinated chicken and genetically-modified foods but, hey, those modest downsides are a price well worth playing because - and I can hardly contain my excitement - we will get out blue passports back. Yippee!

Gosh. If I had known that at the time of the referendum I would surely have joined all those enlightened folk and voted to leave. Silly me for taking so long to properly understand what really matters.

 

Oh, just a minute. Apparently some years back the UK chose to adopt the EU-style passport and we could, like Croatia, have kept our old style all along. Damn! Another pyrrhic victory. I can feel that disillusionment creeping back over me. Still, the feeling of enlightenment was nice while it lasted.

All so much better than being MAROONED on the EUTitanic! ????

MDS posted:

At last, I think I’ve got it.

The economy might tank, multinationals might leave, the agricultural industry and NHS might suffer critical staff shortages, we might only be able to afford to eat chlorinated chicken and genetically-modified foods but, hey, those modest downsides are a price well worth playing because - and I can hardly contain my excitement - we will get our blue passports back. Yippee!

Gosh. If I had known that at the time of the referendum I would surely have joined all those enlightened folk and voted to leave. Silly me for taking so long to properly understand what really matters.

 

Oh, just a minute. Apparently some years back the UK chose to adopt the EU-style passport and we could, like Croatia, have kept our old style all along. Damn! Another pyrrhic victory. I can feel that disillusionment creeping back over me. Still, the feeling of enlightenment was nice while it lasted.

Let's be grateful for small mercies.......................

.......................I can't see any great ones coming out of this debacle !

Resurrection posted:

 

.....All so much better than being MAROONED on the EUTitanic! ????

Not many people [other than Brexiteers] are aware that the ill-fated SS Titanic was actually built by the Germans & launched from Hamburg whilst dangerously overloaded with EU regulation straightened bananas and bent sausages. It was clearly not a British concern or disaster...

naim_nymph posted:

Resurrection posted:

 

.....All so much better than being MAROONED on the EUTitanic! ????

Not many people [other than Brexiteers] are aware that the ill-fated SS Titanic was actually built by the Germans & launched from Hamburg whilst dangerously overloaded with EU regulation straightened bananas and bent sausages. It was clearly not a British concern or disaster...

Ah begorrah! An' there was me thinking there was something Oirish about the Titanic. Thank God only German bananas drowned! Sure, and isn't history a wonderful thing! ????

Was the racist slur supposed to add something to this topic?

Huge posted:

Was the racist slur supposed to add something to this topic?

Yes, life! Try getting one. 

Scotland's highest civil courts is to hear a legal action to establish whether the UK could reverse Brexit without needing agreement from Brussels.

Thank goodness there are a few more people still considering the possibility of remaining, assuming any "deal" doesn't look good. It's possible that a  "No Deal" might be better than a "Bad Deal", but it would have to be a hell of a bad deal. However, Remain would be better than no deal, and a lot better than a bad deal. All IMHO of course.

MDS posted:

 

Oh, just a minute. Apparently some years back the UK chose to adopt the EU-style passport and we could, like Croatia, have kept our old style all along. Damn! Another pyrrhic victory. I can feel that disillusionment creeping back over me. Still, the feeling of enlightenment was nice while it lasted.

On a serious side (which I assume you knew) the U.K. could have kept the blue colour of passports but the design of the passport is dictated more by the International Civic Aviation Organisation.  Latterly the design and developement of the passport has been dictated by the USA - if a country wants its citizens to be able to participate in the US via waver programme they demanded certain biometrics.  As I recall as a group of over half a billion citizens the EU was able to influence the US and mitigated some of the requirements the US wanted to implement.

So as has been repeatedly commented, either the U.K. remains part of the EU and had influence (however little influence you feel the U.K. has); or you go alone and accept rules dictated by USA and EU as the cost of dealing with them...

Yes, Eloise. I think you're referring to the contents of the passport which is being dictated by international standards e.g. format and what the chip contains. The Brexiteer hype seen on Friday was more about the cover, though the new design isn't really a return to the old style UK passport cover.   

MDS posted:

Yes, Eloise. I think you're referring to the contents of the passport which is being dictated by international standards e.g. format and what the chip contains. The Brexiteer hype seen on Friday was more about the cover, though the new design isn't really a return to the old style UK passport cover.   

And the “revelations” that they could have been blue all along. Apparently it was Thatcher who thought people wouldn’t care less... and it was a choice with no pressure from the EC.

...and of course it was Margaret Thatcher - the darling of the Tory right - who took the UK into the Single Market which involved border controls being abandoned.  Strange how some of the hard Brexiteers in the Tory party seem to have selective memories about that.

MDS posted:

...and of course it was Margaret Thatcher - the darling of the Tory right - who took the UK into the Single Market which involved border controls being abandoned.  Strange how some of the hard Brexiteers in the Tory party seem to have selective memories about that.

I suspect (without any real knowledge) she had similar views on Europe / the EU as Corbyn (albeit from different perspective) in that the EU isn’t perfect, but being part of it and at the heart and directing it is infinitely preferable to the alternative of being outside, subject to its influence without being able to direct it at all.

Not to mention that othe darling of the Tory right, Churchill, and his views on greater European cooperation and ultimately integration.

The other “victory” in the Passport colour debate... it’s quite likely they will be made in France or Germany...

Mrs Thatcher believed in free trade and the free market. These were the reasons she signed us up to the European Single Act. She did not like or agree with the institutions of the EEC and their interference in our sovereignty.

Ray

thebigfredc posted:

Mrs Thatcher believed in free trade and the free market. These were the reasons she signed us up to the European Single Act. She did not like or agree with the institutions of the EEC and their interference in our sovereignty.

Ray

The consequence of creating the single market was a very significant ceding of every member state's sovereignty. Thatcher knew that and still did it.