MDS posted:

My sense of things at the moment is that the Brexiteers in the Tory party have something of a grip over TM's weak government and, as we have seen today, are holding the potential Tory rebels at bay. This is I think in part because those rebels are fearful of being accused of bringing down the government. They are also wary of being accused of trying to reverse the result of the referendum, accusations stoked by some of the Brexiteers. In relation to the so-called Grieve amendment I think that accusation is unfair as it is designed to give parliament more of a say in the increasingly unlikely scenario that the UK may crash out of the EU without an agreement. Anyway I think this uneasy position within the Tory party and parliament looks like it might continue to hold while negotiations with the EU grind on.  

However, once those negotiations near a conclusion I can see the balance shifting.  The negotiated deal looks more and more likely to contain lots of compromises and long transitional periods to the point where it will be hard to see any material difference post Jan 2019 from the UK having technically left the EU.  This prospect will I think infuriate the hard Brexiteer MPs.  But suddenly the burden of arguing for things to change will have shifted from the rebels to the Brexiteers.  They will have to make the case for the government to go back to Brussels to negotiate a 'better' deal or, even harder, to argue for the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal.  Labour and the other parties will likely accept a negotiated soft-Brexit and without opposition support the Brexiteers don't have anything like the numbers to defeat the government.   So while the likes of Rees-Mogg and other Brexieteers should enjoy their parliamentary 'victories' of last week and this, I think they are going have a very unhappy and frustrated end to the calendar year.  

Unfortunately for yourselves, although you do have a current majority within Westminster what is abundantly clear is that MPs own survival is paramount and their commitment to remaining in the dead duck EU will prove to be a bridge too far. Might be alright for Clarke and Sarah Wolston, who isn't a Tory anyway. but some would prefer not to make their own exit in 2022.

Classy comment, ltaylor - comparing Remainers with "Scientologists or other zealots" Real classy. And of course, not even a tiny bit patronising. Yup, 48% of the population are seen by you as Scientologists... 

Oh come on, he wasn't casting the dispersion at all the people that voted Remain, rather just the ones who look for every technical reason to oppose the Leave process, some of whom post on the forum.

Ray

thebigfredc posted:

Classy comment, ltaylor - comparing Remainers with "Scientologists or other zealots" Real classy. And of course, not even a tiny bit patronising. Yup, 48% of the population are seen by you as Scientologists... 

Oh come on, he wasn't casting the dispersion at all the people that voted Remain, rather just the ones who look for every technical reason to oppose the Leave process, some of whom post on the forum.

Ray

‘Oh come on, he wasn’t calling all of you total and utter morons, just those of you who are total and utter morons.’

Keeping it classy, haha!

Resurrection posted:

Huge posted:

Because Putin is a Socialist (but more actually only in the same sense as of the former German Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei [National Socialist German Workers' Party]).

I am well aware of the derivation of the word Nazi and am also well aware that It includes the word 'Socialist", which has been a useful word to legitimise many of the world's horrors including Mao Tse Tung, Stalin and Pol Pot. When all these people define themselves as Socialist, commonly understood as left wing,  I do believe you are playing linguistic gymnastics to distance your own predilections by denouncing all these self proclaimed Socialists as Right Wing.

Actually, it is even quite difficult to apply the right wing epithet to Trump who has changed his political allegiances more often than a Socialist would change its socks. You might call him a Populist Pragmatist on a polite day. 

1  I have made no statement to suggest that you don't know the derivation of the term Nazi.  Furthermore, given that my own political position is, overall, slightly right of centre, your disparaging assertion in the first paragraph makes no sense at all, since it appears to be based on noting more than your unfounded assumptions about the details of my political beliefs.  It's noting more than a yet another ad hominem attack.

2  I've made made no specific statements ascribing any particular political appellation to Trump.

Are Airbus and BMW simply pushing the Gov towards a "Deal", ie ensuring we don't wind up with Ressurection's idealistic "No deal and sod them" outcome, for which he assures us that 17.4m of our electorate voted ?

Or are they going to pull out of the UK anyway, and Brexit is just an excuse ?

Following on from my post above, just WHAT will it take for TM to wake up ?

Don Atkinson posted:

Are Airbus and BMW simply pushing the Gov towards a "Deal", ie ensuring we don't wind up with Ressurection's idealistic "No deal and sod them" outcome, for which he assures us that 17.4m of our electorate voted ?

Or are they going to pull out of the UK anyway, and Brexit is just an excuse ?

I suspect the various actors were awaiting the outcome of this week’s vote before playing their hands. There us every chance that our government will simply capitulate as usual and invite  Airbus and BMW to move their activities wherever they want, JLR are moving Discovery production  to Slovakia alongside quite a few either car companies. As usual, our government would probably roll over and play dead.

