Are we sleep-walking out of Europe ?

hungryhalibut posted:

You may be right. It may we’ll be above inflation.  Whatever, you can virtually guarantee it will be insufficient to meet an ever rising demand. Without Brexit GDP growth would be £350m a week higher, according to the IFS. Now where have we heard that figure before? All May is doing is trying to distract us from her ineptitude in dealing with Brexit and her own party, by waving a few sticking plasters. 

...........and that was the gist of my post above.....

I suspect the £20bn is simply a cash increase about the current NHS baseline i.e. it's not a real £20bn increase once inflation it accounted for. The forthcoming spending review (SR19), yet to be formally announced by the Chancellor, will reveal the truth about the NHS funding. Spending reviews normally cover a five-year period (the life of a parliament) which squares with the 2023 year mentioned by the PM. What I find interesting is that prior to this point Hunt has been saying that the NHS needs a 10-year settlement, citing the time it takes to train a doctor.  Hitherto the PM seems to have been supportive of that, so this new announcement suggests that the Treasury has had a significant influence.

Anyway back on the Brexit point, I'm struggling to see how lower payments to the EU can contribute materially to the extra money for the EU to 2023 because it looks like the UK will be in a transition period during which contributions will almost certainly still be made.  Extra taxes, or borrowing, look a far more likely source.   

Hunt has very recently said that any Brexit savings weren’t enough to cover the additional NHS funding, and that there will be an extra burden on taxation. At least Labour have been honest about that, and last year’s manifesto explained that it would come from extra taxes on the richest 5% and increased corporation tax. Yet May clearly thinks that the magic money tree will provide. Last year she said there wasn’t one, but it seems she has now found it. What a fiasco. Every 1% fall in GDP as a result of Brexit reduces tax income by £8bn. So where do we find the extra £20bn without increasing taxes? Errrrrrrr........

Fancy The Maybot trotting out the stupid idea that these funs will come from "The £350 million...bla.bla....saved....bla bla...". She must think our heads button up the back. It just shows what contempt the Tories hold for the majority of the population.

The Brexit dividend proposition is rubbish that May couldn’t cling to for even days, yet alone long enough for it to be empirically disproved. It’s now official that the NHS spending increase will require tax increases.

It’s not even really much of an increase - it’s mostly just restoring near-parity with historical NHS funding trends in the past. Trends which, far from being profligacy, simply make sense in the context of an increasing, and increasingly long-lived population.

As Robert Peston said recently (backed up by the head of the IFS), if you hear Brexit dividend, think unicorn.

NHS spending will have to increase further if fewer foreign workers are prepared to come for the low wages on offer to care and ancillary staff, leading to an increase in wages to attract more people.

Dave***t posted:

The Brexit dividend proposition is rubbish that May couldn’t cling to for even days, yet alone long enough for it to be empirically disproved. It’s now official that the NHS spending increase will require tax increases.

It’s not even really much of an increase - it’s mostly just restoring near-parity with historical NHS funding trends in the past. Trends which, far from being profligacy, simply make sense in the context of an increasing, and increasingly long-lived population.

As Robert Peston said recently (backed up by the head of the IFS), if you hear Brexit dividend, think unicorn.

The endless discussion about the ‘Brexit dividend’ or the NHS bonus are truly useful constructs by Remainers. Despite and including Cameron’s £9 million taxpayer funded package of lies, no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus, nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left. 

We voted to regain sovereignty, end mass immigration, cut our payments to the EU and retain all  judicial processes within the U.K. Still, if it keeps you all happy patting one another on the back at the antics of the likes of Soubry or Grieve then crack on. I can assure you there are now more than 17.4 million who are unimpressed at the obfuscation and delay by them, Soubry, Grieve, Clarke,  as well as the House of Lords, and it is only the fact that there is no nascent Populist Party for Brexiterrs to turn to that is keeping Labour and Conservatives delusional about their popular support. 

As for those that ridicule the self made multimillionaire, Jacob Rees Mogg, you have to be having a gigantic laugh at expecting us to give credulity to that weirdo Peston.

