Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

fatcat posted:

Who’s to say Labour brexit voters aren’t in favour of a very soft brexit. The bottom line is, most people voted leave to stop immigration, I doubt customs unions entered their minds.

There’s talk of large numbers of immigrants being allowed to work on farms, in the city and in the NHS after brexit. (and the list will probably grow). What are the people who voted leave going to think of that. That’s not what they voted for.

 

Very true Fatcat. There has been way too much presumptuous talk about whether Brexiteers voted for a hard or soft Brexit, or whether it was just immigration or whatever. Believe me, most Brexiteers want a complete divorce from the EU. As with the other 170 or so sovereign nations in the world, am sure we will eventually find a way forward.

As it stands, Corbyn's mischievous declarations today are just muddying the waters even further. There is no one in the House of Commons who will actually admit to conspiring to destabilise Brexit as an end in itself, except for mad eyed Soubry perhaps, and the greater the obfuscation the worse the Brexit is liable to be due to all the ferrets in Westminster squabbling amongst themselves, never mind the machinations from the EU. 

Fascinating.

 

The above facts will almost certainly make difference to anyone's opinion, however.  As far as I can tell, the kind of belief you express is typically more akin to religious faith than it is to evidence-sensitive empiricism.

 

As for Labour's policy announcement today, the mathematics should be clear.  The referendum result was very close, so a couple of percent swing would reverse it.  The referendum question didn't include anything about CU/SM membership, and at the time some prominent leave campaigners explicitly said that we would be in one or both after brexit.  Therefore those who voted leave, but who wanted anything other than a hard brexit or WHO crash out, should broadly agree with Labour's declared stance all things being equal.  Of the two main parties, that means that Labour's policy should have the widest appeal, since the Tories' current policies amount to a very hard brexit with a significant risk of WHO crash out - which is NOT what a majority of the public voted for (they simply couldbn't have, it wasn't the question on the ballot paper).

If all things are not equal, it is just testament to the degree of confusion over the specifics and to people on all sides' prejudices.

For my part, I see the announcement as a good thing, because although it probably means that we will leave the EU, it makes it more likely that we will do so as a sane country, rather than one ruled by 62 loonies.

62 loonies? There are more than 62 loonies in the Labour Party, aren't there?

Resurrection posted:

There is no one in the House of Commons who will actually admit to conspiring to destabilise Brexit as an end in itself, except for mad eyed Soubry perhaps,

 

Hard though you may find it to believe, some of us not on the swivel-eyed extreme right nutter end of the spectrum actually see Soubry as an oasis of sense in a desert of Fox/Mogg/Gove etc shaped madness-addled insaneonauts (to use  lovely phrase from Bleak Expectations).

Similarly, I believe that many within Labour see Frank Field as being in a minority of about 2 within the movement.  He just crops up because the media get a better story if he's there to shout and foster impressions of division.

Dave***t posted:

For my part, I see the announcement as a good thing, because although it probably means that we will leave the EU, it makes it more likely that we will do so as a sane country, rather than one ruled by 62 loonies.

I very agree with that.  

Dave***t posted:

Resurrection posted:

There is no one in the House of Commons who will actually admit to conspiring to destabilise Brexit as an end in itself, except for mad eyed Soubry perhaps,

 

Hard though you may find it to believe, some of us not on the swivel-eyed extreme right nutter end of the spectrum actually see Soubry as an oasis of sense in a desert of Fox/Mogg/Gove etc shaped madness-addled insaneonauts (to use  lovely phrase from Bleak Expectations).

Similarly, I believe that many within Labour see Frank Field as being in a minority of about 2 within the movement.  He just crops up because the media get a better story if he's there to shout and foster impressions of division.

Agree with that, too. Soubry seems to me to be speaking from the heart about what she genuinely believes in in the best interests of the UK.   

One can’t help but feel that if JC had adopted this at least partly stance in early-mid 2015 it would have been - potentially - helpful.  

The Strat (Fender) posted:

One can’t help but feel that if JC had adopted this at least partly stance in early-mid 2015 it would have been - potentially - helpful.  

I can't help but agree with you Strat (at least adopting the stance prior to triggering of Article 50 in 2016) ... while what JC said yesterday would make (IMO) for great policy and could lead to a result which walks the fine line between leaving the EU as "promised" by the campaigners on both sides of the referendum - yes I know it was legally an advisory referendum but promises were made the result would be carried out - and keeping close relationship with the EU which is required for continued business and prosperity; the big problem is that JC is in no position to implement the policy he set out.

For JC to take control of the Brexit negotiations: Corbyn first has to make May’s position untenable by raining defeat after defeat on her in parliament, then cause her own party’s MPs to turn so completely on her (and against their own self interests - for Corbyn to win many of the Tory MPs have to loose; ironically many of those with smaller majorities are those who are pro-Europe though) that they vote against her / The Tory party in a vote of no confidence.  He finally has to convince the British people to vote for them in a general election.