Doesn’t really matter whether we are in or out of the EU, defending our manufacturing, agricultural, fishing, energy production, water supplies etc is the last thing on our politicians’ minds as these resources have all been asset stripped at a great rate of knots since we joined the EU. Drinking water here helps fund the Ontario Teachers pension fund.. EIectricity funds German and French companies. Spanish fishing boats legitimately plunder our seas. 

Just like the double whammy all of you who commute by train are forced to pay the highest fares anywhere because you have to pay the franchise fee or tax to the government before you actually pay for running the actual service. 

This country has been bled white on the altar of alleged free trade, open borders and fee movement of people and business. All of which has hapoened to preserve our ‘credentials’ ’ within the EU.

Oh, am just off to Italy on holiday tomorrow. 

Don Atkinson posted:

Are Airbus and BMW simply pushing the Gov towards a "Deal", ie ensuring we don't wind up with Ressurection's idealistic "No deal and sod them" outcome, for which he assures us that 17.4m of our electorate voted ?

Or are they going to pull out of the UK anyway, and Brexit is just an excuse ?

Reading around the subject, Don, it genuinely does appear that Airbus in particular are in a bind, not of their making - their logistics chain simply cannot function as intended in the event of any form of trade friction - as of course crashing out would be friction on steroids. I gather that this friction would not only bring Broughton and Bristol to a grinding halt, but the other Airbus plants in France, Germany and Spain too. My understanding is that Airbus are planning to mitigate the consequences by stockpiling parts in the UK, but the costs associated with this will run into the £Bns, and is but a sticking plaster on the problem.

It is telling that our European neighbours are spending serious money preparing for a hard Brexit (Google the investment being made at Rotterdam port as an example), whereas the UK has at best probably compiled a PDF document from Wikipedia sources... seriously. One of the reasons why the Michele Barnier is able to face down TM is that he knows full well that there is no will in the UK to invest in preparations for crashing out - allegedly at the insistence of HM Treasury - but I suspect TM is playing the long game to achieve a forced soft Brexit, by constantly kicking the can down the road until the hard Brexiters have to face the harsh reality that crashing out is political suicide for the Tory party.

That having been said, for  JRM, the battle is to secure his £100M in offshore funds against the scrutiny of EU tax evasion legislation due in 2019, so pretty much existential so far as he is concerned - so he will fight to the last for the hardest of Brexits, and minimal oversight by the ECJ...

SIGN THE PETITION 

>>>  peoples-vote.uk <<<

WE, THE PEOPLE

naim_nymph posted:

SIGN THE PETITION 

>>>  peoples-vote.uk <<<

 

WE, THE PEOPLE

We, the undersigned,

demand a People’s Vote on the Brexit deal.

 

 

 

Signed - and thanks for the link, Naim_Nymph!

Resurrection posted:

Doesn’t really matter whether we are in or out of the EU, defending our manufacturing, agricultural, fishing, energy production, water supplies etc is the last thing on our politicians’ minds....

At least on the minds of Brexiters - witness Boris Johnson's latest pearl of wisdom:

BORIS Johnson is caught up in yet another diplomatic scandal, after he was reported to have said "f*ck business" when asked about fears over Brexit.

EU diplomats have expressed their shock and disgust at the comments, which they say came during a Foreign Office reception last week celebrating the Queen's Birthday.

Duncan Mann posted:

ltaylor posted:

You are wasting your time with this Resurrection, its like arguing with Scientologists or other zealots. They will never accept what we did to them by voting to get out of the ghastly EU. Assuming we ever do of course. They haven't got past the anger stage of grief yet. It will be tears before they reach acceptance and by then the EU will have self destructed anyway.

Classy comment, ltaylor - comparing Remainers with "Scientologists or other zealots" Real classy. And of course, not even a tiny bit patronising. Yup, 48% of the population are seen by you as Scientologists... Says it all really.

Yes, I am angry ltaylor - angry that you and your fellow Brexiters have decided that I should become poorer in monetary terms, and will likely become considerably poorer again in future whatever form of Brexit ensues. Ever stop to consider how your decision impacts on others? 

I am angry that my children will have fewer opportunities in the future in the name of fantasy unicorn chasing. I'm guessing that wasn't a concern to you?

I'm angry that public services - already in a parlous state - will deteriorate still further as our worsening GDP buckles under the strain of an ageing population. Ever look at the state of the roads? Pick up a paper and read about the state of the state education sector? And don't get me started on the funding crisis in the NHS - though I suspect that like Resurrection, you have private medical insurance?

The reality is that Brexit will leave the UK diminished in so many areas of our national life. And for what? Even TM has admitted that there is NO scenario in which the UK will be anything other than considerably worse off in terms of GDP. We will become a rule-taker, whether you like it or not - whereas we have had considerable influence within the EU rule making sphere. We will end up with either interminable transition (so you'd better get used to the idea of posting comments on this thread in a few years time), or if we crash out, you'd better hold on to your hat as the real flak starts coming in your direction...