The Tories cannot be brave enough to tell people they will have to pay more tax to get the NHS they want. Why? Because time after time this sort of choice has shown to be electoral suicide. The Daily Mail has already started the backlash.

The population hails the NHS, everyone says they want to save it but when people go to the ballot box they rarely show that they want to pay for it. Politicians can be forgiven for some of their squeamishness perhaps. Labour know this too.

Time for an honest and non-politicised debate about what people want, want we can actually afford now and in the future and what we cannot. Not passing the buck to the professions and the 'system' to take the rap for falling performance and local rationing decisions. We need a fixed 10yr funding plan that is believable, and will persist whatever political party is in office. We need money for system innovation, not just poured into more of the same. We need to make sure social care is funded as part of the package of health funding, not slashed whilst the NHS gets a bigger cut. We need a workforce plan across clinical professions that is coherent and achievable. Hunts' 'extra 5,000 GP's is just a joke, and even he is beginning to tire of repeating it.

I could continue.

Bruce

Quite so, Bruce. And it’s not just the NHS: local government seems to be falling apart around our ears. Social care is the key to unlocking bed blocking, and while local authorities are struggling to maintain these statutory services everything else is suffering, including public health, which is vital to relieve pressure on the NHS. The roads are falling to bits, libraries and fire stations are closing, trading standards are being cut and - certainly where I live - it’s starting to look like a jungle with weeds and long grass everywhere. Yet people want great services but don’t want to pay for them. And the Government is simply shifting the blame to other bodies. 

One benefit of Brexit - and I can think of no other - is that they will no longer be able to blame Brussels for their own almighty **** up. 

Resurrection posted:

The endless discussion about the ‘Brexit dividend’ or the NHS bonus are truly useful constructs by Remainers. Despite and including Cameron’s £9 million taxpayer funded package of lies, no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus, nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left. 

That’s a lie... politicians at least are still relying on the Brexit Dividend as a statement to influence voters.  May and Johnson both used it today.  Hunt used it (in denying that there needed to be a Brexit Dividend to get the £20bn).

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

The endless discussion about the ‘Brexit dividend’ or the NHS bonus are truly useful constructs by Remainers. Despite and including Cameron’s £9 million taxpayer funded package of lies, no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus, nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left. 

That’s a lie... politicians at least are still relying on the Brexit Dividend as a statement to influence voters.  May and Johnson both used it today.  Hunt used it (in denying that there needed to be a Brexit Dividend to get the £20bn).

Ouch! Eloise knows how to pack a punch, eh! This so called Brexit Dividend is and always has been a fabricated plaything of politicians who find it so very hard to understand why the swivel eyed Leave voting electorate could be so deluded.  Obviously, border closing or migration cutting are nowhere in the lexicon of politicians so they could not be, or remotely allowed to be the reason, could they? No, the poor, deluded fools were duped by a red bus that had a number on it. As far as I know, Hunt, May et al are all Remainers to a gender neutral personage, so how they rationalise the Brexit imposed on them by the electorate is also one of life’s mysteries. Their tortured logic on implementing and understanding it seems to validate this. 

That isn’t to say that I believe that there is no Brexit dividend, there are loads of them though not necessarily all financial, all of these are based around self determination, and no, I have no intention of providing you with the shopping list Eloise. ????

Resurrection posted:

Dave***t posted:

The Brexit dividend proposition is rubbish that May couldn’t cling to for even days, yet alone long enough for it to be empirically disproved. It’s now official that the NHS spending increase will require tax increases.

It’s not even really much of an increase - it’s mostly just restoring near-parity with historical NHS funding trends in the past. Trends which, far from being profligacy, simply make sense in the context of an increasing, and increasingly long-lived population.

As Robert Peston said recently (backed up by the head of the IFS), if you hear Brexit dividend, think unicorn.