Reading into this today it seems that Jeremy Corbyn’s position is an option and would ultimately depend on the EU granting the UK a seat at the table when it negotiates future trade deals.  This would seem highly unlikely and of course would be impossible if at the same time the UK were actively seeking its own arrangements with the nation(s) concerned.   

Ultimately of course the only real solution is remaining a full member of the EU. Funny old thing.   

A short time ago I listened to an interview given by BJ on the radio today, where he attempted to argue that the Irish border was not really a problem were we to leave the single market and the customs union, because the Irish border isn't really any different to the border between any two London Boroughs. Technical solutions could be brought to bear to resolve any issues.

Is he for real? Is he really stupid enough to believe this, or is he even more devious than I had thought? 

Hmack posted:

A short time ago I listened to an interview given by BJ on the radio today, where he attempted to argue that the Irish border was not really a problem were we to leave the single market and the customs union, because the Irish border isn't really any different to the border between any two London Boroughs. Technical solutions could be brought to bear to resolve any issues.

Is he for real? Is he really stupid enough to believe this, or is he even more devious than I had thought? 

The latter.

Hmack posted:

A short time ago I listened to an interview given by BJ on the radio today, where he attempted to argue that the Irish border was not really a problem were we to leave the single market and the customs union, because the Irish border isn't really any different to the border between any two London Boroughs. Technical solutions could be brought to bear to resolve any issues.

Is he for real? Is he really stupid enough to believe this, or is he even more devious than I had thought? 

If he genuinely believes that, he is an idiot. My guess is he hasn't bothered to properly research the issue and/or to listen to the advice of others who do know about it, which also says quite a bit about his character e.g. prepared to be a wilful liar to defend his position.  

So the trade deals being pursued outside the EU equate to 'a packet of crisps' compared to the 'three-course meal' we have by being part of the biggest single market in the world.  An analogy that I think is going to get well-used. 

MDS posted:

So the trade deals being pursued outside the EU equate to 'a packet of crisps' compared to the 'three-course meal' we have by being part of the biggest single market in the world.  An analogy that I think is going to get well-used. 

Exactly.  

The Strat (Fender) posted:

MDS posted:

So the trade deals being pursued outside the EU equate to 'a packet of crisps' compared to the 'three-course meal' we have by being part of the biggest single market in the world.  An analogy that I think is going to get well-used. 

Exactly.  

Am always inspired by career bureaucrats who run off at the mouth once they've collected their not so well earned gongs then open same mouths and prove why civil servants should keep them shut. Adonis, of course, is another one. Too much time spent telling one another how clever they are and if only they, rather than the politicians, were left in charge what a wonderful world this would be. 

cf. Sir Humphrey Appleby and Mr Jim Hacker!  

Arghh - Sir Humphtey - there was someone who understood the machinations of government!

Resurrection posted:

The Strat (Fender) posted:

MDS posted:

So the trade deals being pursued outside the EU equate to 'a packet of crisps' compared to the 'three-course meal' we have by being part of the biggest single market in the world.  An analogy that I think is going to get well-used. 

Exactly.  

Am always inspired by career bureaucrats who run off at the mouth once they've collected their not so well earned gongs then open same mouths and prove why civil servants should keep them shut. Adonis, of course, is another one. Too much time spent telling one another how clever they are and if only they, rather than the politicians, were left in charge what a wonderful world this would be. 

But does that make what they say any less true, Resurrection? What possible advantage does Donnelly have to gain by speaking out in this way? He's not politically aligned and, as former permanent secretary for international trade, ought to know something about the topic that he has spoken on, don't you think?  

MDS posted:

Resurrection posted:

The Strat (Fender) posted:

MDS posted:

So the trade deals being pursued outside the EU equate to 'a packet of crisps' compared to the 'three-course meal' we have by being part of the biggest single market in the world.  An analogy that I think is going to get well-used. 

Exactly.  

Am always inspired by career bureaucrats who run off at the mouth once they've collected their not so well earned gongs then open same mouths and prove why civil servants should keep them shut. Adonis, of course, is another one. Too much time spent telling one another how clever they are and if only they, rather than the politicians, were left in charge what a wonderful world this would be. 

But does that make what they say any less true, Resurrection? What possible advantage does Donnelly have to gain by speaking out in this way? He's not politically aligned and, as former permanent secretary for international trade, ought to know something about the topic that he has spoken on, don't you think?  

I have to agree that Donnelly knows a lot about the subject given that his career progression was very much aligned to and within the EU. He is a die hard EUrophile which in itself is no problem but let's not pretend that he is impartial whatsoever. And as for his ability to differentiate between an economic packet of crisps and a three course dinner after living his whole career in a hermetically sealed bureaucratic bubble, well, Mystic Meg is as entitled to make a reasoned deduction as Donnelly. Although I grant you that Mystic Meg never got a PPE from Oxford.