If the shoe fits and all that. I see a few hundred losers were out today bleating about a second vote. You lost, time to move on with your lives. My point was actually directed to Resurrection who I feel is wasting his time with people clearly suffering from Brexit Derangement Syndrome. 

ltaylor posted:

If the shoe fits and all that. I see a few hundred losers were out today bleating about a second vote. You lost, time to move on with your lives.

Haha, that's hilarious, thanks for that!

An estimated 100,000 people march to demand a say in the way the country heads.  On the same day, it's reported that nearly twice as many people are in favour of a vote on the final deal compared with those who oppose such an obviously democratic move.  And that only 25% of people think we shouldn't get a final say on the deal.

Yet that gets translated into a few hundred losers who should move on.  Such a paragon of clear thinking!  Such a stalwart defence of democracy!  Such a clear indication that the country's doing really well and is headed directly for the sunlit uplands we were promised!

If BJ ever were to be sacked, we clearly have a razor sharp diplomatic talent among us who could step unto the breach.  Such a shame that he never will be.

Duncan Mann posted:

Resurrection posted:

Doesn’t really matter whether we are in or out of the EU, defending our manufacturing, agricultural, fishing, energy production, water supplies etc is the last thing on our politicians’ minds....

At least on the minds of Brexiters - witness Boris Johnson's latest pearl of wisdom:

BORIS Johnson is caught up in yet another diplomatic scandal, after he was reported to have said "f*ck business" when asked about fears over Brexit.

EU diplomats have expressed their shock and disgust at the comments, which they say came during a Foreign Office reception last week celebrating the Queen's Birthday.

Asked about the fears business leaders had over Brexit, Johnson replied: "F*ck business."

Johnson, who was speaking to Rudolf Huygelen, Belgium's ambassador to the EU, was overheard saying they would fight Theresa May's soft Brexit "and win".

 

He also said the UK was as divided as it had been since the English Civil War.

Sources close to Johnson are reported to have disputed the claim he swore, and said he was attacking "vested interests" of groups like the Confederation of British Industry.

Speaking to the Telegraph, an EU diplomat said: “It is shocking for him declare he would take the battle directly to Theresa May and speaking so openly about it. He wasn’t hiding his intentions at all.

“I was shocked by how crude and crass he was, as if he didn’t care for the consequences and especially not the economic consequences of Brexit.”

The paper reported that another, when presented with the comments, simply replied: "Jesus Christ."

Says it all...

Depressing but not surprising.  

Dave***t posted:

ltaylor posted:

If the shoe fits and all that. I see a few hundred losers were out today bleating about a second vote. You lost, time to move on with your lives.

Haha, that's hilarious, thanks for that!

An estimated 100,000 people march to demand a say in the way the country heads.  On the same day, it's reported that nearly twice as many people are in favour of a vote on the final deal compared with those who oppose such an obviously democratic move.  And that only 25% of people think we shouldn't get a final say on the deal.

Yet that gets translated into a few hundred losers who should move on.  Such a paragon of clear thinking!  Such a stalwart defence of democracy!  Such a clear indication that the country's doing really well and is headed directly for the sunlit uplands we were promised!

If BJ ever were to be sacked, we clearly have a razor sharp diplomatic talent among us who could step unto the breach.  Such a shame that he never will be.

Much more peaceful and sensible here in Bologna. What is it with you Brits?

MDS posted:

Duncan Mann posted:

Resurrection posted:

Doesn’t really matter whether we are in or out of the EU, defending our manufacturing, agricultural, fishing, energy production, water supplies etc is the last thing on our politicians’ minds....

At least on the minds of Brexiters - witness Boris Johnson's latest pearl of wisdom:

BORIS Johnson is caught up in yet another diplomatic scandal, after he was reported to have said "f*ck business" when asked about fears over Brexit.

EU diplomats have expressed their shock and disgust at the comments, which they say came during a Foreign Office reception last week celebrating the Queen's Birthday.

Asked about the fears business leaders had over Brexit, Johnson replied: "F*ck business."

Johnson, who was speaking to Rudolf Huygelen, Belgium's ambassador to the EU, was overheard saying they would fight Theresa May's soft Brexit "and win".

 

He also said the UK was as divided as it had been since the English Civil War.

Sources close to Johnson are reported to have disputed the claim he swore, and said he was attacking "vested interests" of groups like the Confederation of British Industry.

Speaking to the Telegraph, an EU diplomat said: “It is shocking for him declare he would take the battle directly to Theresa May and speaking so openly about it. He wasn’t hiding his intentions at all.

“I was shocked by how crude and crass he was, as if he didn’t care for the consequences and especially not the economic consequences of Brexit.”

The paper reported that another, when presented with the comments, simply replied: "Jesus Christ."