The endless discussion about the ‘Brexit dividend’ or the NHS bonus are truly useful constructs by Remainers. Despite and including Cameron’s £9 million taxpayer funded package of lies, no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus, nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left. 

We voted to regain sovereignty, end mass immigration, cut our payments to the EU and retain all  judicial processes within the U.K. Still, if it keeps you all happy patting one another on the back at the antics of the likes of Soubry or Grieve then crack on. I can assure you there are now more than 17.4 million who are unimpressed at the obfuscation and delay by them, Soubry, Grieve, Clarke,  as well as the House of Lords, and it is only the fact that there is no nascent Populist Party for Brexiterrs to turn to that is keeping Labour and Conservatives delusional about their popular support. 

As for those that ridicule the self made multimillionaire, Jacob Rees Mogg, you have to be having a gigantic laugh at expecting us to give credulity to that weirdo Peston.

Ah, so that's why support for UKIP has fallen so dramatically!

(N.B. Sarcasm!)

Huge posted:

We voted to regain sovereignty, end mass immigration, cut our payments to the EU and retain all  judicial processes within the U.K. Still, if it keeps you all happy patting one another on the back at the antics of the likes of Soubry or Grieve then crack on. I can assure you there are now more than 17.4 million who are unimpressed at the obfuscation and delay by them, Soubry, Grieve, Clarke,  as well as the House of Lords, and it is only the fact that there is no nascent Populist Party for Brexiterrs to turn to that is keeping Labour and Conservatives delusional about their popular support. 

As for those that ridicule the self made multimillionaire, Jacob Rees Mogg, you have to be having a gigantic laugh at expecting us to give credulity to that weirdo Peston.

Ah, so that's why support for UKIP has fallen so dramatically!

(N.B. Sarcasm!)

No, it was because, like Jeremy Corbyn they had no Momentum, traction or proper identity other than Brexit, which is, of course, Jeremy's position as well.

Resurrection posted:

.... no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus

I'll go along with that statement, but it sure leaves an awful lot of Brexiteers who were indeed influenced by something on the side of a bus, and by the other untruths propagated by the 'Exit' campaign. 

However, I see that you are at least no longer claiming to speak for all who voted Brexit.

Ah, but no - the nastiness is never far away, nor your uncanny ability to speak for all those who voted Brexit, and returns with gusto with this statement: 

".... nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left". 

So what would your policy be then Resurrection? A move away from the NHS to an American style service where those (like that nice self made millionaire, Rees-Mogg), and perhaps yourself can afford to pay for private health insurance, and those who cannot pay be damned. Well, I guess that that would constitute a sort of 'Natural Selection', potentially ending up with the numbers of the great unwashed and unworking left being drastically reduced. That would be convenient, wouldn't it.     

Hmack posted:

Resurrection posted:

.... no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus

 

I'll go along with that statement, but it sure leaves an awful lot of Brexiteers who were indeed influenced by something on the side of a bus, and by the other untruths propagated by the 'Exit' campaign. 

However, I see that you are at least no longer claiming to speak for all who voted Brexit.

Ah, but no - the nastiness is never far away, nor your uncanny ability to speak for all those who voted Brexit, and returns with gusto with this statement: 

".... nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left". 

So what would your policy be then Resurrection? A move away from the NHS to an American style service where those (like that nice self made millionaire, Rees-Mogg), and perhaps yourself can afford to pay for private health insurance, and those who cannot pay be damned. Well, I guess that that would constitute a sort of 'Natural Selection', potentially ending up with the numbers of the great unwashed and unworking left being drastically reduced. That would be convenient, wouldn't it.     

 

Ouch, another one having a bite at me. The models for the NHS  I would use, steangeky, are the European ones, the insurance based schemes that ensures everyone takes some responsibility for their health care but no one is left out due to genuine financial hardship.. I will avoid all your usual presumptions of who I am and what I think or believe, but you are correct, I do have private healthcare which I received for life from a previous employer.

If you had read any of my previous pearls of wisdom you would know that my wife was a midwife, a real one, delivering real babies all her career, so I am aware of all the demands on the frontline staff. 