Lovely retort, Resurrection.  I sometimes think Boris gets his advice from Mystic Meg. His utterances today comparing the Irish Land Boundary issue to the congestion charge suggested he was in the realms of fantasy.  I bet officials in the Foreign Office were holding their heads in exasperation. 

Anyway, Donnelly could well be Europhile but, still, that doesn't mean he is wrong on this issue, however inconvenient that might be for BJ and co.  Indeed, I'm a little surprised that Gove hasn't rushed out a statement reminding us of his previous wisdom that 'people are fed up listening to experts'.   But then he would have to admit that Donnelly knows the area of international trade quite well.  Oh, well. It must be tough being a Brexiteer politician these days, what with all those contortions and contradictions that seem to need 'explaining' on an almost daily basis.  

MDS posted:

Lovely retort, Resurrection.  I sometimes think Boris gets his advice from Mystic Meg. His utterances today comparing the Irish Land Boundary issue to the congestion charge suggested he was in the realms of fantasy.  I bet officials in the Foreign Office were holding their heads in exasperation. 

Anyway, Donnelly could well be Europhile but, still, that doesn't mean he is wrong on this issue, however inconvenient that might be for BJ and co.  Indeed, I'm a little surprised that Gove hasn't rushed out a statement reminding us of his previous wisdom that 'people are fed up listening to experts'.   But then he would have to admit that Donnelly knows the area of international trade quite well.  Oh, well. It must be tough being a Brexiteer politician these days, what with all those contortions and contradictions that seem to need 'explaining' on an almost daily basis.  

 

Although I appreciate that you all know that I'm an ardent Brexiteer it does not make me an admirer or believer in BJ. The man is an opportunist as desperate to grasp power as Corbyn is, or at least Corbyn's masters are. As far as I'm concerned the Westminster wrigglers are mainly worms anyway. Wasn't someone advocating doing without politicians and relying totally on interactive media voting? Ah yes, I believe it was Beppe Grillo, currently front runner in the Italian polls, which shows how disillusioned the Italian electorate are.

Resurrection posted:

MDS posted:

 

Although I appreciate that you all know that I'm an ardent Brexiteer it does not make me an admirer or believer in BJ. The man is an opportunist as desperate to grasp power as Corbyn is, or at least Corbyn's masters are. As far as I'm concerned the Westminster wrigglers are mainly worms anyway. Wasn't someone advocating doing without politicians and relying totally on interactive media voting? Ah yes, I believe it was Beppe Grillo, currently front runner in the Italian polls, which shows how disillusioned the Italian electorate are.

We have some common ground, Resurrection. This is getting scary!

Resurrection posted:

MDS posted:

Lovely retort, Resurrection.  I sometimes think Boris gets his advice from Mystic Meg. His utterances today comparing the Irish Land Boundary issue to the congestion charge suggested he was in the realms of fantasy.  I bet officials in the Foreign Office were holding their heads in exasperation. 

Anyway, Donnelly could well be Europhile but, still, that doesn't mean he is wrong on this issue, however inconvenient that might be for BJ and co.  Indeed, I'm a little surprised that Gove hasn't rushed out a statement reminding us of his previous wisdom that 'people are fed up listening to experts'.   But then he would have to admit that Donnelly knows the area of international trade quite well.  Oh, well. It must be tough being a Brexiteer politician these days, what with all those contortions and contradictions that seem to need 'explaining' on an almost daily basis.  

 

Although I appreciate that you all know that I'm an ardent Brexiteer it does not make me an admirer or believer in BJ. The man is an opportunist as desperate to grasp power as Corbyn is, or at least Corbyn's masters are. As far as I'm concerned the Westminster wrigglers are mainly worms anyway. Wasn't someone advocating doing without politicians and relying totally on interactive media voting? Ah yes, I believe it was Beppe Grillo, currently front runner in the Italian polls, which shows how disillusioned the Italian electorate are.

Resurrection, Such brilliantly articulated descriptive prose! ATB Minh

Yes, Minh. Resurrection and I disagree on Brexit but his posts are well-written, entertaining and often funny.  

MDS posted:

Yes, Minh. Resurrection and I disagree on Brexit but his posts are well-written, entertaining and often funny.  

BJ the abbreviation sounds so wrong at all fundamental levels: I would not use that term in front of my mother. Resurrection describes him in what could be considered to be his entirety in so few well constructed words!

Actually, I am sitting listening to Beggars Banquet and these words from Salt of the Earth are as resonant today:

"Lets think of the wavering millions
Who need leaders but get gamblers instead"

It's good to have HiFi that actually lets you hear the words. In this instance 50 years after I bought the original in Mono. After all, we may viscerally disagree on politics but surely we are on this site through a love of music and spending lots of money on HiFi.