Says it all...

Depressing but not surprising.  

I have to say he can be a little crass. Still, anything but Soubry, Grieve or Clarke, eh!

Resurrection posted:

Much more peaceful and sensible here in Bologna. What is it with you Brits?

Are you going to emigrate then?  And by implication of your words you exclude yourself from being a member of 'us Brits':

So why should anyone pay any attention to your views on Brexit; since it's not relevant to anyone who doesn't consider themselves a Brit.

From now on, the only reason you would have a reason for posing anything further on Brexit is clearly just to stir up trouble!

Sorry, but you've now excluded yourself from having any relevance in this thread.

Huge posted:

Resurrection posted:

Much more peaceful and sensible here in Bologna. What is it with you Brits?

Are you going to emigrate then?

Actually Huge, you probably can’t appreciate now much I appreciate Europe and it’s different cultures, but I do. Lovely evening in Bologna, lovely city, lovely food and wonderful atmosphere. And I love la lingua. Bizarre, eh!

Resurrection posted:

Much more peaceful and sensible here in Bologna. What is it with you Brits?

Ah yes Bologna, ‘red Bologna’, the renowned communist-leaning city. Last time I was there, a student group were holding a series of public speeches/debates in the main square. It was quite encouraging after the far right activity I’d seen in the days prior. I’d love to go back and be able to see the spectacular painting of Satan which I believe is in the cathedral.

Odd place for you to choose for a holiday, I’m surprised you didn’t burst into flames upon setting foot within its borders.

Still, glad you’re finding it sensible in comparison with these riven islands, in thrall to far right maniacs as they are.

It was the second anniversary of the referendum recently......it doesn't feel like a lot has changed in the country .......so far at least.

thebigfredc posted:

It was the second anniversary of the referendum recently......it doesn't feel like a lot has changed in the country .......so far at least.

 

Which planet are you living on............?

Let me think ........ my £ didn’t buy me quite as many Kr in Norway this year or the year before, nor quite as many Euro as last year in Italy or Germany the year before. ......

......more of my students are getting jobs with Foreign airlines than UK airlines, not exclusively so, but increasingly so.......

Many things have changed, or come to light during the past two years, and a fair few of the problem ones are a direct result of Brexit.

However, it is brilliant that the FULL £350m pw AND MORE is going to be allocated to the NHS. ........ oops, we are going to increase taxation to provide the funds !

I ask you ! You couldn’t make it up, not even with a new season of “Yes Minister”

Unfortunately, it’s no joke.

ltaylor posted:

If the shoe fits and all that. I see a few hundred losers were out today bleating about a second vote. You lost, time to move on with your lives. My point was actually directed to Resurrection who I feel is wasting his time with people clearly suffering from Brexit Derangement Syndrome. 

No, actually, “we” didn’t lose - it wasn’t a competition, but a referendum on leaving.  There was no winner or loser, just a count of the number of people on the day voting one way or another on whatever information was available to them at the time. Unfortunately, however, the general public will lose out, and quite severely, if/when Brexit actually goes through, with significant financial loss and in some cases a lot more where people lose their jobs.

Most of the people who voted in favor of Brexit are low skilled ones, and as a direct result of their own votes, they will most likely to lose their own jobs when Brexit is actually happening. But having said that, some of the well paid jobs in the financial city will go as well as big investment banks will relocated their services / resources to Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich or even Geneva.

Don Atkinson posted:

thebigfredc posted:

It was the second anniversary of the referendum recently......it doesn't feel like a lot has changed in the country .......so far at least.

 

Which planet are you living on............?

Let me think ........ my £ didn’t buy me quite as many Kr in Norway this year or the year before, nor quite as many Euro as last year in Italy or Germany the year before. ......

......more of my students are getting jobs with Foreign airlines than UK airlines, not exclusively so, but increasingly so.......

Many things have changed, or come to light during the past two years, and a fair few of the problem ones are a direct result of Brexit.

However, it is brilliant that the FULL £350m pw AND MORE is going to be allocated to the NHS. ........ oops, we are going to increase taxation to provide the funds !

I ask you ! You couldn’t make it up, not even with a new season of “Yes Minister”

Unfortunately, it’s no joke.

Keep your hair on Don.

The examples you provide of substantive changes don't amount to a hill of beans....currency fluctuations are nothing new....maybe you remember the pounds slide prior to us leaving the ERM.

I agree with you that many things i.e. complications have as you say come to light since the referendum. Things which the Remain group could have used in their campaign but they were very complacent and couldnt be arsed as they couldn't imagine defeat.

But as the great man said ...and the world turns.

Frank Yang posted:

Most of the people who voted in favor of Brexit are low skilled ones, 

Thanks Frank for your contribution, that's not condesending at all. You could have also added unemployed and borderline iliterate to round off the insult.