That’s it.

Strange isn't it, how the Brexit Bunch moaned again and again about the lack of sovereignty of the British Parliament (does that constitute remoaning?); yet now, because Parliament may not wish to sacrifice the good of the country on the altar of their entrenched dogma, they just as vociferously clamour to cede that very sovereignty away from Parliament and to the current government!

Huge posted:

Strange isn't it, how the Brexit Bunch moaned again and again about the lack of sovereignty of the British Parliament (does that constitute remoaning?); yet now, because Parliament may not wish to sacrifice the good of the country on the altar of their entrenched dogma, they just as vociferously clamour to cede that very sovereignty away from Parliament and to the current government!

When all the remaining monkeys in Westminster get out of the way, allow Brexit to be implemented properly instead of the stalling tactics they are playing at the moment then you will have sovereignty back with the U.K. Parliament and should they see fit they might even let you have a crack at rejoining your beloved EU, but that will not happen again in your lifetime if the people are asked through a Referendum.

Resurrection posted:

Eloise posted:

Resurrection posted:

The endless discussion about the ‘Brexit dividend’ or the NHS bonus are truly useful constructs by Remainers. Despite and including Cameron’s £9 million taxpayer funded package of lies, no sensible BRexiterr was influenced in the slightest by anything on the side of a bus, nor were we moved to vote Brexit in order to waste even more money on the NHS, an unaffordable obsession for politicians and the unworking left. 

That’s a lie... politicians at least are still relying on the Brexit Dividend as a statement to influence voters.  May and Johnson both used it today.  Hunt used it (in denying that there needed to be a Brexit Dividend to get the £20bn).

Ouch! Eloise knows how to pack a punch, eh! This so called Brexit Dividend is and always has been a fabricated plaything of politicians who find it so very hard to understand why the swivel eyed Leave voting electorate could be so deluded.  Obviously, border closing or migration cutting are nowhere in the lexicon of politicians so they could not be, or remotely allowed to be the reason, could they? No, the poor, deluded fools were duped by a red bus that had a number on it. As far as I know, Hunt, May et al are all Remainers to a gender neutral personage, so how they rationalise the Brexit imposed on them by the electorate is also one of life’s mysteries. Their tortured logic on implementing and understanding it seems to validate this. 

That isn’t to say that I believe that there is no Brexit dividend, there are loads of them though not necessarily all financial, all of these are based around self determination, and no, I have no intention of providing you with the shopping list Eloise. ????

Sorry but that arch liar Johnson is still talking about the money which will no longer be being sent to the EU.

And yes, many people DO still believe them!

Resurrection posted:

Huge posted:

Strange isn't it, how the Brexit Bunch moaned again and again about the lack of sovereignty of the British Parliament (does that constitute remoaning?); yet now, because Parliament may not wish to sacrifice the good of the country on the altar of their entrenched dogma, they just as vociferously clamour to cede that very sovereignty away from Parliament and to the current government!

When all the remaining monkeys in Westminster get out of the way, allow Brexit to be implemented properly instead of the stalling tactics they are playing at the moment then you will have sovereignty back with the U.K. Parliament and should they see fit they might even let you have a crack at rejoining your beloved EU, but that will not happen again in your lifetime if the people are asked through a Referendum.

So, to sum up: sovereignty for the British Parliament, but only when it agrees with you!

Resurrection posted:

As for those that ridicule the self made multimillionaire, Jacob Rees Mogg, you have to be having a gigantic laugh at expecting us to give credulity to that weirdo Peston.

I'm not rising to the bait of most of your recent posts, RR, not least because others have very ably responded. I do though feel the need to draw attention to your ludicrous defence of Jacob Rees-Mogg, who you laud as being a "self-made multimillionaire", as if he had gone through all kinds of adversity to reach this status. Nothing could be further from the truth. Check out Wikipedia to see how he had an extremely privileged upbringing, with his share acquisition starting after being gifted a sum of money at age 10. Robert Peston had a similarly privileged upbringing, but at least he doesn't have the mendacity like JMR to be an arch-proponent of Brexit whilst running a company that is actively warning off investors from sinking their money into UK enterprises. JMR is indeed one of the elite that stand to gain from Brexit, whilst the average Joe stands to lose a great deal - indeed Mark Carney (Bank of England) informs us that every household in the UK has already lost £900 as a result of the Brexit fiasco - and stand to lose a great deal more unless the adults in the room get a grip and restore some form of sanity...

Huge posted:

Resurrection posted:

Huge posted:

Strange isn't it, how the Brexit Bunch moaned again and again about the lack of sovereignty of the British Parliament (does that constitute remoaning?); yet now, because Parliament may not wish to sacrifice the good of the country on the altar of their entrenched dogma, they just as vociferously clamour to cede that very sovereignty away from Parliament and to the current government!

When all the remaining monkeys in Westminster get out of the way, allow Brexit to be implemented properly instead of the stalling tactics they are playing at the moment then you will have sovereignty back with the U.K. Parliament and should they see fit they might even let you have a crack at rejoining your beloved EU, but that will not happen again in your lifetime if the people are asked through a Referendum.

So, to sum up: sovereignty for the British Parliament, but only when it agrees with you!

Then do the democratic deal, dear Huge, and stop remoaning about Brexit. Once that's done, you can get your playdough Parliament back until you make your next populist mistake. 

Duncan Mann posted:

Resurrection posted:

As for those that ridicule the self made multimillionaire, Jacob Rees Mogg, you have to be having a gigantic laugh at expecting us to give credulity to that weirdo Peston.

I'm not rising to the bait of most of your recent posts, RR, not least because others have very ably responded. I do though feel the need to draw attention to your ludicrous defence of Jacob Rees-Mogg, who you laud as being a "self-made multimillionaire", as if he had gone through all kinds of adversity to reach this status. Nothing could be further from the truth. Check out Wikipedia to see how he had an extremely privileged upbringing, with his share acquisition starting after being gifted a sum of money at age 10. Robert Peston had a similarly privileged upbringing, but at least he doesn't have the mendacity like JMR to be an arch-proponent of Brexit whilst running a company that is actively warning off investors from sinking their money into UK enterprises. JMR is indeed one of the elite that stand to gain from Brexit, whilst the average Joe stands to lose a great deal - indeed Mark Carney (Bank of England) informs us that every household in the UK has already lost £900 as a result of the Brexit fiasco - and stand to lose a great deal more unless the adults in the room get a grip and restore some form of sanity...

Not rise to the bait? Looks like hook line and sinker to me! And as for Carney, I’d almost rather listen to that other Canadian buffoon, Trudeau! Get your money laundered, quantitively eased   and brain washed at Carney’s spin and dry shop! 

Things in Parliament shaping up for an interesting day on Weds.  The Lords defeated the government again this evening on the clause in the bill about giving Parliament a meaningful say if it rejects the eventual deal (once negotiations are done).  An enlarged majority in the HoL, too, which indicates growing frustration with the way HMG has behaved.  Given the bad-feeling created by May and Davis after apparently reneging on the deal offered last week to buy-off the Tory rebels when the bill was debated in the HoC, I suspect HMG are now in an even greater danger of losing a vote on this clause on Weds. After all, why would the Tory rebels accept reassurances this time round when they say they were let-down last week?        

The above text comprised the gist of an e-mail from TM to Mrs D.......ok, it was clearly a mass-circulation e-mail topped and tailed to look personal.

Now, I fully support the idea of an increase in taxation (*) to properly fund the NHS, but I find it insidious to roll into this statement the bit about some  of the money being that which would otherwise have gone to the EU had we not decided to leave ! Especially since elsewhere the TOTAL additional funding (Tax increase + diverted EU contribution) is quoted as £394m per week - which looks conveniently similar to the Boris Bus figure. Political spin at its worst !

(*) there were no details of which taxes might be modified to provide the funds.